Some 44 statehouses are up for grabs on Tuesday. Here’s a guide. (original) (raw)
National politics getting you down? Are you tired of reading about the same old presidential and Senate races?
Good news: Legislatures in 44 states are also up for election this year, and they feature a bushel of nail-biters. Even more important: What happens in these races will reverberate in American politics for years to come.
Though Republicans enjoy a considerable state-level advantage — they control 28 state legislatures, to Democrats’ 20 — a healthy number of chambers are toss-ups. If Republicans have a good night, they’ll fortify their grip on state governments. But if Democrats outperform expectations, they could cut into the GOP’s 770-seat lead in state legislative seats nationally — and might even break some supermajorities in Republican strongholds.
Why does this matter? Because states are where much of today’s political action happens. Consider some of the top hot-button political issues of the past few years. Congress rarely passes bills on any of these topics, but state legislatures have enacted a flood of laws on them:
Since 2022, 13 states have enacted a total abortion ban. Sixteen states have passed anti-trans bills just this year. And six states have enacted 2024 identification laws, four making it easier to vote and two making it harder.
As in past election years, roughly one-third of all state legislative seats are uncontested by major parties this year. Even so, an enormous amount is at stake in state chambers on Election Day, and not just in the swing states.
Here are the must-watch contests this year:
Tense trifectas
In these states, one party controls the governor’s mansion and both legislative chambers — but could be at risk of losing at least one chamber.
Governor
Lower chamber: House or Assembly
Senate
Supermajority
If Republicans flip just a few seats in either chamber, they will topple the Democrats’ unstable trifecta.
Democrats have a slim majority in the Senate that could flip to GOP control if Republicans win a special election.
Republicans have total control of government, but the entire state’s a toss-up. Will we see a full trifecta flip?
Democrats have a trifecta with comfortable majorities. But a strong Republican showing might just reverse the current status.
Split-government toss-ups
In these states, no party has total control of government, and the legislative chambers are toss-ups:
Governor
Lower chamber: House or Assembly
Senate
Supermajority
A historic Democratic trifecta could be on the horizon.
With split-partisan control of the legislature and narrow margins, power could go either way.
Control of both the Senate and House, which are led by power-sharing coalitions, are up for grabs.
Shaky supermajorities
In these states, one party has a supermajority in at least one chamber that’s in danger on Election Day.
Governor
Lower chamber: House or Assembly
Senate
Supermajority
Democrats are hoping to end the GOP’s supermajority in the House.
If Democrats flip just a few Senate seats, they’ll break the GOP’s supermajority there and gain significant power over the governor’s appointments.
If Democrats — who already control the governor’s mansion — flip two seats, they can break the Republican House supermajority.
Nebraska
The GOP hopes to hang on to its supermajority in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature.
If Democrats want to keep their supermajority in the Assembly, they can’t lose a single seat.
Democrats are focused on breaking the GOP’s veto-proof supermajorities.
Republicans control everything here. Thanks to independent redistricting, Democrats might have a shot at breaking the GOP’s supermajorities.
After courts threw out the GOP’s heavily gerrymandered map, the party’s supermajority in the Assembly is on the line.
Good reasons to vote
For far too long, state legislature races have been regarded as dull affairs that only the nerdiest of political wonks could enjoy. But, in many states, they are also where individual voters have the most power.
In Virginia’s 2017 elections, control of the House of Delegates hinged on a single district where the Republican and Democratic candidates tied at 11,608 votes each. The winner was chosen according to state law: by randomly pulling a name from a bowl. (The Republican won.)
A fluke, you might say? Think again. Since state districts tend to be small, the margins of victory that can tip the balance of power can frequently be just a few hundred votes. Take a look at the results of some of the closest chambers in the 2022 election:
This graphic shows the tight margins that flipped some states in the 2022 election. For example, New Hampshire's House was decided by only 23 votes.
Even in states where the elections are not so dramatic, results can profoundly affect local politics. Just ask Democrats in Florida, where Republicans clinched a supermajority in 2022, erasing the last vestiges of Democrats’ ability to influence the legislative process in the state. No longer could they slow down bills by forcing them to be read on the House floor (a requirement that can be waived with a two-thirds vote). Nor could they negotiate with Republicans to avoid that tactic. The result: A deluge of far-right legislation in the state with zero input from Democrats.
In a way, state legislatures are the engines that keep political culture roiling in the United States. Many issues — for better or worse — get their start in state capitals and migrate to D.C. Twenty presidents once served in these chambers, as did almost half of the lawmakers elected to the U.S. House or Senate in 2022.
Slips of paper are drawn from a bowl to decide a tied race between two Virginia House of Delegates candidates on Jan. 4, 2018, in Richmond. (Win McNamee/Getty Images North America)
They have also incubated policy movements that have transformed the country. Where would the movement to legalize marijuana be if states hadn’t taken the first step? And would same-sex marriage be a national right if a handful of statehouses — beginning with Vermont’s — didn’t help propel the idea forward?
Of course, state-level politics isn’t all great. Partisans in many states — Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas, to name a few — have eliminated intraparty competition through gerrymandering. In some places, calling these contests “races” (or event “contests”) is an exaggeration.
But there’s still plenty of reason to be looking down-ballot this year. While the presidential election might be a contest about today’s politics, the states are battling over tomorrow’s.
What to watch for, state by state
Governor
Lower chamber: House or Assembly
Senate
Supermajority
No state elections for the remainder of this year. Elections are held in midterm years.
Alaska is weird — but fun! Its legislature is run by bipartisan power-sharing coalitions. The House is controlled by a Republican-majority coalition, which includes a number of Democrats and independents. Its Senate has a Democratic-majority coalition, which also includes a few Republicans. Both chambers are considered toss-ups.
This is one of the most competitive legislatures in the country. Arizona has a split government: The governor is a Democrat, and Republicans control slim majorities in both the Senate and House. If Democrats gain at least two seats in both chambers, they would achieve a trifecta for the first time in nearly 60 years.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
With few toss-up districts, Democratic control is not going to change.
Democrats are defending their supermajority in the House (they must limit their losses to less than three seats) and trying to build one in the Senate (they only need to gain two seats). If they do so, they could refer constitutional amendments to the ballot without Republican support. Progressives would also secure significant power over Gov. Jared Polis, a moderate Democrat who’s vetoed a number of bills.
Democrats are defending a supermajority in the Connecticut Senate (they cannot lose a single seat, but they have multiple pickup opportunities) and trying to gain a supermajority in the House (they need to win three seats).
With few toss-up districts, Democratic control is not going to change.
Democrats are hoping to break the GOP’s supermajority in the House. They need to gain six seats — and that’s not impossible — which could give them more power to slow down Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s agenda. But there likely aren’t enough competitive seats to do the same in the Senate.
Republicans — who have a trifecta — should have to fight for control of the legislature in this purple state. But thanks to partisan gerrymandering by the GOP, they hold 59 percent of the Senate and 57 percent of the House. There likely aren’t enough competitive districts for either chamber to flip.
With few toss-up districts, Democratic control is not going to change.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
With few toss-up districts, Democratic control is not going to change.
Democrats are trying to break the GOP supermajority in the House, but that’s a tall order: They would have to defend all their House seats and flip an additional four.
Republicans are defending their supermajority in the Senate (they can’t lose a single seat) and trying to gain one in the House (they need to gain at least three seats). They need to keep their Senate supermajority to confirm the governor’s appointees.
The governor here, Laura Kelly, is a Democrat, but Republicans have supermajorities in the Senate and House. For years, Democrats have been trying to break those supermajorities and might do it this time around in the House (they only need to flip two seats). The Senate will be harder to crack.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
No state election this year. The state holds off-year elections.
Democrats have a trifecta here, but a strong showing by Republicans could wipe away the Democrats’ majority in the House (they only control 52 percent of seats). Republicans will have a tough battle to take the Senate, where Democrats control 62 percent of seats.
No state election this year. Elections are held in midterm years.
With few toss-up districts, Democratic control is not going to change.
The legislature here is highly competitive, with the Democrats’ trifecta on the line. In both chambers, Republicans just need to flip two seats to take control, and there are plenty of swing districts to make that happen.
Democrats are battling to defend their trifecta here, with slim majorities in both the House and Senate. While Republicans will have a tough time flipping the House, they might just be able to take the Senate, where Democrats have just a single-seat majority. While senators here are not up for election until 2026, one district will feature a special election that will determine control of the chamber.
No state election this year. The state holds off-year elections.
Democrats are trying to break Republican supermajorities, and might be able to do so in the House. The Senate is a taller order, as Democrats would need to gain at least two seats, and elections for the chamber are staggered, meaning there are fewer districts to contest.
Nebraska
Nebraska’s a bit of an oddball. It has a unicameral legislature (meaning it has only one chamber), and, officially, all its members are nonpartisan. Unofficially, Republicans have a supermajority, which Democrats could break if they gain at least three seats. That’s important because the legislature has a filibuster, so breaking the GOP’s hold could transform the state’s politics. Democrats are eyeing a handful of toss-up races that could do the trick.
Nevada is a battleground state with a Republican governor, but Democrats have gerrymandered the legislature so much that they have strong majorities in both chambers, including a supermajority in the Assembly. If Democrats defend that supermajority (they cannot lose a single seat) and create one in the Senate (they must flip one seat, which is doable thanks to redistricting), they would have achieve a veto-proof legislature that could sideline Gov. Joe Lombardo and enact an agenda of their own.
New Hampshire’s entire government is extremely competitive. Republicans hold a trifecta here, but they could easily lose all of it, since the governor’s race and both legislative chambers are toss-ups. If that happens, it would be the first full trifecta flip since 2010, when the GOP took over Maine and Wisconsin.
No state election this year. The state holds off-year elections.
Democrats have a trifecta here and are hoping to win supermajorities in both chambers (they just need to flip two seats in the House and one seat in the Senate). They might just achieve it, with the help of some gerrymandering.
Democrats have a trifecta here, with supermajorities in both the New York State Assembly and Senate (despite a local red wave in 2022). Assuming that red wave doesn’t reappear, they’re likely to expand their hold on those chambers.
North Carolina has a split government: A Democratic governor, but Republican supermajorities in both chambers thanks in part to gerrymandering. The incumbent governor is leaving office, but Democrats are favored to retain the governor’s mansion. That means Democrats are focused on breaking the GOP’s veto-proof supermajorities. To do so, they’ll need to flip two seats in the House and one in the Senate. Difficult, but not impossible.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
Democrats hope to build supermajorities in both chambers. They need to gain one seat in both the House and Senate to do it, but there are few toss-up seats for them to pursue. If they pull it off, Democrats will be able to pass new tax laws without Republican input.
Pennsylvania is a rare state with split-partisan control of its legislature. Democrats have a slim majority of the House, while Republicans control the Senate. If Democrats lose the House (they can’t lose a single seat), Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s life will get much harder. Meanwhile, Republicans can only afford to lose two Senate seats.
With few toss-up districts, Democratic control is not going to change.
Republicans will be defending their supermajority in the House (should be easy enough, as they can spare five seats) and might be on the verge of creating one in the Senate (they just need to flip one district).
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
Republicans have a trifecta here. Though Republicans don’t have supermajorities in the legislature (they control 61 percent of the Senate and 57 percent of the House), neither is competitive thanks to gerrymandering.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
Republicans are trying to break Democrats’ supermajorities to give Republican Gov. Phil Scott some legislative support, but that’s unlikely. Their best chance is the Senate, where they need to flip four seats.
No state election this year. The state holds off-year elections.
Democrats have a trifecta here, with healthy majorities in both the House and Senate. Thanks to redistricting, Democrats are expected to make gains in at least the Senate, but supermajorities are likely out of reach in both.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
For years, gerrymandering made the legislature an impenetrable Republican stronghold, but the state Supreme Court has changed that. Republicans are favored to control both chambers, but their Senate supermajority is likely toast. There’s even a small chance that Democrats could flip the Assembly.
With few toss-up districts, Republican control is not going to change.
Illustrations by Michelle Kondrich.
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