pundits – Techdirt (original) (raw)

Everything Pundits Are Getting Wrong About This Current Moment In Content Moderation

from the pay-attention dept

Since Twitter and Facebook banned Donald Trump and began ?purging? QAnon conspiracists, a segment of the chattering class has been making all sorts of wild proclamations about this ?precedent-setting? event. As such, I thought I?d set the record straight.

1. “Deplatforming Trump sets a precedent”

That says:

Deplatforming Donald Trump, a sitting US president, sets a dangerous precedent.

It has less to do with his views and more to do with intolerance for a differing point. Ironically, those who claim to champion free speech are celebrating.

Big tech firms are now the new oligarchs.

First of all, the only “precedent” set here is that this is indeed the first time a sitting US president has been deplatformed by a tech company. I suppose that if your entire worldview is what happens in the United States, you might be surprised. But when you look outside that narrow lens, you would see that Facebook has booted off Lebanese politicians, Burmese generals, and even other right-wing US politicians…nevermind the millions of others who have been booted by these platforms, often without cause, often while engaging in protected speech under any definition.

2020 alone saw the (wrongful, even in light of platform policies) deplatforming of hundreds, perhaps thousands of people using terms related to Iran (including a Los Angeles-based crafter’s “Persian dolls” by Etsy) in an overzealous effort by companies to comply with sanctions, the booting of Palestinian speakers from Zoom on incorrectly-analyzed legal grounds, the deplatforming by Twitter of dozens of leftist Jews and Palestinians for clapping back at harassers, and so much more.

2. “This is the biggest online purge in history!”

That says:

I?ve lost over 15,000 followers today – insane how many accounts are getting terminated in the largest online purge in history

Twitter has been purging accounts of QAnon conspiracists and other right-wing accounts over the past week or more. Many of these accounts engage in dangerous rhetoric, including encouragement of violent insurrection against a democratically elected government. It is indeed interesting, particularly when one compares it to the company’s inaction against similar rhetoric in India and elsewhere. But what it isn’t is the “largest online purge in history”?not by a long shot. I would suggest that that occurred two years ago, when Twitter kicked off more than a million alleged ISIS accounts with zero transparency and the “freeze peach” galaxy brains didn’t blink.

3. “AWS kicking Parler off its servers is a step too far/is unprecedented/marks new territory in the digital rights debate”

That says:

Companies like Amazon should either get out of the hosting business, or remain agnostic about what their customers use their services for. As a very long term user, all the way back to the beginning of S3, their move today is disturbing and unacceptable.

To be completely fair, I am of the belief that infrastructure companies play a different role than platforms designed to host user speech/user-generated content, and that decisions like this should not be taken lightly. But let’s not pretend it hasn’t happened before (to be fair, Dave Winer is not doing that, and he is quite aware of the company’s history on these matters). In 2010, AWS famously booted WikiLeaks after no more than concern from the State Department?that is, WikiLeaks hadn’t been charged with anything?kicking off a series of deplatformings of the group. But WikiLeaks is not the only example here: Sanctions?or at least some legal interpretations of them?have meant that ordinary folks from countries like Iran can’t use AWS freely either. Last January saw a massive purge of Iranian users from various platforms, likely instigated by the Department of Treasury (though thus far, we have no proof of that). Some might suggest that this is a legal requirement of Amazon, but as GitHub demonstrated this week, there are indeed workarounds for companies that care enough about internet freedom.

4. “This is communism!”

Uh no, this is capitalism. Platforms have this much power because unbridled American capitalism is what y’all wanted. It is also not “Orwellian,” I can assure you.

5. “The Google Play store/Apple store booting Parler sets new precedent.”

Uh actually, no it doesn’t. Does anyone remember that Apple forced Tumblr’s hand hardly two years ago by threatening to kick it out of the App store if it didn’t do something about the child sexual abuse imagery it was unknowingly hosting, resulting in a near-total ban on nudity and sexual content on the site? Anyone?

6. “Twitter won’t let you hashtag #1984”

That says:

Twitter won?t let you hashtag #1984, a dystopian novel about an evil Big Tech government that spies on everyone, censors and manipulates speech, punishes wrong-thought, and tortures dissidents for sport.

There?s Orwellian, and then there?s banning references to Orwell Orwellian.

Twitter has never allowed number-based hashtags, next?

Got more examples? Shoot them to me on Twitter.

Republished with permission from Jillian C. York’s website.

Filed Under: content moderation, deplatforming, donald trump, precedent, pundits

Why The Press Is Getting The Wrong Message Out Of The 'Nate Silver Walloped The Pundits' Story

from the small-sample-sizes dept

Let me start off by saying that I’ve been a longterm Nate Silver fan, back before he was the “fivethirtyeight” guy, and when he was just some random guy whose statistical models were helping my fantasy baseball team kick ass. And let me follow that up by noting that even more than being a Nate Silver fan, I’m a huge fan of statistics in general. I think that statistics should be a required class in school and that a combination of statistics and economics (the two go hand in hand) literacy (or lack thereof) is a major problem today, leading to numerous bad policy decisions. Finally, I’ve never been a fan (at all) of political punditry that focuses on the “horse race” aspect of politics. So, given all that, it has certainly been fun to follow the secondary storyline from last night — which is how Nate Silver and his statistical genius “crushed” the pundits in predicting the election — to the point that every single major press “pundit” was flat out wrong, and it looked like Silver had a perfect crystal ball. And, given how much Silver was attacked for being a “stats guy,” (or for being biased, rather than neutral) you can certainly understand why it’s tempting to wish he’d do something like Whitney McNamara’s mock blog post:

In many ways, I agree that yesterday was the “moneyball moment” in politics, in which the prognosticators were shown to be faulty, while the number crunchers were shown to be accurate. Hell, it was a much stronger example than the Moneyball case in baseball, which never had a “victory” quite as clearly aligned with the numbers.

Of course, if you look at what’s happened to baseball since “Moneyball” and the success of the first statistical analysis guys, it should be a reminder that statistical prognostication is still about the probabilities — and not about true predictions. And this is where the “suddenly-in-awe” pundits are still getting confused. They seem to think that Silver or other statistical modelers suddenly have a magic crystal ball with which they can predict the future. But probabilities and predictions are different, and Silver himself would likely admit (and, actually, did admit) that when you’re dealing in probabilities, you’re still going to be completely wrong some percentage of the time (he can even tell you what percentage of the time!) Even if the probabilities show a 90% likelihood that a certain event will happen, it still means that one time out of 10, you’re going to be wrong.

Unfortunately, our brains don’t deal that well with probabilities. We don’t think in probabilities. Because we’re dealing with a (mostly) binary situation, we assume that as soon as the probabilities tilt in our favor, it means that a “win” is somehow assured, and mentally, the probabilities turn into a prediction. It’s very, very difficult for our brains not to think that way.

So I’m thrilled to see statistical analysis “win” over the moronic pundit-class who thinks that “storylines” or “momentum” (or, um, the ultimate in believing in anecdotes over data, “my friends see more yard signs” for one candidate) are valid methods for prognosticating. But it seems that the press, by going on to insist that Silver and his ilk are the new magic prognosticators, are missing the point just as much as those who thought the election could be predicted by political pundits.

Statistics is a tool for highlighting the probabilities. I’m sure that Nate Silver clones are going to be appearing a lot more on TV during the next major election cycles — and I think that’s a step forward. But now it seems like some people are expecting Silver and other stats guys to be right every time. And that’s going to lead to backlash, just as the “failure” of Moneyball-type analysis to always get it exactly right resulted in some backlash in baseball. There will be data analysis in future election cycles — likely from Silver himself — that is wrong. That’s the nature of probabilities. It will happen. And, unfortunately, people will then suddenly go back to arguing the opposite: that the stats geeks were “wrong.”

But, as they say in the stats world, these are small sample size issues. Believing that statistical analysis is a perfect tool for predictions based on a single election is almost (though not quite) as weak as some of the traditional political punditry methods for predictions.

Hopefully, as with baseball, after a few years, the whole idea that these are entirely separate worlds will melt away. In baseball, every team now uses detailed statistical analysis as a tool, and most seem to understand that it suggests probabilities that help them find underexploited opportunities. But no one relies on it as a crystal ball that predicts the absolute future. Hopefully we’ll reach that same sort of equilibrium in political analysis as well.

Filed Under: elections, moneyball, nate silver, politics, predictions, press, probability, pundits, statistics