Inferring the effective reproductive number from deterministic and semi-deterministic compartmental models using incidence and mobility data (original) (raw)
Fig 7
Comparison of predicted latent states.
In this plot, predicted values stem either from the filtering distribution (DGP1 and DGP2) or the posterior predictive distribution (DGP3). Here, DGP3’s process model corresponds to the structure that describes the transmission rate in terms of a 4th-order information delay. Further, solid lines indicates the median, and the ribbons represent the 95% CI. (A) Comparison between predicted incidences by DGP (solid lines and ribbons) and weekly detected COVID-19 cases (rhombi) in Ireland during the first wave. (B) Comparison between predicted relative transmission rates by DGP (solid lines and ribbons) and Apple’s driving mobility indexes (points) in Ireland during the first wave. (C) Predicted effective reproductive numbers by DGP (solid lines and ribbons) during Ireland’s first COVID-19 wave. The dashed horizontal line denotes the epidemics threshold.