Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling : Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (original) (raw)

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

44

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6

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1110

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1126

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June 1983

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One reason that people continue to gamble despite persistent failure may be that gamblers evaluate outcomes in a biased manner. Specifically, gamblers may tend to accept wins at face value but explain away or discount losses. Exp I tested this hypothesis by recording 28 undergraduates' explanations of the outcomes of their bets on professional football games. Results support the hypothesis: Ss spent more time explaining their losses than their wins. A content analysis of these explanations revealed that Ss tended to discount their losses but “bolster” their wins. Ss also remembered their losses better during a recall test 3 wks later. Exps II and III, with 113 Ss, extended this analysis by demonstrating that a manipulation of the salience or existence of a critical “fluke” play in a sporting event had a greater impact on the subsequent expectations of those who had bet on the losing team than of those who had bet on the winning team. (48 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved)