Inferring the effective reproductive number from deterministic and semi-deterministic compartmental models using incidence and mobility data (original) (raw)
Fig 6
Inference on DGP3.
Comparison between expected values and data. On the LHS, for each model, we show 100 overlapped simulations of the predicted incidence against daily case counts. On the RHS, for each model, we show 100 overlapped simulations of the predicted relative transmission rate against Apple’s mobility data. In this plot, we estimate the predicted values from the posterior distribution of each of the DGP3’s nine candidate process models.