Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes (original) (raw)
References
Donat, M. et al. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.118, 2098–2118 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Meehl, G. A., Tebaldi, C., Walton, G., Easterling, D. & McDaniel, L. Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U. S. Geophys. Res. Lett.36, L23701 (2009). Article Google Scholar
Perkins, S. E., Alexander, L. V. & Nairn, J. R. Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophys. Res. Lett.39, L20714 (2012). Google Scholar
Rahmstorf, S. & Coumou, D. Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA108, 17905–17909 (2011). ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Hansen, J., Sato, M. & Ruedy, R. Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA109, E2415–E2423 (2012). ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A. & Allen, M. R. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature432, 610–614 (2004). ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Otto, F. E. L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Jones, R. G. & Allen, M. R. Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett.39, L04702 (2012). Article Google Scholar
Min, S-K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W. & Hegerl, G. C. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature470, 378–381 (2011). ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Trenberth, K. E. Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability. WIREs Clim. Change2, 925–930 (2011). Article Google Scholar
Christidis, N., Stott, P., Brown, S., Hegerl, G. & Caesar, J. Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett.32, L20716 (2005). Article Google Scholar
Morak, S., Hegerl, G. & Christidis, N. Detectable changes in the frequency of temperature extremes. J. Clim.26, 1561–1574 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V., Zwiers, F., Zhang, X. & Bronaugh, D. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.118, 2473–2493 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J. M. & Meehl, G. A. Going to the extremes. Climatic Change79, 185–211 (2006). Article Google Scholar
Orlowsky, B. & Seneviratne, S. I. Global changes in extreme events: Regional and seasonal dimension. Climatic Change110, 669–696 (2012). Article Google Scholar
Kharin, V., Zwiers, F., Zhang, X. & Wehner, M. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change119, 345–357 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Seneviratne, S. I. et al. in Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 109–230 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2011). Google Scholar
Zhang, X. et al. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim. Change2, 851–870 (2011). Article Google Scholar
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V. & Teng, H. Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Clim. Dynam.38, 527–546 (2012). Article Google Scholar
Kenyon, J. & Hegerl, G. Influence of modes of climate variability on global temperature extremes. J. Clim.21, 3872–3889 (2008). Article Google Scholar
Fischer, E. & Schär, C. Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes. Clim. Dynam.33, 917–935 (2009). Article Google Scholar
Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.90, 1095–1107 (2009). Article Google Scholar
Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Phillips, A. Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nature Clim. Change2, 775–779 (2012). Article Google Scholar
Kendon, E., Rowell, D., Jones, R. & Buonomo, E. Robustness of future changes in local precipitation extremes. J. Clim.21, 4280–4297 (2008). Article Google Scholar
Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J. & Knutti, R. Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophys. Res. Lett.38, L23701 (2011). Article Google Scholar
Knutti, R. & Sedlacek, J. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Clim. Change3, 369–373 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Sterl, A. et al. When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? Geophys. Res. Lett.35, L14703 (2008). Article Google Scholar
Scaife, A., Woollings, T., Knight, J., Martin, G. & Hinton, T. Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models. J. Clim.23, 6143–6152 (2010). Article Google Scholar
Levy, A. et al. Can correcting feature location in simulated mean climate improve agreement on projected changes? Geophys. Res. Lett.40, 354–358 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Scheff, J. & Frierson, D. Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones. Geophys. Res. Lett.39, L18704 (2012). Article Google Scholar
Gent, P. et al. The community climate system model version 4. J. Clim.24, 4973–4991 (2011). Article Google Scholar