Marian Melo | Comenius University in Bratislava (original) (raw)
Papers by Marian Melo
The Diarium of the Jesuit order at Trenčín written in Latin contains systematic daily weather rec... more The Diarium of the Jesuit order at Trenčín written in Latin contains systematic daily weather records (with some interruptions) from 8 November 1701 to 10 January 1710. Daily records from this period were kept by two administrators of the Jesuit dormitory (“regens convictus”) Ján Garajský and Juraj Košetič. After the death of Ján Garajský in 1702, the daily weather records are interrupted, so the winter season 1702/03 is without any weather information. With the arrival of his successor Juraj Košetič, such data appear only gradually in the course of 1703. Records related to temperature and precipitation patterns, cloudiness, as well as frequencies of different weather phenomena such as fogs, thunderstorms, strong winds. Information about floods and the occurrence of ice phenomena on the River Váh are also valuable. In the contribution, we focus on the evaluation of the temperature patterns of individual winter seasons in this period. Winters are defined from December 1 to February 28 (or February 29). For analysis, we selected all daily data describing the temperature state of the weather. Based on this evidence, each day we classified by daily temperature indices (from -3 to +3). Although some winter seasons contain daily weather records for every single day, but not every record specifically relates to a temperature pattern. Out of a total of nine winters during this period, only 6 seasons had more than 70 percent of such daily temperature indices recorded, specifically 1703/04 (73%), 1704/05 (97%), 1705/06 (93%), 1706/07 (86%), 1707/08 (71%) and 1708/09 (81%). From them, the coldest winter season in Trenčín was 1708/09 (with cold temperature pattern), then 1704/05 and 1706/07 (with moderately cold temperature pattern), 1705/06 and 1703/04 (with mild temperature pattern), and the warmest winter season was 1707/08 (with mild temperature pattern). Overall, the coldest month was January 1709, which was also the only very cold month in this ranking. The warmest month was December 1706 with mild temperature pattern. Like the result of the hard winter of 1708/09 was also the occurrence of ice phenomena (ice cover, ice jam with ice flood later in March) on the River Váh in Trenčín, which are recorded in the Jesuit Diary of this period. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-20-0374. Keywords: Jesuit Diary, winter, temperature indices, cold, mild, Trenčín, ice phenomena
Geographica Pannonica, 2014
Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrument... more Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrumental flow data can be prolonged by documentary data from historical sources in archives. This paper deals with knowledge gained by studies of historical materials regarding the 1895 catastrophic floods on the Danube River and its tributaries as reflected in the contemporary local press and also in studies of other historical records (flood marks, chronicles, books and photos). Records from the newspapers (Wiener Zeitung, Preßburger Zeitung, The New York Times and Komáromi Lapok) and other analysed sources show the relatively large territorial impact of the floods in March and April 1895, which affected not only the Danube and its tributaries, but also some neighboring basins. Catastrophic consequences of the flood were especially reported from the lower parts of the Danube River (from its confluence with the Drava River up to the mouth of the Black Sea) and the tributaries of the Tisza and Sava rivers. In 1895, the second highest flood after the 2006 flood on the Lower Danube was observed since 1841.
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2015
World Geomorphological Landscapes
The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, 2017
Based on the modified model outputs and the measured data from meteorological stations for the pe... more Based on the modified model outputs and the measured data from meteorological stations for the period 1951-2016, the scenarios of climate change were calculated up to the time horizon of the year 2100. The alternative IPCC emission
Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect will probably result in several interesting chan... more Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect will probably result in several interesting changes in global and regional climate. One of them is the global warm- ing. Because of changed energetic balance daily regime it seems that the daily minimum temperatures will increase more than the daily maximum ones. On the other hand, daily range of air temperature is influenced by several other fac- tors (atmospheric circulation, solar radiation, cloudiness, air humidity, soil moisture, upwind and lee effects etc.). The paper contains a sample from the analysis of past conditions in change of air temperature daily range at several Slovak stations in 1961-2010 and possible change in daily air temperature range up to the time frame of the year 2100 using climate change scenarios by four climatic models (global CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5, regional KNMI and MPI) and three emission scenarios (IPCC SRES A2. B1 and A1B). The analysis results showed that the precipitation and air humidity regime change...
In the paper the review of very high one- to five-day precipitation total scenarios for the 2010,... more In the paper the review of very high one- to five-day precipitation total scenarios for the 2010, 2030 and 2075 time frames is presented. These totals can potentially cause flash floods in the medium-scale river basins in Slovakia. There is presented briefly also the method of scenarios design for unusually dry periods. As a base the Canadian GCMs CCCM 1997 and CCCM 2000 as well as the U.S.A. GISS 1998 model outputs regionally modified for Slovakia have been used. The measured series of extraordinary high precipitation totals in the river basins Kysuca and upper Hron in the period 1951-2001 have been used as the reference. The year 1992 represents a reference dry and warm year there.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2016
Geographica Pannonica, 2014
Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrument... more Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrumental flow data can be prolonged by documentary data from historical sources in archives. This paper deals with knowledge gained by studies of historical materials regarding the 1895 catastrophic floods on the Danube River and its tributaries as reflected in the contemporary local press and also in studies of other historical records (flood marks, chronicles, books and photos). Records from the newspapers (Wiener Zeitung, Preßburger Zeitung, The New York Times and Komáromi Lapok) and other analysed sources show the relatively large territorial impact of the floods in March and April 1895, which affected not only the Danube and its tributaries, but also some neighboring basins. Catastrophic consequences of the flood were especially reported from the lower parts of the Danube River (from its confluence with the Drava River up to the mouth of the Black Sea) and the tributaries of the Tisza and Sava rivers. In 1895, the second highest flood after the 2006 flood on the Lower Danube was observed since 1841.
International Journal of Climatology, 2017
An extreme windstorm that took place on 7 December 1868 in the Czech Lands is analysed by means o... more An extreme windstorm that took place on 7 December 1868 in the Czech Lands is analysed by means of rich documentary evidence from narrative sources, damage records, forestry journals and newspapers. Early meteorological measurements and a numerical atmospheric reanalysis support the documentary reconstruction. The windstorm reached hurricane-force over the Czech Lands between 0900 and 1600 of local mean time and was related to the passage of a cold front. The high winds, achieving hurricane-force, led to loss of human lives and many other casualties, as well as to severe damage to buildings and other structures. In particular, the documentary sources facilitate a quantitative reconstruction of the massive windthrow that occurred in forested areas across the Czech Lands, where the windstorm damaged at least 8 million m 3 of timber, which is arguably more than has been lost to any single similar event since. Reasons for the extreme windthrow, apart from wind forces and destabilization arising from wet and thawed soils, were found in increased vulnerability arising out of old, dense and mono-species conifer stands and inadequate clear-cutting and thinning measures. For the Czech Lands, this event was the most damaging windstorm in the 19th century. Moreover, damage reports are found from the British Isles, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany to Austria, the Czech Lands and Poland, documenting its disastrous effects on a (sub-)continental scale.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2016
Prace Geograficzne Instytut Geografii I Gospodarki Przestrzennej Uniwersytetu Jagiellonskiego, 2011
The paper is devoted to a brief analysis of possible climate change impacts on the suburban and u... more The paper is devoted to a brief analysis of possible climate change impacts on the suburban and urban areas of southwestern Slovakia. Climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect can result in about 2.5°C increase in the mean global temperature until 2100. In Slovakia it is assumed to be a range of 2 to 4°C. On the other hand, additional warming of urban areas is caused mainly by a changed heat balance of the land surfaces in urbanized agglomerations (concrete, asphalt, buildings, cobblestones, etc.) and partly also by thermal pollution (release of energy from heating and other human activities). In smaller towns the urban effect causes warming by about 0.5°C, in the largest cities up to 2°C in the mean annual temperature on a long-term average. A review of research on urban climate in Slovakia to date is included. Future plans to study and improve urban climate are listed in the paper.
Iahs Aish Publication, 2010
The future water reservoir ability to ensure the required water demand, as defined by downstream ... more The future water reservoir ability to ensure the required water demand, as defined by downstream water users (hydropower producers, irrigation, industry) was studied. we utilised data from the coupled general circulation model CCCM2000. Present horizontal resolution of GCMs does not allow identification of regional climate. Thus, we use a statistical method for downscaling of GCM outputs. We take into account model outputs from four gridpoints near to northern Slovakia. The rainfall-runoff model WBMOD calculated the water reservoir operation. The input data series of precipitation, air temperature and the observed reservoir outflows were used to model changes in total runoff and the required reservoir capacity. Deficiency in the required water demand for changed climate conditions was evaluated. In general, it can be concluded that the expected climatic change would influence the certainty of the water supply from the reservoirs.
Iahs Aish Publication, 2006
The IPCC provides new different SRES emission scenarios (IPCC 2001). For the Third Assessment Rep... more The IPCC provides new different SRES emission scenarios (IPCC 2001). For the Third Assessment Report, the IPCC facilitated the conversion of two of these emission scenarios (A2 and B2) into con- centration scenarios for use in climate simulations. The main aim of this contribution is to compare temperature, precipitation and specific humidity scenarios for Hurbanovo in the 21 st century
The aim of this contribution is to prepare climate change scenarios in form of time series of air... more The aim of this contribution is to prepare climate change scenarios in form of time series of air temperature and precipitation amount for Liptovský Hrádok in 21 st century based on three global climate model outputs. Liptovský Hrádok lies at the SW foot of the High Tatras Mts. (640 m a.s.l.). This station is representative station for Liptov basin (mountain region in Slovakia) and it ranks among the best meteorological stations in Slovakia with sufficiently long and good-quality observations (1881-2006). In this contribution model data from the next three different global coupled (atmosphere-ocean) general circulation models (GCMs) are utilized: model data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York (GISS 1998 model), from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria, B.C. (cgcm2 model) and from the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK (HadCM3 model). Statistical method for downscaling of global GCMs outputs to the regional level is used.
The global climate becomes warmer recently. In this contribution the tendency of climate regime c... more The global climate becomes warmer recently. In this contribution the tendency of climate regime change in the region of the Danubian lowland in Slovakia is studied. In the first part of this paper the detection of climatic trends and variability at the Hurbanovo Observatory in 1871-2006 is analyzed and in the second one the climate scenarios for the 21 st century are outlined. These scenarios are based on the global climatic General Circulation Models outputs.
Monthly snow characteristics dependence on monthly air temperature and precipitation values in th... more Monthly snow characteristics dependence on monthly air temperature and precipitation values in the High Tatras and the Low Tatras region in Slovakia in the 1921-2006 period is presented in the paper. The obtained results proved the unequal snow regimen in the region. The most significant differences were found between the northwestern and southeastern part. Increase of air temperature by about 1.2 °C and change of precipitation totals from –10% to +20% in the November-April season are the main reasons of obtained trends. It seems that the expected warming of climate up to 4.8 °C and some further increase in winter precipitation totals by +5% to +22% in the 21 st century can sig-nificantly change the future snow conditions in this region. This influence probably depends significantly on the altitude and local topography conditions. Another reason is possibly connected with changed atmosphere circulation patterns.
In this paper the temperature time series of three Slovak mountain stations and one Slovak lowlan... more In this paper the temperature time series of three Slovak mountain stations and one Slovak lowland station are analyzed from the point of view of their warmer periods. These warmer periods are analysed by an analogue method. Selected periods (warmer summer and warmer winter seasons) are characterized by air temperature as well as by precipitation, humidity and some other variables. In the second part of this paper the behaviour of the Canadian climate model outputs are studied from the point of view of their ability to catch similar warmer periods for this Central European region in the model control periods (1900-2004). Finally the results obtained by the analogue method and by climate model outputs are compared. Obtained results are in good coincidence between both used methods. Past warmer periods can be considered as some analogue of future climate events under enhanced greenhouse conditions.
Climate change owing to increasing greenhouse effect means serious problem at present. The most i... more Climate change owing to increasing greenhouse effect means serious problem at present. The most important sources of information about behaviour of climate system under changed conditions are climate models. In this paper Canadian climate models outputs (CCCM 2000) are utilized for preparation of climate change scenarios (air temper ature, precipitation amount) for Europe in the 21 st century. The results are based on outputs from "A2- SRES" forcing scenario, which represent a pessimistic variant. We can say that the increasing of air temperature is growing from oceans part (1 .2 °C) to continentals part (7.0 °C). Also optimistic "B2-SRES" forcing scenario for illustration and comparison with "A2-SRES" is used. Results demonstrated a more modest warming in the 21 st century
The Diarium of the Jesuit order at Trenčín written in Latin contains systematic daily weather rec... more The Diarium of the Jesuit order at Trenčín written in Latin contains systematic daily weather records (with some interruptions) from 8 November 1701 to 10 January 1710. Daily records from this period were kept by two administrators of the Jesuit dormitory (“regens convictus”) Ján Garajský and Juraj Košetič. After the death of Ján Garajský in 1702, the daily weather records are interrupted, so the winter season 1702/03 is without any weather information. With the arrival of his successor Juraj Košetič, such data appear only gradually in the course of 1703. Records related to temperature and precipitation patterns, cloudiness, as well as frequencies of different weather phenomena such as fogs, thunderstorms, strong winds. Information about floods and the occurrence of ice phenomena on the River Váh are also valuable. In the contribution, we focus on the evaluation of the temperature patterns of individual winter seasons in this period. Winters are defined from December 1 to February 28 (or February 29). For analysis, we selected all daily data describing the temperature state of the weather. Based on this evidence, each day we classified by daily temperature indices (from -3 to +3). Although some winter seasons contain daily weather records for every single day, but not every record specifically relates to a temperature pattern. Out of a total of nine winters during this period, only 6 seasons had more than 70 percent of such daily temperature indices recorded, specifically 1703/04 (73%), 1704/05 (97%), 1705/06 (93%), 1706/07 (86%), 1707/08 (71%) and 1708/09 (81%). From them, the coldest winter season in Trenčín was 1708/09 (with cold temperature pattern), then 1704/05 and 1706/07 (with moderately cold temperature pattern), 1705/06 and 1703/04 (with mild temperature pattern), and the warmest winter season was 1707/08 (with mild temperature pattern). Overall, the coldest month was January 1709, which was also the only very cold month in this ranking. The warmest month was December 1706 with mild temperature pattern. Like the result of the hard winter of 1708/09 was also the occurrence of ice phenomena (ice cover, ice jam with ice flood later in March) on the River Váh in Trenčín, which are recorded in the Jesuit Diary of this period. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-20-0374. Keywords: Jesuit Diary, winter, temperature indices, cold, mild, Trenčín, ice phenomena
Geographica Pannonica, 2014
Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrument... more Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrumental flow data can be prolonged by documentary data from historical sources in archives. This paper deals with knowledge gained by studies of historical materials regarding the 1895 catastrophic floods on the Danube River and its tributaries as reflected in the contemporary local press and also in studies of other historical records (flood marks, chronicles, books and photos). Records from the newspapers (Wiener Zeitung, Preßburger Zeitung, The New York Times and Komáromi Lapok) and other analysed sources show the relatively large territorial impact of the floods in March and April 1895, which affected not only the Danube and its tributaries, but also some neighboring basins. Catastrophic consequences of the flood were especially reported from the lower parts of the Danube River (from its confluence with the Drava River up to the mouth of the Black Sea) and the tributaries of the Tisza and Sava rivers. In 1895, the second highest flood after the 2006 flood on the Lower Danube was observed since 1841.
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2015
World Geomorphological Landscapes
The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, 2017
Based on the modified model outputs and the measured data from meteorological stations for the pe... more Based on the modified model outputs and the measured data from meteorological stations for the period 1951-2016, the scenarios of climate change were calculated up to the time horizon of the year 2100. The alternative IPCC emission
Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect will probably result in several interesting chan... more Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect will probably result in several interesting changes in global and regional climate. One of them is the global warm- ing. Because of changed energetic balance daily regime it seems that the daily minimum temperatures will increase more than the daily maximum ones. On the other hand, daily range of air temperature is influenced by several other fac- tors (atmospheric circulation, solar radiation, cloudiness, air humidity, soil moisture, upwind and lee effects etc.). The paper contains a sample from the analysis of past conditions in change of air temperature daily range at several Slovak stations in 1961-2010 and possible change in daily air temperature range up to the time frame of the year 2100 using climate change scenarios by four climatic models (global CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5, regional KNMI and MPI) and three emission scenarios (IPCC SRES A2. B1 and A1B). The analysis results showed that the precipitation and air humidity regime change...
In the paper the review of very high one- to five-day precipitation total scenarios for the 2010,... more In the paper the review of very high one- to five-day precipitation total scenarios for the 2010, 2030 and 2075 time frames is presented. These totals can potentially cause flash floods in the medium-scale river basins in Slovakia. There is presented briefly also the method of scenarios design for unusually dry periods. As a base the Canadian GCMs CCCM 1997 and CCCM 2000 as well as the U.S.A. GISS 1998 model outputs regionally modified for Slovakia have been used. The measured series of extraordinary high precipitation totals in the river basins Kysuca and upper Hron in the period 1951-2001 have been used as the reference. The year 1992 represents a reference dry and warm year there.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2016
Geographica Pannonica, 2014
Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrument... more Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrumental flow data can be prolonged by documentary data from historical sources in archives. This paper deals with knowledge gained by studies of historical materials regarding the 1895 catastrophic floods on the Danube River and its tributaries as reflected in the contemporary local press and also in studies of other historical records (flood marks, chronicles, books and photos). Records from the newspapers (Wiener Zeitung, Preßburger Zeitung, The New York Times and Komáromi Lapok) and other analysed sources show the relatively large territorial impact of the floods in March and April 1895, which affected not only the Danube and its tributaries, but also some neighboring basins. Catastrophic consequences of the flood were especially reported from the lower parts of the Danube River (from its confluence with the Drava River up to the mouth of the Black Sea) and the tributaries of the Tisza and Sava rivers. In 1895, the second highest flood after the 2006 flood on the Lower Danube was observed since 1841.
International Journal of Climatology, 2017
An extreme windstorm that took place on 7 December 1868 in the Czech Lands is analysed by means o... more An extreme windstorm that took place on 7 December 1868 in the Czech Lands is analysed by means of rich documentary evidence from narrative sources, damage records, forestry journals and newspapers. Early meteorological measurements and a numerical atmospheric reanalysis support the documentary reconstruction. The windstorm reached hurricane-force over the Czech Lands between 0900 and 1600 of local mean time and was related to the passage of a cold front. The high winds, achieving hurricane-force, led to loss of human lives and many other casualties, as well as to severe damage to buildings and other structures. In particular, the documentary sources facilitate a quantitative reconstruction of the massive windthrow that occurred in forested areas across the Czech Lands, where the windstorm damaged at least 8 million m 3 of timber, which is arguably more than has been lost to any single similar event since. Reasons for the extreme windthrow, apart from wind forces and destabilization arising from wet and thawed soils, were found in increased vulnerability arising out of old, dense and mono-species conifer stands and inadequate clear-cutting and thinning measures. For the Czech Lands, this event was the most damaging windstorm in the 19th century. Moreover, damage reports are found from the British Isles, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany to Austria, the Czech Lands and Poland, documenting its disastrous effects on a (sub-)continental scale.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2016
Prace Geograficzne Instytut Geografii I Gospodarki Przestrzennej Uniwersytetu Jagiellonskiego, 2011
The paper is devoted to a brief analysis of possible climate change impacts on the suburban and u... more The paper is devoted to a brief analysis of possible climate change impacts on the suburban and urban areas of southwestern Slovakia. Climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect can result in about 2.5°C increase in the mean global temperature until 2100. In Slovakia it is assumed to be a range of 2 to 4°C. On the other hand, additional warming of urban areas is caused mainly by a changed heat balance of the land surfaces in urbanized agglomerations (concrete, asphalt, buildings, cobblestones, etc.) and partly also by thermal pollution (release of energy from heating and other human activities). In smaller towns the urban effect causes warming by about 0.5°C, in the largest cities up to 2°C in the mean annual temperature on a long-term average. A review of research on urban climate in Slovakia to date is included. Future plans to study and improve urban climate are listed in the paper.
Iahs Aish Publication, 2010
The future water reservoir ability to ensure the required water demand, as defined by downstream ... more The future water reservoir ability to ensure the required water demand, as defined by downstream water users (hydropower producers, irrigation, industry) was studied. we utilised data from the coupled general circulation model CCCM2000. Present horizontal resolution of GCMs does not allow identification of regional climate. Thus, we use a statistical method for downscaling of GCM outputs. We take into account model outputs from four gridpoints near to northern Slovakia. The rainfall-runoff model WBMOD calculated the water reservoir operation. The input data series of precipitation, air temperature and the observed reservoir outflows were used to model changes in total runoff and the required reservoir capacity. Deficiency in the required water demand for changed climate conditions was evaluated. In general, it can be concluded that the expected climatic change would influence the certainty of the water supply from the reservoirs.
Iahs Aish Publication, 2006
The IPCC provides new different SRES emission scenarios (IPCC 2001). For the Third Assessment Rep... more The IPCC provides new different SRES emission scenarios (IPCC 2001). For the Third Assessment Report, the IPCC facilitated the conversion of two of these emission scenarios (A2 and B2) into con- centration scenarios for use in climate simulations. The main aim of this contribution is to compare temperature, precipitation and specific humidity scenarios for Hurbanovo in the 21 st century
The aim of this contribution is to prepare climate change scenarios in form of time series of air... more The aim of this contribution is to prepare climate change scenarios in form of time series of air temperature and precipitation amount for Liptovský Hrádok in 21 st century based on three global climate model outputs. Liptovský Hrádok lies at the SW foot of the High Tatras Mts. (640 m a.s.l.). This station is representative station for Liptov basin (mountain region in Slovakia) and it ranks among the best meteorological stations in Slovakia with sufficiently long and good-quality observations (1881-2006). In this contribution model data from the next three different global coupled (atmosphere-ocean) general circulation models (GCMs) are utilized: model data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York (GISS 1998 model), from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria, B.C. (cgcm2 model) and from the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK (HadCM3 model). Statistical method for downscaling of global GCMs outputs to the regional level is used.
The global climate becomes warmer recently. In this contribution the tendency of climate regime c... more The global climate becomes warmer recently. In this contribution the tendency of climate regime change in the region of the Danubian lowland in Slovakia is studied. In the first part of this paper the detection of climatic trends and variability at the Hurbanovo Observatory in 1871-2006 is analyzed and in the second one the climate scenarios for the 21 st century are outlined. These scenarios are based on the global climatic General Circulation Models outputs.
Monthly snow characteristics dependence on monthly air temperature and precipitation values in th... more Monthly snow characteristics dependence on monthly air temperature and precipitation values in the High Tatras and the Low Tatras region in Slovakia in the 1921-2006 period is presented in the paper. The obtained results proved the unequal snow regimen in the region. The most significant differences were found between the northwestern and southeastern part. Increase of air temperature by about 1.2 °C and change of precipitation totals from –10% to +20% in the November-April season are the main reasons of obtained trends. It seems that the expected warming of climate up to 4.8 °C and some further increase in winter precipitation totals by +5% to +22% in the 21 st century can sig-nificantly change the future snow conditions in this region. This influence probably depends significantly on the altitude and local topography conditions. Another reason is possibly connected with changed atmosphere circulation patterns.
In this paper the temperature time series of three Slovak mountain stations and one Slovak lowlan... more In this paper the temperature time series of three Slovak mountain stations and one Slovak lowland station are analyzed from the point of view of their warmer periods. These warmer periods are analysed by an analogue method. Selected periods (warmer summer and warmer winter seasons) are characterized by air temperature as well as by precipitation, humidity and some other variables. In the second part of this paper the behaviour of the Canadian climate model outputs are studied from the point of view of their ability to catch similar warmer periods for this Central European region in the model control periods (1900-2004). Finally the results obtained by the analogue method and by climate model outputs are compared. Obtained results are in good coincidence between both used methods. Past warmer periods can be considered as some analogue of future climate events under enhanced greenhouse conditions.
Climate change owing to increasing greenhouse effect means serious problem at present. The most i... more Climate change owing to increasing greenhouse effect means serious problem at present. The most important sources of information about behaviour of climate system under changed conditions are climate models. In this paper Canadian climate models outputs (CCCM 2000) are utilized for preparation of climate change scenarios (air temper ature, precipitation amount) for Europe in the 21 st century. The results are based on outputs from "A2- SRES" forcing scenario, which represent a pessimistic variant. We can say that the increasing of air temperature is growing from oceans part (1 .2 °C) to continentals part (7.0 °C). Also optimistic "B2-SRES" forcing scenario for illustration and comparison with "A2-SRES" is used. Results demonstrated a more modest warming in the 21 st century