scenarios – Techdirt (original) (raw)

Copia Gaming Hour: An Experiment In Getting Together (Virtually) To Play With The Future

from the what-do-you-think? dept

A few weeks ago, we ran a little experiment, with our first ever Copia Gaming Hour. We brought together (virtually) a group of people to test run a fun future scenario planning game we created called Hindsight 2030. The game involved players dividing up into teams, having to pick a “target” 2030 headline (each table had a list of 3 to choose from out of a giant list we created), and then create a narrative through five headlines to explain how we reached that 2030 headline. For example, the demo version we created used the following headline:

Massive lawsuit threatens Pirate Party?s satellite broadband network

And the demo example of the headlines we created leading up to that headline was:

If you can’t read those, the headlines read:

2021: Copyright bill compromises DNS system, adds harsh new penalties for file-sharers

2023: Can copyright infringement disqualify you from UBI? The courts are split

2025: Pirate Party wins first US victories on promises of open internet revival

2027: Invalidation of SpaceX patents ushers in age of hobbyist nano-satellites

2029: SatTorrent protocol sparks panic in Hollywood, author still a mystery

2030: Massive lawsuit threatens Pirate Party?s satellite broadband network

Each team then also had to create an “epilogue” headline for some event happening after 2030 (we left it open to each team to come up with how far in the future that would be). After teams presented their five headlines leading up to their target, we had everyone in the audience take guesses on what the epilogue headline would be — which resulted in some pretty hilarious suggestions. For our sample one we had:

2033: Satellite-killer missiles disrupt Pirate Party network, scientists fear collision cascade

This whole thing was an experiment in general about whether or not we could create (1) some quick and easy group games for smart people around topics of interest to us, (2) whether or not people would like them, (3) whether or not the whole process would work, and (4) whether it could be a fun way to get together with people virtually that wasn’t yet another “Zoom Happy Hour.” As some of you know, over the last few years we (in partnership with Randy Lubin from Leveraged Play) been creating a variety of different games to explain the present or explore the future — including our big online disinformation election simulation game. But most of those are very involved and complex. We wanted to create a more informal and casual environment to test out some ideas and to have some fun on a Friday afternoon.

Given that this first one was a clear success, we’re planning to do more of these. The first one was done entirely by invite to a small group of people we knew. Since this is still very experimental, we’re not yet ready to open the doors completely to the public on this, but if you do want to be considered for the invite list to future games, we’ve now set up a quick form to register your interest. This is not a guarantee that you will be invited to future gaming hours — as we may still experiment with the setup, the number of attendees, and such — and some of it may depend on what it is we’re looking to test with each game. However, if you want to be on the list of potential invitees, please fill out the form.

Filed Under: copia, future, games, scenario planning, scenarios
Companies: copia, leveraged play

And What Would Happen If Commercial Aviation Was Simply Impossible To Do Profitably?

from the the-impact-could-be-far-reaching dept

I tend to be something of an innovation optimist, believing that most resource constraint problems are eventually solved through ingenuity and innovation, but there can be some hiccups in the process along the way. Here’s an article looking at the airline industry, and trying to spin some scenarios of what would happen if it simply turns out that the commercial airline business is completely unsupportable. Obviously, with fuel costs so high, it’s become more and more difficult to keep airlines running (and it was never all that easy back when fuel costs were cheap). However, people seem to take for granted what cheap and readily available air travel allows. It touches on so many different businesses that it’s hard to fathom how deep the eventual impact would be if air travel needs to be significantly curtailed in the future.

It’s not just the obvious industries: airlines, tourism, etc. It would impact things like e-commerce companies that rely on cheap shipping. It would impact conferences. It could impact all sorts of industries when sales people can’t as easily go visit customers. The more you think about it, the more industries you can find hurt by a decline in the availability of cheap air travel. Of course, there are other industries that would benefit as well, such as telecom companies and video conferencing firms.

Still, the optimist in me just sees the scenario as an opportunity for innovation. In fact, all of those other industries that would be hurt by a reduction in air travel would have it in their own best interests to help fund research and development into alternatives and improvements, so the funding for such innovation could come from many, many different places. But if it takes a while to figure out the problem — and the airlines keep screwing things up themselves, there may be a rather unpleasant interim while everything shakes out.

Filed Under: aviation, commercial airlines, scenarios