The Wisdom of Crowds (original) (raw)
Die Weisheit der Vielen – weshalb Gruppen klüger sind als Einzelne (englischer Originaltitel: The Wisdom of Crowds. Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations) ist der Titel eines Buchs von James Surowiecki, das 2004 erschienen ist. Er argumentiert darin, dass die Kumulation von Informationen in Gruppen zu gemeinsamen Gruppenentscheidungen führen, die oft besser sind als Lösungsansätze einzelner Teilnehmer (sogenannte kollektive Intelligenz).
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dbo:abstract | Die Weisheit der Vielen – weshalb Gruppen klüger sind als Einzelne (englischer Originaltitel: The Wisdom of Crowds. Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations) ist der Titel eines Buchs von James Surowiecki, das 2004 erschienen ist. Er argumentiert darin, dass die Kumulation von Informationen in Gruppen zu gemeinsamen Gruppenentscheidungen führen, die oft besser sind als Lösungsansätze einzelner Teilnehmer (sogenannte kollektive Intelligenz). (de) La Sabiduría de los Grupos: Por qué los muchos son más inteligentes que los pocos y cómo la sabiduría colectiva da forma a los negocios, economía, sociedades y naciones, publicado por primera vez en 2004, es un libro escrito por acerca de la combinación de la información en grupos, que termina en decisiones que, argumenta él, son a menudo mejores que las que podrían haber sido tomadas por un solo miembro del grupo. El libro presenta numerosos casos estudiados y anécdotas para ilustrar su argumento, y recorre varios campos del saber, principalmente economía y psicología. La anécdota inicial cuenta la sorpresa de Francis Galton cuando en la feria del condado una muchedumbre dedujo con precisión el peso de un buey cuando sus estimaciones individuales eran aproximadas (y el promedio estuvo más cerca del verdadero peso del buey que las estimaciones por separado de la mayoría de los miembros de la muchedumbre, y también más cercana que cualquiera de las estimaciones de los expertos en ganado). El libro habla más de diversas colecciones de individuos decidiendo independientemente que de psicología multitudinaria tal como es tradicionalmente entendida. Hay paralelos con la teoría estadística de muestreo- una colección de individuos decidiendo independientemente tiende a ser más representativa del universo de posibles resultados, produciendo por eso una mejor predicción. El título alude al libro de , , publicado en 1843. (es) La Sagesse des foules est un livre écrit par James Surowiecki, publié en 2004, traduit en français en 2008, à propos de l'agrégation de l'information dans les groupes, résultant en évaluations qui, selon un théorème qu'il fournit, seront souvent meilleures non seulement que celles d'individus isolés du groupe, mais que la moyenne des évaluations du groupe (la différence provenant d'une prise en compte de l'information de diversité). Le livre présente plusieurs études de cas et anecdotes illustrant cette thèse. Il applique cette théorie de l'intelligence collective à plusieurs domaines dont l'économie, la politique et la psychologie. Surowiecki se penche également sur l'émergence des marchés prédictifs en tant qu'outil d'exploitation de la sagesse des foules. Le titre est une allusion à la (en) de Charles Mackay, publié en 1841. (fr) The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. The book presents numerous case studies and anecdotes to illustrate its argument, and touches on several fields, primarily economics and psychology. The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members). The book relates to diverse collections of independently deciding individuals, rather than crowd psychology as traditionally understood. Its central thesis, that a diverse collection of independently deciding individuals is likely to make certain types of decisions and predictions better than individuals or even experts, draws many parallels with statistical sampling; however, there is little overt discussion of statistics in the book. Its title is an allusion to Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, published in 1841. (en) La saggezza delle folle: Perché i molti sono più intelligenti del potere e come la saggezza collettiva modella gli affari, le economie, le società e le nazioni, (in lingua originale: The Wisdom of Crowds) pubblicato nel 2004, è un libro scritto da James Surowiecki sull'aggregazione delle informazioni nei gruppi, con il risultato di decisioni che, sostiene, sono spesso migliori di quelle che avrebbero potuto essere prese da qualsiasi singolo membro del gruppo. Il libro presenta numerosi casi di studio e aneddoti per illustrare il suo argomento, e tocca diversi campi, principalmente l'economia e la psicologia. L'aneddoto di apertura racconta lo stupore di Francis Galton al fatto che la folla a una fiera della contea abbia indovinato accuratamente il peso di un bue attraverso la media delle ipotesi dei presenti (la media era più vicina al vero peso del bue macellato rispetto alle stime della maggior parte dei membri della folla). Il libro tratta diverse raccolte di individui che decidono in modo indipendente, piuttosto che usare la psicologia delle masse come tradizionalmente intesa. La sua tesi centrale è in grado di rendere certi tipi di decisioni e previsioni migliori degli individui o anche degli esperti, tracciando molti parallelismi con il campionamento statistico; tuttavia, nel libro c'è poca discussione aperta sulle statistiche. Il suo titolo è un'allusione a Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds di Charles Mackay, pubblicato nel 1841. (it) The Wisdom of Crowds (2004) is een boek van de Amerikaanse journalist James Surowiecki, waarin hij het standpunt verdedigt dat een grote groep leken in bepaalde omstandigheden meer weet dan enkele deskundigen. De titel is een toespeling op het boek van de Schotse journalist Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, dat in 1841 werd gepubliceerd. Dat boek was juist uiterst kritisch over uitingen van de massa, zoals economische zeepbellen, heksenjacht, bijgeloof en dergelijke. Het werd in het Nederlands vertaald en uitgegeven onder de titel Twee weten meer dan een; Waarom het beter is groepsbeslissingen te nemen. (nl) 『「みんなの意見」は案外正しい』(みんなのいけんはあんがいただしい)は2004年にによって発売された本『The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations(群衆の英知:なぜ多数は少数より賢いのか。群衆の英知はビジネス、経済、社会、国家においてどう表れるか)』の邦訳版である。 (ja) A Sabedoria das Multidões (The Wisdom of Crowds), primeiramente publicado em 2004, é um livro escrito por James Surowiecki sobre a agregação de informação em grupos, resultando em decisões que, como ele argumenta, são quase sempre melhores do que as que poderiam ser feitas por qualquer membro do grupo. O livro apresenta numerosos casos e anedotas para ilustrar seus argumentos, recorrendo a diversas áreas do conhecimento, principalmente economia e psicologia. A primeira história do livro relata a surpresa de Francis Galton ao perceber que a multidão em uma feira do condado, supôs exatamente o peso de um boi quando a média de suas suposições foi calculada. A média estava mais perto do peso verdadeiro do boi do que as estimativas da maioria de membros da multidão, e também mais perto do que algumas das estimativas separadas feitas por peritos em gado. (Nota: apesar da descrição de Surowiecki sugerir que Gallon utilizou a média, uma leitura no trabalho original de Gallon indica que a mediana foi usada [1]) O título do livro é uma alusão ao trabalho de Charles Mackay "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", publicação em inglês em 1843. (pt) 《群体的智慧:如何讓個人、 團隊、企業與社會變得更聰明》(The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations)一书,首次出版于2004年,作者是詹姆斯·索诺维尔基(James Surowiecki)。在这本书中,作者阐述和主张这样一个观点:团体中,信息的集合往往有利于作出比每一个成员单独所做的决定要好得多的决策。作者在书中陈述大量实例研究和轶闻来说明观点,而且涉及到若干领域,其中主要的有经济学和心理学。 作者在本书开篇讲述了一个轶闻,是法蘭西斯·高爾頓(Francis Galton)对所述观点的支持:一个郡县里,全体社区成员对公牛重量估测的平均数十分接近真实值甚至是相当准确无误的。而这个平均数要比大多数成员的估量更接近牛的真实重量,也比任何一个熟悉牛的行家所作的单独存在的推测接近真实量。 这本中所阐述的对单独的个人观点的多样化的收集,不同于传统意义上理解的集体心理学。它却与统计学上的抽样理论有着极为相似的地方——一个通过集合了那些单独存在的个人判断所得到的结论,似乎更能够具有典型性,这种典型性代表了全体人类所能够想到的可能的结果,从而得到较为恰切的预言。 这本书的题目暗讽了查尔斯·麦凯(Charles Mackay)在1843年出版的《大众错觉与群体狂热》(Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds)一书。 (zh) |
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rdfs:comment | Die Weisheit der Vielen – weshalb Gruppen klüger sind als Einzelne (englischer Originaltitel: The Wisdom of Crowds. Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations) ist der Titel eines Buchs von James Surowiecki, das 2004 erschienen ist. Er argumentiert darin, dass die Kumulation von Informationen in Gruppen zu gemeinsamen Gruppenentscheidungen führen, die oft besser sind als Lösungsansätze einzelner Teilnehmer (sogenannte kollektive Intelligenz). (de) 『「みんなの意見」は案外正しい』(みんなのいけんはあんがいただしい)は2004年にによって発売された本『The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations(群衆の英知:なぜ多数は少数より賢いのか。群衆の英知はビジネス、経済、社会、国家においてどう表れるか)』の邦訳版である。 (ja) La Sabiduría de los Grupos: Por qué los muchos son más inteligentes que los pocos y cómo la sabiduría colectiva da forma a los negocios, economía, sociedades y naciones, publicado por primera vez en 2004, es un libro escrito por acerca de la combinación de la información en grupos, que termina en decisiones que, argumenta él, son a menudo mejores que las que podrían haber sido tomadas por un solo miembro del grupo. El libro presenta numerosos casos estudiados y anécdotas para ilustrar su argumento, y recorre varios campos del saber, principalmente economía y psicología. (es) La Sagesse des foules est un livre écrit par James Surowiecki, publié en 2004, traduit en français en 2008, à propos de l'agrégation de l'information dans les groupes, résultant en évaluations qui, selon un théorème qu'il fournit, seront souvent meilleures non seulement que celles d'individus isolés du groupe, mais que la moyenne des évaluations du groupe (la différence provenant d'une prise en compte de l'information de diversité). Le livre présente plusieurs études de cas et anecdotes illustrant cette thèse. Il applique cette théorie de l'intelligence collective à plusieurs domaines dont l'économie, la politique et la psychologie. Surowiecki se penche également sur l'émergence des marchés prédictifs en tant qu'outil d'exploitation de la sagesse des foules. (fr) The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. The book presents numerous case studies and anecdotes to illustrate its argument, and touches on several fields, primarily economics and psychology. (en) La saggezza delle folle: Perché i molti sono più intelligenti del potere e come la saggezza collettiva modella gli affari, le economie, le società e le nazioni, (in lingua originale: The Wisdom of Crowds) pubblicato nel 2004, è un libro scritto da James Surowiecki sull'aggregazione delle informazioni nei gruppi, con il risultato di decisioni che, sostiene, sono spesso migliori di quelle che avrebbero potuto essere prese da qualsiasi singolo membro del gruppo. Il libro presenta numerosi casi di studio e aneddoti per illustrare il suo argomento, e tocca diversi campi, principalmente l'economia e la psicologia. (it) A Sabedoria das Multidões (The Wisdom of Crowds), primeiramente publicado em 2004, é um livro escrito por James Surowiecki sobre a agregação de informação em grupos, resultando em decisões que, como ele argumenta, são quase sempre melhores do que as que poderiam ser feitas por qualquer membro do grupo. O livro apresenta numerosos casos e anedotas para ilustrar seus argumentos, recorrendo a diversas áreas do conhecimento, principalmente economia e psicologia. (pt) The Wisdom of Crowds (2004) is een boek van de Amerikaanse journalist James Surowiecki, waarin hij het standpunt verdedigt dat een grote groep leken in bepaalde omstandigheden meer weet dan enkele deskundigen. De titel is een toespeling op het boek van de Schotse journalist Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, dat in 1841 werd gepubliceerd. Dat boek was juist uiterst kritisch over uitingen van de massa, zoals economische zeepbellen, heksenjacht, bijgeloof en dergelijke. (nl) 《群体的智慧:如何讓個人、 團隊、企業與社會變得更聰明》(The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations)一书,首次出版于2004年,作者是詹姆斯·索诺维尔基(James Surowiecki)。在这本书中,作者阐述和主张这样一个观点:团体中,信息的集合往往有利于作出比每一个成员单独所做的决定要好得多的决策。作者在书中陈述大量实例研究和轶闻来说明观点,而且涉及到若干领域,其中主要的有经济学和心理学。 作者在本书开篇讲述了一个轶闻,是法蘭西斯·高爾頓(Francis Galton)对所述观点的支持:一个郡县里,全体社区成员对公牛重量估测的平均数十分接近真实值甚至是相当准确无误的。而这个平均数要比大多数成员的估量更接近牛的真实重量,也比任何一个熟悉牛的行家所作的单独存在的推测接近真实量。 这本中所阐述的对单独的个人观点的多样化的收集,不同于传统意义上理解的集体心理学。它却与统计学上的抽样理论有着极为相似的地方——一个通过集合了那些单独存在的个人判断所得到的结论,似乎更能够具有典型性,这种典型性代表了全体人类所能够想到的可能的结果,从而得到较为恰切的预言。 (zh) |
rdfs:label | The Wisdom of Crowds (en) Die Weisheit der Vielen (de) Sabiduría de los grupos (es) La Sagesse des foules (fr) La saggezza delle folle (it) 「みんなの意見」は案外正しい (ja) The Wisdom of Crowds (nl) Sabedoria das Multidões (pt) 群体的智慧 (zh) |
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