Swine flu response costing £1.2bn 'proportionate' (original) (raw)

The government's response to the swine flu pandemic was on the whole "proportionate and effective", an independent review said yesterday, but there are still lessons to be learned.

Dame Deidre Hine, who spent three months interviewing the main players and scrutinising the strategy adopted by the devolved administrations, said that after more than 800,000 cases of swine flu across the UK and 457 deaths, including those of children and pregnant women, it would be wrong to suggest there was an over-reaction.

"The response that it was all nothing I think is falliacious," she said at a press conference to launch the review this morning.

But among the lessons that could be learned, she said, was that the Department of Health should have negotiated a "break clause" in its contract with drug company GlaxoSmithKline for supplying a pandemic vaccine that, in the end, was needed only in relatively small quantities.

"There was significant flexibility in the amount the UK could purchase, ranging from 30 million doses to 132 million doses – enough to vaccinate the whole UK population with two doses. There was, however, less flexibility once contracts had been signed, with Baxter Healthcare agreeing a break clause but GSK not being willing to do so."

The review put the total cost of the pandemic at £1.2 billion, taking into account both the preparedness and response phases. The bulk of that – around £1 billion, went on pharmaceuticals, which included the antiviral drug Tamiflu, the vcacine and antibiotics.

In a situation of unpredicabilty, as the arrival of this flu virus was, there is a tendency, said Dame Deidre, "to assume the worst case scenario and resource the response accordingly". But in her review she suggested there is an alternative approach, "which is to take a view on the most likely outcome, while monitoring events closely and changing tack as necessary.

"Ministers should be invited to make a conscious choice as to which approach to adopt."

Flexible planning was all important, she said. The pandemic did not spread evenly across the country, but concentrated in specific places. It also attacked young children and pregnant women – and critical care beds for children came under severe pressure at one time.