Hubbert curve (original) (raw)
The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist M. King Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the con
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| dbo:abstract | The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist M. King Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970. (en) La curva di Hubbert (o hubbertiana), così chiamata dal geologo M. King Hubbert è la derivata della funzione logistica. Un esempio della curva di Hubbert può essere espressa come: La curva è molto simile, ma non identica, ad una distribuzione normale. È stata inizialmente intesa come modello per la stima della quantità di petrolio estraibile da un giacimento. Secondo questo modello, la quantità del petrolio estratto, e quindi prodotto, è determinata dalla velocità nello scoprire nuovi giacimenti petroliferi. Superato il punto di massima della funzione (detto picco di Hubbert) si avrà un declino dell'estrazione di petrolio che tenderà infine a zero. Hubbert applicò per la prima volta il suo modello alla produzione petrolifera degli Stati Uniti, riuscendo a prevedere con dieci anni di anticipo che questa produzione avrebbe raggiunto il suo massimo all'inizio degli anni settanta. Tuttavia, l'applicabilità della curva di Hubbert presenta dei limiti poiché non tiene in considerazione gli effetti delle nuove tecnologie, delle manovre dei governi e di particolari congiunture economiche. (it) |
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| rdfs:comment | The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist M. King Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the con (en) La curva di Hubbert (o hubbertiana), così chiamata dal geologo M. King Hubbert è la derivata della funzione logistica. Un esempio della curva di Hubbert può essere espressa come: La curva è molto simile, ma non identica, ad una distribuzione normale. È stata inizialmente intesa come modello per la stima della quantità di petrolio estraibile da un giacimento. Secondo questo modello, la quantità del petrolio estratto, e quindi prodotto, è determinata dalla velocità nello scoprire nuovi giacimenti petroliferi. Superato il punto di massima della funzione (detto picco di Hubbert) si avrà un declino dell'estrazione di petrolio che tenderà infine a zero. (it) |
| rdfs:label | Hubbert curve (en) Curva di Hubbert (it) |
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