Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases (original) (raw)
Figure 1
Time series of new cases for an emerging infectious disease vs. a standard epidemic.
(a) Laboratory confirmed new human H5N1 avian influenza cases, from WHO reports in Vietnam (from January 2004 to June 2006); (b) Number of isolates for seasonal H3N2 influenza in the USA, over the 2004–2005 season. Note the 100-fold difference in case numbers (_y_-axis) between panel (a) and (b). For an emerging infectious disease such as H5N1 influenza in humans, case numbers are small, very stochastic, and alternate short outbreaks with long quiet periods.