Timo Smura | Aalto University (original) (raw)

Papers by Timo Smura

Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 23/2012 © Timo Smura ISBN 978-952-60-4... more Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 23/2012 © Timo Smura ISBN 978-952-60-4524-5 (printed) ISBN 978-952-60-4525-2 (pdf)

The evolution of technology products can be analysed on multiple levels. Product categories go th... more The evolution of technology products can be analysed on multiple levels. Product categories go through continuous evolution determined by the cumulative changes in the features of new product models. This is manifested in the diffusion of new product features and in the increasingly vague boundaries between different product generations. This article develops an approach for planning and forecasting technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features. This is achieved by isolating the phenomena underlying the evolution process, and formulating the process at the product category, product feature, and product
model levels. The approach is derived from these formulations combining the primarily demand-driven product category diffusion and product unit replacement behaviour, and the more supply-driven product feature dissemination. The approach enables meaningful sensitivity analysis including the analysis of discontinuities. The developed approach is applied to characterise the evolution of an example product category of mobile handsets and to forecast the diffusion of mobile handset features using extensive longitudinal and crosssectional data collected from Finland. In consequence, the process of technology product evolution and the phenomenon of product feature dissemination are suggested as extensions to research on product category diffusion and replacement.

The purpose of this research is to understand the behavior and expectations of mobile handset use... more The purpose of this research is to understand the behavior and expectations of mobile handset users towards energy consumption. We analyze mobile handset monitoring traces from subsequent years with N = 253 and 105, and questionnaire studies with N = 155 and 150. The data allows us to study both the actual behavior of the users and their explicit attitudes, expectations, and experiences. Additional difference to prior work is the use of longitudinal data from multiple years and a user sample that is much larger than in earlier studies. We present hypotheses drawn both from literature and from our own experience, and use the datasets to support or refute them. Our results indicate that mobile device users need more detailed and clearer information of the battery status and energy consumption. Moreover, users want to understand how different applications and services affect the energy consumption and to learn what they can do to control it.

Importance of mobile data services is increasing but factual information on their usage is limite... more Importance of mobile data services is increasing but factual information on their usage is limited. This paper analyses the usage of mobile data services in Finland. The use of multiple data sources gives complementary viewpoints to the evolution and usage of the services and the underlying technical components: networks, devices, applications and content. The analysis is descriptive by nature and presents detailed information about the past market evolution, current market situation and trends. The results indicate that the technical components enabling mobile data service usage are spreading. On the basis of the study, a number of mobile data market metrics are suggested.

info, Jan 1, 2009

Purpose – Collecting and analysing data on mobile service usage is increasingly complex as usage ... more Purpose – Collecting and analysing data on mobile service usage is increasingly complex as usage diverges between different types of devices and networks. The purpose of this paper is to suggest and apply a holistic framework that helps in designing mobile service usage research as well as in communicating, positioning, and comparing research results.

Design/methodology/approach – The framework was constructed based on longitudinal and cross-sectional mobile service usage measurements carried out in Finland annually in 2005-2008, covering 80-90 percent of all mobile users and service usage. Broad use of multiple data collection methods and measurement points enabled data and method triangulation, as well as analysis and comparison of their scopes and limitations.

Findings – The paper suggests a holistic framework for analysing mobile services, relying on service science approach. For measurements and analysis, mobile services are decomposed into four technical components: devices, applications, networks, and content. The paper further presents classifications for each component and discusses their relationships with possible measurement points. The framework is applied to mobile browsing usage studies.

Research limitations/implications – Future work includes adding an actors dimension to the framework in order to analyse their roles in the value networks providing mobile services. Extending the framework to Internet services more generally is also possible.

Originality/value – The paper presents an original, broadly applicable framework for designing mobile service usage research, and communicating, positioning, and comparing research results. The framework helps academics and practitioners to design and to recognise the limitations of mobile service usage studies, and to avoid misinterpretations based on insufficient data.

Mobile broadcasting is entering a phase of commercial launches worldwide. However, the related va... more Mobile broadcasting is entering a phase of commercial launches worldwide. However, the related value network remains unclear: the markets and the conventional roles of broadcasters, broadcast network operators and cellular operators are becoming intertwined in an unprecedented manner. This paper proposes a generic model for analysing the mobile broadcast value networks. Building on that model and by applying the methods of techno-economic analysis, simulation-based results are presented on the feasibility of selected mobile broadcast value network configurations in the Finnish market.

Netnomics, Jan 1, 2007

For a company planning to become a mobile operator, two alternative ways to enter the market exis... more For a company planning to become a mobile operator, two alternative ways to enter the market exist. In addition to the traditional way of acquiring a spectrum license and building a mobile network, market entrance is also possible by becoming a virtual operator and utilizing the existing networks of incumbent operators. Potentially, virtual operators will have an important role in shaping the mobile market structure and competition. In this paper, techno-economic modeling methods are used to analyze the position of virtual operators in the mobile communications industry. Four alternative virtual operator scenarios are constructed and analyzed using a linear, deterministic, and quantitative techno-economic model. The results highlight the importance of wholesale contracts with incumbent mobile network operators in determining the virtual operators’ business profitability. Unbalance in termination prices between fixed and mobile networks is shown to give incentives for virtual operators to invest in their own network infrastructure.

info, Jan 1, 2009

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered m... more Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunications industry lately. Integrated operators (who own both fixed and mobile networks), are keen to exploit FMC benefits in order to save costs and generate new revenues. This paper aims to analyze the effects of converged network and service environment on the business of existing telecommunication operators.

Design/methodology/approach – After an introduction to the regulatory, market, and technology related issues of convergence, the authors focus on analyzing the role of FMC technologies and services in their businesses of an integrated operator with existing fixed and mobile operations in a large Western European country.

Findings – Results reveal that an integrated operator can benefit from cost savings, customer retention and prevent revenue erosion by migrating to FMC.

Originality/value – This paper examines the effects of fixed-mobile convergence to an integrated operator.

Telecommunication …, Jan 1, 2009

The importance of analyzing different business models and technologies in the mobile industry has... more The importance of analyzing different business models and technologies in the mobile industry has become more crucial for the investment policy of the telecom operators. This paper aims to cover some of the most interesting business alternatives in providing the new 3G and beyond services including cases where the operator already has an existing second-generation cellular network and perhaps even a license for the 3G UMTS network, and cases where the operator does not have any existing network. Three cases for incumbents and new entrants are foreseen, leaving alternatives for new competing 3G technology deployment or acting as a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) without owning any radio infrastructure. A techno-economic approach has been used to identify business opportunities and quantify the potential profitability of different kind of business players. The scenarios have been analyzed in the Western European context by different country groups that are not exactly representative of any defined country, but rather share typical demographic characteristics.

Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) radio networks offer an alternative way t... more Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) radio networks offer an alternative way to provide fixed, nomadic, and mobile broadband services to businesses and consumers. In these markets, it is both complementing and competing with other access technologies such as asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL), wireless local area network (LAN), and third-generation (3G) mobile networks. The success of WiMAX
requires the technology to reach performance and cost levels comparable or superior to these other technologies, which already have an established position in the market. This chapter analyzes the competitive potential of fixed WiMAX networks in different market conditions. A quantitative techno-economic model is constructed for analyzing fixed WiMAX network deployments in urban, suburban, and rural areas. The model is used to assess the coverage, capacity, and cost characteristics of WiMAX systems, in contrast to the competing access technologies.

The growing amount of mobile data traffic increases the demand for local area network deployments... more The growing amount of mobile data traffic increases the demand for local area network deployments and is therefore likely to have an effect on the mobile communications ecosystem. Several alternative value network configurations exist giving new business opportunities to different actors, but the attractiveness and the success of local area access provisioning remains uncertain. This study analyzes the business of public local area access from the point of view of two potential providers: mobile operators and service application providers. A quantitative techno-economic model is constructed to quantify the costs and required revenues of operating public LA access networks. The results show that the revenue requirements vary between public LA venue types and value network configurations.

2009 Eighth International Conference on …, Jan 1, 2009

Mobile handsets have evolved into advanced devices with a rich variety of hardware and software f... more Mobile handsets have evolved into advanced devices with a rich variety of hardware and software features. These features enable the use of completely new mobile services that complement and substitute the traditional voice calling and text messaging services. Therefore, instead of the diffusion of mobile handsets, the diffusion of new mobile handset features has become an increasingly important research topic. In this paper, the diffusion patterns of mobile handset features were compared quantitatively based on an extensive and unique dataset on mobile handsets collected from Finland. Mobile handset features are new technologies that diffuse within the existing population of mobile handsets. A first attempt to quantitatively model such ldquonested diffusionrdquo was made. Moreover, handset features form clusters of technologies with interdependent diffusion patterns. The decisions to bundle features together are made by handset manufacturers. Therefore, the diffusion of handset features was found to be supply-driven.

Mobile Business, 2009. ICMB 2009. Eighth …, Jan 1, 2009

Indoor deployments of wireless access points will likely be required to fulfill the future traffi... more Indoor deployments of wireless access points will likely be required to fulfill the future traffic capacity requirements. Considerable uncertainty exists, however, about the technologies utilized to provide local area access, as well as the roles of different actors in the value network providing mobile services. We apply Schoemakerpsilas scenario planning method to identify and analyze the key uncertainties and to construct four alternative and plausible future scenarios having different implications to local area access technologies and business models. The results are valuable in designing wireless technologies and standards for the future, as well as in pointing out the role of local area access provisioning as a potential control point in the mobile services business.

Proceedings of the ITS 17th Biennial Conference, …, Jan 1, 2008

Telecommunications Internet and …, Jan 1, 2010

Rapidly growing demand for ubiquitous wireless access is presenting significant challenges to the... more Rapidly growing demand for ubiquitous wireless access is presenting significant challenges to the scalability of the existing mobile wide area (WA) network infrastructure. This is increasing the importance of wireless local area (LA) access points (AP) and base stations (BS) residing in indoor locations. Uncertainty exists over who will control this, potentially very valuable part of the mobile service delivery infrastructure and there are many interested actors in position of coupling local area access to their existing platform. In this paper we conduct an analysis of possible Value Network Configurations (VNC) that could emerge around wireless local area access. We construct seven alternative Value Network Configurations by identifying important roles related to wireless local area access provisioning, the corresponding drivers and actors in position of taking on these roles. The identification and description of these configurations clarifies the different possible evolution paths for wireless local area access provisioning and acts as a basis for the design of corresponding future technologies and regulatory policies.

… , 2007. CTTE 2007. …, Jan 1, 2007

In recent years, fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunicati... more In recent years, fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunications industry. FMC is expected to offer benefits for network and service operators as well as end-users. Integrated operators (who own both fixed and mobile networks), are keen to exploit these benefits in order to save costs and generate new revenues. However, such operators are also faced with the challenge of identifying an appropriate roadmap for FMC migration in order to prevent substitution effects or conflict of interest among their own fixed and network operations. In this paper, we present results and analysis of an FMC migration case study for an integrated operator in a Western European market. The additional benefits achieved by the operator are quantified, with suggestions for migration strategies. Results of the study show that an integrated operator can benefit from cost savings, customer retention and prevent revenue erosion by migrating to FMC.

17th European Regional ITS Conference, Jan 1, 2006

The rapid evolution of wireless networking technologies has opened up new possibilities for wirel... more The rapid evolution of wireless networking technologies has opened up new possibilities for wireless delivery of multimedia services and content. In addition to the standardization efforts of 3GPP and 3GPP2 on third generation mobile networks, new broadband wireless access technologies such as WLANs, WiMAX, Flash-OFDM, and DVB-H are emerging as alternative means to provide services to mobile users. These technologies are also offering possibilities for new players to enter the markets, inducing competition and possibly threatening the businesses of established players.

In this paper, a conceptual framework is constructed for the analysis of emerging wireless technologies and their market potential. The framework is then applied to compare two different technology scenarios: an evolutionary 3GPP-based HSPA-scenario and a disruptive WiMAX-based scenario.

Our framework emphasizes the importance of analyzing the complementary and substitutive nature of technologies, from four essential viewpoints. The end-user viewpoint aims to identify those use cases where the respective technologies can be used to complement and/or substitute existing technologies. The technology viewpoint focuses on analyzing and comparing the relative techno-economic characteristics of the technology alternatives. The value network viewpoint focuses on analyzing the capabilities of the industry players to deliver a “whole product” to the end-users, consisting of networks, terminals, and applications and content. Finally, the viewpoint of policy and
regulation focuses on the external factors having an effect on both the capabilities of the technologies, as well as the strategies and decisions of players in the value network.

Results from the case analysis show that HSPA and WiMAX are mainly substitutes rather than complements from both the end-user and technological performance point-of-view. The outcome of the technological battle between them might have an effect on the structure of the whole mobile industry.

Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 23/2012 © Timo Smura ISBN 978-952-60-4... more Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 23/2012 © Timo Smura ISBN 978-952-60-4524-5 (printed) ISBN 978-952-60-4525-2 (pdf)

The evolution of technology products can be analysed on multiple levels. Product categories go th... more The evolution of technology products can be analysed on multiple levels. Product categories go through continuous evolution determined by the cumulative changes in the features of new product models. This is manifested in the diffusion of new product features and in the increasingly vague boundaries between different product generations. This article develops an approach for planning and forecasting technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features. This is achieved by isolating the phenomena underlying the evolution process, and formulating the process at the product category, product feature, and product
model levels. The approach is derived from these formulations combining the primarily demand-driven product category diffusion and product unit replacement behaviour, and the more supply-driven product feature dissemination. The approach enables meaningful sensitivity analysis including the analysis of discontinuities. The developed approach is applied to characterise the evolution of an example product category of mobile handsets and to forecast the diffusion of mobile handset features using extensive longitudinal and crosssectional data collected from Finland. In consequence, the process of technology product evolution and the phenomenon of product feature dissemination are suggested as extensions to research on product category diffusion and replacement.

The purpose of this research is to understand the behavior and expectations of mobile handset use... more The purpose of this research is to understand the behavior and expectations of mobile handset users towards energy consumption. We analyze mobile handset monitoring traces from subsequent years with N = 253 and 105, and questionnaire studies with N = 155 and 150. The data allows us to study both the actual behavior of the users and their explicit attitudes, expectations, and experiences. Additional difference to prior work is the use of longitudinal data from multiple years and a user sample that is much larger than in earlier studies. We present hypotheses drawn both from literature and from our own experience, and use the datasets to support or refute them. Our results indicate that mobile device users need more detailed and clearer information of the battery status and energy consumption. Moreover, users want to understand how different applications and services affect the energy consumption and to learn what they can do to control it.

Importance of mobile data services is increasing but factual information on their usage is limite... more Importance of mobile data services is increasing but factual information on their usage is limited. This paper analyses the usage of mobile data services in Finland. The use of multiple data sources gives complementary viewpoints to the evolution and usage of the services and the underlying technical components: networks, devices, applications and content. The analysis is descriptive by nature and presents detailed information about the past market evolution, current market situation and trends. The results indicate that the technical components enabling mobile data service usage are spreading. On the basis of the study, a number of mobile data market metrics are suggested.

info, Jan 1, 2009

Purpose – Collecting and analysing data on mobile service usage is increasingly complex as usage ... more Purpose – Collecting and analysing data on mobile service usage is increasingly complex as usage diverges between different types of devices and networks. The purpose of this paper is to suggest and apply a holistic framework that helps in designing mobile service usage research as well as in communicating, positioning, and comparing research results.

Design/methodology/approach – The framework was constructed based on longitudinal and cross-sectional mobile service usage measurements carried out in Finland annually in 2005-2008, covering 80-90 percent of all mobile users and service usage. Broad use of multiple data collection methods and measurement points enabled data and method triangulation, as well as analysis and comparison of their scopes and limitations.

Findings – The paper suggests a holistic framework for analysing mobile services, relying on service science approach. For measurements and analysis, mobile services are decomposed into four technical components: devices, applications, networks, and content. The paper further presents classifications for each component and discusses their relationships with possible measurement points. The framework is applied to mobile browsing usage studies.

Research limitations/implications – Future work includes adding an actors dimension to the framework in order to analyse their roles in the value networks providing mobile services. Extending the framework to Internet services more generally is also possible.

Originality/value – The paper presents an original, broadly applicable framework for designing mobile service usage research, and communicating, positioning, and comparing research results. The framework helps academics and practitioners to design and to recognise the limitations of mobile service usage studies, and to avoid misinterpretations based on insufficient data.

Mobile broadcasting is entering a phase of commercial launches worldwide. However, the related va... more Mobile broadcasting is entering a phase of commercial launches worldwide. However, the related value network remains unclear: the markets and the conventional roles of broadcasters, broadcast network operators and cellular operators are becoming intertwined in an unprecedented manner. This paper proposes a generic model for analysing the mobile broadcast value networks. Building on that model and by applying the methods of techno-economic analysis, simulation-based results are presented on the feasibility of selected mobile broadcast value network configurations in the Finnish market.

Netnomics, Jan 1, 2007

For a company planning to become a mobile operator, two alternative ways to enter the market exis... more For a company planning to become a mobile operator, two alternative ways to enter the market exist. In addition to the traditional way of acquiring a spectrum license and building a mobile network, market entrance is also possible by becoming a virtual operator and utilizing the existing networks of incumbent operators. Potentially, virtual operators will have an important role in shaping the mobile market structure and competition. In this paper, techno-economic modeling methods are used to analyze the position of virtual operators in the mobile communications industry. Four alternative virtual operator scenarios are constructed and analyzed using a linear, deterministic, and quantitative techno-economic model. The results highlight the importance of wholesale contracts with incumbent mobile network operators in determining the virtual operators’ business profitability. Unbalance in termination prices between fixed and mobile networks is shown to give incentives for virtual operators to invest in their own network infrastructure.

info, Jan 1, 2009

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered m... more Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunications industry lately. Integrated operators (who own both fixed and mobile networks), are keen to exploit FMC benefits in order to save costs and generate new revenues. This paper aims to analyze the effects of converged network and service environment on the business of existing telecommunication operators.

Design/methodology/approach – After an introduction to the regulatory, market, and technology related issues of convergence, the authors focus on analyzing the role of FMC technologies and services in their businesses of an integrated operator with existing fixed and mobile operations in a large Western European country.

Findings – Results reveal that an integrated operator can benefit from cost savings, customer retention and prevent revenue erosion by migrating to FMC.

Originality/value – This paper examines the effects of fixed-mobile convergence to an integrated operator.

Telecommunication …, Jan 1, 2009

The importance of analyzing different business models and technologies in the mobile industry has... more The importance of analyzing different business models and technologies in the mobile industry has become more crucial for the investment policy of the telecom operators. This paper aims to cover some of the most interesting business alternatives in providing the new 3G and beyond services including cases where the operator already has an existing second-generation cellular network and perhaps even a license for the 3G UMTS network, and cases where the operator does not have any existing network. Three cases for incumbents and new entrants are foreseen, leaving alternatives for new competing 3G technology deployment or acting as a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) without owning any radio infrastructure. A techno-economic approach has been used to identify business opportunities and quantify the potential profitability of different kind of business players. The scenarios have been analyzed in the Western European context by different country groups that are not exactly representative of any defined country, but rather share typical demographic characteristics.

Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) radio networks offer an alternative way t... more Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) radio networks offer an alternative way to provide fixed, nomadic, and mobile broadband services to businesses and consumers. In these markets, it is both complementing and competing with other access technologies such as asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL), wireless local area network (LAN), and third-generation (3G) mobile networks. The success of WiMAX
requires the technology to reach performance and cost levels comparable or superior to these other technologies, which already have an established position in the market. This chapter analyzes the competitive potential of fixed WiMAX networks in different market conditions. A quantitative techno-economic model is constructed for analyzing fixed WiMAX network deployments in urban, suburban, and rural areas. The model is used to assess the coverage, capacity, and cost characteristics of WiMAX systems, in contrast to the competing access technologies.

The growing amount of mobile data traffic increases the demand for local area network deployments... more The growing amount of mobile data traffic increases the demand for local area network deployments and is therefore likely to have an effect on the mobile communications ecosystem. Several alternative value network configurations exist giving new business opportunities to different actors, but the attractiveness and the success of local area access provisioning remains uncertain. This study analyzes the business of public local area access from the point of view of two potential providers: mobile operators and service application providers. A quantitative techno-economic model is constructed to quantify the costs and required revenues of operating public LA access networks. The results show that the revenue requirements vary between public LA venue types and value network configurations.

2009 Eighth International Conference on …, Jan 1, 2009

Mobile handsets have evolved into advanced devices with a rich variety of hardware and software f... more Mobile handsets have evolved into advanced devices with a rich variety of hardware and software features. These features enable the use of completely new mobile services that complement and substitute the traditional voice calling and text messaging services. Therefore, instead of the diffusion of mobile handsets, the diffusion of new mobile handset features has become an increasingly important research topic. In this paper, the diffusion patterns of mobile handset features were compared quantitatively based on an extensive and unique dataset on mobile handsets collected from Finland. Mobile handset features are new technologies that diffuse within the existing population of mobile handsets. A first attempt to quantitatively model such ldquonested diffusionrdquo was made. Moreover, handset features form clusters of technologies with interdependent diffusion patterns. The decisions to bundle features together are made by handset manufacturers. Therefore, the diffusion of handset features was found to be supply-driven.

Mobile Business, 2009. ICMB 2009. Eighth …, Jan 1, 2009

Indoor deployments of wireless access points will likely be required to fulfill the future traffi... more Indoor deployments of wireless access points will likely be required to fulfill the future traffic capacity requirements. Considerable uncertainty exists, however, about the technologies utilized to provide local area access, as well as the roles of different actors in the value network providing mobile services. We apply Schoemakerpsilas scenario planning method to identify and analyze the key uncertainties and to construct four alternative and plausible future scenarios having different implications to local area access technologies and business models. The results are valuable in designing wireless technologies and standards for the future, as well as in pointing out the role of local area access provisioning as a potential control point in the mobile services business.

Proceedings of the ITS 17th Biennial Conference, …, Jan 1, 2008

Telecommunications Internet and …, Jan 1, 2010

Rapidly growing demand for ubiquitous wireless access is presenting significant challenges to the... more Rapidly growing demand for ubiquitous wireless access is presenting significant challenges to the scalability of the existing mobile wide area (WA) network infrastructure. This is increasing the importance of wireless local area (LA) access points (AP) and base stations (BS) residing in indoor locations. Uncertainty exists over who will control this, potentially very valuable part of the mobile service delivery infrastructure and there are many interested actors in position of coupling local area access to their existing platform. In this paper we conduct an analysis of possible Value Network Configurations (VNC) that could emerge around wireless local area access. We construct seven alternative Value Network Configurations by identifying important roles related to wireless local area access provisioning, the corresponding drivers and actors in position of taking on these roles. The identification and description of these configurations clarifies the different possible evolution paths for wireless local area access provisioning and acts as a basis for the design of corresponding future technologies and regulatory policies.

… , 2007. CTTE 2007. …, Jan 1, 2007

In recent years, fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunicati... more In recent years, fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunications industry. FMC is expected to offer benefits for network and service operators as well as end-users. Integrated operators (who own both fixed and mobile networks), are keen to exploit these benefits in order to save costs and generate new revenues. However, such operators are also faced with the challenge of identifying an appropriate roadmap for FMC migration in order to prevent substitution effects or conflict of interest among their own fixed and network operations. In this paper, we present results and analysis of an FMC migration case study for an integrated operator in a Western European market. The additional benefits achieved by the operator are quantified, with suggestions for migration strategies. Results of the study show that an integrated operator can benefit from cost savings, customer retention and prevent revenue erosion by migrating to FMC.

17th European Regional ITS Conference, Jan 1, 2006

The rapid evolution of wireless networking technologies has opened up new possibilities for wirel... more The rapid evolution of wireless networking technologies has opened up new possibilities for wireless delivery of multimedia services and content. In addition to the standardization efforts of 3GPP and 3GPP2 on third generation mobile networks, new broadband wireless access technologies such as WLANs, WiMAX, Flash-OFDM, and DVB-H are emerging as alternative means to provide services to mobile users. These technologies are also offering possibilities for new players to enter the markets, inducing competition and possibly threatening the businesses of established players.

In this paper, a conceptual framework is constructed for the analysis of emerging wireless technologies and their market potential. The framework is then applied to compare two different technology scenarios: an evolutionary 3GPP-based HSPA-scenario and a disruptive WiMAX-based scenario.

Our framework emphasizes the importance of analyzing the complementary and substitutive nature of technologies, from four essential viewpoints. The end-user viewpoint aims to identify those use cases where the respective technologies can be used to complement and/or substitute existing technologies. The technology viewpoint focuses on analyzing and comparing the relative techno-economic characteristics of the technology alternatives. The value network viewpoint focuses on analyzing the capabilities of the industry players to deliver a “whole product” to the end-users, consisting of networks, terminals, and applications and content. Finally, the viewpoint of policy and
regulation focuses on the external factors having an effect on both the capabilities of the technologies, as well as the strategies and decisions of players in the value network.

Results from the case analysis show that HSPA and WiMAX are mainly substitutes rather than complements from both the end-user and technological performance point-of-view. The outcome of the technological battle between them might have an effect on the structure of the whole mobile industry.