Who Will Get a Best Picture Oscar Nomination in 2026? (original) (raw)

The Race for Best Picture Is Up in the Air

Spots in the Oscars’ biggest category are still up for grabs.Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos: Everett Collection (Scott Garfield/Warner Bros., Focus Features), Warner Bros.

It’s pencils-down time for Oscar season. As of 5 p.m. Pacific Time Friday, the window for the Academy’s nominations voting is closed. Contenders can relax, send their tuxedos out for dry-cleaning, and finally post all the bad Tweets they’ve been saving up since September. While the Golden Globes and guild announcements have helped clarify the field in many major categories, there’s still one race that seems totally up in the air, and it’s the biggest one of them all: Best Picture.

Five films make up our top tier of Oscar contenders, and they’re the same five that nabbed nominations in SAG’s Best Ensemble and the Directors Guild’s Best Feature categories: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Sinners. That kind of industry support indicates all five are locked in for Best Picture. The Norwegian drama Sentimental Value totally blanked at SAG but rebounded by getting in at the Producers Guild’s nominations — not an easy feat for an art-house film that has grossed less than $5 million domestically — and received another boost when Stellan Skarsgård won Best Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes. With ten seats in Best Picture, I think these Scandinavians are safe.

That leaves four open spots. By my estimation, there are seven films with plausible cases for a Best Picture nod. That does not include two movies I think have dropped out since we did a similar exercise a few weeks ago: Wicked: For Good, whose negative reviews appear to have finally caught up to it, and the Spanish entry Sirāt, which sits behind a crowded backlog of international titles. As we were reminded at the Guilds, they can’t all make it in.

Where else might it be nominated? Definitely: International Film. Probably: Director, Original Screenplay.

Reasons to be cheerful: The Palme d’Or winner has received nearly unanimous acclaim since premiering at Cannes in May, and tastemakers like the Gotham Awards and the New York and Los Angeles critics’ groups spent the winter piling the hosannas on director Jafar Panahi. The film is intricately tied to Panahi’s personal narrative: A moral drama about former political prisoners debating issues of justice and revenge, Accident marks the Iranian auteur’s first film since being freed from house arrest. Having been shot in secret, it has since earned him another prison term for counterrevolutionary activities. (Panahi has said that he will return to Iran to serve out his sentence.) The film’s dissident themes have made it a timely watch for Americans fearful about their own country’s slide into authoritarianism, and as demonstrations spring up across Iran, Accident could not feel more of-the-moment.

Reasons to be fearful: The very fact that It Was Just an Accident is showing up on this list is cause for concern: For much of the season, Panahi’s film was considered the de facto International Film front-runner, a position that these days essentially brings with it an automatic Best Picture berth. But just as Accident supplanted Sentimental Value on the foreign-film throne, it now could be in danger of being usurped by the next film on this list, which has its own real-world relevance. Two international films getting into Best Picture feels plausible. Three would be unprecedented, and no one is quite sure how Neon’s tangle of international contenders will shake out. Though Panahi supplies plenty of star power, the film’s cast of unknowns means that its campaign is reliant on him for recognition across the ballot. In this global game of musical chairs, Accident could find itself the odd one out.

Photo: Neon/Everett Collection

Where else might it be nominated? Definitely: International Film. Probably: Actor. Possibly: Director, Original Screenplay, Casting.

Reasons to be cheerful: Besides maybe OBAA and Hamnet, no contender had a better night at the Golden Globes than The Secret Agent. The Brazilian entry won Best Actor in a Drama for star Wagner Moura, then followed it up with an unexpected victory over It Was Just an Accident in the Globes’ foreign-language film category. Does that make it the new International Film frontrunner? As with Accident, the movie’s depiction of life under Brazil’s military dictatorship — as the opening title dubs it, “a time of great mischief” — is resonating with the Academy’s traumatized liberals, and the Trump administration’s little excursion into Venezuela has only increased the salience of South American politics to these voters. Furthermore, anchoring the awards campaign around Moura’s performance could make The Secret Agent an easier sell than its Iranian stablemate.

Reasons to be fearful: Moura’s acceptance speech at the Globes was his last chance to make a big impression, since he missed the cut at SAG’s Actor Awards and the BAFTA longlists. It’s worth noting, too, that Brazilian films tend to have a home-field advantage at the Globes, as voters from the South American country make up the group’s largest voting bloc by nationality. While last year’s Brazilian entry,I’m Still Here, built on its Globes success at the Oscars, there’s no guarantee the same will hold true for The Secret Agent.

Where else might it be nominated? Probably: Actress, Adapted Screenplay. Possibly: Actor, Cinematography, Original Score.

Reasons to be cheerful: As with many of this year’s Venice titles, Bugonia was damned with faint praise upon its arrival on the Lido. Critics’ groups largely ignored it. But now that the industry is weighing in, Bugonia once again looks to have found its footing: Stars Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons both made it in at SAG and the BAFTA longlists, and Yorgos Lanthimos’s film was a surprise entry at the Producers Guild nominations. Like Lanthimos, Stone and Plemons are familiar faces to Oscar voters, and the film’s two-hander nature puts their performances at the forefront — catnip for actors, the Academy’s largest branch.

Reasons to be fearful: Familiarity can be a double-edged sword. As the fourth feature collaboration between Lanthimos and Stone, this particular deadpan dark comedy may suffer in comparison to its predecessors.While most viewers agree Bugonia is more Oscar-friendly than Kinds of Kindness, few would put it up alongside The Favourite and Poor Things. Despite Focus emphasizing Stone’s Nosferatu look in its campaign, the film didn’t make the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist. If even this cut didn’t have enough buzz, are we sure the film as a whole does?

Where else might it be nominated? Probably: Adapted Screenplay. Possibly: Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song.

Reasons to be cheerful: Clint Bentley’s film bowed at Sundance to numerous “best of the fest” accolades, and 12 months later, it’s still one of the most acclaimed movies of the year. Though the film didn’t crack the top five at guilds like SAG and the DGA, most precursors that nominate ten titles, as the Academy does, have found room for it. The Oscar shortlists, too, were quite kind. It surely helps that Train Dreams has Netflix’s riches behind it: Though critics grumbled that its expansive visuals deserved to be seen on the big screen, the streamer’s largesse has ensured this quiet little film didn’t get lost in the awards-season shuffle.

Reasons to be fearful: As the Academy’s membership grows ever more international, homegrown indies face a higher barrier to recognition than in decades past. Remember that, last year, the two biggest Best Picture misses were A Real Pain and Sing Sing, the latter of which was made by the same team as Train Dreams. In retrospect, missing a Best Drama spot at the Globes, which have a similarly international focus, could be telling. And you’d liked to have seen star Joel Edgerton show up in a few more Best Actor lineups. As of now, his quiet, inward performance appears to have lost out to Ethan Hawke’s showier turn inBlue Moon.

Photo: Warner Bros./Everett Collection

Where else might it be nominated? Probably: Visual Effects, Sound. Possibly: Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song.

Reasons to be cheerful: Crafts — they matter too! Even though we don’t pay as much attention to the below-the-line branches, their members’ votes count just as much as everyone else’s, and what they’ve been telling us is that they consider the racing blockbuster an across-the-board contender: It’s been honored not just by the producers and visual-effects guilds, but also by the casting directors and costume designers. As films like Ford v Ferrari and Top Gun: Maverick have shown us, there’s plenty of precedent for a craft-forward player sneaking into Best Picture, and F1 just so happens to feature a similar plot as the former and the same director as the latter.

Reasons to be fearful: Narrative isn’t the be-all and end-all of the awards race, but compare F1 to those earlier Best Picture nominees and you may find it lacking. Ford v Ferrariwas a metaphor for making art in the studio system. Top Gun: Maverickcould boast that it saved Hollywood. F1, like the cars it concerns, is merely a relentlessly optimized star vehicle. Will that be enough?

Where else might it be nominated? Probably: Supporting Actress. Possibly: Original Screenplay, Casting.

Reasons to be cheerful: Zach Cregger’s August hit was one of the year’s most delightful surprises, but it was fair to wonder whether voters would consider it an “awards movie” — or even remember it — once Oscar season rolled around. Expectations were low enough that everything that’s happened since feels like gravy. Amy Madigan has shown up strong in the Best Supporting Actress race, giving Weapons a solid foothold in at least one above-the-line category, and an unexpected nomination from the Producers Guild has pundits wondering whether Cregger’s film is closer to the Best Picture ten than we thought. Imagine how fun it would be to hear “… and _Weapons_” on nomination morning!

Reasons to be fearful: Even in the age of “elevated horror,” genre films still struggle to be taken seriously by the Academy unless, like Get Out or The Substance, they have a clear social message. Besides the horror issue, Weapons may also be hampered by being Warner Bros.’ third priority after OBAA and Sinners. (F1, an Apple film distributed by Warners, has the same problem.)

Photo: 20th Century Studios/Everett Collection

Where else might it be nominated? Definitely: Visual Effects. Probably: Sound. Possibly: Production Design, Original Score, Original Song.

Reasons to be cheerful: It’s grossed over a billion dollars. It’s guaranteed to win the Visual Effects trophy. Precursor voters seem to be really into the Miley Cyrus song. And everything I said about F1 goes double for Fire and Ash. You want crafts? Check out these crafts! *Rides an alien Pterodactyl into battle while firing a rocket-launcher at a space whale.* As Stalin may have said, quantity has a quality all its own.

Reasons to be fearful: There was no reason for the Avatar three-quel to miss out on a nomination from the Producers Guild, the most blockbuster-friendly precursor of them all. Yet the Na’vi were passed over in favor of Weapons and F1. James Cameron may be the master of water, but with Fire and Ash embodying the rule of diminishing returns, he’s still swimming upstream.

Every week between now and January 22, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscars Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Photo: Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features

After reducing the Telluride audience to a weepy mess and winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award, the Tudor tearjerker saw its early Best Picture buzz subsumed by the One Battle steamroller. The Globes gave Chloé Zhao’s film an opening: For one night only, here was a race where OBAA didn’t exist. Hamnet made the most of the opportunity, taking the Best Drama trophy over a tough field, and now feels like the runner-up in the Oscar race. While that may be a moot point (I don’t think OBAA is in any danger of losing), a consolation prize is still a prize.

Photo: Warner Bros./Everett Collection

As some pundits feared, Globes voters used their Box Office Achievement award as cover for not handing Sinners a major trophy. Adding insult to injury, the film’s only other win, Best Score, took place during a commercial break. (Gotta save room for those Polymarket predictions, I guess.) Disrespecting a Black-led film is nothing new for the Golden Globes, but Sunday’s results underscore the fear that the blues blockbuster may turn out to be a crafts-only player on Oscar night.

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

Photo: Jason LaVeris/2013 Jason LaVeris

We’ve reached the point in awards season where left-leaning commentators have started tearing each other apart over Anderson’s perceived politics. (And also, bizarrely, his daughters’ precise racial makeup.) Chalk this up to PTA and his film being so dominant for so long: As often happens around this time of year, people get bored and snippy seeing the same contenders win over and over again. With Anderson taking Best Director and Best Screenplay at the Globes, there are surely more tweetstorms to come.

Photo: Vittorio Zunino Celotto/Getty Images

After being the toast of tastemaker season, the Iranian auteur has hit a snag in the New Year. Industry precursors like the DGA and PGA blanked Accident, and despite a strong showing at the Globe nominations, Panahi ultimately went home empty-handed. The silver lining is that the Academy’s tastes tend to skew more highbrow than the precursors’, so there’s a chance the Palme d’Or winner will enjoy a warmer reception on nomination morning.

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

As Marty Supreme passes OBAA on the box-office charts, everything appears to be lining up for young Chalamet. Just as he put aside December’s hypebeast getups for a more muted awards-season style, he abandoned Marty Mauser’sbraggadocio and struck a modest tone at his Globes and Critics Choice acceptance speeches. Chalamet didn’t attempt this kind of prestige pivot last season, so take it as a sign that both he and A24 are in it to win it. Statheads will tell you that men under 35 rarely win Best Actor, but the movie’s tagline supplies the perfect counter — dream big.

Photo: Warner Bros./Everett Collection

Even on a night when OBAA otherwise dominated, with a voting body that didn’t fall under _Marty Supreme_’s spell (no Director or Supporting Actress nods), DiCaprio still couldn’t beat Chalamet at the Globes. Having been made to wait into his 40s for his long-awaited Oscar, how do you think he feels seeing Timmy seemingly saunter to victory without even a sniff of bison liver?

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Photo: Agata Grzybowska/FOCUS FEATURES

Any fears that Buckley’s iron grip on the Oscar had loosened were put to rest at the Globes. The Best Actress in a Drama winner delivered a charmingly unbothered acceptance speech, while _Hamnet_’s Best Drama victory quieted comparisons to Renée Zellweger’s Judy season. I hope her husband keeps enjoying the free cocktails and canapés.

Over on the Comedy/Musical side of the proceedings, Byrne provided her own winning podium moment, revealing that husband Bobby Cannavale had chosen to attend a reptile convention in New Jersey rather than accompany her to the Globes. (She also poked fun at the light category fraud behind her victory: “I didn’t sing in this movie, guys.”) I predict it’s going to be all Buckley from here on out, but huge credit to Byrne for powering this unconventional dramedy to a surefire Oscar nomination.

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia

Photo: Kasper Tuxen/Neon/Everett Collection

Having lost at Critics’ Choice and been left out at SAG, Skarsgård needed a win at the Golden Globes to maintain his Oscar bona fides. Fortunately, the Globes’ international membership made this favorable territory. He got his podium moment, incorporating references to his “nepo daddy” status and a paean to the theatrical experience — which Sean Baker can tell you is never a bad strategy. (Though kind of rich for a man whose project with Rachel Kemp was going to premiere on Netflix.) Pundits like to say the key to winning Supporting Actor is to play a nice dad; Skarsgård’s just-good-enough dad may be good enough for voters, too.

Another televised precursor, another night where del Toro and co-star Sean Penn seemingly split the OBAA vote. Skarsgård won’t be in the running at SAG’s Actor Awards, but if you had to imagine a voting body that would fall hard for Penn’s up-to-11 performance, it would be the Guild. That’s six weeks away; who knows how many American cities will need to heed the lessons of Sensei Sergio St. Carlos by then. Ocean waves, ocean waves.

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Paul Mescal, Hamnet; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Online, her character may be the most polarizing element of OBAA, but at the Globes Taylor looked every bit the future Oscar winner, commanding the podium with the same gusto she brings to the film’s opening act. We had one week of believing Amy Madigan was the Supporting Actress front-runner, and you can never take that away from us, but Taylor’s Globes win feels like it’s stabilized what has been an unusually chaotic race.

Just this morning, I experimented with bumping Grande out of my predictions for the first time all season in favor of the rapidly rising Odessa A’zion from the even more rapidly rising Marty Supreme. And you know what? It felt right! A tough break for the pop star, who once seemed a threat to take home the trophy, but that’s the way things have gone for the Wicked sequel.

Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

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