Lucas Gonzalez | CONICET - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Lucas Gonzalez

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Nov 30, 2021

The Country Report on Local Government in Argentina is a product of the LoGov-project: "Local Gov... more The Country Report on Local Government in Argentina is a product of the LoGov-project: "Local Government and the Changing Urban-Rural Interplay". The H2020-MSCA-RISE-2018 project aims to provide solutions for local governments that address the fundamental challenges resulting from urbanisation. To address these complex issues, 18 partners from 17 countries and six continents share their expertise and knowledge in the realms of public law, political science, and public administration. LoGov identifies, evaluates, compares, and shares innovative practices that cope with the impact of changing urban-rural relations in major local government areas (WP 1-5). LICENSE CC BY 4.0

Revista de ciencia política (Santiago), 2024

Revista de la SAAP, 2021

Resumen: Este trabajo analiza la distribución de planes sociales en Argentina y presenta un resul... more Resumen: Este trabajo analiza la distribución de planes sociales en Argentina y presenta un resultado contraintuitivo. El Partido Justicialista de Argentina, que la literatura describe como clientelar, incrementó los fondos programáticos durante el gobierno de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, mientras que la coalición Cambiemos, que se presentó como programática, invirtió más en la distribución discrecional durante el gobierno de Mauricio Macri. El estudio presenta un análisis cuantitativo del total de 364 programas del gobierno nacional entre 2008 y 2019, explora los procesos que llevaron a los resultados en ambas administraciones usando fuentes secundarias y concluye con algunas implicancias comparadas. El principal argumento es que ambos partidos distribuyeron fondos discrecionales a través de movimientos sociales para contener posibles estallidos sociales, intercambiándolos por paz social y gobernabilidad.

Governance, 2022

Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a soc... more Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a social outbreak? This study proposes a theoretical argument that specifies how discretionary spending reduces conflict, highlighting the role of social movements in managing protests. It examines this and alternative arguments in Argentina, a country with strong social movements and historically large mobilizations, using statistical analysis
with an original database on protests and a population of 364 national government programs between 2008 and 2019. The article makes a contribution by finding a differential effect between specific types of social spending, programmatic and discre tional, and protests. It also specifies the linkage between the main variables using qualitative evidence during two presidencies. The goal of discretionary distribution is not to win an election but to ensure governance. The article finally raises some comparative implications on the role of social movements and welfare spending in Latin America.

Studies in Comparative International Development, 2019

This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnatio... more This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnational level. The classical literature suggests that natural resource abundance has negative effects on well-being, a situation referred to as the resource curse. However, a novel strand of research emphasizes that rentier states worldwide exhibit contrasting outcomes. To account for such variation, this investigation aligns with approaches stressing the significance of contextual (place and institutional) factors to studying the resource curse. The main claim in this work is that both structural and institutional factors related to the extractive industry help account for variation in development outcomes. It contends that mineral rents are positively associated with human development and economic industrialization when the extractive sector is not geographically concentrated in enclave economies, and subnational fiscal institutions redistribute enough rents from producing to non-producing districts. It empirically tests this argument using a time series cross-sectional analysis, a difference-indifference (DiD) estimation, and two case studies in Argentina, a country where subnational territorial units collect mineral royalties and have exogenously created their own rent-sharing regimes. It finally provides some comparative implications that may contribute to current debates on the socioeconomic impact of natural resource wealth.

Revista Ibero-Americana de Estudos Legislativos, 2015

What is the role of presidents in the politics of distribution in developing democracies? To what... more What is the role of presidents in the politics of distribution in developing democracies? To what extent do other political actors, such as legislators and governors, influence federal distribution? This paper studies the main factors that affect distributive politics in Argentina and Brazil, two highly unequal presidential federations in Latin America. The focus is on funds with high redistributive impact and over which the central government has large discretion: those for public infrastructure. Using original data on federal infrastructure spending for the 24 provinces in Argentina and the 27 states in Brazil for the period 1999-2011, we show that the distribution of infrastructure funds is fundamentally determined by executive politics. Despite this, our empirical findings indicate there is large variation between the two cases in the relevance of the partisan links between presidents and governors and the influence of congress and its committees. Furthermore, we observe that elections are not relevant in explaining distribution in either of the two cases and that presidents are mostly motivated by political considerations and that programmatic factors, such as equity and efficiency criteria, play a secondary role, especially in Argentina. We discuss some possible reasons for these results and their implications for the broader comparative debate on distributive politics.

Latin American Politics and Society, 2022

Mitigating climate change requires a global transition from fossil fuels to a “green economy” dri... more Mitigating climate change requires a global transition from fossil fuels to a “green economy” driven by renewable energies. This shift has fostered massive investments in mining resources, notably lithium in South America, needed to store renewable energies. These mining ventures often produce harmful externalities where lithium is located. In Argentina, a major producer, striking variation has occurred in the fortunes of lithium-mining projects. In some instances, mining companies offered concessions that mitigated environmental damage and improved local socioeconomic conditions. In others, companies made minimal concessions, and in a third set they halted projects in response to local resistance. Why do mining ventures result alternatively in negotiated, unnegotiated, or aborted extraction? The article proposes a new typology of modes of extraction together with a multilevel explanatory framework that centers on the strengths and strategies of transnational mining companies, subnational governments, and local communities in setting the terms for extracting lithium.

World Development, 2022

Can opportunities for undergoing voluntary oversight improve bureaucratic motivation and effort? ... more Can opportunities for undergoing voluntary oversight improve bureaucratic motivation and effort? Drawing on insights from the social sciences, we argue that voluntary oversight increases front-line bureaucrats’ sense of autonomy and competence, and may therefore increase their motivation and effort. Partnering with a provincial auditing body in Argentina, we implement an encouragement design in which school principals are invited to receive a voluntary audit of a publicly funded school meal program. We employ a two-level randomization, in which regions are first randomly assigned to a higher or lower rate of invitations, and then schools within regions are randomly assigned to treatment or control. We find divergent effects of treatment based on the density of treatment; in the group of regions assigned to the lower rate of invitations, school principals assigned to treatment report increased motivation and a decrease in school closings. In contrast, in the group of regions assigned to the higher rate of invitations, we observe the opposite effect. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork, we speculate that a higher rate of invitations may generate pressure to accept the invitation and thereby undermine any positive effects of volunteering. Our results suggest the promise of voluntary audits as well as the need for further research on the conditions under which voluntary oversight may have differing consequences for bureaucratic effort and motivation.

Governance, 2022

Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a soc... more Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a social outbreak? This study proposes a theoretical argument that specifies how discretionary spending reduces conflict, highlighting the role of social movements in managing protests. It examines this and alternative arguments in Argentina, a country with strong social movements and historically large mobilizations, using statistical analysis with an original database on protests and a population of 364 national government programs between 2008 and 2019. The article makes an empirical contribution by finding a differential effect between specific types of social spending, programmatic and discretional, and protests. It also specifies the linkage between the main variables using qualitative evidence during two presidencies. The goal of discretionary distribution is not to win an election but to ensure governance. The article finally raises some comparative implications on the role of social movements and welfare spending in Latin America.

Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2021

How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were... more How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were some Latin American countries more successful at containing the pandemic's most devastating health outcomes? We argue that national governments that were more collaborative in their response to COVID-19 were more successful in reducing death rates. Our original dataset offers a novel attempt to operationalise collaborative governance (CG). We undertake simple statistical tests to measure the relationship between CG and COVID-19-related mortality rates in Latin America. We then choose three case studies to assess whether collaboration was meaningful in practice. Initial evidence suggests governments that pursued CG were more effective at containing mortality rates early on in the pandemic. The collaboration helped to foster cooperation over resources; buy time to prepare for a potential case surge; and produce a unified message regarding what citizens should do to prevent viral spread.

Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2021

How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were... more How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were some Latin American countries more successful at containing the pandemic's most devastating health outcomes? We argue that national governments that were more collaborative in their response to COVID-19 were more successful in reducing death rates. Our original dataset offers a novel attempt to operationalise collaborative governance (CG). We undertake simple statistical tests to measure the relationship between CG and COVID-19-related mortality rates in Latin America. We then choose three case studies to assess whether collaboration was meaningful in practice. Initial evidence suggests governments that pursued CG were more effective at containing mortality rates early on in the pandemic. The collaboration helped to foster cooperation over resources; buy time to prepare for a potential case surge; and produce a unified message regarding what citizens should do to prevent viral spread.

Comparative Politics, 2021

Inequality is unequally distributed across the territory, and national averages obscure this vari... more Inequality is unequally distributed across the territory, and national averages obscure this variation. Pockets of very high inequality persist at the subnational level of government, even when national governments implement large scale redistributive policies. This study investigates which factors at the subnational level may help explaining differences in income inequality across units. The main claim is that in subnational units where local economic elites capture provincial states by occupying relevant positions in their governments have lower taxes on land, spend less in social programs, have more repression of federal labor rights, and, as a consequence, have higher inequality. The study uses a large-N analysis of original panel data for Argentina, presents a comparative study of two cases, and explores some comparative implications in the conclusions.

Revista de Ciencia Política, Apr 21, 2021

RESUMEN La desigualdad se distribuye de manera desigual en el territorio y los promedios naciona... more RESUMEN

La desigualdad se distribuye de manera desigual en el territorio y los promedios nacionales oscurecen esta variación. Este estudio investiga qué factores a nivel subnacional pueden ayudar a explicar las diferencias en la desigualdad entre distritos. El trabajo analiza de que manera las coaliciones subnacionales resisten o apoyan políticas redistributivas de los gobiernos nacionales. El principal argumento es que el tipo de alianza gobernante nacional (regresiva o progresiva), incide en el nivel de desigualdad provincial, pero mediada por el tipo de coalición subnacional que apoye o resista a esa política nacional. Este argumento es examinado empíricamente a través del análisis de la configuración de las alianzas distributivas nacionales y subnacionales en dos provincias argentinas y en relación a las regulaciones de derechos laborales en el sector agrícola entre 2003 y 2015.

Palabras clave: Desigualdad; Alianzas; Relaciones Intergubernamentales; Derechos Laborales; Provincias; Argentina

ABSTRACT

Inequality is unevenly distributed across the territory and national averages obscure this variation. This study investigates which subnational level factors can help explain differences in inequality among districts. It analyzes how subnational coalitions resist or support national governments’ redistributive policies. The main argument is that the type of national governing alliance (regressive or progressive) affects the level of provincial inequality, but mediated by the type of subnational coalition that supports or resists that national policy. This work empirically examines this claim analyzing the configurations of the national and subnational distributive alliances in two Argentine provinces and in relation to labor rights regulations in the agricultural sector between 2003 and 2015.

Keywords: Inequality; Alliances; Intergovernmental Relations; Labor Rights; Provinces; Argentina

Giovanna França, Danilo Freire, and Umberto Mignozzetti, eds. Natural Resources and Policy Choices in Latin America (Berlin: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung), 2021

Argentina is a major producer of lithium, a vital mineral for making a transition from fossil fue... more Argentina is a major producer of lithium, a vital mineral for making a transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy. Mining is concentrated in three Northwestern provinces, Catamarca, Jujuy, and Salta. Although they have shared historical roots, cultural traditions, socioeconomic profiles, and political institutions as provincial subnational units in a federal system, there is striking variation in how mining projects articulate with local indigenous communities. In some lithium mining projects, companies offered concessions that improved local socioeconomic indicators and mitigated environmental damage. In others, mining companies either made minimal concessions or, alternatively chose to halt projects, usually in response to organized local resistance. Why do lithium mining ventures result in negotiated, unnegotiated, or aborted extraction? The article proposes a typology of modes of extraction together with an explanatory framework that centers on the strengths and strategies of communities and subnational governments in setting the terms of mining.

Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 2020

Throughout Latin American federations, programmatic welfare spending is increasingly nationally o... more Throughout Latin American federations, programmatic welfare spending is increasingly nationally oriented and bureaucratically delivered. By explaining the logic and the effects of combining two types of federal spending, discretionary and non-discretionary, this article uncovers an additional driver that contributes to understanding policymaking and its implementation not only in Argentina, but potentially in other robust federal systems such as Brazil, Canada, and the United States. Using original data on federal infrastructure and programmatic social welfare spending for the twenty-four provinces of Argentina between 2003 and 2015, we provide empirical evidence that both forms of spending penalize opposition districts and more populated urban provinces (regardless of partisan affinity), and thus undercut the ability of key governors to become future presidential challengers. This research suggests that presidents of territorially diverse federations with strong governors can utilize the dual-punishment spending strategy to alter the balance of power, reinforcing the dominance of the center.

Federaciones de las Américas: Descentralización, Relaciones Intergubernamentales y Recentralización, Mar 30, 2020

Diversos estudios sostienen que, en países federales, las elecciones se dirimen en los distritos ... more Diversos estudios sostienen que, en países federales, las elecciones se dirimen en los distritos más poblados (donde está la mayor cantidad de votantes) pero la gobernabilidad se asegura con el apoyo en el Congreso nacional de los distritos con menor población. Este, justamente, es uno de los efectos esperados de una de las principales instituciones del sistema federal, la sobrerrepresentación. Este trabajo analiza la política distributiva y las relaciones intergubernamentales durante los primeros años del gobierno de Mauricio Macri en la Argentina (2016-2019), las compara con las de los gobiernos de Néstor (2003-2007) y Cristina Kirchner (2007-2015), y analiza si tienen lugar los mismos efectos fiscales y políticos que espera parte de la literatura: distribución a las provincias más sobrerrepresentadas y coaliciones ganadoras con ellas. Para ello analiza la asignación de fondos federales discrecionales de obra pública y transferencias sociales (fondos de promoción y asistencia social y asignaciones familiares) para los veinticuatro distritos de Argentina (23 provincias y la Ciudad de Buenos Aires) entre los años 2003 a 2018. Evalúa, además, el impacto político en términos de gobernabilidad, usando un indicador de productividad legislativa. En la última sección se presentan algunas reflexiones finales sobre los resultados y las implicancias para el caso y la discusión comparada. Este análisis pretende informar a los debates sobre relaciones intergubernamentales en países federales, particularmente aquellos con grandes desigualdades entre regiones de sus territorios.

Studies in Comparative International Development, 2019

This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnatio... more This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnational level. The classical literature suggests that natural resource abundance has negative effects on well-being, a situation referred to as the resource curse. However, a novel strand of research emphasizes that rentier states worldwide exhibit contrasting outcomes. To account for such variation, this investigation aligns with approaches stressing the significance of contextual (place and institutional) factors to studying the resource curse. The main claim in this work is that both structural and institutional factors related to the extractive industry help account for variation in development outcomes. It contends that mineral rents are positively associated with human development and economic industrialization when the extractive sector is not geographically concentrated in enclave economies, and subnational fiscal institutions redistribute enough rents from producing to non-producing districts. It empirically tests this argument using a time series cross-sectional analysis, a difference-in-difference (DiD) estimation, and two case studies in Argentina, a country where subnational territorial units collect mineral royalties and have exogenously created their own rent-sharing regimes. It finally provides some comparative implications that may contribute to current debates on the socioeconomic impact of natural resource wealth.

Revista de la SAAP, May 30, 2019

En América Latina, a pesar de las mejoras en los niveles de desigualdad a nivel nacional, la desi... more En América Latina, a pesar de las mejoras en los niveles de desigualdad a nivel nacional, la desigualdad es aún elevada y hay indicios de que el proceso de su disminución se ha detenido. Una de las explicaciones de los límites en la reducción de la desigualdad debe buscarse en el nivel subnacional, ya que en este nivel perviven bolsones de muy elevada desigualdad aun cuando los gobiernos nacionales apliquen políticas redistributivas. En este trabajo indagamos sobre los factores en este nivel de gobierno que contribuyan a explicar las diferencias en la desigualdad de ingresos entre las provincias de la Argentina para ayudar a comprender los alcances y los límites de los procesos nacionales de reducción de la desigualdad. Luego de describir los casos usando datos de panel inéditos de desigualdad de ingreso y revisar la literatura sobre países de la región, el trabajo avanza en la identificación de factores políticos relacionados sistemáticamente con los niveles de desigualdad de las provincias argentinas.

Journal of Politics in Latin America, Jun 13, 2019

Violence is unequally distributed across provinces. In Argentina, the least violent provinces hav... more Violence is unequally distributed across provinces. In Argentina, the least violent provinces have a murder rate similar to Sweden’s. The most violent ones have a murder rate comparable to South Sudan’s. What explains this unequal distribution of violence? This article claims that political turnover at the provincial level reduces the partisan control over police forces and challenges previous informal pacts, while being in the opposition to the president decreases the likelihood of receiving federal assistance to fight violence. When both conditions are met at the same time, crime is more likely to increase. The study examines these claims using difference-in-difference and regression analysis for panel data of the Argentine provinces between 2002 and 2015 and a case study of the province of Santa Fe (the most violent in the country). In the conclusions, it also explores the comparative implications for the discussion on the unequal distribution of violence in federal democracies.

Tramas. Revista de Política, Sociedad y Economía, 2019

En Argentina, la desigualdad interpersonal disminuyó en los primeros años de los 2000. Sin embarg... more En Argentina, la desigualdad interpersonal disminuyó en los primeros años de los 2000. Sin embargo, la desigualdad entre provincias se mantiene escandalosamente alta. Argentina tiene la mayor desigualdad entre distritos de los cinco países más grandes de América Latina. ¿Bajo qué condiciones el gobierno nacional puede generar redistribución de las provincias ricas a las más pobres? El argumento principal de este trabajo es que los presidentes en países federales distribuyen fondos discrecionales favoreciendo no solo a sus aliados políticos. Los clivajes políticos, que dividen a las provincias en aliadas y opositoras, también se combinan con clivajes estructurales, que dividen a las provincias en ricas y pobres, pobladas y despobladas. Estos clivajes partidarios y estructurales también se articulan con el poder político (medido como apoyo legislativo en el congreso) y la popularidad presidencial para influir la distribución de fondos federales. El trabajo aborda la pregunta y evalúa el argumento analizando la asignación de fondos de obra pública (inversión real directa y transferencias de capital), que la mayoría de los especialistas consideran clave para estimular el crecimiento y la redistribución territorial. Se usan datos de la Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto (2005-2018) para analizar la distribución de obra pública durante el gobierno de Mauricio Macri, comparándolo con los gobiernos de Néstor y Cristina Kirchner. En la conclusión se exploran algunas implicancias comparadas con relación al debate sobre la desigualdad y la redistribución en países federales.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Nov 30, 2021

The Country Report on Local Government in Argentina is a product of the LoGov-project: "Local Gov... more The Country Report on Local Government in Argentina is a product of the LoGov-project: "Local Government and the Changing Urban-Rural Interplay". The H2020-MSCA-RISE-2018 project aims to provide solutions for local governments that address the fundamental challenges resulting from urbanisation. To address these complex issues, 18 partners from 17 countries and six continents share their expertise and knowledge in the realms of public law, political science, and public administration. LoGov identifies, evaluates, compares, and shares innovative practices that cope with the impact of changing urban-rural relations in major local government areas (WP 1-5). LICENSE CC BY 4.0

Revista de ciencia política (Santiago), 2024

Revista de la SAAP, 2021

Resumen: Este trabajo analiza la distribución de planes sociales en Argentina y presenta un resul... more Resumen: Este trabajo analiza la distribución de planes sociales en Argentina y presenta un resultado contraintuitivo. El Partido Justicialista de Argentina, que la literatura describe como clientelar, incrementó los fondos programáticos durante el gobierno de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, mientras que la coalición Cambiemos, que se presentó como programática, invirtió más en la distribución discrecional durante el gobierno de Mauricio Macri. El estudio presenta un análisis cuantitativo del total de 364 programas del gobierno nacional entre 2008 y 2019, explora los procesos que llevaron a los resultados en ambas administraciones usando fuentes secundarias y concluye con algunas implicancias comparadas. El principal argumento es que ambos partidos distribuyeron fondos discrecionales a través de movimientos sociales para contener posibles estallidos sociales, intercambiándolos por paz social y gobernabilidad.

Governance, 2022

Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a soc... more Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a social outbreak? This study proposes a theoretical argument that specifies how discretionary spending reduces conflict, highlighting the role of social movements in managing protests. It examines this and alternative arguments in Argentina, a country with strong social movements and historically large mobilizations, using statistical analysis
with an original database on protests and a population of 364 national government programs between 2008 and 2019. The article makes a contribution by finding a differential effect between specific types of social spending, programmatic and discre tional, and protests. It also specifies the linkage between the main variables using qualitative evidence during two presidencies. The goal of discretionary distribution is not to win an election but to ensure governance. The article finally raises some comparative implications on the role of social movements and welfare spending in Latin America.

Studies in Comparative International Development, 2019

This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnatio... more This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnational level. The classical literature suggests that natural resource abundance has negative effects on well-being, a situation referred to as the resource curse. However, a novel strand of research emphasizes that rentier states worldwide exhibit contrasting outcomes. To account for such variation, this investigation aligns with approaches stressing the significance of contextual (place and institutional) factors to studying the resource curse. The main claim in this work is that both structural and institutional factors related to the extractive industry help account for variation in development outcomes. It contends that mineral rents are positively associated with human development and economic industrialization when the extractive sector is not geographically concentrated in enclave economies, and subnational fiscal institutions redistribute enough rents from producing to non-producing districts. It empirically tests this argument using a time series cross-sectional analysis, a difference-indifference (DiD) estimation, and two case studies in Argentina, a country where subnational territorial units collect mineral royalties and have exogenously created their own rent-sharing regimes. It finally provides some comparative implications that may contribute to current debates on the socioeconomic impact of natural resource wealth.

Revista Ibero-Americana de Estudos Legislativos, 2015

What is the role of presidents in the politics of distribution in developing democracies? To what... more What is the role of presidents in the politics of distribution in developing democracies? To what extent do other political actors, such as legislators and governors, influence federal distribution? This paper studies the main factors that affect distributive politics in Argentina and Brazil, two highly unequal presidential federations in Latin America. The focus is on funds with high redistributive impact and over which the central government has large discretion: those for public infrastructure. Using original data on federal infrastructure spending for the 24 provinces in Argentina and the 27 states in Brazil for the period 1999-2011, we show that the distribution of infrastructure funds is fundamentally determined by executive politics. Despite this, our empirical findings indicate there is large variation between the two cases in the relevance of the partisan links between presidents and governors and the influence of congress and its committees. Furthermore, we observe that elections are not relevant in explaining distribution in either of the two cases and that presidents are mostly motivated by political considerations and that programmatic factors, such as equity and efficiency criteria, play a secondary role, especially in Argentina. We discuss some possible reasons for these results and their implications for the broader comparative debate on distributive politics.

Latin American Politics and Society, 2022

Mitigating climate change requires a global transition from fossil fuels to a “green economy” dri... more Mitigating climate change requires a global transition from fossil fuels to a “green economy” driven by renewable energies. This shift has fostered massive investments in mining resources, notably lithium in South America, needed to store renewable energies. These mining ventures often produce harmful externalities where lithium is located. In Argentina, a major producer, striking variation has occurred in the fortunes of lithium-mining projects. In some instances, mining companies offered concessions that mitigated environmental damage and improved local socioeconomic conditions. In others, companies made minimal concessions, and in a third set they halted projects in response to local resistance. Why do mining ventures result alternatively in negotiated, unnegotiated, or aborted extraction? The article proposes a new typology of modes of extraction together with a multilevel explanatory framework that centers on the strengths and strategies of transnational mining companies, subnational governments, and local communities in setting the terms for extracting lithium.

World Development, 2022

Can opportunities for undergoing voluntary oversight improve bureaucratic motivation and effort? ... more Can opportunities for undergoing voluntary oversight improve bureaucratic motivation and effort? Drawing on insights from the social sciences, we argue that voluntary oversight increases front-line bureaucrats’ sense of autonomy and competence, and may therefore increase their motivation and effort. Partnering with a provincial auditing body in Argentina, we implement an encouragement design in which school principals are invited to receive a voluntary audit of a publicly funded school meal program. We employ a two-level randomization, in which regions are first randomly assigned to a higher or lower rate of invitations, and then schools within regions are randomly assigned to treatment or control. We find divergent effects of treatment based on the density of treatment; in the group of regions assigned to the lower rate of invitations, school principals assigned to treatment report increased motivation and a decrease in school closings. In contrast, in the group of regions assigned to the higher rate of invitations, we observe the opposite effect. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork, we speculate that a higher rate of invitations may generate pressure to accept the invitation and thereby undermine any positive effects of volunteering. Our results suggest the promise of voluntary audits as well as the need for further research on the conditions under which voluntary oversight may have differing consequences for bureaucratic effort and motivation.

Governance, 2022

Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a soc... more Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a social outbreak? This study proposes a theoretical argument that specifies how discretionary spending reduces conflict, highlighting the role of social movements in managing protests. It examines this and alternative arguments in Argentina, a country with strong social movements and historically large mobilizations, using statistical analysis with an original database on protests and a population of 364 national government programs between 2008 and 2019. The article makes an empirical contribution by finding a differential effect between specific types of social spending, programmatic and discretional, and protests. It also specifies the linkage between the main variables using qualitative evidence during two presidencies. The goal of discretionary distribution is not to win an election but to ensure governance. The article finally raises some comparative implications on the role of social movements and welfare spending in Latin America.

Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2021

How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were... more How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were some Latin American countries more successful at containing the pandemic's most devastating health outcomes? We argue that national governments that were more collaborative in their response to COVID-19 were more successful in reducing death rates. Our original dataset offers a novel attempt to operationalise collaborative governance (CG). We undertake simple statistical tests to measure the relationship between CG and COVID-19-related mortality rates in Latin America. We then choose three case studies to assess whether collaboration was meaningful in practice. Initial evidence suggests governments that pursued CG were more effective at containing mortality rates early on in the pandemic. The collaboration helped to foster cooperation over resources; buy time to prepare for a potential case surge; and produce a unified message regarding what citizens should do to prevent viral spread.

Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2021

How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were... more How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were some Latin American countries more successful at containing the pandemic's most devastating health outcomes? We argue that national governments that were more collaborative in their response to COVID-19 were more successful in reducing death rates. Our original dataset offers a novel attempt to operationalise collaborative governance (CG). We undertake simple statistical tests to measure the relationship between CG and COVID-19-related mortality rates in Latin America. We then choose three case studies to assess whether collaboration was meaningful in practice. Initial evidence suggests governments that pursued CG were more effective at containing mortality rates early on in the pandemic. The collaboration helped to foster cooperation over resources; buy time to prepare for a potential case surge; and produce a unified message regarding what citizens should do to prevent viral spread.

Comparative Politics, 2021

Inequality is unequally distributed across the territory, and national averages obscure this vari... more Inequality is unequally distributed across the territory, and national averages obscure this variation. Pockets of very high inequality persist at the subnational level of government, even when national governments implement large scale redistributive policies. This study investigates which factors at the subnational level may help explaining differences in income inequality across units. The main claim is that in subnational units where local economic elites capture provincial states by occupying relevant positions in their governments have lower taxes on land, spend less in social programs, have more repression of federal labor rights, and, as a consequence, have higher inequality. The study uses a large-N analysis of original panel data for Argentina, presents a comparative study of two cases, and explores some comparative implications in the conclusions.

Revista de Ciencia Política, Apr 21, 2021

RESUMEN La desigualdad se distribuye de manera desigual en el territorio y los promedios naciona... more RESUMEN

La desigualdad se distribuye de manera desigual en el territorio y los promedios nacionales oscurecen esta variación. Este estudio investiga qué factores a nivel subnacional pueden ayudar a explicar las diferencias en la desigualdad entre distritos. El trabajo analiza de que manera las coaliciones subnacionales resisten o apoyan políticas redistributivas de los gobiernos nacionales. El principal argumento es que el tipo de alianza gobernante nacional (regresiva o progresiva), incide en el nivel de desigualdad provincial, pero mediada por el tipo de coalición subnacional que apoye o resista a esa política nacional. Este argumento es examinado empíricamente a través del análisis de la configuración de las alianzas distributivas nacionales y subnacionales en dos provincias argentinas y en relación a las regulaciones de derechos laborales en el sector agrícola entre 2003 y 2015.

Palabras clave: Desigualdad; Alianzas; Relaciones Intergubernamentales; Derechos Laborales; Provincias; Argentina

ABSTRACT

Inequality is unevenly distributed across the territory and national averages obscure this variation. This study investigates which subnational level factors can help explain differences in inequality among districts. It analyzes how subnational coalitions resist or support national governments’ redistributive policies. The main argument is that the type of national governing alliance (regressive or progressive) affects the level of provincial inequality, but mediated by the type of subnational coalition that supports or resists that national policy. This work empirically examines this claim analyzing the configurations of the national and subnational distributive alliances in two Argentine provinces and in relation to labor rights regulations in the agricultural sector between 2003 and 2015.

Keywords: Inequality; Alliances; Intergovernmental Relations; Labor Rights; Provinces; Argentina

Giovanna França, Danilo Freire, and Umberto Mignozzetti, eds. Natural Resources and Policy Choices in Latin America (Berlin: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung), 2021

Argentina is a major producer of lithium, a vital mineral for making a transition from fossil fue... more Argentina is a major producer of lithium, a vital mineral for making a transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy. Mining is concentrated in three Northwestern provinces, Catamarca, Jujuy, and Salta. Although they have shared historical roots, cultural traditions, socioeconomic profiles, and political institutions as provincial subnational units in a federal system, there is striking variation in how mining projects articulate with local indigenous communities. In some lithium mining projects, companies offered concessions that improved local socioeconomic indicators and mitigated environmental damage. In others, mining companies either made minimal concessions or, alternatively chose to halt projects, usually in response to organized local resistance. Why do lithium mining ventures result in negotiated, unnegotiated, or aborted extraction? The article proposes a typology of modes of extraction together with an explanatory framework that centers on the strengths and strategies of communities and subnational governments in setting the terms of mining.

Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 2020

Throughout Latin American federations, programmatic welfare spending is increasingly nationally o... more Throughout Latin American federations, programmatic welfare spending is increasingly nationally oriented and bureaucratically delivered. By explaining the logic and the effects of combining two types of federal spending, discretionary and non-discretionary, this article uncovers an additional driver that contributes to understanding policymaking and its implementation not only in Argentina, but potentially in other robust federal systems such as Brazil, Canada, and the United States. Using original data on federal infrastructure and programmatic social welfare spending for the twenty-four provinces of Argentina between 2003 and 2015, we provide empirical evidence that both forms of spending penalize opposition districts and more populated urban provinces (regardless of partisan affinity), and thus undercut the ability of key governors to become future presidential challengers. This research suggests that presidents of territorially diverse federations with strong governors can utilize the dual-punishment spending strategy to alter the balance of power, reinforcing the dominance of the center.

Federaciones de las Américas: Descentralización, Relaciones Intergubernamentales y Recentralización, Mar 30, 2020

Diversos estudios sostienen que, en países federales, las elecciones se dirimen en los distritos ... more Diversos estudios sostienen que, en países federales, las elecciones se dirimen en los distritos más poblados (donde está la mayor cantidad de votantes) pero la gobernabilidad se asegura con el apoyo en el Congreso nacional de los distritos con menor población. Este, justamente, es uno de los efectos esperados de una de las principales instituciones del sistema federal, la sobrerrepresentación. Este trabajo analiza la política distributiva y las relaciones intergubernamentales durante los primeros años del gobierno de Mauricio Macri en la Argentina (2016-2019), las compara con las de los gobiernos de Néstor (2003-2007) y Cristina Kirchner (2007-2015), y analiza si tienen lugar los mismos efectos fiscales y políticos que espera parte de la literatura: distribución a las provincias más sobrerrepresentadas y coaliciones ganadoras con ellas. Para ello analiza la asignación de fondos federales discrecionales de obra pública y transferencias sociales (fondos de promoción y asistencia social y asignaciones familiares) para los veinticuatro distritos de Argentina (23 provincias y la Ciudad de Buenos Aires) entre los años 2003 a 2018. Evalúa, además, el impacto político en términos de gobernabilidad, usando un indicador de productividad legislativa. En la última sección se presentan algunas reflexiones finales sobre los resultados y las implicancias para el caso y la discusión comparada. Este análisis pretende informar a los debates sobre relaciones intergubernamentales en países federales, particularmente aquellos con grandes desigualdades entre regiones de sus territorios.

Studies in Comparative International Development, 2019

This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnatio... more This article analyses the relation between mineral rents and development outcomes at the subnational level. The classical literature suggests that natural resource abundance has negative effects on well-being, a situation referred to as the resource curse. However, a novel strand of research emphasizes that rentier states worldwide exhibit contrasting outcomes. To account for such variation, this investigation aligns with approaches stressing the significance of contextual (place and institutional) factors to studying the resource curse. The main claim in this work is that both structural and institutional factors related to the extractive industry help account for variation in development outcomes. It contends that mineral rents are positively associated with human development and economic industrialization when the extractive sector is not geographically concentrated in enclave economies, and subnational fiscal institutions redistribute enough rents from producing to non-producing districts. It empirically tests this argument using a time series cross-sectional analysis, a difference-in-difference (DiD) estimation, and two case studies in Argentina, a country where subnational territorial units collect mineral royalties and have exogenously created their own rent-sharing regimes. It finally provides some comparative implications that may contribute to current debates on the socioeconomic impact of natural resource wealth.

Revista de la SAAP, May 30, 2019

En América Latina, a pesar de las mejoras en los niveles de desigualdad a nivel nacional, la desi... more En América Latina, a pesar de las mejoras en los niveles de desigualdad a nivel nacional, la desigualdad es aún elevada y hay indicios de que el proceso de su disminución se ha detenido. Una de las explicaciones de los límites en la reducción de la desigualdad debe buscarse en el nivel subnacional, ya que en este nivel perviven bolsones de muy elevada desigualdad aun cuando los gobiernos nacionales apliquen políticas redistributivas. En este trabajo indagamos sobre los factores en este nivel de gobierno que contribuyan a explicar las diferencias en la desigualdad de ingresos entre las provincias de la Argentina para ayudar a comprender los alcances y los límites de los procesos nacionales de reducción de la desigualdad. Luego de describir los casos usando datos de panel inéditos de desigualdad de ingreso y revisar la literatura sobre países de la región, el trabajo avanza en la identificación de factores políticos relacionados sistemáticamente con los niveles de desigualdad de las provincias argentinas.

Journal of Politics in Latin America, Jun 13, 2019

Violence is unequally distributed across provinces. In Argentina, the least violent provinces hav... more Violence is unequally distributed across provinces. In Argentina, the least violent provinces have a murder rate similar to Sweden’s. The most violent ones have a murder rate comparable to South Sudan’s. What explains this unequal distribution of violence? This article claims that political turnover at the provincial level reduces the partisan control over police forces and challenges previous informal pacts, while being in the opposition to the president decreases the likelihood of receiving federal assistance to fight violence. When both conditions are met at the same time, crime is more likely to increase. The study examines these claims using difference-in-difference and regression analysis for panel data of the Argentine provinces between 2002 and 2015 and a case study of the province of Santa Fe (the most violent in the country). In the conclusions, it also explores the comparative implications for the discussion on the unequal distribution of violence in federal democracies.

Tramas. Revista de Política, Sociedad y Economía, 2019

En Argentina, la desigualdad interpersonal disminuyó en los primeros años de los 2000. Sin embarg... more En Argentina, la desigualdad interpersonal disminuyó en los primeros años de los 2000. Sin embargo, la desigualdad entre provincias se mantiene escandalosamente alta. Argentina tiene la mayor desigualdad entre distritos de los cinco países más grandes de América Latina. ¿Bajo qué condiciones el gobierno nacional puede generar redistribución de las provincias ricas a las más pobres? El argumento principal de este trabajo es que los presidentes en países federales distribuyen fondos discrecionales favoreciendo no solo a sus aliados políticos. Los clivajes políticos, que dividen a las provincias en aliadas y opositoras, también se combinan con clivajes estructurales, que dividen a las provincias en ricas y pobres, pobladas y despobladas. Estos clivajes partidarios y estructurales también se articulan con el poder político (medido como apoyo legislativo en el congreso) y la popularidad presidencial para influir la distribución de fondos federales. El trabajo aborda la pregunta y evalúa el argumento analizando la asignación de fondos de obra pública (inversión real directa y transferencias de capital), que la mayoría de los especialistas consideran clave para estimular el crecimiento y la redistribución territorial. Se usan datos de la Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto (2005-2018) para analizar la distribución de obra pública durante el gobierno de Mauricio Macri, comparándolo con los gobiernos de Néstor y Cristina Kirchner. En la conclusión se exploran algunas implicancias comparadas con relación al debate sobre la desigualdad y la redistribución en países federales.

Durante los últimos años, Argentina ha experimentado una profunda transformación de sus instituci... more Durante los últimos años, Argentina ha experimentado una profunda transformación de sus instituciones públicas, producto de la redefinición del rol del Estado en la economía, de la redemocratización del sistema político y del cambio en el modelo de inserción internacional, entre otros. Ciertamente una de las dimensiones centrales de esta transformación, además del alcance de la intervención estatal, ha sido su naturaleza, particularmente en el plano de la división de tareas entre distintos niveles de Gobierno. En efecto, uno de los ejes principales del proceso de reformas acontecido en los años noventa en Argentina ha sido la descentralización. El punto a destacar en este libro es que la descentralización consiste en una transformación de la estructura político-institucional y de la dinámica de incentivos de las relaciones intergubernamentales que, al modificar los modos de operar de los diferentes niveles de gobierno en una estructura federal como la Argentina, impactan en las políticas públicas, tanto en su naturaleza como en su calidad. En este contexto, la dimensión intergubernamental deviene una dimensión clave, aunque frecuentemente soslayada, para comprender la problemática de la formulación e implementación de políticas estatales en la Argentina actual. Esto implica poner el acento en los problemas de coordinación interjursidiccional, de construcción de coaliciones políticas interregionales, de la interrelación entre acuerdos políticos y transferencias de recursos, para explicar la configuración de las políticas públicas. En síntesis, el presente trabajo analiza el impacto de los cambios en las tres dimensiones de la descentralización (política, administrativa y fiscal) sobre los gobiernos subnacionales (provinciales y municipales) y sobre la dinámica de relaciones entre niveles de gobierno en Argentina. Para ello, se coordinan los esfuerzos de investigadores de diversos centros académicos en la Argentina y el exterior que están actualmente desarrollando trabajos de investigación en las aéreas que abarca este proyecto.

Tensions between central authorities and subnational units over centralization and fiscal autonom... more Tensions between central authorities and subnational units over centralization and fiscal autonomy are on top of the political agenda in many developing federal countries.

This book examines historical changes in the balance between the resources that presidents and governors control and the policy responsibilities they have to deliver. It focuses on Argentina and Brazil, the most decentralized federal countries in Latin America, with the most powerful sub-national governments in the region. Using formal modelling, statistical tools, and comparative historical analyses, it examines substantive shifts in the allocation of resources and the distribution of administrative functions and explains under which conditions these changes occur. In doing so, it presents theoretical and comparative implications for the study of fiscal federalism and the functioning of developing federal democracies.

This text will be of key interest to scholars and students of federalism, intergovernmental relations, decentralization, and sub-national politics and more broadly to those studying comparative politics, democratization, political elites, public policy and economics.