2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky (original) (raw)

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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
← 2016 November 6, 2018 2020 →
All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives
Majority party Minority party Party Republican Democratic Last election 5 1 Seats won 5 1 Seat change Steady Steady Popular vote 935,564 613,040 Percentage 59.59% 39.05% Swing Decrease 11.11% Increase 9.77%
Election results by district Election results by county Republican 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Democratic 50–60% 60–70%

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

Popular vote
Republican 59.59%
Democratic 39.05%
Other 1.36%
House seats
Republican 83.33%
Democratic 16.67%

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky by district:[1]

2018 Kentucky's 1st congressional district election
← 20162020 →
Nominee James Comer Paul Walker Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 172,167 78,849 Percentage 68.6% 31.4%
County resultsComer: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
U.S. Representative before election James Comer Republican Elected U.S. Representative James Comer Republican

Incumbent Republican James Comer, who had represented the district since 2016, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+23.

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

2018 Kentucky's 2nd congressional district election
← 20162020 →
Nominee Brett Guthrie Hank Linderman Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 171,700 79,964 Percentage 66.7% 31.1%
County resultsGuthrie: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
U.S. Representative before election Brett Guthrie Republican Elected U.S. Representative Brett Guthrie Republican

Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+19.

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

2018 Kentucky's 3rd congressional district election
← 20162020 →
Nominee John Yarmuth Vickie Yates Glisson Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 173,002 101,930 Percentage 62.1% 36.1%
County resultYarmuth: 60–70%
U.S. Representative before election John Yarmuth Democratic Elected U.S. Representative John Yarmuth Democratic

Incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with %63 of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+6.

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

2018 Kentucky's 4th congressional district election
← 20162020 →
Nominee Thomas Massie Seth Hall Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 162,946 90,536 Percentage 62.2% 34.6%
County resultsMassie: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
U.S. Representative before election Thomas Massie Republican Elected U.S. Representative Thomas Massie Republican

Incumbent Republican Thomas Massie, who had represented the district since 2012, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+18.

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

2018 Kentucky's 5th congressional district election
← 20162020 →
Nominee Hal Rogers Kenneth Stepp Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 172,093 45,890 Percentage 78.9% 21.0%
County resultsRogers: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
U.S. Representative before election Hal Rogers Republican Elected U.S. Representative Hal Rogers Republican

Incumbent Republican Hal Rogers, who had represented the district since 1981, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+31.

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

2018 Kentucky's 6th congressional district election
← 20162020 →
Nominee Andy Barr Amy McGrath Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 154,468 144,736 Percentage 51.0% 47.8%
County resultsBarr: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% McGrath: 50–60%
U.S. Representative before election Andy Barr Republican Elected U.S. Representative Andy Barr Republican

Incumbent Republican Andy Barr, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+9.

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Kentucky's 6th congressional district on its initial list of Republican-held seats considered targets in 2018.[16][17] McGrath's campaign announcement video, entitled "Told Me" where she spoke of her navy service (being the first female Marine to fly an McDonnell Douglas F/F-18 in combat), attracted much national attention.[18][19][20]

The DCCC opted to support Jim Gray in the primary.[21][22]

Reggie Thomas

Individuals

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin of error JimGray AmyMcGrath ReggieThomas Other Undecided
Garin Hart Yang (D-McGrath)[30] April 17–19, 2018 400 ±5.0% 35% 42% 6% 3% 14%
Mellman Group (D-Gray)[31] March 3–6, 2018 400 ±4.9% 52% 19% 6% — 23%

County results

Map legend

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror AndyBarr (R) AmyMcGrath (D) Other Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College[34] November 1–4, 2018 438 ± 4.9% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[35] October 6–8, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 48% 46% – –
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[36] September 30 – October 2, 2018 501 ± 4.5% 44% 51% – –
Pulse Opinion Research[37] September 12–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 47% 2% 3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[38] September 6–8, 2018 506 ± 4.9% 47% 46% – 7%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)[39] September 4–6, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 49% 45% – 6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[40] July 7–10, 2018 461 ± 4.6% 43% 50% – 7%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)[39] June 6–7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 38% 51% – 11%
DCCC (D)[41] April 30–May 2, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 37% 52% – 8%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[42] February 5–7, 2018 401 ± 5.0% 48% 44% – –
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[44] Tossup November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[45] Tossup November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] Lean R November 5, 2018
RCP[47] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[48] Tossup November 5, 2018
538[49] Tossup November 7, 2018
  1. ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  2. ^ reports, New Era staff. "Murray man to run for congress, challenge Comer". Kentucky New Era. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  3. ^ "Can Alonzo Pennington Thumbpick His Way into Congress?". LA Progressive. March 10, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  4. ^ "Hank Linderman running for Congress". TRISTATEHOMEPAGE. January 31, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  5. ^ "Danville hosts first public forum for Democratic congressional candidates | The Advocate-Messenger". www.amnews.com. February 22, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  6. ^ By, WES SWIETEK. "Third Democrat files to challenge Guthrie". Bowling Green Daily News. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  7. ^ "Four good Democratic candidates for Kentucky's Second District | The Advocate-Messenger". www.amnews.com. February 24, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  8. ^ "Kentucky Health Official Running for Congress | NewsRadio 840 WHAS". NewsRadio 840 WHAS. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  9. ^ "Here is the list of candidates for 4th Congressional District and KY House, Senate, from the region | NKyTribune". www.nkytribune.com. January 31, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  10. ^ "Massie Challenger Looks to Paint a Red District Blue". CityBeat Cincinnati. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  11. ^ "McGrath will launch first campaign commercial during UK basketball game". Spectrum News. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  12. ^ Arroyo, Emilie. "Lexington mayor Jim Gray files to run for Congress". Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  13. ^ "Theodore David Green". Archived from the original on April 14, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  14. ^ Staff, WKYT News. "State Senator Reggie Thomas to run for Congress". Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  15. ^ "Geoff Young continues suit against Kentucky Democratic Party, even as he seeks its nomination | The State Journal". www.state-journal.com. Retrieved April 14, 2018.[_permanent dead link_‍]
  16. ^ Cheney, Kyle (January 30, 2017). "Amid Democratic doldrums, DCCC identifies 2018 targets". Politico. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
  17. ^ Sena, Dan (January 30, 2017). "House Democrats Playing Offense" (PDF). Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
  18. ^ Kurtzleben, Danielle (August 3, 2017). "Female Retired Marine With Viral Campaign Ad Hopes To Bridge Gap In Democratic Party". NPR.
  19. ^ Desrochers, Daniel (June 19, 2017). "His blog inflamed Kentucky politics a decade ago. Now he's back". Lexington Herald-Leader.
  20. ^ Puckett, Jeffrey Lee (August 3, 2017). "Kentucky combat veteran Amy McGrath is going viral with a video announcing Congressional run". The Courier-Journal.
  21. ^ Murphy, Tim (May 22, 2018). "As a kid, she petitioned Congress for the right to fly fighter planes. Now she's gunning for a seat of her own". Mother Jones.
  22. ^ Tackett, Michael (January 29, 2018). "From Annapolis to Congress? These Three Women Know Tough Missions". The New York Times.
  23. ^ "United Steelworkers Endorse Jim Gray for Congress". jimgraycongress.co. Jim Gray for Congress. April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on May 24, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  24. ^ Elliot Imse (January 23, 2018). "23 more LGBTQ champions for equality endorsed by Victory Fund". victoryfund.org/. Victory Fund PAC. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  25. ^ Herald-Leader editorial board (May 13, 2018). "Jim Gray for 6th District Democrats". kentucky.com. Lexington Herald-Leader. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  26. ^ a b Bradner, Eric (May 21, 2018). "Democratic primary in Kentucky pits openly gay mayor against female fighter pilot". CNN.
  27. ^ a b Roarty, Alex (August 9, 2017). "Rising Dem star Moulton grants seal of approval to three House candidates". The News & Observer.
  28. ^ a b "VoteVets PAC Endorses Amy McGrath for Congress". VoteVets.org. Archived from the original on July 8, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
  29. ^ a b "Our Candidates: Amy McGrath KY-6 (D)". With Honor. Archived from the original on November 14, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
  30. ^ Garin Hart Yang (D-McGrath)
  31. ^ Mellman Group (D-Gray)
  32. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Heading to the Great State of Kentucky - Big Rally for Congressman Andy Barr - Fantastic guy, need his vote for MAGA! Strong on Crime, Tax Cuts, Military, Vets & 2nd A. His opponent will NEVER vote for us, only for Pelosi. Andy has my Strongest Endorsement!!! See you in Kentucky". Twitter.
  33. ^ "Red to Blue". dccc.org/. DCCC. Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  34. ^ NYT Upshot/Siena College
  35. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)
  36. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath) Archived October 4, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  37. ^ Pulse Opinion Research
  38. ^ NYT Upshot/Siena College
  39. ^ a b Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)
  40. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)
  41. ^ DCCC (D)
  42. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)
  43. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  44. ^ "2018 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  45. ^ "2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  46. ^ "2018 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  47. ^ "Battle for the House 2018". RCP. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  48. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 5, 2018.[_permanent dead link_‍]
  49. ^ Silver, Nate (August 16, 2018). "2018 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 6, 2018.