Wimbledon 2023 betting preview, odds and predictions... (original) (raw)
THE white clothing, the ivory-clad walls of Centre Court and the pristine condition of the All England Club’s grounds are just three factors which help make up arguably the world’s greatest tennis tournament, Wimbledon, which gets underway on July 3.
It’s simply a must-see event for tennis fans – and much-anticipated by tennis bettors too. During the season, only the four Grand Slam tournaments offer up 254 singles matches on which to bet. And, of course, the world’s very best players will be in attendance for this feast of tennis.
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Will there be surprise finalists, like Nick Kyrgios and Elena Rybakina last year? Maybe there could be another big British run from Cameron Norrie, although sadly Emma Raducanu misses out through injury this time. Here’s our tournament betting preview, which includes the latest Wimbledon betting odds, best betting tips and loads of other key info for punters.
Best UK bookies for Wimbledon betting
Why should I bet on Wimbledon?
With the grasscourt requiring a specific skillset that not all players possess, the Wimbledon championships can be a lucrative playground for the savvy punter.
The bookmakers often lean too much on form on other surfaces, rather than grasscourt prowess, so there can be some value match prices out there. In addition, it’s been a good venue for the betting odds favourites over the years, particularly in the men’s singles.
Roger Federer rarely let his backers down when favourite in SW19 and now Novak Djokovic has taken over that mantle. Hopefully, you’ll make money this year with your Wimbledon tennis betting!
Who are the favourites to win this year’s Wimbledon?
Who are the players most likely to win Wimbledon 2023? Let’s take a look, including what the bookmakers think via their Wimbledon odds.
Women’s singles
Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, who have each won a Grand Slam title already this season, are 4/1 joint-favourites, with defending champion Elena Rybakina not far behind in the market at 9/2.
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Men’s singles
Novak Djokovic is odds-on with the sportsbooks and a red-hot favourite at 5/6. Next comes the man he recently replaced as world no 1, US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz (5/1). Daniil Medvedev (7/1) is third favourite.
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Women’s doubles
There are no betting markets on the doubles events yet but when there are, Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova will likely be leading the way. The Czechs are defending champions and have won four of the last six Slams. The American duo of Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff will also be ones to watch, while Hsieh Su-wei and Wang Xinyu will bid to replicate their French Open success.
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Men’s doubles
There are high hopes for a British winner in this draw for the first time since Jonny Marray in 2012 with Neal Skupski (playing with Wesley Koolhof) and Joe Salisbury (with Rajeev Ram) among those expected to go well. However, 2023’s best pair so far are the recent French Open winners, Austin Krajicek and Ivan Dodig. The latter won here in 2015.
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Mixed doubles
The mixed format is rarely played so it’s difficult to know who will enter – perhaps there will be a star scratch pairing like Andy Murray and Serena Williams in 2019. However, of those we know who are likely to team up, Neal Skupski and American Desirae Krawczyk may well be the pair to beat given they have won the last two mixed doubles titles in SW19. The all-American team of Jessica Pegula and Austin Krajicek will also be expected to go well, while Miyu Kato and Tim Puetz were French Open winners recently.
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What are the most popular Wimbledon betting markets?
Let’s now take a look at which popular tennis betting markets you can look to in a bid to turn a profit at Wimbledon 2023.
- Match score bets (set betting) - Predict the match score in sets. For example, Novak Djokovic to beat Rafael Nadal 3-0. Provides bigger prices than the simple match win market.
- Outright match winner bets (match betting) - Put simply, which tennis player will win the match? This is the most popular form of pre-match tennis betting. Several matches can be combined to form a multiple bet, offering larger odds.
- Set score bets - Predict the score of a particular set. For example, you might fancy one of the top seeds to dominate in the early stages of the tournament and therefore back them to win the first set 6-0. Again, some big odds can be claimed.
- Set winner bets - Which player will win a specific set? The first-set winner is usually the most popular with punters able to get with fast starters. Perhaps they fancy an underdog to perform well but not actually win the match. In this instance, backing them to win the opening set might be worthwhile.
- Handicap bets - When the outright match odds are fairly wide apart, this is a good way of betting on a match and getting a juicier price. The favourite is given a ‘handicap’ – basically the underdog gets a head start of a certain number of games (ie 6.5). At the end of the match, the number of games won by each player is determined with the 6.5 then added to the original underdog’s total to determine which player wins the bet. A good way of a getting a bigger price on a match with a heavy favourite. As well as a game handicap, there are often set handicaps too.
- Over/under markets for sets and games - The bookmaker sets a line and you bet either under or over it. For example, the market for the total number of games in a match is set at 39.5. If you think it will de determined in fewer games you bet ‘under’ the line; if you think there will be more than 39.5 games, you bet ‘over’. The same theory is applied to over/under sets markets, while you’ll often also see over/under games markets for a specific set.
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Wimbledon facts and stats
- The so-called ‘Big Four’ of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray have won the last 20 Wimbledon men’s singles titles between them. However, Nadal is injured this year and Federer is now retired.
- Djokovic has won six of the last eight Wimbledon titles, and also six of the last eight Grand Slams he has contested. He will bid to equal Federer’s record of eight titles in SW19 this year.
- Of active male players, Djokovic and Andy Murray have won the most grasscourt titles – both have eight. Next, of those entered into Wimbledon 2023, come Matteo Berrettini and John Isner (4).
- Heading into the grasscourt season, Daniil Medvedev led the ATP Tour for both titles (5) and matches won (39) in 2023. However, he is yet to go beyond the last 16 at Wimbledon.
- Of the world’s top 10 men (post-French Open), only Novak Djokovic has ever played in a Wimbledon semi-final. And he has played in 11 of them.
- Since Serena Williams won the last of her 23 Grand Slam titles in 2017, the 24 majors have been shared out among 15 different players. Of the multiple winners in that period, only Iga Swiatek will be in attendance at Wimbledon.
- Since Steffi Graf retained the title in 1996, only the Williams sisters, Serena and Venus, have successfully defended the Wimbledon ladies’ singles crown.
- World no 1 Iga Swiatek leads the WTA Tour for match wins this season with 35 (and six losses). The Pole and Aryna Sabalenka both have a tour-leading three titles so far in 2023, each winning a Grand Slam.
- Venus Williams will be playing singles at Wimbledon for the 24th time this year – her longer than that of many an umpire! She has won the title five times, reached nine finals, 10 semi-finals and 13 quarter-finals.
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Who has won Wimbledon in recent years?
One man has dominated at Wimbledon over the past decade, but the women’s singles has been much more open. Here’s a look at the recent winners at the All England Club.
Men’s singles Wimbledon winners
- 2022 – Novak Djokovic
- 2021 – Novak Djokovic
- 2020 – Not held (COVID-19 pandemic)
- 2019 – Novak Djokovic
- 2018 – Novak Djokovic
- 2017 – Roger Federer
- 2016 – Andy Murray
- 2015 – Novak Djokovic
- 2014 – Novak Djokovic
- 2013 – Andy Murray
- 2012 – Roger Federer
Women’s singles Wimbledon winners
- 2022 – Elena Rybakina
- 2021 – Ashleigh Barty
- 2020 – Not held (COVID-19 pandemic)
- 2019 – Simona Halep
- 2018 – Angelique Kerber
- 2017 – Garbine Muguruza
- 2016 – Serena Williams
- 2015 – Serena Williams
- 2014 – Petra Kvitova
- 2013 – Marion Bartoli
- 2012 – Serena Williams
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What were the most important Wimbledon matchups in recent history?
Some matches mean more. Here’s a look at some Wimbledon classics which have lingered in the memory – and left a lasting legacy.
Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer (2008 final)
For many, the greatest tennis match ever played. Federer came from two sets down to level the contest after saving the championship point in a fourth-set tie-break which will live long in the memory. Yet Nadal steeled himself and, after rain delays, eventually clinched the final set 9-7 in the Centre Court gloom well past 9pm. Nadal’s victory effectively ended Federer’s five-year dominance of the sport – within weeks he had usurped him as world number one.
Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer (2019 final)
Another Wimbledon classic – and again Federer ended up on the losing side in agonising fashion. Seeking a 21st Grand Slam title, the Swiss fought tooth and nail to take the match to a final set which he led 8-7 40-15, the trophy on his racket. However, two championship points came and went before he lost a deciding-set tie-break which was then played at 12-12, Djokovic producing his trademark ability to cut out any errors in the breaker. It would be Federer’s last appearance in a Grand Slam final.
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Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic (2013 final)
The match which ended the host nation’s 77-year wait for a Wimbledon men’s singles champion. Played in sweltering heat, Djokovic looked jaded from his near-five-hour semi-final with Juan Martin del Potro with Murray always able to hold the Serb at bay and breaking his serve seven times. The match is probably best remembered for Murray’s struggle to serve out his straight-sets win. He blew a 40-0 lead before saving break points and then finally clinching a famous victory.
Serena Williams v Simona Halep (2019 final)
Wimbledon was Serena Williams’ second home and, having claimed her 23rd Grand Slam title in Australia in 2017, many expected SW19 to be the scene of her record-equalling 24th. Having lost the 2018 Wimbledon final, Williams was a firm favourite to beat Halep a year later but was crushed in less than an hour – 6-2 6-2 the score - with the American making too many errors and Halep flawless. Slam 24 would never arrive.
John Isner v Kevin Anderson (2018 semi-final)
Not a match you’ll remember for a particular shot – other than both players’ huge serve – but one which left a significant legacy. Played out to 26-24 in the fifth set and lasting more than six and a half hours, it forced the second semi into a second day. Organisers quickly decided that it couldn’t happen again with Wimbledon introducing a final-set tie-break at 12-12 for the following championship. All four Grand Slam tournaments now play a match tie-break at 6-6 in the decider.
Which bookies offer the best Wimbledon betting odds?
So, where to go to place your Wimbledon bet? Here are our choices.
BetUK - Winner
This firm has its odds provided by the Kambi sportsbook which is well known for being prepared to offer the best price on many outcomes. A look at the ante-post outright markets proves this. When the matches get underway, a wide range of pre-match and in-play markets will also be offered.
bet365 - Runner-up
One of the biggest bookmakers in the business, bet365 also regularly offer competitive prices. Their match betting is also unrivalled in terms of the range of markets with bets such as player aces and double faults priced up from an early stage of the tournament, unlike many of their rivals.
Coral - Honourable mention
Fewer top prices but another firm with an excellent range of markets. Also well known for going up early with their prices – they won’t wait to see what other firms do.
How many competitors are there in each Wimbledon category?
Both the men’s and ladies’ singles draws are made up of 128 players, so the champion needs to win seven rounds in total.
The men’s and ladies’ doubles have 64 pairs each, meaning six matches have to be won. One notable change this year is that the men’s doubles will be played in the best-of-three-sets format, rather than best-of-five.
The mixed doubles is a 32-pair draw.
Is Wimbledon the most important Grand Slam tournament?
Clearly, this is subjective but it’s fair to say that many players have this tournament at the top of their list. This is largely due to its long-standing traditions and unique atmosphere. It is also well known for looking after its players.
Others, however, will rank it lower. For example, most South Americans are brought up playing on clay and therefore their most important event is the French Open, played at Roland Garros in Paris.
When is Wimbledon happening in 2023?
Wimbledon 2023 will begin on Monday, July 3 and finish on Sunday, July 16.
While there are some changes towards the end of the tournament, the first ball will be struck each day at 11am on the outside courts, 1pm on Court One and 1.30pm on Centre Court. It can continue until 11pm under the lights of the two main showcourts, if necessary.
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Where can I watch Wimbledon 2023?
The BBC has the TV rights for live coverage in the UK, although long-standing anchor Sue Barker will not be presenting this year – Clare Balding takes the reins.
As well as showing matches on their main two channels, coverage of every court will be available via BBC iPlayer.
Our Wimbledon betting strategies and tips
It’s important not to take a scattergun approach to tennis betting. Here are a few things worth thinking about before placing your Wimbledon bets.
- Compare odds value between bookies – Loyalty can be a good thing but not always when it comes to betting. Make sure you open several accounts so you can get the best price on a bet. Why take 4/1 when 5/1 is on offer elsewhere?
- Set limits beforehand – Have a betting bank which you can afford to lose and stick to it. Don’t go chasing any losses by putting more money in.
- Get familiar with different play styles – In short, get to know the players. Those with a big serve will be particularly hard to break on the grasscourts. Should you therefore back a tie-break? Maybe not if they are playing one of the game’s great returners. There are plenty of websites with relevant data to help you out on this front, including Tennis Abstract, plus the official ATP and WTA sites.
- Understand grasscourt tennis – Thirty years ago there was a huge difference between playing tennis on the slow clay and the fast grass. These days that gap has narrowed, although don’t think that a big serve is no longer a big weapon on this surface – time to reference that Isner v Anderson semi-final of 2018 again (see above). There are also plenty of players who really struggle on the grass, hardly a surprise given it’s played on only five weeks a year. For example, those who have a game style which includes sliding into shots, such as Carlos Alcaraz, will do well to hold their footing, especially when the courts are lush in the first week.
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