Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon (original) (raw)

References

1. Lau, K. M. & Kim, K-M. The 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heatwave: Teleconnection of hydrometeorologic extremes. J. Hydrometeorol. 13, 392–403 (2012).
   Article Google Scholar
2. Li, C. F. & Yanai, M. The onset and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to land sea thermal contrast. J. Clim. 9, 358–375 (1996). Useful discussions on the reversal of the meridional temperature gradient essential for monsoon onset and the contribution of sensible and latent heating to warming over the Tibetan Plateau and Indian Ocean respectively.
   Article Google Scholar
3. Fasullo, J. & Webster, P. J. A hydrological definition of Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal. J. Clim. 16, 3200–3211 (2003).
   Article Google Scholar
4. Chou, C. Land-sea heating contrast in an idealized Asian summer monsoon. Clim. Dynam. 21, 11–25 (2003).
   Article Google Scholar
5. Prive, N. C. & Plumb, R. A. Monsoon dynamics with interactive forcing. Part I: Axisymmetric studies. J. Atmos. Sci. 64, 1417–1430 (2007).
   Article Google Scholar
6. Webster, P. J. et al. Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 103, 14451–14510 (1998). A comprehensive and authoritative review on monsoon processes and predictability.
   Article Google Scholar
7. Meehl, G. A. The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian-Ocean regions. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115, 27–50 (1987).
   Article Google Scholar
8. Pearce, R. P. & Mohanty, U. C. Onsets of the Asian summer monsoon 1979–82. J. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1620–1639 (1984).
   Article Google Scholar
9. Hoskins, B. J. & Rodwell, M. J. A model of the Asian summer monsoon. Part 1: The global scale. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1329–1340 (1995).
   Article Google Scholar
10. Slingo, J., Spencer, H., Hoskins, B., Berrisford, P. & Black, E. The meteorology of the western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the East African highlands. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 363, 25–42 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
11. Findlater, J. A major low-level air current near the Indian Ocean during northern summer: Interhemispheric transport of air in the lower troposphere over western Indian Ocean. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 551–554 (1970).
    Article Google Scholar
12. Boos, W. R. & Emanuel, K. A. Annual intensification of the Somali jet in a quasi-equilibrium framework: Observational composites. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135, 319–335 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
13. Bordoni, S. & Schneider, T. Monsoons as eddy-mediated regime transitions of the tropical overturning circulation. Nature Geosci. 1, 515–519 (2008).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
14. Chou, C. & Neelin, J. D. Mechanisms limiting the northward extent of the northern summer monsoons over North America, Asia, and Africa. J. Clim. 16, 406–425 (2003).
    Article Google Scholar
15. Chou, C., Neelin, J. D. & Su, H. Ocean-atmosphere-land feedbacks in an idealized monsoon. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 1869–1891 (2001).
    Article Google Scholar
16. Rodwell, M. J. & Hoskins, B. J. Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 1385–1404 (1996).
    Article Google Scholar
17. Shenoi, S. S. C., Shankar, D. & Shetye, S. R. Differences in heat budgets of the near-surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal: Implications for the summer monsoon. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 107, 3052 (2002).
    Article Google Scholar
18. Boos, W. R. & Kuang, Z. Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating. Nature 463, 218–222 (2010).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
19. Choudhury, A. D. & Krishnan, R. Dynamical response of the South Asian monsoon trough to latent heating from stratiform and convective precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci. 68, 1347–1363 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
20. Loschnigg, J. & Webster, P. J. A coupled ocean-atmosphere system of SST modulation for the Indian Ocean. J. Clim. 13, 3342–3360 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
21. Charney, J. G. & Shukla, J. in Monsoon Dynamics (eds Lighthill, J. & Pearce, R. P.) 99–109 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1981).
    Book Google Scholar
22. Bhat, G. S. The Indian drought of 2002 — a sub-seasonal phenomenon? Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 2583–2602 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
23. Subbiah, A. Initial Report on the Indian Monsoon Drought of 2002 (Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, 2002).
    Google Scholar
24. Gadgil, S. & Gadgil, S. The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Econ. Polit. Weekly 41, 4887–4895 (2006).
    Google Scholar
25. Turner, A. G. & Slingo, J. M. Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 10, 152–158 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
26. Sutton, R. T., Dong, B. W. & Gregory, J. M. Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L02701 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
27. Knutson, T. R. et al. Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J. Clim. 19, 1624–1651 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
28. Parthasarathy, B., Munot, A. A. & Kothawale, D. R. All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series — 1871–1993. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 49, 217–224 (1994).
    Article Google Scholar
29. Krishnamurthy, V. & Goswami, B. N. Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. J. Clim. 13, 579–595 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
30. Ramanathan, V. et al. Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 5326–5333 (2005).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
31. Rajeevan, M., Bhate, I., Kale, J. D. & Lal, B. High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr. Sci. 91, 296–306 (2006).
    Google Scholar
32. Mitchell, T. D. & Jones, P. D. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 693–712 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
33. Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S. & Xavier, P. K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314, 1442–1445 (2006). This article describes some of the competing trends in monsoon rainfall characteristics over recent decades.
    Article CAS Google Scholar
34. Gautam, R., Hsu, N. C., Lau, K. M. & Kafatos, M. Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: Distributions, trends and coupling. Ann. Geophys. 27, 3691–3703 (2009).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
35. Naidu, C. V. et al. Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114, D24108 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
36. Pattanaik, D. R. Analysis of rainfall over different homogeneous regions of India in relation to variability in westward movement frequency of monsoon depressions. Nat. Hazard. 40, 635–646 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
37. Bollasina, M. A., Ming, Y. & Ramaswamy, V. Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science 334, 502–505 (2011).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
38. Meehl, G. A. et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset — a new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383–1394 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
39. Annamalai, H., Hamilton, K. & Sperber, K. R. The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J. Clim. 20, 1071–1092 (2007). The effect of increased anthropogenic emissions on the mean monsoon, its interannual variability and teleconnection with ENSO in the CMIP3 models that are judged to reasonably simulate these aspects.
    Article Google Scholar
40. Niyogi, D., Kishtawal, C., Tripathi, S. & Govindaraju, R. S. Observational evidence that agricultural intensification and land use change may be reducing the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Wat. Resour. Res. 46, W03533 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
41. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
42. Allen, M. R. & Ingram, W. J. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419, 224–232 (2002). Useful discussion on the constraints to change in global mean and extremes of precipitation.
    CAS Google Scholar
43. Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 19, 5686–5699 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
44. Knutson, T. R. & Manabe, S. Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Clim. 8, 2181–2199 (1995).
    Article Google Scholar
45. Vecchi, G. A. & Soden, B. J. Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Clim. 20, 4316–4340 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
46. Gill, A. E. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 447–462 (1980).
    Article Google Scholar
47. Ashrit, R. G., Douville, H. & Kumar, K. R. Response of the Indian monsoon and ENSO-monsoon teleconnection to enhanced greenhouse effect in the CNRM coupled model. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn 81, 779–803 (2003).
    Article Google Scholar
48. Hu, Z. Z., Latif, M., Roeckner, E. & Bengtsson, L. Intensified Asian summer monsoon and its variability in a coupled model forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 2681–2684 (2000).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
49. Douville, H. et al. Impact of CO2 doubling on the Asian summer monsoon: Robust versus model-dependent responses. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn 78, 421–439 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
50. May, W. Simulated changes of the Indian summer monsoon under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions in a global time-slice experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1118 (2002).
    Article Google Scholar
51. Cherchi, A., Alessandri, A., Masina, S. & Navarra, A. Effects of increased CO2 levels on monsoons. Clim. Dynam. 37, 83–101 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
52. May, W. The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. Clim. Dynam. 37, 1843–1868 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
53. Ueda, H., Iwai, A., Kuwako, K. & Hori, M. E. Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06703 (2006). Discusses the competition between moisture and circulation changes in determining changes to Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the future.
    Article Google Scholar
54. Kitoh, A., Yukimoto, S., Noda, A. & Motoi, T. Simulated changes in the Asian summer monsoon at times of increased atmospheric CO2 . J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn 75, 1019–1031 (1997).
    Article Google Scholar
55. Meehl, G. A. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) Ch. 10 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
    Google Scholar
56. Meehl, G. A. et al. Response of the NCAR climate system model to increased CO2 and the role of physical processes. J. Clim. 13, 1879–1898 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
57. Douville, H. Impact of regional SST anomalies on the Indian monsoon response to global warming in the CNRM climate model. J. Clim. 19, 2008–2024 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
58. Ashfaq, M. et al. Suppression of South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L01704 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
59. Stowasser, M., Annamalai, H. & Hafner, J. Response of the South Asian summer monsoon to global warming: Mean and synoptic systems. J. Clim. 22, 1014–1036 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
60. Krishnamurthy, V. & Shukla, J. Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India. J. Clim. 13, 4366–4377 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
61. Krishnamurthy, V. & Shukla, J. Intraseasonal and seasonally persisting patterns of Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Clim. 20, 3–20 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
62. Sperber, K. R., Slingo, J. M. & Annamalai, H. Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian summer monsoon. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126, 2545–2574 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
63. Wheeler, M. C. & Hendon, H. H. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Weath. Rev. 132, 1917–1932 (2004).
    Article Google Scholar
64. Saith, N. & Slingo, J. The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Niño and Indian drought of 2002. Int. J. Climatol. 26, 1361–1378 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
65. Sperber, K. R. & Annamalai, H. Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability. Part 1: Systematic errors and caution on use of metrics. Clim. Dynam. 31, 345–372 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
66. Dhar, O. N. & Nandargi, S. On some characteristics of severe rainstorms of India. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 50, 205–212 (1995).
    Article Google Scholar
67. Ajayamohan, R. S., Merryfield, W. J. & Kharin, V. V. Increasing trend of synoptic activity and its relationship with extreme rain events over central India. J. Clim. 23, 1004–1013 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
68. Dash, S. K., Kumar, J. R. & Shekhar, M. S. On the decreasing frequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian region. Curr. Sci. 86, 1404–1411 (2004).
    Google Scholar
69. Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M. & Parsons, D. B. The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 1205–1217 (2003).
    Article Google Scholar
70. Chou, C., Neelin, J. D., Chen, C. A. & Tu, J. Y. Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Clim. 22, 1982–2005 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
71. Semenov, V. A. & Bengtsson, L. Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: Greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM. Clim. Dynam. 19, 123–140 (2002).
    Article Google Scholar
72. Turner, A. G. & Slingo, J. M. Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135, 549–567 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
73. Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J. M. & Meehl, G. A. Going to the extremes. Climatic Change 79, 185–211 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
74. Sun, Y., Solomon, S., Dai, A. & Portmann, R. W. How often does it rain? J. Clim. 19, 916–934 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
75. Joseph, P. V. & Simon, A. Weakening trend of the southwest monsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to the present. Curr. Sci. 89, 687–694 (2005).
    Google Scholar
76. Dash, S. K., Kulkarni, M. A., Mohanty, U. C. & Prasad, K. Changes in the characteristics of rain events in India. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114, D10109 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
77. Lin, J-L. et al. Subseasonal variability associated with Asian summer monsoon simulated by 14 IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs. J. Clim. 21, 4541–4567 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
78. Kumar, K. K., Rajagopalan, B. & Cane, M. A. On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284, 2156–2159 (1999).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
79. Kumar, K. K., Rajagopalan, B., Hoerling, M., Bates, G. & Cane, M. Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño. Science 314, 115–119 (2006).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
80. Turner, A. G., Inness, P. A. & Slingo, J. M. The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 1143–1157 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
81. Meehl, G. A., Teng, H. Y. & Branstator, G. Future changes of El Niño in two global coupled climate models. Clim. Dynam. 26, 549–566 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
82. Meehl, G. A. & Arblaster, J. M. Mechanisms for projected future changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation. Clim. Dynam. 21, 659–675 (2003).
    Article Google Scholar
83. Turner, A. G., Inness, P. M. & Slingo, J. M. The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 781–804 (2005). Demonstrates the importance of capturing mean state SST in a coupled model for accurate portrayal of the monsoon–ENSO teleconnection.
    Article Google Scholar
84. Joseph, R. & Nigam, S. ENSO evolution and teleconnections in IPCC's twentieth-century climate simulations: Realistic representation? J. Clim. 19, 4360–4377 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
85. AchutaRao, K. & Sperber, K. R. ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: Are the current models better? Clim. Dynam. 27, 1–15 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
86. Lloyd, J., Guilyardi, E., Weller, H. & Slingo, J. The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 10, 170–176 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
87. Collins, M. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nature Geosci. 3, 391–397 (2010). Succinct review of the projected climatic changes to the mean state of the tropical Pacific and our uncertainty in changes to ENSO frequency and amplitude.
    Article CAS Google Scholar
88. Wang, B. in Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System (eds Lau, K. M. & Waliser, D. E.) Ch. 10, 307–362 (Springer, 2005).
    Book Google Scholar
89. Prasanna, V. & Annamalai, H. Moist dynamics of extended monsoon breaks over South Asia. J. Clim. 25, 3810–3831 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
90. Goswami, B. N., Ajayamohan, R. S., Xavier, P. K. & Sengupta, D. Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1431 (2003).
    Google Scholar
91. Rayner, N. A. et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108, 4407 (2003).
    Article Google Scholar
92. Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
93. Huffman, G. J. et al. The TRMM multisatellite precipitation analysis (TMPA): Quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J. Hydrometeorol. 8, 38–55 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
94. Webster, P. J. & Yang, S. Monsoon and ENSO — selectively interactive systems. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 118, 877–926 (1992).
    Article Google Scholar
95. Sardeshmukh, P. D., Compo, G. P. & Penland, C. Changes of probability associated with El Niño. J. Clim. 13, 4268–4286 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
96. Wang, C. A modeling study on the climate impacts of black carbon aerosols. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 109, D03106 (2004).
    Google Scholar
97. Lau, K. M. & Kim, K. M. Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall, and circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L21810 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
98. Lau, K. M., Kim, M. K. & Kim, K. M. Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing: The role of the Tibetan Plateau. Clim. Dynam. 26, 855–864 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
99. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M. & Collins, W. D. Effects of black carbon aerosols on the Indian monsoon. J. Clim. 21, 2869–2882 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
100. Nigam, S. & Bollasina, M. “Elevated heat pump” hypothesis for the aerosol-monsoon hydroclimate link: “Grounded” in observations? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115, D16201 (2010).
     Article Google Scholar
101. Lau, K. M. & Kim, K. M. Comment on '“Elevated heat pump” hypothesis for the aerosol-monsoon hydroclimate link: “Grounded” in observations?”' by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 116, D07203 (2011).
     Google Scholar
102. Ackerman, A. S. et al. Reduction of tropical cloudiness by soot. Science 288, 1042–1047 (2000).
     Article CAS Google Scholar
103. Norris, J. R. Has northern Indian Ocean cloud cover changed due to increasing anthropogenic aerosol? Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 3271–3274 (2001).
     Article Google Scholar

Download references