A Disease-Mediated Trophic Cascade in the Serengeti and its Implications for Ecosystem C (original) (raw)
Figure 2
Fits to the data for the best model.
(A) wildebeest, (B) elephants, and (C) proportion of Serengeti National Park burned. Each subfigure illustrates observations (filled circle), posterior means of estimated true values (solid line), and 95% credible intervals for the posterior distributions (dashed lines); standard errors for the observed values are shown for the wildebeest data. (D) Annualized rates of per capita tree density change (r), centred on the midpoints of each time span (e.g., a value of r based on photos taken in 1980 and 1990 is centred on 1985). Correlations among points (corresponding to photo sites) are not shown for legibility, except for two sites: (blue and red solid lines, data; dashed lines, model fit). (E) Model fit for rate of per capita tree density change (mean and 95% credible intervals) plotted jointly over time with observed values of r (the values are means for the midpoint values in [D]). Predicted versus observed values of (F) fire (proportion of area burned) and (G) rates of per capita tree density change, and (H) model residuals from (G) versus the logarithm of initial tree density corresponding to the start of each photo sequence.