Andrei Semenov | Perm State National Research University (original) (raw)

Papers by Andrei Semenov

Research paper thumbnail of The World of Ethnic Regional Autonomies: Introducing the New Dataset

Nationalism and Ethnic Politics

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Research paper thumbnail of Authorities’ Response to Political Mobilization in Russia (On the Example of Alexei Navalny’s 2017—2018 Campaign)

The Journal of Political Theory, Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics Politeia, 2020

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Research paper thumbnail of Russian Regions after the Elections

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Research paper thumbnail of «Политические машины» и их «Водители»: электоральное администрирование на местном уровне

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Research paper thumbnail of Preparing for the Parliamentary Elections of 2021: Russian Politics and Society

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Research paper thumbnail of Ethnic Territorial Autonomies as Complex Institutional Systems: Institutionalizing Ethnic Peace

The paper seeks to establish the relations between specific institutional features of ethnic terr... more The paper seeks to establish the relations between specific institutional features of ethnic territorial autonomy and its pacifying effects. The heated debate on the political effects of territorial autonomy arrangements and its ability to pacify, contain, and dissolve ethnic conflicts has entered a new phase in the last decade: the proponents of power-sharing approach have argued that allowing ethnic groups to participate in decision-making process and endowing them with limited selfgovernance would change their preferences and behavior. On the opposite side, critiques believe that power-sharing mechanisms reinforce detached ethnic identity, hence, preventing conflict settlement. Grounding on institutional approach, this paper assumes an ethnic territorial autonomy as complex and dynamic institutional arrangements for power-sharing with multiple institutional arenas and policy domains. Since it is crucial to disaggregate autonomies into more observable units of analysis, the origin...

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Research paper thumbnail of From Economic to Political Crisis? Dynamics of Contention in Russian Regions (2008-2012)

Österreichische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 2017

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Research paper thumbnail of When do political parties join protests? A comparative analysis of party involvement in “for fair elections” movement

East European Politics, 2016

ABSTRACT Why do some political parties join popular protests, whereas others abstain or even oppo... more ABSTRACT Why do some political parties join popular protests, whereas others abstain or even oppose them? Using a paired case-study comparison between the Russian regions, we examine political parties’ strategies towards the “For Fair Elections” movement in 2011–2012 and explain these choices through two jointly operating mechanisms: level of party institutionalisation; and co-optation. We show that despite the symbiosis of the state and political parties and overall parties’ loyalty to the regime, they differ in strategy and degree of involvement in social movements on an organisational level. We argue that the mechanism of party institutionalisation explains the switch between involvement and abstention, while co-optation does a better job in explaining the “support/counteract” choice.

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Research paper thumbnail of ГРАЖДАНСКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ В РОССИИ В ДЕКАБРЕ 2011 – СЕНТЯБРЕ 2012: ТЮМЕНСКАЯ ОБЛАСТЬ

В статье в рамках методологии изучения отдельного случая (сase-study) на примере Тюменской област... more В статье в рамках методологии изучения отдельного случая (сase-study) на примере Тюменской области рассматриваются причины и последствия роста гражданско-политической активности в России в электоральном цикле 2011/2012. На основе результатов опросов и интервью с участниками публичных акций, включенного наблюдения за политическими событиями, связанными с электоральным циклом, массива данных из социальных сетей описывается динамика протестной активности, выдвигается модель для дальнейшего кросс-регионального сравнительного анализа.

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Research paper thumbnail of Political foundations of state support for civil society: analysis of the distribution of presidential grants in Russia

Post-Soviet Affairs, 2021

ABSTRACT We argue that limited authoritarian regimes like Putin’s Russia have to work out a delic... more ABSTRACT We argue that limited authoritarian regimes like Putin’s Russia have to work out a delicate balance between suppressing civil society and buying its loyalty by allocating funds to the organizations willing to cooperate with the regime. Using the data on the distribution of presidential grants among civil society organizations working on human rights projects in 2017–2018, we show that organizations whose leaders take part in consultative bodies and pro-governmental organizations such as the All-Russian People’s Front receive larger amounts of money on average. Organizations with links to the parliamentary parties also have some premium in grant disbursement, while affiliation with the ruling party does not increase the amount of funding. These findings imply some degree of political bias in state funding for the third sector in Russia. We also found that professionalism matters, and seasoned civil society organizations have considerably more funding than less experienced organizations in the field.

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Research paper thumbnail of Political Mobilization in the Run-Up to the Presidential Elections

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Research paper thumbnail of Wie weit können sie gehen? Die Systemopposition in Russland sucht ihren Platz

Russland-Analysen

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Research paper thumbnail of The World of Ethnic Regional Autonomies: Introducing the New Dataset

Nationalism and Ethnic Politics

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Research paper thumbnail of Electoral Performance and Mobilization of Opposition Parties in Russia

Russian Politics

This paper documents the patterns of opposition parties’ engagement with street politics in Russi... more This paper documents the patterns of opposition parties’ engagement with street politics in Russia. It claims that in the electoral authoritarian regimes like Russia under Vladimir Putin, public protests remain a viable instrument for reaching out to the constituencies and eliciting concessions from the regime. In addition, collective actions signal commitment and strength and help to overcome the media blockade usually imposed by the state. However, in order to be a successful player in contentious politics, parties have to develop organizational capacity. Using the data on more than 7000 protest events that took place in Russia in 2012–2015, I show that the regional party branches with higher electoral returns in federal and regional elections organize more protest events controlling for other possible determinants of mobilization. The Communist Party remains the major mobilizing force covering a large array of issues and demands. However, the loyal opposition—LDPR and Just Russia...

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Research paper thumbnail of The Roots of the Grass: Patterns of Grassroots Urban Mobilization in Russia

Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya

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Research paper thumbnail of The Vertical Constraints: Centralization and Management Effectiveness in Urban Russia

Sotsiologicheskoe Obozrenie / Russian Sociological Review

At present, the direct election of municipal heads has been canceled in most Russian regions, whi... more At present, the direct election of municipal heads has been canceled in most Russian regions, which practically completed the integration of municipalities into single, top-down model of governance. These institutional reforms caused changes in the factors determining the development and management effectiveness of municipalities. We have conducted a comparative analysis of six urban districts in Perm Krai to show that the effectiveness of the municipal administration is mainly stimulated by a constellation of informal, economic, and institutional factors. The presence of a regional actor that exercises patronage and control over a municipality counts as “informal.” An economic factor is represented by the absence of major city/town-forming business companies, which stimulates the city administration to actively raise additional funds through regional development programs. Finally, an institutional factor is the pressure exercised by independent local-council members. The constellat...

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Research paper thumbnail of Organizational Reactions of Russian NGOs to 2012 Legislative Changes

Journal of Economic Sociology, 2017

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Research paper thumbnail of Protest Event Analysis as a Tool for Political Mobilization Studies

Sotsiologicheskoe Obozrenie / Russian Sociological Review

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Research paper thumbnail of Arhythmic Tempo: Dynamics of Readiness to Join the Collective Actions in Russia (1996–2019)

Journal of Economic Sociology = Ekonomicheskaya sotsiologiya, 2020

The propensity of the public to protest is a dynamic process, the direction of which determines t... more The propensity of the public to protest is a dynamic process, the direction of which determines the level of political stability. Aggregate indicators of the readiness to act collectively against declining standards of life can be used as a thermostat that indicates the level of economic grievances in society. What explains these dynamics? Do incremental changes in objective economic indicators such as inflation or unemployment matter the most, or is it the subjective evaluation of the situation in the country that drives protest attitudes? In this paper, I argue that two mechanisms link inflation and unemployment to the readiness to join economic protests: first, high levels of both indicators increase the gap between actual and desired consumption levels; second, high levels of inflation and unemployment signal the lack of governmental competence. I also argue that the subjective evaluation of the direction of the country has an independent effect on the aggregate level of readiness to join the collective actions with economic demands.
Statistical analysis based on the autoregressive model with distributed lag (ADL) confirms the hypothesis of the consumer price index and unemployment’s lagged impact on the readiness to protest, while public optimism exhibits both short- and long-term effects on the protest mood. The analysis also reveals the high level of persistence in the dynamics of protest attitudes. The study contributes to the discussion on the determinants of the mobilization and significance of objective and subjective economic grievances.

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Research paper thumbnail of Президенциализм и атрибуция ответственности за экономическое неблагополучие в России

Семенов А.В., Шевцова И.К. Президенциализм и атри- буция ответственности за экономическое неблагополучие в России // Политичес- кая наука. – 2019. – № 4. – С. 195–215., 2019

Президенциализм представляет собой такую систему организации подотчетности, при которой глава гос... more Президенциализм представляет собой такую систему организации подотчетности, при которой глава государства обладает прямым мандатом на реализацию политических курсов и имеет возможность формировать исполнительную власть под эти задачи. Прямой характер подотчетности также предполагает, что негативные последствия от выбранного курса непосредственно сказываются на рейтинге президента и шансах на его переизбрание. Российский случай выпадает из этой логики: несмотря на продолжительный экономический спад в 2010-х гг., равно как и признаваемую обществом центральную роль в управлении страной, президенту В. Путину удавалось поддерживать высокий рейтинг одобрения своей деятельности. Его уверенная победа на выборах 2018 г. также расходится с теоретическими ожиданиями модели экономического голосования. Основываясь на литературе об атрибуции ответственности и материалах фокус-групповых дискуссий, мы утверждаем, что одним из объяснений данного феномена выступает институциональная сложность российской политии: разделение ответственности за формирование правительства между президентом и парламентом, а также неясность в распределении полномочий. В результате с президента снимается ответственность за счет ее перекладывания на исполнительную и законодательную ветви, которые становятся своеобразными политическими «громоотводами». Кроме того, у участников фокус-групповых дискуссий затруднения вызвала и оценка текущего состояния экономики, ее связь с политическим процессом. Исследование позволяет уточнить теорию экономического голосования и указывает на значимость институционального контекста, который связан со способностью граждан оценивать положение дел в экономике и поощрять или наказывать ответственные за нее органы государственной власти.

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Research paper thumbnail of The World of Ethnic Regional Autonomies: Introducing the New Dataset

Nationalism and Ethnic Politics

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Research paper thumbnail of Authorities’ Response to Political Mobilization in Russia (On the Example of Alexei Navalny’s 2017—2018 Campaign)

The Journal of Political Theory, Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics Politeia, 2020

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Research paper thumbnail of Russian Regions after the Elections

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Research paper thumbnail of «Политические машины» и их «Водители»: электоральное администрирование на местном уровне

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Research paper thumbnail of Preparing for the Parliamentary Elections of 2021: Russian Politics and Society

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Research paper thumbnail of Ethnic Territorial Autonomies as Complex Institutional Systems: Institutionalizing Ethnic Peace

The paper seeks to establish the relations between specific institutional features of ethnic terr... more The paper seeks to establish the relations between specific institutional features of ethnic territorial autonomy and its pacifying effects. The heated debate on the political effects of territorial autonomy arrangements and its ability to pacify, contain, and dissolve ethnic conflicts has entered a new phase in the last decade: the proponents of power-sharing approach have argued that allowing ethnic groups to participate in decision-making process and endowing them with limited selfgovernance would change their preferences and behavior. On the opposite side, critiques believe that power-sharing mechanisms reinforce detached ethnic identity, hence, preventing conflict settlement. Grounding on institutional approach, this paper assumes an ethnic territorial autonomy as complex and dynamic institutional arrangements for power-sharing with multiple institutional arenas and policy domains. Since it is crucial to disaggregate autonomies into more observable units of analysis, the origin...

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Research paper thumbnail of From Economic to Political Crisis? Dynamics of Contention in Russian Regions (2008-2012)

Österreichische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 2017

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Research paper thumbnail of When do political parties join protests? A comparative analysis of party involvement in “for fair elections” movement

East European Politics, 2016

ABSTRACT Why do some political parties join popular protests, whereas others abstain or even oppo... more ABSTRACT Why do some political parties join popular protests, whereas others abstain or even oppose them? Using a paired case-study comparison between the Russian regions, we examine political parties’ strategies towards the “For Fair Elections” movement in 2011–2012 and explain these choices through two jointly operating mechanisms: level of party institutionalisation; and co-optation. We show that despite the symbiosis of the state and political parties and overall parties’ loyalty to the regime, they differ in strategy and degree of involvement in social movements on an organisational level. We argue that the mechanism of party institutionalisation explains the switch between involvement and abstention, while co-optation does a better job in explaining the “support/counteract” choice.

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Research paper thumbnail of ГРАЖДАНСКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ В РОССИИ В ДЕКАБРЕ 2011 – СЕНТЯБРЕ 2012: ТЮМЕНСКАЯ ОБЛАСТЬ

В статье в рамках методологии изучения отдельного случая (сase-study) на примере Тюменской област... more В статье в рамках методологии изучения отдельного случая (сase-study) на примере Тюменской области рассматриваются причины и последствия роста гражданско-политической активности в России в электоральном цикле 2011/2012. На основе результатов опросов и интервью с участниками публичных акций, включенного наблюдения за политическими событиями, связанными с электоральным циклом, массива данных из социальных сетей описывается динамика протестной активности, выдвигается модель для дальнейшего кросс-регионального сравнительного анализа.

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Research paper thumbnail of Political foundations of state support for civil society: analysis of the distribution of presidential grants in Russia

Post-Soviet Affairs, 2021

ABSTRACT We argue that limited authoritarian regimes like Putin’s Russia have to work out a delic... more ABSTRACT We argue that limited authoritarian regimes like Putin’s Russia have to work out a delicate balance between suppressing civil society and buying its loyalty by allocating funds to the organizations willing to cooperate with the regime. Using the data on the distribution of presidential grants among civil society organizations working on human rights projects in 2017–2018, we show that organizations whose leaders take part in consultative bodies and pro-governmental organizations such as the All-Russian People’s Front receive larger amounts of money on average. Organizations with links to the parliamentary parties also have some premium in grant disbursement, while affiliation with the ruling party does not increase the amount of funding. These findings imply some degree of political bias in state funding for the third sector in Russia. We also found that professionalism matters, and seasoned civil society organizations have considerably more funding than less experienced organizations in the field.

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Research paper thumbnail of Political Mobilization in the Run-Up to the Presidential Elections

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Research paper thumbnail of Wie weit können sie gehen? Die Systemopposition in Russland sucht ihren Platz

Russland-Analysen

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Research paper thumbnail of The World of Ethnic Regional Autonomies: Introducing the New Dataset

Nationalism and Ethnic Politics

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Research paper thumbnail of Electoral Performance and Mobilization of Opposition Parties in Russia

Russian Politics

This paper documents the patterns of opposition parties’ engagement with street politics in Russi... more This paper documents the patterns of opposition parties’ engagement with street politics in Russia. It claims that in the electoral authoritarian regimes like Russia under Vladimir Putin, public protests remain a viable instrument for reaching out to the constituencies and eliciting concessions from the regime. In addition, collective actions signal commitment and strength and help to overcome the media blockade usually imposed by the state. However, in order to be a successful player in contentious politics, parties have to develop organizational capacity. Using the data on more than 7000 protest events that took place in Russia in 2012–2015, I show that the regional party branches with higher electoral returns in federal and regional elections organize more protest events controlling for other possible determinants of mobilization. The Communist Party remains the major mobilizing force covering a large array of issues and demands. However, the loyal opposition—LDPR and Just Russia...

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Research paper thumbnail of The Roots of the Grass: Patterns of Grassroots Urban Mobilization in Russia

Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya

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Research paper thumbnail of The Vertical Constraints: Centralization and Management Effectiveness in Urban Russia

Sotsiologicheskoe Obozrenie / Russian Sociological Review

At present, the direct election of municipal heads has been canceled in most Russian regions, whi... more At present, the direct election of municipal heads has been canceled in most Russian regions, which practically completed the integration of municipalities into single, top-down model of governance. These institutional reforms caused changes in the factors determining the development and management effectiveness of municipalities. We have conducted a comparative analysis of six urban districts in Perm Krai to show that the effectiveness of the municipal administration is mainly stimulated by a constellation of informal, economic, and institutional factors. The presence of a regional actor that exercises patronage and control over a municipality counts as “informal.” An economic factor is represented by the absence of major city/town-forming business companies, which stimulates the city administration to actively raise additional funds through regional development programs. Finally, an institutional factor is the pressure exercised by independent local-council members. The constellat...

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Research paper thumbnail of Organizational Reactions of Russian NGOs to 2012 Legislative Changes

Journal of Economic Sociology, 2017

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Research paper thumbnail of Protest Event Analysis as a Tool for Political Mobilization Studies

Sotsiologicheskoe Obozrenie / Russian Sociological Review

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Research paper thumbnail of Arhythmic Tempo: Dynamics of Readiness to Join the Collective Actions in Russia (1996–2019)

Journal of Economic Sociology = Ekonomicheskaya sotsiologiya, 2020

The propensity of the public to protest is a dynamic process, the direction of which determines t... more The propensity of the public to protest is a dynamic process, the direction of which determines the level of political stability. Aggregate indicators of the readiness to act collectively against declining standards of life can be used as a thermostat that indicates the level of economic grievances in society. What explains these dynamics? Do incremental changes in objective economic indicators such as inflation or unemployment matter the most, or is it the subjective evaluation of the situation in the country that drives protest attitudes? In this paper, I argue that two mechanisms link inflation and unemployment to the readiness to join economic protests: first, high levels of both indicators increase the gap between actual and desired consumption levels; second, high levels of inflation and unemployment signal the lack of governmental competence. I also argue that the subjective evaluation of the direction of the country has an independent effect on the aggregate level of readiness to join the collective actions with economic demands.
Statistical analysis based on the autoregressive model with distributed lag (ADL) confirms the hypothesis of the consumer price index and unemployment’s lagged impact on the readiness to protest, while public optimism exhibits both short- and long-term effects on the protest mood. The analysis also reveals the high level of persistence in the dynamics of protest attitudes. The study contributes to the discussion on the determinants of the mobilization and significance of objective and subjective economic grievances.

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Research paper thumbnail of Президенциализм и атрибуция ответственности за экономическое неблагополучие в России

Семенов А.В., Шевцова И.К. Президенциализм и атри- буция ответственности за экономическое неблагополучие в России // Политичес- кая наука. – 2019. – № 4. – С. 195–215., 2019

Президенциализм представляет собой такую систему организации подотчетности, при которой глава гос... more Президенциализм представляет собой такую систему организации подотчетности, при которой глава государства обладает прямым мандатом на реализацию политических курсов и имеет возможность формировать исполнительную власть под эти задачи. Прямой характер подотчетности также предполагает, что негативные последствия от выбранного курса непосредственно сказываются на рейтинге президента и шансах на его переизбрание. Российский случай выпадает из этой логики: несмотря на продолжительный экономический спад в 2010-х гг., равно как и признаваемую обществом центральную роль в управлении страной, президенту В. Путину удавалось поддерживать высокий рейтинг одобрения своей деятельности. Его уверенная победа на выборах 2018 г. также расходится с теоретическими ожиданиями модели экономического голосования. Основываясь на литературе об атрибуции ответственности и материалах фокус-групповых дискуссий, мы утверждаем, что одним из объяснений данного феномена выступает институциональная сложность российской политии: разделение ответственности за формирование правительства между президентом и парламентом, а также неясность в распределении полномочий. В результате с президента снимается ответственность за счет ее перекладывания на исполнительную и законодательную ветви, которые становятся своеобразными политическими «громоотводами». Кроме того, у участников фокус-групповых дискуссий затруднения вызвала и оценка текущего состояния экономики, ее связь с политическим процессом. Исследование позволяет уточнить теорию экономического голосования и указывает на значимость институционального контекста, который связан со способностью граждан оценивать положение дел в экономике и поощрять или наказывать ответственные за нее органы государственной власти.

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Research paper thumbnail of Explaining the Spatial Variation in the Kremlin's Reaction to Aleksei Navalny's 2018 Presidential Campaign

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Research paper thumbnail of Russian Politics after the Nationwide Vote: An Analysis of the Regional Elections of

Presentation slides for "Russian Politics after the Nationwide Vote: An Analysis of the Regional ... more Presentation slides for "Russian Politics after the Nationwide Vote: An Analysis of the Regional Elections" organized by the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies (IRES) at Uppsala University on September 23, 2020.

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Research paper thumbnail of Opposition and Dissent in Russia During the Pandemic

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Research paper thumbnail of Ethnic regional autonomies as complex institutional systems: institutionalizing ethnic peace

WINIR-2016 presentation

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Research paper thumbnail of Городские активисты против власти и девелоперов (сравнительный анализ Перми, Винницы и Бонна) ВДНХ-2017.docx

Доклад на конференции ВДНХ-2017, Европейский университет в Санкт-Петербурге

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Research paper thumbnail of Grassroots mobilization and urban politics in Putin's Russia

The economic growth of the 2000s radically transformed the urban landscape in Russia: developers ... more The economic growth of the 2000s radically transformed the urban landscape in Russia: developers and local authorities forged the powerful alliances much alike "growth coalition", new planning tools were implemented, and the general public has gradually became engaged with the urban affairs. However, experiments with urban development in Russian cities have been regularly faced with discontent on behalf of its dwellers: local movements against infill construction, "hoodwinked" house investors, environmental grassroots organizations and other local urban protests emerged as a factor in urban politics. Using the "Contentious Politics in Russia" dataset, which captures public protest events in Russian regions on the timespan of 2012-2014, and in-depth study of some cases, I present an exploratory analysis of causes and variation in grassroots urban mobilization. Political transformations in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union have been consistently studies from the ―bird's eyes‖ perspective, which allows to capture the shifts in the architecture of power. The emergence of new political institutions and modes of governance, changes in electoral politics, recurrent patterns in regime-opposition interactions received a generous attention from the scholarly community. How do these structural shifts affect the everyday life of ordinary people and how do citizens react and adapt to the changes in power relations and institutional environment remain understudied. Urban mobilization constitutes a prospective scholarly field in this regards: it is close enough both spatially and analytically to the everyday life of individuals, but it is also well-situated both for comparative and contextual-specific analysis. For centuries, cities have been an arena for contestation and political struggle (Castells 1983, LeGalles 2002), more recently the debates shifted towards the impact of neoliberalism (meaning marketization and privatization of urban space) on urban development and power relations between different interest groups. Russian cities are an excellent ground for testing different theories and improving the scientific understanding of how structural processes are related to individual lives.

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Research paper thumbnail of Два года протестов: состязательная политика в регионах России в 2012-2013 гг.

В докладе на основе данных, собранных в рамках проекта «Состязательная политика в регионах России... more В докладе на основе данных, собранных в рамках проекта «Состязательная политика в регионах России», описывается динамика протестной активности в 2012-2013 гг. Собранные даные позволяют описать пространственную динамику протестных событий, акторный состав, репертуар и цель протестов, а также типологизировать требования. Кроме того, база данных содержит сведения о «низовой» протестной активности, межрегиональных кампаниях, взаимодействии участников протестных событий и полицейских, реакции властей на протестные события. В докладе также описывается методология сбора данных, ее преимущества и ограничения. На основе теории структуры политических возможностей выдвигаются и тестируются некоторые предварительные гипотезы, позволяющие объяснить различия в динамике состязательности в разных регионах России.

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