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Papers by Allison Beth Hodgkins, PhD

Research paper thumbnail of Bibi: King of Israel, Master of the Status Quo

Tahrir Forum , 2019

Published as "Netanyahu's Masterful Gaslighting" The recent Israeli Election showed Bibi to be t... more Published as "Netanyahu's Masterful Gaslighting"

The recent Israeli Election showed Bibi to be the king of Israel and a master of the status quo.

Research paper thumbnail of Mirroring the Other: Review of Netflix Series Fauda

Cairo Review of Global Affairs, 2019

Mirroring the Other Fauda, Netflix’s hit TV series on Israeli undercover operatives in Palestine,... more Mirroring the Other
Fauda, Netflix’s hit TV series on Israeli undercover operatives in Palestine, presents Palestinian and Israeli characters that have nuanced emotions and desires; yet the show still otherizes Arabs and justifies Israel’s actions in the West Bank and Gaza.

Research paper thumbnail of Canaries in a coal mine.docx

that unleashed the demons of sectarianism on the vulnerable non-Moslem minorities, including the ... more that unleashed the demons of sectarianism on the vulnerable non-Moslem minorities, including the ancient Assyrian and Chaldean christians. It is now too late to carve out a place for these communities in their ancestral lands. The good intentions of the west should instead be focused on saving the christians themselves.

Research paper thumbnail of Law and Power in the Agency Relationship or why Boehner’s Blessing Bibi is Bad for Bargaining.docx

There is much to be said about the possible repercussions of Speaker of the House John Boehner's ... more There is much to be said about the possible repercussions of Speaker of the House John Boehner's decision to invite to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chime in on President Barak Obama's Iran policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Waiting for Barry-O: Divining Abbas' Next Move

Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few ... more Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few rounds with this handy, Haaretz "build your own coalition widget" last week and quickly found the same 67 seat configuration that Israeli President Reuven Rivilin recognized when he tapped Netanyahu to form the next Israeli government on Wednesday night. Although there is still some horse-trading around who get's which ministry (which hard line small party will get the defense portfolio, which religious party will get education), it is all but certain that the next Knesset will have a distinct "national" and "religious" with Kulanu for populist cover. More importantly, if you drill down into the particular agendas of the six parties haggling over their stake in the coalition it becomes evident that security and settlements are the glue that holds them together. In fact, this is the first coalition in a while that is likely to govern for a four full years.

Research paper thumbnail of Context, Confirmation Bias, and the Crash of MetroJet 9286

Research paper thumbnail of What a decisive victory looks like

Research paper thumbnail of Being losers

When the news of explosions in New York and New Jersey and a knife attack in Minnesota broke, the... more When the news of explosions in New York and New Jersey and a knife attack in Minnesota broke, the hunt for transnational links, homegrown networks, and local training camps commenced. Despite all evidence pointing to another 'lone wolf' attack by a rank amateur with delusions of Jihadist grandeur, the national and cable news networks trotted out expert after expert to spin each suspects' facebook feeds and trips abroad into an ISIL plot, or evidence of a looming threat to the homeland. Now, with the apprehension of Ahmad Khan Rahami in New Jersey and the death of Minnesota's Dahir Aden, hours of commentary on the danger of radicalization and extremism are sure to follow.

Research paper thumbnail of Living among 20 million Muslims

The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering ... more The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering the United States is simple: more Muslims equal more terrorism and a less secure United States. And while there is utterly no evidence of a relationship between increased Muslim immigration to the US and increased rates of domestic terrorisms, according to one poll, as many as 50% of Americans support at least a temporary ban. The question that no one is asking is why? Why would half the US electorate think banning nearly one-quarter of the world's population from entry is a good idea? Are we just a country of bigots? No, we are not. As the push for marriage equality demonstrates, we are actually very tolerant of difference-once we get to know the group or the idea. But that's precisely the problem with relation to Muslims: we don't really know any.

Research paper thumbnail of How John Kerry's Framework Will Make a Palestinian Wedding Singer a Significant Threat to Peace

Research paper thumbnail of Message in a Barrel Political Violence a Glance

Tw o Egyptian Mil helicopters, similar to those operated by the Syrian Arab Air Force. USAF photo... more Tw o Egyptian Mil helicopters, similar to those operated by the Syrian Arab Air Force. USAF photo by SSGT Cherie A. Thurlby, via Wikimedia. In its ongoing assaults on rebel strongholds, since mid-December the Sy rian military has been making frequent use of a weapon that is as puzzling as it is nasty : barrel bombs. These decidedly low tech, improv ised weapons return little in military v alue: they are inaccurate, cumbersome and prone to ex plode early , too late or not at all. They are, howev er, v ery scary weapons, and do a good job of deliv ering a grisly , terrify ing end to those with the misfortune of being under one shov ed out of the back of a helicopter. And while they unquestionably reinforce the regime's reputation for barbarity , as Secretary Kerry suggests, the timing and purpose this nasty weapon's new prominence raises some interesting questions about the regime's " grand strategy. " First, the regime's apparent reliance on what is essentially a homemade bomb comes at a time when the rebels appear to be losing ground to both in-fighting and regime assaults. Why make such prominent use of a weapon that suggests the regime could be running low on munitions? Conv entional wisdom holds that this tactic is part of an effort to soften up Aleppo in adv ance of a major offensiv e. Again, while this objectiv e is entirely plausible it doesn't ex plain why the regime is demonstrating a preference for this tool ov er other ty pes of dev astating weapons such as cluster bombs or Russian-linked fuel-air bombs (which mix fuel with ox y gen in the air, before igniting the cloud in a large ex plosion) such as the one reportedly used ov er the northern city of Raqqa. Second, the regime is conducting this v ery well telev ised onslaught at the same time it is attending the UN-sponsored conference in Genev a and scoring points by negotiating a deal to allow civ ilians safe passage from the remaining rebel areas in Homs. Why pummel civ ilians in one rebel-held city and make arrangements for their safe passage from another? Again, it makes sense that ev acuating civ ilians would be a reasonable precursor to an all-out assault on Homs, ex cept for the pesky fact that the regime has nev er treated civ ilian casualties as cause for restraint.

Research paper thumbnail of The Pink Finger Utility Curve and other rational choices

The utility curve of pink fingertips and other rational choices Many a time, I have heard the par... more The utility curve of pink fingertips and other rational choices Many a time, I have heard the parable of the frog and the scorpion held out as an explanatory metaphor for the middle east. The scorpion, as the story goes, begs a ride across the Nile from a rather dubious frog; who finds the promises of future rewards somewhat disproportionate to the risks involved. The scorpion overcomes the frogs reluctance by explaining their joint passage is the ultimate hostage situation: " if I sting you, I will drown. " With this credible commitment in hand, the pair proceeded across the Nile. Halfway through, the scorpion stings the frog. " Why?!? " gasps the frog as he slips beneath the surface, " because this is the Middle East, " says the scorpion. And they drown. The morale of the story, the point to be underscored, is that the Middle East and those who live in it, are inherently irrational; culturally, historically and pathologically incapable of pursuing a rational course of action. Why else would the frog take this risk? Why else would the scorpion elect to drown? Our incredulity is based on the assumption that like the chicken, the optimal outcome was to get to the other side. We cannot fathom the horrors that could be lurking in the weeds. We assume they had agency and weren't being forced to flee. We don't consider the possibility that one bank was the frying pan and the other fire. Rational choice, after all, is a process of differentiating between the utility of the choices available. Your ideal preference can still be democracy, but that doesn't make civil war a superior choice to, hopefully, enlightened despotism. Better the stability that goes along with an 80 year old in a wheelchair , than the chaos next door.

Research paper thumbnail of Waiting for Barry-O: Divining Abbas' Next Move

Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few ... more Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few rounds with this handy, Haaretz "build your own coalition widget" last week and quickly found the same 67 seat configuration that Israeli President Reuven Rivilin recognized when he tapped Netanyahu to form the next Israeli government on Wednesday night. Although there is still some horse-trading around who get's which ministry (which hard line small party will get the defense portfolio, which religious party will get education), it is all but certain that the next Knesset will have a distinct "national" and "religious" with Kulanu for populist cover. More importantly, if you drill down into the particular agendas of the six parties haggling over their stake in the coalition it becomes evident that security and settlements are the glue that holds them together. In fact, this is the first coalition in a while that is likely to govern for a four full years.

Research paper thumbnail of Who's Afraid of Ajnad Misr

Research paper thumbnail of Context, Confirmation Bias, and the Crash of MetroJet 9286

Research paper thumbnail of Peace Process after Trump

Research paper thumbnail of The Two-State Solution After Trump

Research paper thumbnail of Living among 20 million Muslims

The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering ... more The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering the United States is simple: more Muslims equal more terrorism and a less secure United States. And while there is utterly no evidence of a relationship between increased Muslim immigration to the US and increased rates of domestic terrorisms, according to one poll, as many as 50% of Americans support at least a temporary ban. The question that no one is asking is why? Why would half the US electorate think banning nearly one-quarter of the world's population from entry is a good idea? Are we just a country of bigots? No, we are not. As the push for marriage equality demonstrates, we are actually very tolerant of difference-once we get to know the group or the idea. But that's precisely the problem with relation to Muslims: we don't really know any.

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond Land for Peace

Research paper thumbnail of Relocating the US Embassy in Israel: A cost benefit analysis for Trump administration

Research paper thumbnail of Bibi: King of Israel, Master of the Status Quo

Tahrir Forum , 2019

Published as "Netanyahu's Masterful Gaslighting" The recent Israeli Election showed Bibi to be t... more Published as "Netanyahu's Masterful Gaslighting"

The recent Israeli Election showed Bibi to be the king of Israel and a master of the status quo.

Research paper thumbnail of Mirroring the Other: Review of Netflix Series Fauda

Cairo Review of Global Affairs, 2019

Mirroring the Other Fauda, Netflix’s hit TV series on Israeli undercover operatives in Palestine,... more Mirroring the Other
Fauda, Netflix’s hit TV series on Israeli undercover operatives in Palestine, presents Palestinian and Israeli characters that have nuanced emotions and desires; yet the show still otherizes Arabs and justifies Israel’s actions in the West Bank and Gaza.

Research paper thumbnail of Canaries in a coal mine.docx

that unleashed the demons of sectarianism on the vulnerable non-Moslem minorities, including the ... more that unleashed the demons of sectarianism on the vulnerable non-Moslem minorities, including the ancient Assyrian and Chaldean christians. It is now too late to carve out a place for these communities in their ancestral lands. The good intentions of the west should instead be focused on saving the christians themselves.

Research paper thumbnail of Law and Power in the Agency Relationship or why Boehner’s Blessing Bibi is Bad for Bargaining.docx

There is much to be said about the possible repercussions of Speaker of the House John Boehner's ... more There is much to be said about the possible repercussions of Speaker of the House John Boehner's decision to invite to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chime in on President Barak Obama's Iran policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Waiting for Barry-O: Divining Abbas' Next Move

Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few ... more Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few rounds with this handy, Haaretz "build your own coalition widget" last week and quickly found the same 67 seat configuration that Israeli President Reuven Rivilin recognized when he tapped Netanyahu to form the next Israeli government on Wednesday night. Although there is still some horse-trading around who get's which ministry (which hard line small party will get the defense portfolio, which religious party will get education), it is all but certain that the next Knesset will have a distinct "national" and "religious" with Kulanu for populist cover. More importantly, if you drill down into the particular agendas of the six parties haggling over their stake in the coalition it becomes evident that security and settlements are the glue that holds them together. In fact, this is the first coalition in a while that is likely to govern for a four full years.

Research paper thumbnail of Context, Confirmation Bias, and the Crash of MetroJet 9286

Research paper thumbnail of What a decisive victory looks like

Research paper thumbnail of Being losers

When the news of explosions in New York and New Jersey and a knife attack in Minnesota broke, the... more When the news of explosions in New York and New Jersey and a knife attack in Minnesota broke, the hunt for transnational links, homegrown networks, and local training camps commenced. Despite all evidence pointing to another 'lone wolf' attack by a rank amateur with delusions of Jihadist grandeur, the national and cable news networks trotted out expert after expert to spin each suspects' facebook feeds and trips abroad into an ISIL plot, or evidence of a looming threat to the homeland. Now, with the apprehension of Ahmad Khan Rahami in New Jersey and the death of Minnesota's Dahir Aden, hours of commentary on the danger of radicalization and extremism are sure to follow.

Research paper thumbnail of Living among 20 million Muslims

The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering ... more The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering the United States is simple: more Muslims equal more terrorism and a less secure United States. And while there is utterly no evidence of a relationship between increased Muslim immigration to the US and increased rates of domestic terrorisms, according to one poll, as many as 50% of Americans support at least a temporary ban. The question that no one is asking is why? Why would half the US electorate think banning nearly one-quarter of the world's population from entry is a good idea? Are we just a country of bigots? No, we are not. As the push for marriage equality demonstrates, we are actually very tolerant of difference-once we get to know the group or the idea. But that's precisely the problem with relation to Muslims: we don't really know any.

Research paper thumbnail of How John Kerry's Framework Will Make a Palestinian Wedding Singer a Significant Threat to Peace

Research paper thumbnail of Message in a Barrel Political Violence a Glance

Tw o Egyptian Mil helicopters, similar to those operated by the Syrian Arab Air Force. USAF photo... more Tw o Egyptian Mil helicopters, similar to those operated by the Syrian Arab Air Force. USAF photo by SSGT Cherie A. Thurlby, via Wikimedia. In its ongoing assaults on rebel strongholds, since mid-December the Sy rian military has been making frequent use of a weapon that is as puzzling as it is nasty : barrel bombs. These decidedly low tech, improv ised weapons return little in military v alue: they are inaccurate, cumbersome and prone to ex plode early , too late or not at all. They are, howev er, v ery scary weapons, and do a good job of deliv ering a grisly , terrify ing end to those with the misfortune of being under one shov ed out of the back of a helicopter. And while they unquestionably reinforce the regime's reputation for barbarity , as Secretary Kerry suggests, the timing and purpose this nasty weapon's new prominence raises some interesting questions about the regime's " grand strategy. " First, the regime's apparent reliance on what is essentially a homemade bomb comes at a time when the rebels appear to be losing ground to both in-fighting and regime assaults. Why make such prominent use of a weapon that suggests the regime could be running low on munitions? Conv entional wisdom holds that this tactic is part of an effort to soften up Aleppo in adv ance of a major offensiv e. Again, while this objectiv e is entirely plausible it doesn't ex plain why the regime is demonstrating a preference for this tool ov er other ty pes of dev astating weapons such as cluster bombs or Russian-linked fuel-air bombs (which mix fuel with ox y gen in the air, before igniting the cloud in a large ex plosion) such as the one reportedly used ov er the northern city of Raqqa. Second, the regime is conducting this v ery well telev ised onslaught at the same time it is attending the UN-sponsored conference in Genev a and scoring points by negotiating a deal to allow civ ilians safe passage from the remaining rebel areas in Homs. Why pummel civ ilians in one rebel-held city and make arrangements for their safe passage from another? Again, it makes sense that ev acuating civ ilians would be a reasonable precursor to an all-out assault on Homs, ex cept for the pesky fact that the regime has nev er treated civ ilian casualties as cause for restraint.

Research paper thumbnail of The Pink Finger Utility Curve and other rational choices

The utility curve of pink fingertips and other rational choices Many a time, I have heard the par... more The utility curve of pink fingertips and other rational choices Many a time, I have heard the parable of the frog and the scorpion held out as an explanatory metaphor for the middle east. The scorpion, as the story goes, begs a ride across the Nile from a rather dubious frog; who finds the promises of future rewards somewhat disproportionate to the risks involved. The scorpion overcomes the frogs reluctance by explaining their joint passage is the ultimate hostage situation: " if I sting you, I will drown. " With this credible commitment in hand, the pair proceeded across the Nile. Halfway through, the scorpion stings the frog. " Why?!? " gasps the frog as he slips beneath the surface, " because this is the Middle East, " says the scorpion. And they drown. The morale of the story, the point to be underscored, is that the Middle East and those who live in it, are inherently irrational; culturally, historically and pathologically incapable of pursuing a rational course of action. Why else would the frog take this risk? Why else would the scorpion elect to drown? Our incredulity is based on the assumption that like the chicken, the optimal outcome was to get to the other side. We cannot fathom the horrors that could be lurking in the weeds. We assume they had agency and weren't being forced to flee. We don't consider the possibility that one bank was the frying pan and the other fire. Rational choice, after all, is a process of differentiating between the utility of the choices available. Your ideal preference can still be democracy, but that doesn't make civil war a superior choice to, hopefully, enlightened despotism. Better the stability that goes along with an 80 year old in a wheelchair , than the chaos next door.

Research paper thumbnail of Waiting for Barry-O: Divining Abbas' Next Move

Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few ... more Elections, like fighting, are a pretty good way of resolving information problems. I spent a few rounds with this handy, Haaretz "build your own coalition widget" last week and quickly found the same 67 seat configuration that Israeli President Reuven Rivilin recognized when he tapped Netanyahu to form the next Israeli government on Wednesday night. Although there is still some horse-trading around who get's which ministry (which hard line small party will get the defense portfolio, which religious party will get education), it is all but certain that the next Knesset will have a distinct "national" and "religious" with Kulanu for populist cover. More importantly, if you drill down into the particular agendas of the six parties haggling over their stake in the coalition it becomes evident that security and settlements are the glue that holds them together. In fact, this is the first coalition in a while that is likely to govern for a four full years.

Research paper thumbnail of Who's Afraid of Ajnad Misr

Research paper thumbnail of Context, Confirmation Bias, and the Crash of MetroJet 9286

Research paper thumbnail of Peace Process after Trump

Research paper thumbnail of The Two-State Solution After Trump

Research paper thumbnail of Living among 20 million Muslims

The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering ... more The assumption undergirding the presumptive Republican nominees proposed ban on Muslims entering the United States is simple: more Muslims equal more terrorism and a less secure United States. And while there is utterly no evidence of a relationship between increased Muslim immigration to the US and increased rates of domestic terrorisms, according to one poll, as many as 50% of Americans support at least a temporary ban. The question that no one is asking is why? Why would half the US electorate think banning nearly one-quarter of the world's population from entry is a good idea? Are we just a country of bigots? No, we are not. As the push for marriage equality demonstrates, we are actually very tolerant of difference-once we get to know the group or the idea. But that's precisely the problem with relation to Muslims: we don't really know any.

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond Land for Peace

Research paper thumbnail of Relocating the US Embassy in Israel: A cost benefit analysis for Trump administration

Research paper thumbnail of Separate from Peace: Jordanian-Israeli Relations and the Politics of Survival

I started working on this article in 2012. I had been living in Jordan for six-years and was advi... more I started working on this article in 2012. I had been living in Jordan for six-years and was advised by a colleague to write something on Jordan to account for my time there (make it look like field work). Even though Jordanian foreign policy wasn't my thing, I had a lot of contacts in the foreign ministry and the 20 th anniversary of the treaty was coming up. So, I brushed up on Laurie Brand, Curtis Ryan, Marc Lynch, etc and decided to ask whether and how the Obama administration's pivot to Asia would weaken the regime's commitment to the treaty, since we all know the only reason Jordan-meaning the regime, made and upholds the treaty with Israel is to ensure a steady flow of US aid, security assistance, and political cover. Right? It's all about internal threats and the US. Here's the thing: every Jordanian official I spoke with rejected the premise of my questions. The treaty had nothing to do with U.S. aid, they told me, and nothing to do with internal threats. (In fact, when I explained to one very high-level official what the arguments were, he looked at me, blinked, and said "that's the stupidest thing I have ever heard!") Without exception, they told me that Jordan's investment in the treaty was all about security from external threats, including and especially those posed by Israel. (Yes, they all say Jordan NEEDS US aid, and that playing nice with Israel facilitates that-however, they differentiated between the U.S. relationship and relations with Israel under the treaty) Granted, I am and was not an experienced scholar, but I felt that since my sources were consistently saying the same thing to me, I should rethink my argument accordingly. Isn't that what we are supposed to do? The way my sources described the Israeli-Jordanian relationship sounded like a textbook description of bandwagoning-a weak state keeping close relations with a powerfully, potentially hostile state in hopes of forbearance. I know-hardly original, but this was what my sources were telling me, so that is what I tried to write. The version here is one of several, and it's not that great. I am posting it because of the hostile reception it received from the reviewers, and the fact that current events lend support to what I was trying to say. In rejecting this, the reviewers didn't say it was poorly framed or needed greater conceptual clarity, which would have been fair. Instead, they suggested I didn't know anything about Jordan, and had a political ax to grind. One reviewer also hinted I may have fabricated my interviews since a) they interviewed some of these people and heard something different, b) I had a lot of "unnamed sources." I went through three rounds of similar rejections before abandoning the research. I have since left academia, but I am still bruised and so I wanted to put this here because I feel it's important to let my Jordanian colleagues speak for themselves. When I did the research for this, I interviewed people at the highest level of government, and in key roles in key ministries. Knowing how small Jordan is, I felt an obligation to conceal their identities. I did not, however, fabricate their words.

Research paper thumbnail of Should I Go?

Short case on pre-negotiation

Research paper thumbnail of Case Studies in Diplomacy for the 21 st Century Negotiations Training Simulation #1: The Baham-Mira Crisis

Negotiation simulation that combines crisis management with agency issues, and drafting.