Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race? (original) (raw)

This page is no longer being updated and primaries are delayed because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

Jump to: Overview Polls Campaign Money News Coverage

Current State of the Race

† Campaign finance data through Jan. 31.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.
Delegate data from The Associated Press as of March 20.

Here’s the latest.

The Democratic race is not officially over, but in every other way the contest has been resolved. Joseph R. Biden Jr. has taken an enormous lead over Bernie Sanders in national polls. The former vice president has amassed hundreds more delegates than the senator from Vermont, building an advantage that is all but insurmountable. The only other candidate who was still running, Tulsi Gabbard, dropped out and endorsed Mr. Biden.

Mr. Sanders may take days or weeks — even months — to concede defeat. But even his close allies now acknowledge that he has no realistic shot of overtaking Mr. Biden. After losing the Florida, Illinois and Arizona primaries, Mr. Sanders was assessing the future of his campaign, his campaign manager said, a step that often begins the process of winding down a candidacy.

There are a few reasons for continued uncertainty: The coronavirus outbreak has upended the remainder of the primary calendar, causing states to delay elections well into the spring for reasons of public health. Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders have stopped holding campaign events, and Mr. Sanders has been spending time in Washington as the Senate crafts emergency legislation to address the outbreak. In such a chaotic environment, it is impossible to completely rule out some major shift brought on by entirely unforeseeable events.

But based on all the information we have now, and everything we can anticipate about the remainder of the primary process, Mr. Biden is an almost prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

His dominance over Mr. Sanders was built mainly on the strengths Mr. Biden had all along: an image of seasoned experience, a reputation for empathy and decency in the eyes of many Democrats, and a powerful base of support among older voters, moderates and, most of all, African-Americans. As the race advanced and other candidates withdrew, Mr. Biden created an even broader coalition by winning over larger numbers of college-educated white voters and liberal women.

A significant bloc of Democrats remains aligned with Mr. Sanders, even in his beleaguered present state — perhaps about a third of the party, according to our national polling average. His most loyal supporters are young people and ideological progressives, as well as Latino voters in many parts of the country.

In the coming months, one of the great questions of the 2020 race may be whether Mr. Biden can manage to win over those people and mobilize them for the general election — and how quickly Mr. Sanders might be persuaded to join forces and help.

— Alexander Burns

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that unfolds in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

National Polling Average

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On March 20 in previous election cycles ...

Source: RealClearPolitics

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. See full fund-raising numbers from January 2020 here »

Current numbers are as of the Jan. 31 filing deadline. The next filing deadline is March 20.·Source: Federal Election Commission

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions Since 2019

Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.·Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project.

Follow Our Coverage

Key Dates