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- Terence Nunis It is part festival of talk, and part media show. Conferences of Partners (COPs) have led to international agreements that set standards for carbon emissions, renewable energy adoption, and climate adaptation strategies. While not legally binding, these agreements create a framework for countries to follow and build upon. COP events attract media coverage and public attention, raising awareness about climate issues and galvanising public support for climate action. This pressures governments and corporations to take meaningful steps. COPs provide a platform for countries to share knowledge, technology, and resources. This collaboration leads to innovative solutions and joint efforts in combating climate change. COPs establish reporting mechanisms that require countries to regularly update their progress on climate goals. This transparency encourages accountability and allows for tracking global progress. 28th Conference of Partners (COP28) and similar conferences have led to the establishment of funds, such as the Loss and Damage Fund, which supports vulnerable countries in coping with climate impacts. Many businesses and industries make climate commitments during COPs, aligning with global standards and contributing to the overall effort to reduce emissions. The Paris Agreement set ambitious targets for limiting global temperature rise and has driven countries to enhance their climate policies. The UAE Consensus at COP28 called for a transition away from fossil fuels, tripling renewable energy capacity, and doubling energy efficiency improvements before 2030. There has been some progress in mitigating global warming, but it is not enough to meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement. The cost of solar and wind energy has decreased significantly since 2010, making renewable energy more accessible. This has led to increased deployment of renewable energy sources worldwide. Policies and regulations have enhanced energy efficiency, reducing energy consumption in various sectors. Some countries have made substantial progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union has committed to reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Despite these efforts, global CO2 emissions reached 36.8 billion metric tons in 2023, an increase of 1.5% from the previous year. This indicates that emissions are still rising. Human-induced global warming has already reached 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, leading to unprecedented changes in the Earth’s climate. To limit warming to 1.5°C, emissions need to peak before 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030. The frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, have increased due to rising global temperatures. (Continued) Terence Nunis Terence K. J. Nunis, Consultant President, Red Sycamore Global
- Ben Ezra Investors braced for further upheaval in South Africa’s financial markets in the wake of last week’s elections that produced no outright winner, with the outcome of ongoing coalition talks remaining highly uncertain. https://lnkd.in/gqPicE5c The African National Congress fell short of a parliamentary majority for the first time since it took power three decades ago, as its supporters voiced their anger about endemic poverty, unemployment and crime by boycotting the polls or backing its rivals. It won 40.2% of the votes cast on May 29, results released by late Sunday showed. The centrist Democratic Alliance garnered 21.8% support, former President Jacob Zuma’s new uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP, 14.6% and the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters 9.5%. The latter parties both favor increased state spending and the nationalization of mines and the central bank, and the prospects of them joining the government and demanding populist policy changes is weighing on South Africa’s currency and debt. The rand has slumped 2.7% against the dollar since voting began on May 29 as the extent of the ANC’s losses became apparent. It was trading around 18.75 per dollar at 07:25 a.m. in Johannesburg on Monday. The cost of insuring the nation’s debt has risen about 18 basis points in that time to 240.7 basis points. The yield on local-currency bonds due 2035 ended the week at 12.25%, the highest level in a month. A coalition with the Democratic Alliance would be the most market-positive, “but getting there won’t be easy and will undoubtedly exert pressure on ANC cohesion,” said Mark Bohlund, senior credit research analyst at REDD Intelligence. “I think the uncertainty will continue to weigh on the rand, with a record breach of 20 per US dollar a distinct possibility,” he said. “The weaker rand is likely to trigger some repatriation of overseas funds in the near term. But the expectations of more constrained policy making going forward will increase the incentives for South African investors.”
- Rahul Bhushan Saw this quote today: “Addressing climate risk requires a decarbonisation strategy that goes beyond merely considering emissions within the portfolio in isolation - it is crucial to also address the real-world economy’s transition. A thoughtful climate strategy should be complemented by active engagement and voting activities that support that transition. A pure passive investment approach on climate may prove inadequate and expose portfolios to inherent risks and biases, as shown by our latest research findings.” What a load of total bullshit. We run both index and active strategies. All our Article 9 strategies are index sustainable/impact strategies. Here’s why this assertion is a lie: 1) Engagement and Voting have nothing to do with the investment management approach; they’re about seeing yourself as a company owner AND a shareholder. It’s about stewardship, not whether you’re active or passive. 2) The “Active” in Active Engagement is a farce. The term has been hijacked by the active mutual fund industry. All engagement is active; there are just different degrees of active. What they’re doing is implying that there’s such a thing as passive engagement. Don’t buy it. It’s PURE marketing. 3) Our analysis shows that, on average, it’s active mutual funds that are constructed for portfolio decarbonisation score optimisation (i.e., gaming the system to rank higher on MSCI or Morningstar). Why? Because they can, and the temptation is too high. If I create a so-called “dumb” index, on the other hand, I’ll always be restricted by my index rebalance schedule. 4) Further, our research shows that it’s the exception, not the norm, that mutual fund managers focus beyond “available” ESG metrics to forward-looking impacts in water, soil, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Indeed, Rize ETF found success as a business PRECISELY because clients told us we’re actually “doing the work” and “charging less.” 5) The claim that “a pure passive approach may expose portfolios to inherent risks and biases” is laughable. The exact opposite is true. Our research shows that active mutual fund strategies exhibit the most extreme biases because no two people’s sustainability is the same. Take the food transition as an example. One well-known active manager is currently pushing a degrowth agenda through his portfolio, believing – we believe falsely – that smallholder farms and artisanal brands are the path to food utopia. Meanwhile, another (who shall remain unnamed) has adopted a purely pragmatic ecomodernist approach, balancing sustainability objectives with the practicalities of feeding a global population. For instance, synthetic fertilisers, gene editing, and crop science are critical to food security but may come with negative environmental externalities and ethical considerations. In a climate adaptation scenario, however, we won’t survive without them, and this underscores the trade-off between an environmentalist vs. ecomodernist approach to the food transition.
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