Phil Fellman | American Military University (original) (raw)

Papers by Phil Fellman

Center for nonproliferation studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2011

Assessing the risk of terrorism, and terrorist threats is a difficult and complex undertaking. As... more Assessing the risk of terrorism, and terrorist threats is a difficult and complex undertaking. As we have argued elsewhere (Fellman, 2011), official government estimates produced by national boards have a tendency to use probabilistic language in a rather loose fashion, placing excessive emphasis on often ill-defined or incomplete analytical models. In this paper, we review some of the methodological difficulties highlighted by the National Research Council Report―Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk ...

2008 12th International Conference Information Visualisation, 2008

This map yields a number of interesting properties. Using measures of centrality, Krebs' work ana... more This map yields a number of interesting properties. Using measures of centrality, Krebs' work analyzes the dynamics of the network. In this regard, he also illuminates the centrality measure's sensitivity to changes in nodes and links. In terms of utility as a counter-intelligence tool, the mapping exposes a concentration of links around the pilots, an organizational weakness which could have been used against the hijackers had the mapping been available prior to, rather than after the disaster, suggesting the utility of developing these tools as an ongoing mechanism for combating terrorism.

Understanding Complex Systems, 2015

Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the best research and academic-lev... more Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the best research and academic-level teaching on both fundamental and applied aspects of complex systems-cutting across all traditional disciplines of the natural and life sciences, engineering, economics, medicine, neuroscience, social and computer science. Complex Systems are systems that comprise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macroscopic collective behavior the manifestations of which are the spontaneous formation of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. Models of such systems can be successfully mapped onto quite diverse "real-life" situations like the climate, the coherent emission of light from lasers, chemical reaction-diffusion systems, biological cellular networks, the dynamics of stock markets and of the internet, earthquake statistics and prediction, freeway traffi c, the human brain, or the formation of opinions in social systems, to name just some of the popular applications. Although their scope and methodologies overlap somewhat, one can distinguish the following main concepts and tools: self-organization, nonlinear dynamics, synergetics, turbulence, dynamical systems, catastrophes, instabilities, stochastic processes, chaos, graphs and networks, cellular automata, adaptive systems, genetic algorithms and computational intelligence. The three major book publication platforms of the Springer Complexity program are the monograph series "Understanding Complex Systems" focusing on the various applications of complexity, the "Springer Series in Synergetics", which is devoted to the quantitative theoretical and methodological foundations, and the "Springer Briefs in Complexity" which are concise and topical working reports, case-studies, surveys, essays and lecture notes of relevance to the fi eld. In addition to the books in these two core series, the program also incorporates individual titles ranging from textbooks to major reference works.

Global Business and Organizational Excellence, 2007

The dynamic financial environment of Central and Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination ... more The dynamic financial environment of Central and Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination of "best practices" in the banking industry through analysis of common patterns in banking and finance. We explain the specific practices that have led to successful adaptation on the part of international banks like ABN AMRO in Romania and to Romanian financial markets. In general, we have found, through a series of case studies designed to assess best practices, that the best performing strategies are those which are based upon "distributed decision making," allowing for decisive action and rapid organizational learning at the local level. In order for rapid organizational learning to take place, efficient business relationships are critical to the firm's functioning. In addition, the firm must develop a substantial diversity in both its internal and external networks.

arXiv: Physics and Society, 2018

In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that... more In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlie fourth-generation warfare. We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events from a Complexity perspective by using a threshold-type percolation model. We propose to integrate this strategic level model with tactical level Big Data, behavioral, statistical projections via a fractal operational level model and to construct a hierarchical framework that allows dynamic prediction. Our initial study concentrates on this strategic level, i.e. a percolation model. Our main conclusion from this initial study is that extremist terrorist events are not solely driven by the size of a supporting population within a socio-geographical location but rather a combination of ideological factors that also depends upon the involvement of the host population. This involvement, through the social, political and psychological fabric of society, not ...

In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and qua... more In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and quantum mechanics to that of the Sarfatti post-quantum mechanics perspective. We examine the nature of quantum equilibrium and non-equilibrium and uncertainty following the Sarfatti description of this theoretical development, which serves to extend the statistical linear unitary quantum mechanics for closed systems to a locally-retrocausal, non-statistical, non-linear, non-unitary theory for open systems. We discuss how the Bohmian quantum potential has a dependence upon the position of its Bell beable and how Complexity mathematics describes the self-organizing feedback between the quantum potential and its beable allowing nonlocal communication.

International Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical Physics, 2012

Unifying Themes in Complex Systems, 2011

10 Those unfamiliar with the mechanics of Boolean networks can obtain a very simple, straightforw... more 10 Those unfamiliar with the mechanics of Boolean networks can obtain a very simple, straightforward explanation with examples from Torsten Reil's "An Introduction to Complex Systems", Department of Zoology, Oxford University at http://users.ox.ac.uk/~quee0818/complexity/complexity.html Vladimir Redko provides a slightly more mathematical treatment at http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/BOOLNETW.html 11 Ibid. No. 4 12 See, for example, Reaume, David "Walras, complexity, and Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Collander David, Ed. Beyond Microfoundations: Post Walrasian Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press 1996 13 The search property of organisms seeking maximal fitness levels allows one to draw some additional, strong conclusions about both organisms and landscapes.

In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interp... more In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics and how this interpretation could be extended so a particle was not just guided by the quantum potential, but in turn, through back-activity, modified the quantum potential field. Back-activity introduces nonlinearity into the evolution of the wave function, much like the bidirectional nonlinear interaction of space-time and matter-energy in general relativity. This generalisation has been called Post Quantum Mechanics. The mathematical exposition presented therein is developed in the present paper, linking Dimensional Analysis, Fractal Tessellation and Self Organized Criticality to describe new mechanisms of superluminal information transfer and the mechanisms for exploiting closed timelike curves.

In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interp... more In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics and how this interpretation could be extended so a particle was not just guided by the quantum potential, but in turn,through back-activity, modified the quantum potential field. Back-activity introduces nonlinearity into the evolution of the wave function, much like the bidirectional nonlinear interaction of space-time and matter-energy in general relativity. This generalisation has been called Post Quantum Mechanics. The mathematical exposition presented therein is developed in the present paper, linking Dimensional Analysis, Fractal Tessellation and Self Organized Criticality to describe new mechanisms of superluminal information transfer and the mechanisms for exploiting closed timelike curves. 2

In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and qua... more In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and quantum mechanics to that of a post-quantum mechanics (PQM) perspective. We examine the nature of quantum equilibrium/non-equilibrium and uncertainty to extend the statistical linear unitary quantum mechanics for closed systems to a locally-retrocausal, non-statistical, non-linear, non-unitary theory for open systems. We discuss how the Bohemian quantum potential has a dependence upon the position of its Bell 'beable' and how Complexity mathematics describes the self-organising feedback between the quantum potential and its beable allowing nonlocal communication. 2

In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that... more In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlies fourth-generation warfare (4GW). We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events (i.e. the 'Physics') from a Complexity perspective by using a threshold-type percolation model. We propose to integrate this strategic level model with tactical level Big Data, behavioral, statistical projections via a 'fractal' operational level model and to construct a hierarchical framework that allows dynamic prediction. Our initial study concentrates on this strategic level, i.e. a percolation model. Our main conclusion from this initial study is that extremist terrorist events are not solely driven by the size of a supporting population within a socio-geographical location but rather a combination of ideological factors that also depends upon the involvement of the host population. This involvement, through the social, political and psychological fabric of society, not only contributes to the active participation of terrorists within society but also directly contributes to and increases the likelihood of the occurrence of terrorist events. Our calculations demonstrate the links between Islamic extremist terrorist events, the ideologies within the Muslim and non-Muslim population that facilitates these terrorist events (such as Anti-Zionism) and anti-Semitic occurrences of violence against the Jewish population. In a future paper, we hope to extend the work undertaken to construct a predictive model and extend our calculations to other forms of terrorism such as Right Wing fundamentalist terrorist events within the USA.

Complexity science affords a number of novel tools for examining terrorism, particularly network ... more Complexity science affords a number of novel tools for examining terrorism, particularly network analysis and NK-Boolean fitness landscapes. The following paper explores various aspects of terrorist networks which can be illuminated through applications of non-linear dynamical systems modeling to terrorist network structures. Of particular interest are some of the emergent properties of terrorist networks as typified by the 9-11 hijackers network, properties of centrality, hierarchy and distance, as well as ways in which attempts to disrupt the transmission of information through terrorist networks may be expected to produce greater or lesser levels of fitness in those organizations.

In the following paper we step outside of the traditional domain of international business theory... more In the following paper we step outside of the traditional domain of international business theory. Using techniques from mathematical economics and from recent developments in game theory, we develop a predictive tool aimed at providing elements of a prescriptive methodology for strategic international market entry.

In this review article we compare the recent work of Peter Lynds, "On a finite universe with no b... more In this review article we compare the recent work of Peter Lynds, "On a finite universe with no beginning or end", with that of Stephen Hawking, primarily "Quantum Cosmology, M-Theory, and the Anthropic Principle", and two foundational works by Sean M. Carroll and Jennifer Chen, "Does Inflation Provide Natural Conditions for the Universe" and "Spontaneous Inflation and the Origin of the Arrow of Time", in order to evaluate their comparative treatments of the nature and role of causality, time ordering, thermodynamic reversibility, singularities and boundary conditions in the formation of the early universe. We briefly reference Smolin and Kauffman's recent arguments with respect to possible processes of "evolutionary selection" in early universe formation as an alternative explanation to key elements of Hawking's earlier "M-Theory", and its attendant anthropic principle. We also briefly excerpt a short section of Smolin's recent work on topology in quantum loop gravity, simply as an illustrative example of the type of complex quantum topological transformation which he offers as a theoretical alternative to string theory in quantum cosmology.

In this paper we follow our earlier work on the mathematical and computational modeling of biolog... more In this paper we follow our earlier work on the mathematical and computational modeling of biological warfare and its potential extensions to nuclear terrorism. In particular
we review Dr. Parnell’s earlier critique of the proper and improper use of probabilities, scenarios and the emergent properties of terrorism undertaken in conjunction with the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineers and the National Institute of Health. As indicated in the earlier report published by the National Academies Press
(http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12206&page=3) we extend the argument that:
―The DHS (2006) report and DHS presentations of its content use inconsistent, imprecise technical language and do not define many key terms.

In this paper, we develop the themes presented at the 2003 Joint Complexity Conference at the Lon... more In this paper, we develop the themes presented at the 2003 Joint Complexity Conference at the London School of Economics and subsequently published in The Intelligencer (2004) and O Tempo Das Redes (2008). Following the data analysis of the 9/11 high-jacker network developed by Valdis Krebs from open sources, we apply social network theory to examine salient arguments regarding terrorism as seen from the standpoint of complex adaptive systems theory. In particular, we explore the concepts of group cohesion, adhesion and alternative network mappings derived from node removal.

Notions of Darwinian selection have been implicit in economic theory for at least sixty years. Ri... more Notions of Darwinian selection have been implicit in economic theory for at least sixty years. Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter have argued that while evolutionary thinking was prevalent in prewar economics, the postwar Neoclassical school became almost entirely preoccupied with equilibrium conditions and their mathematical conditions. One of the problems with the economic interpretation of firm selection through competition has been a weak grasp on an incomplete scientific paradigm. As I.F. Price notes, "The biological metaphor has long lurked in the background of management theory largely because the message of 'survival of the fittest' (usually wrongly attributed to Charles Darwin rather than Herbert Spencer) provides a seemingly natural model for market competition (e.g. Alchian 1950, Merrell 1984, Henderson 1989, Moore 1993), without seriously challenging the underlying paradigms of what an organisation is." In this paper we examine the application of dynamic fitness landscape models to economic theory, particularly the theory of technology substitution, drawing on recent work by Kauffman, Arthur, McKelvey, Nelson and Winter, and Windrum and Birchenhall. In particular we use Professor Post's early work with John Holland on the genetic algorithm to explain some of the key differences between static and dynamic approaches to economic modeling. This paper is a preprint of a chapter from Unifying Themes in Complex Systems V, Ed. Ali Minai, Dan Braha and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Springer Verlag, 2011.

The dynamic financial environment of Central and Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination ... more The dynamic financial environment of Central and
Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination of
“best practices” in the banking industry through
analysis of common patterns in banking and finance.
We explain the specific practices that have led to successful
adaptation on the part of international banks
like ABN AMRO in Romania and to Romanian
financial markets.
In general, we have found, through a series of case
studies designed to assess best practices, that the
best performing strategies are those which are based
upon “distributed decision making,” allowing for
decisive action and rapid organizational learning at
the local level. In order for rapid organizational
learning to take place, efficient business relationships
are critical to the firm’s functioning. In addition,
the firm must develop a substantial diversity
in both its internal and external networks.

The purpose of the following paper is to demonstrate that the "limits of physics" are in a very i... more The purpose of the following paper is to demonstrate that the "limits of physics" are in a very important way determined by the conceptual framework and language of discourse that we use to describe physical reality. In this paper we examine three areas where the structure of discourse has been particularly difficult. In this regard we examine three problems, the problem of time (which is discussed in two sections of the paper), the problem of non-locality in quantum mechanics and some related general difficulties of interpretation specific to the Copenhagen school, and the concept of maximality as it is employed with respect to cosmic inflation in general relativity and quantum cosmology.

Center for nonproliferation studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2011

Assessing the risk of terrorism, and terrorist threats is a difficult and complex undertaking. As... more Assessing the risk of terrorism, and terrorist threats is a difficult and complex undertaking. As we have argued elsewhere (Fellman, 2011), official government estimates produced by national boards have a tendency to use probabilistic language in a rather loose fashion, placing excessive emphasis on often ill-defined or incomplete analytical models. In this paper, we review some of the methodological difficulties highlighted by the National Research Council Report―Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk ...

2008 12th International Conference Information Visualisation, 2008

This map yields a number of interesting properties. Using measures of centrality, Krebs' work ana... more This map yields a number of interesting properties. Using measures of centrality, Krebs' work analyzes the dynamics of the network. In this regard, he also illuminates the centrality measure's sensitivity to changes in nodes and links. In terms of utility as a counter-intelligence tool, the mapping exposes a concentration of links around the pilots, an organizational weakness which could have been used against the hijackers had the mapping been available prior to, rather than after the disaster, suggesting the utility of developing these tools as an ongoing mechanism for combating terrorism.

Understanding Complex Systems, 2015

Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the best research and academic-lev... more Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the best research and academic-level teaching on both fundamental and applied aspects of complex systems-cutting across all traditional disciplines of the natural and life sciences, engineering, economics, medicine, neuroscience, social and computer science. Complex Systems are systems that comprise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macroscopic collective behavior the manifestations of which are the spontaneous formation of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. Models of such systems can be successfully mapped onto quite diverse "real-life" situations like the climate, the coherent emission of light from lasers, chemical reaction-diffusion systems, biological cellular networks, the dynamics of stock markets and of the internet, earthquake statistics and prediction, freeway traffi c, the human brain, or the formation of opinions in social systems, to name just some of the popular applications. Although their scope and methodologies overlap somewhat, one can distinguish the following main concepts and tools: self-organization, nonlinear dynamics, synergetics, turbulence, dynamical systems, catastrophes, instabilities, stochastic processes, chaos, graphs and networks, cellular automata, adaptive systems, genetic algorithms and computational intelligence. The three major book publication platforms of the Springer Complexity program are the monograph series "Understanding Complex Systems" focusing on the various applications of complexity, the "Springer Series in Synergetics", which is devoted to the quantitative theoretical and methodological foundations, and the "Springer Briefs in Complexity" which are concise and topical working reports, case-studies, surveys, essays and lecture notes of relevance to the fi eld. In addition to the books in these two core series, the program also incorporates individual titles ranging from textbooks to major reference works.

Global Business and Organizational Excellence, 2007

The dynamic financial environment of Central and Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination ... more The dynamic financial environment of Central and Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination of "best practices" in the banking industry through analysis of common patterns in banking and finance. We explain the specific practices that have led to successful adaptation on the part of international banks like ABN AMRO in Romania and to Romanian financial markets. In general, we have found, through a series of case studies designed to assess best practices, that the best performing strategies are those which are based upon "distributed decision making," allowing for decisive action and rapid organizational learning at the local level. In order for rapid organizational learning to take place, efficient business relationships are critical to the firm's functioning. In addition, the firm must develop a substantial diversity in both its internal and external networks.

arXiv: Physics and Society, 2018

In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that... more In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlie fourth-generation warfare. We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events from a Complexity perspective by using a threshold-type percolation model. We propose to integrate this strategic level model with tactical level Big Data, behavioral, statistical projections via a fractal operational level model and to construct a hierarchical framework that allows dynamic prediction. Our initial study concentrates on this strategic level, i.e. a percolation model. Our main conclusion from this initial study is that extremist terrorist events are not solely driven by the size of a supporting population within a socio-geographical location but rather a combination of ideological factors that also depends upon the involvement of the host population. This involvement, through the social, political and psychological fabric of society, not ...

In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and qua... more In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and quantum mechanics to that of the Sarfatti post-quantum mechanics perspective. We examine the nature of quantum equilibrium and non-equilibrium and uncertainty following the Sarfatti description of this theoretical development, which serves to extend the statistical linear unitary quantum mechanics for closed systems to a locally-retrocausal, non-statistical, non-linear, non-unitary theory for open systems. We discuss how the Bohmian quantum potential has a dependence upon the position of its Bell beable and how Complexity mathematics describes the self-organizing feedback between the quantum potential and its beable allowing nonlocal communication.

International Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical Physics, 2012

Unifying Themes in Complex Systems, 2011

10 Those unfamiliar with the mechanics of Boolean networks can obtain a very simple, straightforw... more 10 Those unfamiliar with the mechanics of Boolean networks can obtain a very simple, straightforward explanation with examples from Torsten Reil's "An Introduction to Complex Systems", Department of Zoology, Oxford University at http://users.ox.ac.uk/~quee0818/complexity/complexity.html Vladimir Redko provides a slightly more mathematical treatment at http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/BOOLNETW.html 11 Ibid. No. 4 12 See, for example, Reaume, David "Walras, complexity, and Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Collander David, Ed. Beyond Microfoundations: Post Walrasian Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press 1996 13 The search property of organisms seeking maximal fitness levels allows one to draw some additional, strong conclusions about both organisms and landscapes.

In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interp... more In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics and how this interpretation could be extended so a particle was not just guided by the quantum potential, but in turn, through back-activity, modified the quantum potential field. Back-activity introduces nonlinearity into the evolution of the wave function, much like the bidirectional nonlinear interaction of space-time and matter-energy in general relativity. This generalisation has been called Post Quantum Mechanics. The mathematical exposition presented therein is developed in the present paper, linking Dimensional Analysis, Fractal Tessellation and Self Organized Criticality to describe new mechanisms of superluminal information transfer and the mechanisms for exploiting closed timelike curves.

In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interp... more In an earlier paper, we examined the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics and how this interpretation could be extended so a particle was not just guided by the quantum potential, but in turn,through back-activity, modified the quantum potential field. Back-activity introduces nonlinearity into the evolution of the wave function, much like the bidirectional nonlinear interaction of space-time and matter-energy in general relativity. This generalisation has been called Post Quantum Mechanics. The mathematical exposition presented therein is developed in the present paper, linking Dimensional Analysis, Fractal Tessellation and Self Organized Criticality to describe new mechanisms of superluminal information transfer and the mechanisms for exploiting closed timelike curves. 2

In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and qua... more In this paper, we extend our previous discussion on ontological determinism, non-locality and quantum mechanics to that of a post-quantum mechanics (PQM) perspective. We examine the nature of quantum equilibrium/non-equilibrium and uncertainty to extend the statistical linear unitary quantum mechanics for closed systems to a locally-retrocausal, non-statistical, non-linear, non-unitary theory for open systems. We discuss how the Bohemian quantum potential has a dependence upon the position of its Bell 'beable' and how Complexity mathematics describes the self-organising feedback between the quantum potential and its beable allowing nonlocal communication. 2

In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that... more In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlies fourth-generation warfare (4GW). We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events (i.e. the 'Physics') from a Complexity perspective by using a threshold-type percolation model. We propose to integrate this strategic level model with tactical level Big Data, behavioral, statistical projections via a 'fractal' operational level model and to construct a hierarchical framework that allows dynamic prediction. Our initial study concentrates on this strategic level, i.e. a percolation model. Our main conclusion from this initial study is that extremist terrorist events are not solely driven by the size of a supporting population within a socio-geographical location but rather a combination of ideological factors that also depends upon the involvement of the host population. This involvement, through the social, political and psychological fabric of society, not only contributes to the active participation of terrorists within society but also directly contributes to and increases the likelihood of the occurrence of terrorist events. Our calculations demonstrate the links between Islamic extremist terrorist events, the ideologies within the Muslim and non-Muslim population that facilitates these terrorist events (such as Anti-Zionism) and anti-Semitic occurrences of violence against the Jewish population. In a future paper, we hope to extend the work undertaken to construct a predictive model and extend our calculations to other forms of terrorism such as Right Wing fundamentalist terrorist events within the USA.

Complexity science affords a number of novel tools for examining terrorism, particularly network ... more Complexity science affords a number of novel tools for examining terrorism, particularly network analysis and NK-Boolean fitness landscapes. The following paper explores various aspects of terrorist networks which can be illuminated through applications of non-linear dynamical systems modeling to terrorist network structures. Of particular interest are some of the emergent properties of terrorist networks as typified by the 9-11 hijackers network, properties of centrality, hierarchy and distance, as well as ways in which attempts to disrupt the transmission of information through terrorist networks may be expected to produce greater or lesser levels of fitness in those organizations.

In the following paper we step outside of the traditional domain of international business theory... more In the following paper we step outside of the traditional domain of international business theory. Using techniques from mathematical economics and from recent developments in game theory, we develop a predictive tool aimed at providing elements of a prescriptive methodology for strategic international market entry.

In this review article we compare the recent work of Peter Lynds, "On a finite universe with no b... more In this review article we compare the recent work of Peter Lynds, "On a finite universe with no beginning or end", with that of Stephen Hawking, primarily "Quantum Cosmology, M-Theory, and the Anthropic Principle", and two foundational works by Sean M. Carroll and Jennifer Chen, "Does Inflation Provide Natural Conditions for the Universe" and "Spontaneous Inflation and the Origin of the Arrow of Time", in order to evaluate their comparative treatments of the nature and role of causality, time ordering, thermodynamic reversibility, singularities and boundary conditions in the formation of the early universe. We briefly reference Smolin and Kauffman's recent arguments with respect to possible processes of "evolutionary selection" in early universe formation as an alternative explanation to key elements of Hawking's earlier "M-Theory", and its attendant anthropic principle. We also briefly excerpt a short section of Smolin's recent work on topology in quantum loop gravity, simply as an illustrative example of the type of complex quantum topological transformation which he offers as a theoretical alternative to string theory in quantum cosmology.

In this paper we follow our earlier work on the mathematical and computational modeling of biolog... more In this paper we follow our earlier work on the mathematical and computational modeling of biological warfare and its potential extensions to nuclear terrorism. In particular
we review Dr. Parnell’s earlier critique of the proper and improper use of probabilities, scenarios and the emergent properties of terrorism undertaken in conjunction with the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineers and the National Institute of Health. As indicated in the earlier report published by the National Academies Press
(http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12206&page=3) we extend the argument that:
―The DHS (2006) report and DHS presentations of its content use inconsistent, imprecise technical language and do not define many key terms.

In this paper, we develop the themes presented at the 2003 Joint Complexity Conference at the Lon... more In this paper, we develop the themes presented at the 2003 Joint Complexity Conference at the London School of Economics and subsequently published in The Intelligencer (2004) and O Tempo Das Redes (2008). Following the data analysis of the 9/11 high-jacker network developed by Valdis Krebs from open sources, we apply social network theory to examine salient arguments regarding terrorism as seen from the standpoint of complex adaptive systems theory. In particular, we explore the concepts of group cohesion, adhesion and alternative network mappings derived from node removal.

Notions of Darwinian selection have been implicit in economic theory for at least sixty years. Ri... more Notions of Darwinian selection have been implicit in economic theory for at least sixty years. Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter have argued that while evolutionary thinking was prevalent in prewar economics, the postwar Neoclassical school became almost entirely preoccupied with equilibrium conditions and their mathematical conditions. One of the problems with the economic interpretation of firm selection through competition has been a weak grasp on an incomplete scientific paradigm. As I.F. Price notes, "The biological metaphor has long lurked in the background of management theory largely because the message of 'survival of the fittest' (usually wrongly attributed to Charles Darwin rather than Herbert Spencer) provides a seemingly natural model for market competition (e.g. Alchian 1950, Merrell 1984, Henderson 1989, Moore 1993), without seriously challenging the underlying paradigms of what an organisation is." In this paper we examine the application of dynamic fitness landscape models to economic theory, particularly the theory of technology substitution, drawing on recent work by Kauffman, Arthur, McKelvey, Nelson and Winter, and Windrum and Birchenhall. In particular we use Professor Post's early work with John Holland on the genetic algorithm to explain some of the key differences between static and dynamic approaches to economic modeling. This paper is a preprint of a chapter from Unifying Themes in Complex Systems V, Ed. Ali Minai, Dan Braha and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Springer Verlag, 2011.

The dynamic financial environment of Central and Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination ... more The dynamic financial environment of Central and
Eastern Europe allows for a clear determination of
“best practices” in the banking industry through
analysis of common patterns in banking and finance.
We explain the specific practices that have led to successful
adaptation on the part of international banks
like ABN AMRO in Romania and to Romanian
financial markets.
In general, we have found, through a series of case
studies designed to assess best practices, that the
best performing strategies are those which are based
upon “distributed decision making,” allowing for
decisive action and rapid organizational learning at
the local level. In order for rapid organizational
learning to take place, efficient business relationships
are critical to the firm’s functioning. In addition,
the firm must develop a substantial diversity
in both its internal and external networks.

The purpose of the following paper is to demonstrate that the "limits of physics" are in a very i... more The purpose of the following paper is to demonstrate that the "limits of physics" are in a very important way determined by the conceptual framework and language of discourse that we use to describe physical reality. In this paper we examine three areas where the structure of discourse has been particularly difficult. In this regard we examine three problems, the problem of time (which is discussed in two sections of the paper), the problem of non-locality in quantum mechanics and some related general difficulties of interpretation specific to the Copenhagen school, and the concept of maximality as it is employed with respect to cosmic inflation in general relativity and quantum cosmology.

This volume presents a complex systems approach to analyzing, modeling, understanding, and comba... more This volume presents a complex systems approach to analyzing, modeling, understanding, and combating terrorism and conflict, and is a unique and timely contribution to a topic of critical importance. Much of the effort in this area has used—and continues to use—classical methods based on intelligence, statistical and game theoretic modeling, and military operations. The need for other methods has become increasingly clear. Recognizing and conflict, at least in part, as a social phenomenon suggests that methods that have succeeded in analyzing other social systems may also work well in this case. This has led to the application of network modeling and analysis to terrorism and conflict. Other complex systems concepts such as chaotic dynamics, self- organization, emergent patterns, and fractals have also been applied, generating important insights. This book reviews and discusses these efforts.

In this paper, we examine the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interpretatio... more In this paper, we examine the foundational linkage between David Bohm's ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics and how this interpretation may be extended so a particle is not just guided by the quantum potential, but in turn,through back-activity, modifies the quantum potential field. Back-activity introduces nonlinearity into the evolution of the wave function, much like the bidirectional nonlinear interaction of space-time and matter-energy in general relativity. This generalisation has been called Post Quantum Mechanics. The mathematical exposition presented herein is subsequently developed in a companion paper, linking Dimensional Analysis, Fractal Tessellation and Quantum Information Theory. 2

Assessing the risk of terrorism, and terrorist threats is a difficult and complex undertaking. As... more Assessing the risk of terrorism, and terrorist threats is a difficult and complex undertaking. As we have argued elsewhere (Fellman, 2011), official government estimates produced by national boards have a tendency to use probabilistic language in a rather loose fashion, placing excessive emphasis on often ill-defined or incomplete analytical models.