Spencer Livermore: Labour's road to recovery (original) (raw)

Just like Sarah Palin, David Cameron would like to be seen as something of a novelty. Yet the strategy he is following is lifted from the US, Sweden, New Zealand and Canada. Rightwing parties there have adapted to the challenge posed by the modernised centre-left, coopting the language of their rivals while retaining traditional rightwing policies.

In 1997, New Labour triumphed by recognising the extent to which the electoral landscape had changed. To recover, New Labour must now respond again. Constructing such a response will require two elements: first, an understanding and explicit recognition of the Conservative party's new approach; and second, an increase in strategic ambition to make the Conservatives rather than Labour the focus of a campaign.

An effective strategy for Labour would start with an honest assessment of where the opponent is presently positioned. This would then look ahead to where Labour needs them to be positioned come the next election, and a series of messages would be designed that depositions them accordingly.

Too often when faced with difficulties, political parties retreat to familiar strategies of the past. But simply to continue to attack the Conservatives on the same grounds as in the past two elections risks making Labour sound shrill, gaining little traction.

Labour's response should be to honestly acknowledge Cameron's success: he has found a language and a tone that has allowed him to be heard by the people of Britain; he is asking questions that echo and reflect the concerns of many across the country; he has an ability to talk to those who are not traditional Conservatives in a way they can relate to, about issues that concern them; and he can communicate in a style that reminds many of Tony Blair.

Labour would be wrong to underestimate the appeal of these changes. But equally it should not overestimate the extent to which in truth Cameron is a new Conservative.

Instead, Labour should increase its strategic ambition. Current orthodoxy says Labour must turn the next election from a referendum on itself into a choice between the two parties. But starting from where the party is now, that will not be enough. A far bolder goal is required: we must make the next election a referendum on Cameron's Conservative party.

Many perceive electoral strategy to be the offer of competing answers to the same question. In fact, electoral success usually goes to the party which most effectively defines the question voters are asking on polling day. Labour must ensure that the issue at the next election is whether the Tories have changed enough to be trusted.

In 1992 the Tories achieved this to devastating effect, making Labour the issue, not themselves. But they could not do so again in 1997 because they made a strategic error: conceding Labour had changed, and that New Labour was a reality. Labour must not make that same error now.

The fact is, the Conservative party remains fundamentally unreformed. Unlike Blair, Cameron has not taken on his party and has he not changed it. Labour's election victory in 1997 was the culmination of a process, begun by Neil Kinnock, to modernise its view of Britain and update its policies.

In contrast, the modernity of Cameron's language has not been matched by reform of previously held policy positions. Cameron has not changed the Conservative party's view of the role of the state, or its view of public spending. Even during this time of global economic uncertainty, long-held doctrine continues to dictate Conservative party policy: just this week shadow chancellor George Osborne refused to say whether he would match Labour's plans for the next spending review period.

In order to obscure this lack of fundamental change, Cameron has adopted a strategy of concealment. He will try to get as close as possible to the next election with as few policies as possible. In his language he seeks to hug Labour in order to smother differences and deny Gordon Brown the ability to define himself against his opponent. This has made life difficult for the prime minister.

It will be very tempting for Labour to taunt the Conservative party for not knowing what it stands for. That would be a mistake. Labour must with confidence make the case that the Conservatives remain unreformed, that they remain a threat to Britain's families, their future prosperity and their public services. Every message must be in service of communicating that threat. To say the Conservatives have no policies fails that discipline - there is no threat from the Conservatives doing nothing.

David Cameron has achieved much, but he has not fundamentally changed the Conservative party. His intentions are the same as his predecessors. He has not changed enough to win the trust of the British people at the next election - but it is up to Labour to make that case.

· Spencer Livermore was a senior strategy adviser to Gordon Brown, 1998 to 2008