yusuf akbas | Adıyaman University (original) (raw)

Papers by yusuf akbas

… University Journal of …, 2011

Petrol fiyatları ekonomik aktiviteler üzerinde çeşitli kanallardan etkiye yol açmaktadır. Son dön... more Petrol fiyatları ekonomik aktiviteler üzerinde çeşitli kanallardan etkiye yol açmaktadır. Son dönemlerdeki birçok çalışma petrol fiyatlarının makro ekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki rolü üzerinde durmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye'de petrol fiyatlarıyla işsizlik arasındaki kısa/uzun dönemli ilişkiyi ortaya çıkarmaktır. 30 Yılı aşkın süredir petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın en yaygın sebebi olarak arzdaki azalmalar gösterilmektedir. 1970'lerin başında arzdaki azalmalar nedeniyle petrol fiyatları artmıştır. Bununla birlikte 1970'lerin sonunda ve 1980'lerin başında İran Şahı hükümetinin devrilmesi ve bunu izleyen İran-Irak savaşı sonucu arzdaki azalmalar da petrol fiyatlarının artmasında etken olmuştur. Çalışmamızda Türkiye'de 2005:01 ve 2009:12 döneminde petrol fiyatlarının işsizliği ne şekilde etkilediğini ortaya çıkarmak için Granger Nedensellik Modeli uygulanmıştır. Bununla beraber, sözü edilen değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin saptanması, tahmini ve gecikme değerlerinin elde edilmesi amacıyla Vektör Otoregresif Modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak; Türkiye'de petrol fiyatları ile işsizlik oranı arasında uzun dönemli ilişki mevcuttur. İşsizlik oranındaki değişmeler petrol fiyatlarını etkilememekte, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişiklikler işsizlik oranını etkilemektedir. Nitekim bu etki ters yönlüdür.

Turizm gelirleri cari islemler aciginin giderilmesinde onemli bir role sahiptir. Turkiye ekonomis... more Turizm gelirleri cari islemler aciginin giderilmesinde onemli bir role sahiptir. Turkiye ekonomisinde cari acigin finansmani son yillarda cokca tartisilan bir konu olmustur. Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye’de turizm gelirleri ve cari islemler dengesi arasindaki iliskiyi 2003:Q1-2017:Q4 donemi icin uzun donemli Yapisal VAR yontemiyle analiz etmektir. Calismanin etki tepki analizleri bulgulari, turizm gelirlerinde bir sok meydana geldiginde 2. doneme kadar cari islemler dengesini pozitif etkiledigini gostermistir. Bu sonuc, turizm gelirlerinin cari acik uzerinde etkili oldugunu gostermektedir. Calismanin varyans ayristirma test sonuclarina gore, cari islemler dengesindeki degismelerin %90’i yine kendinde meydana gelen soktan kaynaklanmaktadir. Yalniz, bu etki giderek azalmaktadir. Cari islemler dengesi uzerinde turizm gelirlerinin etkisi ise %10’dur. Buna gore cari islemler dengesinde meydana gelen degisimin %10’u turizm gelirlerinden kaynaklanmaktadir. Ayrica, bu etki giderek artmaktadir

Panoeconomicus, 2013

In this study, countries were analyzed between 1990 and 2011 in order to determine whether a caus... more In this study, countries were analyzed between 1990 and 2011 in order to determine whether a causal relationship exists among current account deficit, GDP, foreign direct investment, and total credits of G7. Analysis took into account the cross-sectional dependence and was applied to test the causality among the variables form the panel. Firstly, panel unit root tests were used for determining stationary of variables. As a result of the panel unit root tests, it was found that GDP and foreign direct investment have a stationary structure and that total credits and current account deficit contain unit root. In order to see whether there is a long-term relationship among the variables or not, the panel co-integration test was used. As a result of the test, it was concluded that there is a co-integration relationship among the series. The possibility of a causal relationship was analyzed among the variables using the causality test developed by Elena Ivona Dumitrescu and Christophe Hur...

In this study, it was investigated whether there is a causality relationship between financial de... more In this study, it was investigated whether there is a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in emerging market countries. Data from the period between 1988 and 2013 was analyzed using the bootstrap panel causality test, which takes cross-section dependence and heterogeneity into account. The results of the test showed that there is a weak causal relationship between economic growth and financial development support the neutrality hypothesis in emerging countries, except for Turkey.

Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2015

In this study, it was analyzed the structure of stationary of Istanbul Stock Exchange return rate... more In this study, it was analyzed the structure of stationary of Istanbul Stock Exchange return rate and interest rate series and whether it’s are linear in the period of 1986:01-2012:07. It was used linearity and unit root tests developed by Caner and Hansen (2002). As a result of these tests, it was concluded that the series are non-linear and both of series have two regimes. Besides, it was concluded that both of two regimes have unit root in the series of interest rate and first regime has stationary, second regime has also unit root in Istanbul Stock Exchange return rate series. Finally, the model in which Istanbul Stock Exchange is dependent variable, interest rate is explanatory variable was analyzed whether there is a co integration with Hansen-Seo (2002) test. As a result of analysis it was determined the co integration relationship between the interest rate and Istanbul Stock Exchange return rate.

Bu calismada, uluslararasi altin ve petrol fiyatlarinin Amerikan dolari ile etkilesimi 1989:01 ve... more Bu calismada, uluslararasi altin ve petrol fiyatlarinin Amerikan dolari ile etkilesimi 1989:01 ve 2013:12 donemi icin arastirilmistir. Bu baglamda oncelikle ADF ve DF-GLS birim kok testleri yapilmistir. Bu test sonuclarina gore her uc degisken de birinci farki alinmak suretiyle duragan hale gelmektedir. Birim kok testlerinin ardindan Vektor Otoregresif (VAR) modeli etki tepki analizi gerceklestirilmistir. Buna gore, Amerikan dolarinda meydana gelen bir standart hatalik sok altin ve petrol fiyatlarini negatif etkilerken, altin ve petrol fiyatlarinda meydana gelen bir standart hatalik sok, Amerikan dolarini negatif, birbirlerini ise pozitif etkilemektedir.

Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 2012

In this study, Wald tests are carried out based on the method of Panel Granger and GMM to determi... more In this study, Wald tests are carried out based on the method of Panel Granger and GMM to determine whether the causal relationship between economic growth and current budget deficit, short-term capital flows in 20 OECD countries for the period 1990-2010. Also SURADF and CADF testing was performed with the CDLM to test the stationary for these three variables. As a result of the panel causality tests, it has been determined a causal relationship from the current account deficit and short-term capital flows towards economic growth and from the current account deficit towards the short-term capital.

Applied Economics, 2019

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on t... more In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.

Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 2014

The aim of this study is to investigate the concept of triplet deficits in Turkey between 1980 an... more The aim of this study is to investigate the concept of triplet deficits in Turkey between 1980 and 2010. "Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger Causality Analysis" was performed in order to determine the direction of the relationship among the variables. In addition, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Variance Decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis were performed to determine the degree to which variables affected each other. The study finds that triplet deficit hypothesis was valid in Turkey between 1980 and 2010.

Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2014

In this study; it is investigated that gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (F... more In this study; it is investigated that gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) and aggregate credits (CR) relationship of seven developing countries over the period of 1982-2010. Firstly, CDLM tests were applied to detect the cross-sectional dependency. Then, SURADF and CADF tests were applied. According to cross-sectional augmented panel unit root test (CIPS) result that detect if the entire panel carries a unit root, is consistent with SURADF and CADF test results. Finally, cointegration is determined among GDP, FDI and CR in all cases via Westerlund (2007)) Error Correction and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Bootstrap panel cointegration tests.

This paper investigates the causality relationship between savings and economic growth in Turkey ... more This paper investigates the causality relationship between savings and economic growth in Turkey from 1961 to 2012 using the bootstrap, process-based, Toda-Yamamoto, linear Granger causality test. According to empirical analyses, a bidirectional causality exists between savings and economic growth in Turkey. Thus we can say that the feedback hypothesis is valid. That is, both the Keynes and the Solow model are relevant for Turkey.

In this study, it was analysed whether monetary policies have an effect on stock price index in 1... more In this study, it was analysed whether monetary policies have an effect on stock price index in 13 OECD countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States) with High Income Level for the period after 2008 financial crisis (2010-2013). In the analysis results, it was determined that there is a unidirectional relationship from short term interest rates and M1 money supply towards stock price indexes; and a unidirectional relationship from stock price index towards interbank interest rates and M3 money supply. In this respect, it was concluded that effectiveness of monetary policies in 13 OECD countries with high-income level are weak after 2008 financial crisis.

In this study, it was analysed if there is a short and long term relationship among the current d... more In this study, it was analysed if there is a short and long term relationship among the current deficit, short-term capital movements and the economic growth within the periods of 1998Q1-2011Q4 in Turkey. It was used to Autoregressive Distributed Lag model for analyzing the series. As a result of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model test, it was confirmed the co-integration relationship among the series related to current deficit, economic growth and short term capital flows in short term and long term.

Government is fighting with the black economy particularly in the relatively underdeveloped regio... more Government is fighting with the black economy particularly in the relatively underdeveloped regions of our country. In this regard, the searches for a solution to the black economy in the underdeveloped regions have being used for both maintaining inter regional income distribution equity and also reducing the poverty. In this study, the monetary ratio will be used in order to estimate the black economy and Republic of Turkey Central Bank database will be used in this regard. And in the appraisals with regards to the poverty the parameters of interregional income distribution and some kind of social development parameters obtained from TurkStat (Turkish Statistical Institute) and SPO (State Planning Organization). As a summary this study is aiming to put forth that whether the solution searches to the black economy may bring a solution to the poverty in the long run as well.

International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research

Hisse senedi fiyat endeksi ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin analizi: Türkiye ör... more Hisse senedi fiyat endeksi ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin analizi: Türkiye örneği The analysis of the relationship between stock price index and the macroeconomic variables: Turkey example

Ege Akademik Bakis (Ege Academic Review), 2013

Bu calismada, 1990:M01-2012:M09 doneminde Turkiye’nin; Fransa, Almanya, Hollanda, Italya, Ispanya... more Bu calismada, 1990:M01-2012:M09 doneminde Turkiye’nin; Fransa, Almanya, Hollanda, Italya, Ispanya, Ingiltere, Belcika, Luksemburg, Danimarka, Rusya Federasyonu, ABD, Iran, Suudi Arabistan, Cin, Birlesik Arap Emirlikleri ve Irak ile gerceklestir-mis oldugu ithalat ve ihracat islemlerininbirbirine bagimli olup olmadigi analiz edilmistir. Ilk olarak ithalat ve ihracat serilerinin birim kok icerip icermedigi Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979), Zivot-Andrew (1992) ve Lumsdaine-Papell (1997) birim kok testleriyle analiz edilmistir. Bu testlerin sonucunda ithalat ve ihracat serilerinin birim kok icerdigi tespit edilmistir. Daha sonra ithalat ile ihracat serisi arasinda uzun donemli iliski olup olmadigini anlayabilmek icin Hatemi-J testi kullanilmistir. Bu test sonucunda ithalat ve ihracat serileri arasinda esbutunlesme oldugu tespit edilerek, Turkiye’nin calismaya konu olan bu 16 ulkeyle gerceklestirmis olduguihracat ve ithalat islemlerinde bagimlilik oldugu sonucuna varilmistir.

Kadin ve erkekler icin firsat esitliginin saglanmasi AB’nin sosyal politikasi kapsaminda ele alin... more Kadin ve erkekler icin firsat esitliginin saglanmasi AB’nin sosyal politikasi kapsaminda ele alinmaktadir. Kadin ve erkeklere esit firsatlar taninmasi; demokrasinin temel prensibi olarak gorulmekte, Birligin gelecekte ekonomik basari ve sosyal bir butunluk saglayabilmesinin cok onemli bir unsuru olarak kabul edilmektedir. Dunyadaki ekonomik ve sosyal gelismeler AB’nin sosyal politikalarina yon vermis ve bu gelismeler paralelinde Birligin sosyal politikalari da degisim ve gelisim gostermistir. Kadinlarin toplumdaki konumunun yukseltilmesine imkan veren cinsiyete duyarli butce yaklasiminin dunyadaki ilk uygulama orneklerine Avustralya’da rastlanmaktadir. Bu baglamda; gerek AB’de, gerekse diger gelismis ve gelismekte olan ulkelerde ekonomik, siyasal ve sosyal yapilara gore toplumsal cinsiyet esitsizligi dikkate alinmak suretiyle butceleme calismalari (cinsiyete duyarli butce-sosyal butceleme) yapilmaktadir. Bu calismada, butcelemede kaynaklarin kadin ve erkeklerin onceliklerine gore tahsisini ve cinsiyet ayrimciliginin azaltilmasi icin kullanilmasini ongoren cinsiyete duyarli butce yaklasimi; oncelikle Turkiye ile AB mukayese edilmek suretiyle, diger gelismis ve gelismekte olan ulkelerden de ornekler verilerek incelenmeye calisilmistir.

Journal of Yaşar University, 2014

enflasyon oranı arasında karşılıklı ilişkinin varlığı incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, öncelikle seril... more enflasyon oranı arasında karşılıklı ilişkinin varlığı incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, öncelikle serilerin durağanlıkları PP ve KPSS birim kök testleri ile sınanmıştır. Ayrıca, serilerde meydana gelen kırılmaları tespit etmek amacıyla Zivot-Andrews (1992) yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Son olarak ise, seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin tespiti için Toda-Yamamoto (1995) ve bootstrap nedensellik testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, sanayi üretim endeksi ve enflasyon oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.