Jennifer Cyr | University of Arizona (original) (raw)

Papers by Jennifer Cyr

The Fates of Political Parties

Political parties in the developing world often face serious electoral crises; from one election ... more Political parties in the developing world often face serious electoral crises; from one election to the next, parties can be decisively voted out of national office. What happens to a party that experiences this kind of voter rejection? The literature suggests it will disappear, leaving the party system vulnerable to the inexperience of new political actors. The Fates of Political Parties offers a more nuanced perspective: focusing on a number of individual Latin American countries as well as the region as a whole, it identifies considerable variation regarding how parties survive and even revive after an electoral crisis. The book revitalizes the study of parties as complex entities that rely on a potentially diverse set of resources to remain active in politics. It demonstrates that parties can be remarkably enduring institutions; surviving and reviving parties represent instances of institutional stability. Where they endure, those parties can sustain competition and strengthen the democratic regime.

What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when conf... more What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when confronted with the challenges of governing? Why are some of these parties more successful than others at managing the potentially conflicting interests of their diverse social bases? Despite the importance of parties for democracy, we know surprisingly little about their internal lives. We argue that foundational choices-the strategies undertaken by party leaders in founding and building a coalition of support-shape a party's ability to retain a reformist character when confronted with the challenges of governing. Specifically, the nature of the party's organizational core, together with its strategies to craft social coalitions to win and share state power, establish a coalitional logic that is difficult to reverse once it has been put into place. This logic shapes a party's ability to impose costs on coalitional partners without threatening the viability of the coalition itself. We elaborate this argument by comparing the coalition building and maintenance of two reformist parties in Bolivia: the historic Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Our findings have implications for how scholars theorize about the importance of organizational resources for explaining longterm trajectories of party building.

What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when conf... more What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when confronted with the challenges of governing? Why are some of these parties more successful than others at managing the potentially conflicting interests of their diverse social bases? Despite the importance of parties for democracy, we know surprisingly little about their internal lives. We argue that foundational choices-the strategies undertaken by party leaders in founding and building a coalition of support-shape a party's ability to retain a reformist character when confronted with the challenges of governing. Specifically, the nature of the party's organizational core, together with its strategies to craft social coalitions to win and share state power, establish a coalitional logic that is difficult to reverse once it has been put into place. This logic shapes a party's ability to impose costs on coalitional partners without threatening the viability of the coalition itself. We elaborate this argument by comparing the coalition building and maintenance of two reformist parties in Bolivia: the historic Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Our findings have implications for how scholars theorize about the importance of organizational resources for explaining longterm trajectories of party building.

The consequences of cartel collapse are troubling for democratic representation and institutional... more The consequences of cartel collapse are troubling for democratic representation and institutional stability. This was demonstrated in Venezuela. Collusion between the country's two principal parties limited competition and empowered them with the distribution of oil rents. The resulting cartelization fused the party system with the state. Party cartel collapse severed this relationship, threatening the survival of individual political parties and exposing state institutions to radical re-definition by Hugo Chávez. These findings suggest that party-cartel collapse may be a particularly dire subtype of party-system collapse. They further suggest that the negative impact of cartelization on democracy and state institutions will likely outlast the cartel itself.

This study explains why only some social conflicts translate into salient dimensions of partisan ... more This study explains why only some social conflicts translate into salient dimensions of partisan competition in Bolivia. The recent politicization of the regional autonomy movement represented a stark difference with how conflicts had impacted party politics in the past. The study argues that social conflicts became politically transformative thanks in part to the ruling party elite. Elected politicians addressed social conflicts according to their electoral interests and their capacity to act on those interests. The study makes this argument by situating the recent regional conflict within the country's longer history of mobilizational politics and fully specifying the range of strategies that ruling party elites employ in the face of social conflict. In explaining when and how social conflicts become politically transformative, the study highlights the remarkable agency of electorally motivated elites in emerging democratic regimes. WORKING DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE WITHOUT AUTHOR'S PERMISSION.

Despite their long trajectory in the social sciences, few systematic works analyze how often and ... more Despite their long trajectory in the social sciences, few systematic works analyze how often and for what purposes focus groups appear in published works. This study fills this gap by undertaking a meta-analysis of focus group use over the last ten years. It makes several contributions to our understanding of when and why focus groups are used in the social sciences. First, the study explains that focus groups generate data at three units of analysis: the individual, the group, and the interaction. While most researchers rely upon the individual unit of analysis, the method's comparative advantage lies in the group and interactive units. Second, it reveals strong affinities between each unit of analysis and the primary motivation for using focus groups as a data collection method. The individual unit of analysis is appropriate for triangulation; the group unit is appropriate as a pretest; and the interactive unit is appropriate for exploration. Finally, it offers a set of guidelines that researchers should adopt when presenting focus groups as part of their research design. Researchers should, first, state the main purpose of the focus group in a research design; second, identify the primary unit of analysis exploited; and finally, list the questions used to collect data in the focus group.

Revista de Ciencia Política, 33.1 (375-391), 2013

375 revista de ciencia pOLítica / vOLumen 33 / nº 1 / 2013 / 375 -391 * La autora agradece al pro... more 375 revista de ciencia pOLítica / vOLumen 33 / nº 1 / 2013 / 375 -391 * La autora agradece al proyecto de Opinión pública de américa Latina (LapOp) y sus principales patrocinadores (la united states agency for international development, el programa de las naciones unidas de desarrollo, el Banco interamericano de desarrollo y la vanderbilt university) por haber hecho disponibles sus datos. Que veinte años no es nada: Hugo CHávez, las eleCCiones de 2012 y el Continuismo polítiCo venezolano* Twenty years is just the beginning: Hugo Chávez, the 2012 elections, and political continuity in Venezuela Jennifer Cyr Universidad de Arizona resumen en este artículo se examina el continuo predominio de Hugo chávez en la política venezolana. 2012 estuvo marcado por varios éxitos electorales chavistas, a pesar de crecientes problemas relativos a la economía, al déficit de infraestructura y la inseguridad ciudadana, y a que enfrentó a una oposición unificada y coordinada. para explicar el predominio de chávez luego de catorce años de gobierno, el artículo pone énfasis en la opinión pública venezolana entre 2006 y 2012. encuentra que la evaluación a la gestión de chávez y su gobierno fue, como mínimo, ambivalente y, para muchos venezolanos, relativamente positiva durante este periodo. además, debilidades ideológicas dentro de la oposición impidieron que ésta le ofreciera al país una alternativa verdaderamente distinta. el artículo concluye sugiriendo que las consecuencias del proyecto bolivariano de chávez probablemente trascenderán al paso de este por el gobierno. Palabras clave: Hugo chávez, democracia, elecciones, estabilidad institucional, venezuela. Abstract This article examines the continued predominance of Hugo Chávez in Venezuelan politics. The year 2012 was marked by several chavista electoral successes, despite growing economic, infrastructural, and security problems and a unified coordination effort by the country's opposition. To help explain Hugo Chávez's predominance after fourteen years of uninterrupted rule, the article points to Venezuelan public opinion in the years since the 2006 election. It finds that evaluations of Chávez and his government were, at a mínimum, ambivalent and for many Venezuelans, quite positive. Additionally, ideological weaknesses within the opposition prevented it from offering Venezuelans a truly distinct alternative. The article suggests, by way of conclusion, that the consequences of Chávez's revolutionary project will likely outlast his time in office.

International Social Science Journal, 2009

Abstract will be provided by author.

The Fates of Political Parties

Political parties in the developing world often face serious electoral crises; from one election ... more Political parties in the developing world often face serious electoral crises; from one election to the next, parties can be decisively voted out of national office. What happens to a party that experiences this kind of voter rejection? The literature suggests it will disappear, leaving the party system vulnerable to the inexperience of new political actors. The Fates of Political Parties offers a more nuanced perspective: focusing on a number of individual Latin American countries as well as the region as a whole, it identifies considerable variation regarding how parties survive and even revive after an electoral crisis. The book revitalizes the study of parties as complex entities that rely on a potentially diverse set of resources to remain active in politics. It demonstrates that parties can be remarkably enduring institutions; surviving and reviving parties represent instances of institutional stability. Where they endure, those parties can sustain competition and strengthen the democratic regime.

What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when conf... more What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when confronted with the challenges of governing? Why are some of these parties more successful than others at managing the potentially conflicting interests of their diverse social bases? Despite the importance of parties for democracy, we know surprisingly little about their internal lives. We argue that foundational choices-the strategies undertaken by party leaders in founding and building a coalition of support-shape a party's ability to retain a reformist character when confronted with the challenges of governing. Specifically, the nature of the party's organizational core, together with its strategies to craft social coalitions to win and share state power, establish a coalitional logic that is difficult to reverse once it has been put into place. This logic shapes a party's ability to impose costs on coalitional partners without threatening the viability of the coalition itself. We elaborate this argument by comparing the coalition building and maintenance of two reformist parties in Bolivia: the historic Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Our findings have implications for how scholars theorize about the importance of organizational resources for explaining longterm trajectories of party building.

What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when conf... more What explains a reformist party's ability to retain its original transformative project when confronted with the challenges of governing? Why are some of these parties more successful than others at managing the potentially conflicting interests of their diverse social bases? Despite the importance of parties for democracy, we know surprisingly little about their internal lives. We argue that foundational choices-the strategies undertaken by party leaders in founding and building a coalition of support-shape a party's ability to retain a reformist character when confronted with the challenges of governing. Specifically, the nature of the party's organizational core, together with its strategies to craft social coalitions to win and share state power, establish a coalitional logic that is difficult to reverse once it has been put into place. This logic shapes a party's ability to impose costs on coalitional partners without threatening the viability of the coalition itself. We elaborate this argument by comparing the coalition building and maintenance of two reformist parties in Bolivia: the historic Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Our findings have implications for how scholars theorize about the importance of organizational resources for explaining longterm trajectories of party building.

The consequences of cartel collapse are troubling for democratic representation and institutional... more The consequences of cartel collapse are troubling for democratic representation and institutional stability. This was demonstrated in Venezuela. Collusion between the country's two principal parties limited competition and empowered them with the distribution of oil rents. The resulting cartelization fused the party system with the state. Party cartel collapse severed this relationship, threatening the survival of individual political parties and exposing state institutions to radical re-definition by Hugo Chávez. These findings suggest that party-cartel collapse may be a particularly dire subtype of party-system collapse. They further suggest that the negative impact of cartelization on democracy and state institutions will likely outlast the cartel itself.

This study explains why only some social conflicts translate into salient dimensions of partisan ... more This study explains why only some social conflicts translate into salient dimensions of partisan competition in Bolivia. The recent politicization of the regional autonomy movement represented a stark difference with how conflicts had impacted party politics in the past. The study argues that social conflicts became politically transformative thanks in part to the ruling party elite. Elected politicians addressed social conflicts according to their electoral interests and their capacity to act on those interests. The study makes this argument by situating the recent regional conflict within the country's longer history of mobilizational politics and fully specifying the range of strategies that ruling party elites employ in the face of social conflict. In explaining when and how social conflicts become politically transformative, the study highlights the remarkable agency of electorally motivated elites in emerging democratic regimes. WORKING DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE WITHOUT AUTHOR'S PERMISSION.

Despite their long trajectory in the social sciences, few systematic works analyze how often and ... more Despite their long trajectory in the social sciences, few systematic works analyze how often and for what purposes focus groups appear in published works. This study fills this gap by undertaking a meta-analysis of focus group use over the last ten years. It makes several contributions to our understanding of when and why focus groups are used in the social sciences. First, the study explains that focus groups generate data at three units of analysis: the individual, the group, and the interaction. While most researchers rely upon the individual unit of analysis, the method's comparative advantage lies in the group and interactive units. Second, it reveals strong affinities between each unit of analysis and the primary motivation for using focus groups as a data collection method. The individual unit of analysis is appropriate for triangulation; the group unit is appropriate as a pretest; and the interactive unit is appropriate for exploration. Finally, it offers a set of guidelines that researchers should adopt when presenting focus groups as part of their research design. Researchers should, first, state the main purpose of the focus group in a research design; second, identify the primary unit of analysis exploited; and finally, list the questions used to collect data in the focus group.

Revista de Ciencia Política, 33.1 (375-391), 2013

375 revista de ciencia pOLítica / vOLumen 33 / nº 1 / 2013 / 375 -391 * La autora agradece al pro... more 375 revista de ciencia pOLítica / vOLumen 33 / nº 1 / 2013 / 375 -391 * La autora agradece al proyecto de Opinión pública de américa Latina (LapOp) y sus principales patrocinadores (la united states agency for international development, el programa de las naciones unidas de desarrollo, el Banco interamericano de desarrollo y la vanderbilt university) por haber hecho disponibles sus datos. Que veinte años no es nada: Hugo CHávez, las eleCCiones de 2012 y el Continuismo polítiCo venezolano* Twenty years is just the beginning: Hugo Chávez, the 2012 elections, and political continuity in Venezuela Jennifer Cyr Universidad de Arizona resumen en este artículo se examina el continuo predominio de Hugo chávez en la política venezolana. 2012 estuvo marcado por varios éxitos electorales chavistas, a pesar de crecientes problemas relativos a la economía, al déficit de infraestructura y la inseguridad ciudadana, y a que enfrentó a una oposición unificada y coordinada. para explicar el predominio de chávez luego de catorce años de gobierno, el artículo pone énfasis en la opinión pública venezolana entre 2006 y 2012. encuentra que la evaluación a la gestión de chávez y su gobierno fue, como mínimo, ambivalente y, para muchos venezolanos, relativamente positiva durante este periodo. además, debilidades ideológicas dentro de la oposición impidieron que ésta le ofreciera al país una alternativa verdaderamente distinta. el artículo concluye sugiriendo que las consecuencias del proyecto bolivariano de chávez probablemente trascenderán al paso de este por el gobierno. Palabras clave: Hugo chávez, democracia, elecciones, estabilidad institucional, venezuela. Abstract This article examines the continued predominance of Hugo Chávez in Venezuelan politics. The year 2012 was marked by several chavista electoral successes, despite growing economic, infrastructural, and security problems and a unified coordination effort by the country's opposition. To help explain Hugo Chávez's predominance after fourteen years of uninterrupted rule, the article points to Venezuelan public opinion in the years since the 2006 election. It finds that evaluations of Chávez and his government were, at a mínimum, ambivalent and for many Venezuelans, quite positive. Additionally, ideological weaknesses within the opposition prevented it from offering Venezuelans a truly distinct alternative. The article suggests, by way of conclusion, that the consequences of Chávez's revolutionary project will likely outlast his time in office.

International Social Science Journal, 2009

Abstract will be provided by author.