Elias GAKURU | Xian Jiaotong University (original) (raw)
Papers by Elias GAKURU
SSRG international journal of economics and management studies, Feb 15, 2024
SSRG international journal of economics and management studies, Feb 15, 2024
International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 2020
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 2020
This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrializati... more This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrialization in Rwanda. Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model and Granger causality were used based on time series data from 1980 to 2018. The authors concluded that, there is no long-run association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrial sector in Rwanda. On the other hand, we realized that there is an evidence of bidirectional causality moving from agricultural sector to industrial sector and from urbanization to industrial sector. On the other hand we realised that there is a Uni-Directional Causality running from Urbanisation to Agriculture. Moreover, the results support a policy of made in Rwanda, as it encourages the industrial sector. We recommend the government of Rwanda to focus on and increase the budget allocated in the agricultural sector to boost production which will lead to agro-processing industrial development as well as food security to satisfy the urban increasing demand instead of depending on food imports.
Factors Influencing the Growth of Non-Performing Loans. Fresh Evidence from Rwanda, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, 2024
This study empirically examined the link between the quality of the loans and their determinants ... more This study empirically examined the link between the quality of the loans and their determinants in the banking sector in Rwanda. The study used quarterly time-series data collected from the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) and National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) from Quarter1, 2012, to Quarter 4, 2021, in Rwanda. ARDL-ECM was used to estimate the long and short-run relationships between variables of interest. Several tests, such as Bound/Co-integration and Toda-Yamamoto Causality, were tested in this study. Impulse responses were also conducted. Empirical results indicated that both exchange rate, lending interest rate and inflation rate statistically affect the non-performing loans ratio in the short and long run. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the Loans to Deposits Ratio and Capital Adequacy Ratio have no statistically significant effect on the Non-Performing Loans Ratio. The short-run impact of the Dummy of the COVID-19 pandemic introduced in the model was prevalent and found to be negatively correlated with NPLs in the long run, from which we recommend further studies to ascertain the direction of its causal effect. The results indicated that previous deviation or shock from the long-run equilibrium will be corrected in the current period. As policy implications, the study suggests that Banks should cut interest rates on loans to make them less expensive for borrower's to meet their commitments. Furthermore, the Regulatory Authority should put more effort into stabilizing the inflation and exchange rates, which were found to exert a strong and positive impact on the Non-Performing Loans Ratio.
Impact of Remittances on Inflation in Rwanda (1995- 2021), 2024
The title of this paper is the influence of remittance inflows on Rwandan inflation for the Study... more The title of this paper is the influence of remittance inflows on Rwandan inflation for the Study Period (1995-2021). Specifically, the study analyzed the effect of Remittances on Inflation in Rwanda from 1995 to 2021. It pointed out the effects of external and money supply on inflation in Rwanda from 1995 to 2021 and provided some policy recommendations concerning the study findings. This study used secondary data collected from the World Bank dataset. Those data were time series data as the study used annual data. Using Eviews-12.0, the econometrics techniques were used to analyze the impact of independent variables (Remittances, External debt and Money supply) on the dependent variable (Inflation). The stationarity test was done to ensure whether to conduct the co-integration test or not. The results obtained after conducting the unit root test have been mixed as some series have been stationary at levels (I(0)), and others have been stationary after the first difference (I(1)). Having mixed unit root test results allowed the researcher to adopt the ARDL Bound co-integration test. The results of ARDL Bound analysis indicated the presence of lasting (long-run) relationships among the study series. The findings from ARDL ECM proved the existence of a significant immediate (short-run) relationship between the study series. With 0.973, it is clear that all explanatory variables together cause a variation of 97.3% to the dependent variable (INF) in the short run. Other factors remaining constant, it was revealed that received remittances possess a direct influence on inflation within Rwanda in the short run. Some recommendations have been given to the government of Rwanda, such as guiding remittances in investment rather than consumption motives, which leads to the growth of the economy. In this way, the financial institution can contribute to orienting remittances into productive investment opportunities like the financial market. Moreover, remittances have a higher contribution towards inflation compared to the other significant variables of the model. Thus, the inflationary effect originating from remittance inflows can be sufficiently controlled by promoting GDP growth. Therefore ensuring the flow of remittances in productive sectors.
SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies (SSRG-IJEMS) – Volume 7 Issue 9 – Sep 2020, 2020
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrializati... more This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrialization in Rwanda. Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model and Granger causality were used based on time series data from 1980 to 2018. The authors concluded that, there is no long-run association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrial sector in Rwanda. On the other hand, we realized that there is an evidence of bidirectional causality moving from agricultural sector to industrial sector and from urbanization to industrial sector. On the other hand we realised that there is a Uni-Directional Causality running from Urbanisation to Agriculture. Moreover, the results support a policy of made in Rwanda, as it encourages the industrial sector. We recommend the government of Rwanda to focus on and increase the budget allocated in the agricultural sector to boost production which will lead to agro-processing industrial development as well as food security to satisfy the urban increasing demand instead of depending on food imports.
International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 2020
This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and... more This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and personal remittances received and inflation in Rwanda using Johansen Co-integration analysis and Error Correction Model (ECM). According to the results of the analysis, it was realised that there is a long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth, personal remittances received, and Inflation. The government of Rwanda is advised to emphasize on its credit control policy, to reinforce its population control policy and to guide remittances from consumption motives to investment motives which can enhance economic growth. These practices should contribute more in decreasing inflation rate in Rwanda.
SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies (SSRG-IJEMS) – Volume 7 Issue 7 July 2020, 2020
This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and... more This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and personal remittances received and inflation in Rwanda using Johansen Co-integration analysis and Error Correction Model (ECM). According to the results of the analysis, it was realised that there is a long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth, personal remittances received, and Inflation. The government of Rwanda is advised to emphasize on its credit control policy, to reinforce its population control policy and to guide remittances from consumption motives to investment motives which can enhance economic growth. These practices should contribute more in decreasing inflation rate in Rwanda.
SSRG international journal of economics and management studies, Feb 15, 2024
SSRG international journal of economics and management studies, Feb 15, 2024
International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 2020
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 2020
This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrializati... more This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrialization in Rwanda. Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model and Granger causality were used based on time series data from 1980 to 2018. The authors concluded that, there is no long-run association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrial sector in Rwanda. On the other hand, we realized that there is an evidence of bidirectional causality moving from agricultural sector to industrial sector and from urbanization to industrial sector. On the other hand we realised that there is a Uni-Directional Causality running from Urbanisation to Agriculture. Moreover, the results support a policy of made in Rwanda, as it encourages the industrial sector. We recommend the government of Rwanda to focus on and increase the budget allocated in the agricultural sector to boost production which will lead to agro-processing industrial development as well as food security to satisfy the urban increasing demand instead of depending on food imports.
Factors Influencing the Growth of Non-Performing Loans. Fresh Evidence from Rwanda, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, 2024
This study empirically examined the link between the quality of the loans and their determinants ... more This study empirically examined the link between the quality of the loans and their determinants in the banking sector in Rwanda. The study used quarterly time-series data collected from the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) and National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) from Quarter1, 2012, to Quarter 4, 2021, in Rwanda. ARDL-ECM was used to estimate the long and short-run relationships between variables of interest. Several tests, such as Bound/Co-integration and Toda-Yamamoto Causality, were tested in this study. Impulse responses were also conducted. Empirical results indicated that both exchange rate, lending interest rate and inflation rate statistically affect the non-performing loans ratio in the short and long run. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the Loans to Deposits Ratio and Capital Adequacy Ratio have no statistically significant effect on the Non-Performing Loans Ratio. The short-run impact of the Dummy of the COVID-19 pandemic introduced in the model was prevalent and found to be negatively correlated with NPLs in the long run, from which we recommend further studies to ascertain the direction of its causal effect. The results indicated that previous deviation or shock from the long-run equilibrium will be corrected in the current period. As policy implications, the study suggests that Banks should cut interest rates on loans to make them less expensive for borrower's to meet their commitments. Furthermore, the Regulatory Authority should put more effort into stabilizing the inflation and exchange rates, which were found to exert a strong and positive impact on the Non-Performing Loans Ratio.
Impact of Remittances on Inflation in Rwanda (1995- 2021), 2024
The title of this paper is the influence of remittance inflows on Rwandan inflation for the Study... more The title of this paper is the influence of remittance inflows on Rwandan inflation for the Study Period (1995-2021). Specifically, the study analyzed the effect of Remittances on Inflation in Rwanda from 1995 to 2021. It pointed out the effects of external and money supply on inflation in Rwanda from 1995 to 2021 and provided some policy recommendations concerning the study findings. This study used secondary data collected from the World Bank dataset. Those data were time series data as the study used annual data. Using Eviews-12.0, the econometrics techniques were used to analyze the impact of independent variables (Remittances, External debt and Money supply) on the dependent variable (Inflation). The stationarity test was done to ensure whether to conduct the co-integration test or not. The results obtained after conducting the unit root test have been mixed as some series have been stationary at levels (I(0)), and others have been stationary after the first difference (I(1)). Having mixed unit root test results allowed the researcher to adopt the ARDL Bound co-integration test. The results of ARDL Bound analysis indicated the presence of lasting (long-run) relationships among the study series. The findings from ARDL ECM proved the existence of a significant immediate (short-run) relationship between the study series. With 0.973, it is clear that all explanatory variables together cause a variation of 97.3% to the dependent variable (INF) in the short run. Other factors remaining constant, it was revealed that received remittances possess a direct influence on inflation within Rwanda in the short run. Some recommendations have been given to the government of Rwanda, such as guiding remittances in investment rather than consumption motives, which leads to the growth of the economy. In this way, the financial institution can contribute to orienting remittances into productive investment opportunities like the financial market. Moreover, remittances have a higher contribution towards inflation compared to the other significant variables of the model. Thus, the inflationary effect originating from remittance inflows can be sufficiently controlled by promoting GDP growth. Therefore ensuring the flow of remittances in productive sectors.
SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies (SSRG-IJEMS) – Volume 7 Issue 9 – Sep 2020, 2020
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on ... more This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation on unemployment in Rwanda. Using co-integration analysis of Johansen and Error Correction Model (ECM), annually, periodic data from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed so as to reach this aim. The results indicated that there is a significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment net inflows (% of GDP), population growth (annual %), inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), and unemployment (% of the total labor force). In long-run, as well as in the short-run, the two independent variables (population growth and inflation) have a positive impact on unemployment, but Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on unemployment in the period of study. About inflation and unemployment there is no presence of Philips curve. The government of Rwanda has been recommended to reinforce policies of attracting foreign investors, to reinforce control of demographic changes, to reinforce made in Rwanda policy in order to discourage imported inflation and controlling money supply using monetary policy tools, especially selective credit control and wage control.
This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrializati... more This paper examines the association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrialization in Rwanda. Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model and Granger causality were used based on time series data from 1980 to 2018. The authors concluded that, there is no long-run association between urbanization, agricultural sector and industrial sector in Rwanda. On the other hand, we realized that there is an evidence of bidirectional causality moving from agricultural sector to industrial sector and from urbanization to industrial sector. On the other hand we realised that there is a Uni-Directional Causality running from Urbanisation to Agriculture. Moreover, the results support a policy of made in Rwanda, as it encourages the industrial sector. We recommend the government of Rwanda to focus on and increase the budget allocated in the agricultural sector to boost production which will lead to agro-processing industrial development as well as food security to satisfy the urban increasing demand instead of depending on food imports.
International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 2020
This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and... more This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and personal remittances received and inflation in Rwanda using Johansen Co-integration analysis and Error Correction Model (ECM). According to the results of the analysis, it was realised that there is a long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth, personal remittances received, and Inflation. The government of Rwanda is advised to emphasize on its credit control policy, to reinforce its population control policy and to guide remittances from consumption motives to investment motives which can enhance economic growth. These practices should contribute more in decreasing inflation rate in Rwanda.
SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies (SSRG-IJEMS) – Volume 7 Issue 7 July 2020, 2020
This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and... more This paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth and personal remittances received and inflation in Rwanda using Johansen Co-integration analysis and Error Correction Model (ECM). According to the results of the analysis, it was realised that there is a long-run relationship between domestic credits, population growth, personal remittances received, and Inflation. The government of Rwanda is advised to emphasize on its credit control policy, to reinforce its population control policy and to guide remittances from consumption motives to investment motives which can enhance economic growth. These practices should contribute more in decreasing inflation rate in Rwanda.