The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions (original) (raw)

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In the original version of this Article, the name of one co-author was omitted. This has now been corrected by the addition of Benjamin Dumont to the author list.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank D. Lobell for useful comments on an earlier version of the paper. E.W. acknowledges support from the CSIRO project ‘Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions’ and the project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ jointly funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Z.Z. received a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO and the Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program. P.M., A.M. and D.R. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). A.M. received the support of the EU in the framework of the Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement No. PCOFUND-GA-2010-267196. S.A. and D.C. acknowledge support provided by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative. C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905 L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and PD.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O'L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. B.B. was funded by USDA-NIFA Grant No: 2015-68007-23133.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Andrea Maiorano
    Present address: European Commission Joint Research Centre, 21 027, Ispra, Italy
  2. Phillip D. Alderman
    Present address: Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, 74078-6028, USA
  3. Jakarat Anothai
    Present address: Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, 90112, Thailand
  4. Davide Cammarano
    Present address: James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, Scotland, UK
  5. Gerrit Hoogenboom
    Present address: Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, USA
  6. Iurii Shcherbak
    Present address: Institute of Future Environment, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4001, Australia
  7. Katharina Waha
    Present address: CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, Queensland, 4067, Australia
  8. Enli Wang and Pierre Martre: These authors contributed equally to this work
  9. Reimund P. Rötter: Formerly: Natural Ressources Institute Finland (Luke), 00790 Helsinki, Finland
  10. Pramod K. Aggarwal and Yan Zhu: Authors from P.K.A. to Y.Z. are listed in alphabetical order
  11. Giacomo De Sanctis: The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the organization or institution with which they are currently affiliated.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, Australian Capital Territory, 2601, Australia
    Enli Wang & Zhigan Zhao
  2. UMR LEPSE, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 2 Place Viala, 34 060 Montpellier, France
    Pierre Martre & Andrea Maiorano
  3. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, 100193, Beijing, China
    Zhigan Zhao & Zhimin Wang
  4. Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
    Frank Ewert & Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
  5. Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
    Frank Ewert, Kurt C. Kersebaum & Claas Nendel
  6. Department of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany
    Reimund P. Rötter
  7. Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Goettingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
    Reimund P. Rötter
  8. USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, 85138, Arizona, USA
    Bruce A. Kimball, Gerard W. Wall & Jeffrey W. White
  9. The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, 85721, Arizona, USA
    Michael J. Ottman
  10. Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Apdo, 06600 Mexico, D.F, Mexico
    Matthew P. Reynolds & Phillip D. Alderman
  11. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), 110012, New Delhi, India
    Pramod K. Aggarwal
  12. AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University, Prosser, 99350-8694, Washington, USA
    Jakarat Anothai & Gerrit Hoogenboom
  13. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University East Lansing, 48823, Michigan, USA
    Bruno Basso, Benjamin Dumont & Iurii Shcherbak
  14. Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, 85764, Neuherberg, Germany
    Christian Biernath & Eckart Priesack
  15. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, 32611, Florida, USA
    Davide Cammarano & Senthold Asseng
  16. Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LS29JT, Leeds, UK
    Andrew J. Challinor & Ann-Kristin Koehler
  17. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Km 17, Recta Cali-Palmira Apartado Aéreo 6713, Cali, Colombia
    Andrew J. Challinor
  18. GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Via Carlo Magno, 1A, 43126 Parma, Italy
    Giacomo De Sanctis
  19. Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA), 39600 Muriedas, Spain
    Jordi Doltra
  20. Dep. Agronomia, University of Cordoba, Apartado 3048, 14080 Cordoba, Spain
    Elias Fereres & Margarita Garcia-Vila
  21. IAS-CSIC, 14080, Cordoba, Spain
    Elias Fereres & Margarita Garcia-Vila
  22. Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
    Sebastian Gayler & Thilo Streck
  23. Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, N1G 2W1, Ontario, Canada
    Leslie A. Hunt
  24. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742, Maryland, USA
    Roberto C. Izaurralde & Curtis D. Jones
  25. Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, 76502, Texas, USA
    Roberto C. Izaurralde
  26. Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830 Tjele, Denmark
    Mohamed Jabloun & Jørgen E. Olesen
  27. National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, Jiangsu, China
    Leilei Liu & Yan Zhu
  28. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
    Christoph Müller & Katharina Waha
  29. Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, 110 012, New Delhi, India
    Soora Naresh Kumar
  30. Department of Economic Development, Landscape & Water Sciences, Jobs, Transport and Resources, 3400, Horsham, Australia
    Garry O'Leary
  31. Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
    Taru Palosuo & Fulu Tao
  32. INRA, US1116 AgroClim, 84 914 Avignon, France
    Dominique Ripoche
  33. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, 10025, New York, USA
    Alex C. Ruane
  34. Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, Herts, UK
    Mikhail A. Semenov & Pierre Stratonovitch
  35. Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, 99164-6120, Washington, USA
    Claudio Stöckle
  36. PPS and WSG & CALM, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
    Iwan Supit & Joost Wolf
  37. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, 100101, Beijing, China
    Fulu Tao
  38. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, 4067, Queensland, Australia
    Peter Thorburn
  39. INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR), 31 326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
    Daniel Wallach

Authors

  1. Enli Wang
  2. Pierre Martre
  3. Zhigan Zhao
  4. Frank Ewert
  5. Andrea Maiorano
  6. Reimund P. Rötter
  7. Bruce A. Kimball
  8. Michael J. Ottman
  9. Gerard W. Wall
  10. Jeffrey W. White
  11. Matthew P. Reynolds
  12. Phillip D. Alderman
  13. Pramod K. Aggarwal
  14. Jakarat Anothai
  15. Bruno Basso
  16. Christian Biernath
  17. Davide Cammarano
  18. Andrew J. Challinor
  19. Giacomo De Sanctis
  20. Jordi Doltra
  21. Benjamin Dumont
  22. Elias Fereres
  23. Margarita Garcia-Vila
  24. Sebastian Gayler
  25. Gerrit Hoogenboom
  26. Leslie A. Hunt
  27. Roberto C. Izaurralde
  28. Mohamed Jabloun
  29. Curtis D. Jones
  30. Kurt C. Kersebaum
  31. Ann-Kristin Koehler
  32. Leilei Liu
  33. Christoph Müller
  34. Soora Naresh Kumar
  35. Claas Nendel
  36. Garry O'Leary
  37. Jørgen E. Olesen
  38. Taru Palosuo
  39. Eckart Priesack
  40. Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
  41. Dominique Ripoche
  42. Alex C. Ruane
  43. Mikhail A. Semenov
  44. Iurii Shcherbak
  45. Claudio Stöckle
  46. Pierre Stratonovitch
  47. Thilo Streck
  48. Iwan Supit
  49. Fulu Tao
  50. Peter Thorburn
  51. Katharina Waha
  52. Daniel Wallach
  53. Zhimin Wang
  54. Joost Wolf
  55. Yan Zhu
  56. Senthold Asseng

Contributions

E.W., P.M., S.A. and F.E. motivated the study; E.W. and P.M. designed and coordinated the study, and analysed the data; E.W., P.M., Z.Z., A.M., L.L. and B.B. conducted model improvement simulations; E.W., P.M., S.A., F.E., Z.Z., A.M., R.P.R.,.K.A., P.D.A., J.A., C.B., D.C., A.J.C., G.D.S., J.D., E.F., M.G.-V., S.G., G.H., L.A.H., R.C.I., M.J., C.D.J., K.C.K., A.-K.K., C.M., L.L., S.N.K., C.N., G.O'L., J.E.O., T.P., E.P., M.P.R., E.E.R., D.R., A.C.R., M.A.S., I.S., C.S., P.S., T.S., I.S., F.T., P.T., K.W., D.W., J.W. and Y.Z. carried out crop model simulations and discussed the results; B.A.K., M.J.O., G.W.W., J.W.W., M.P.R., P.D.A. and Z.W. provided experimental data; E.W. and P.M. analysed the results and wrote the paper.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence toEnli Wang or Pierre Martre.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Wang, E., Martre, P., Zhao, Z. et al. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.Nature Plants 3, 17102 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2017.102

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