Glenn McGregor | Durham University (original) (raw)

Papers by Glenn McGregor

Climatic Change, Oct 13, 2009

The atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere have had a significant impact on ... more The atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere have had a significant impact on the climate of the Antarctic and there is much evidence that these circulation patterns have changed in the recent past. This change is thought to have contributed to the warming trend observed at the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 50 years -one of the largest trends observed in this period on the planet. The trends associated with the continental Antarctic climate are less clear but are likely to be impacted less directly by atmospheric circulation changes. The circulation changes can be put into the context of longer timescales by considering atmospheric circulation reconstructions that have been performed using data from Antarctic ice cores. In this review paper we look at the main body of work examining: Antarctic climate trends; the understanding and impact of atmospheric circulation of the mid-to high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere; and the usefulness and reliability of atmospheric circulation reconstructions from Antarctic ice core data. Finally, beyond several of the more quantitative reconstructions, it is deemed that an assessment of their consistency is not possible due to the variety of circulation characteristics that the various reconstructions consider.

Ciencia & Saude Coletiva, Dec 1, 2009

Hydrological Processes, Apr 24, 2017

Science of The Total Environment, 2017

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold ... more Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc, depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most oppressive conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon.

International Journal of Climatology, Jun 24, 2019

Earth-Science Reviews, 1977

Earth Interactions, 2016

This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low te... more This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low temperature episodes (LTE) in England, for the 26-yr period 1974–99, and to reveal possible associations with increased mortality rates. For this purpose, backward airmass trajectories, corresponding to LTE in five regions of England, were deployed. A statistically significant increase in mortality levels, at the 0.05 level, was found for LTE, compared to non-LTE days across all five regions. Seven categories of atmospheric trajectory patterns associated with LTE were identified: east, local, west, North Atlantic, Arctic, southwest, and Scandinavian. Consideration of the link between airmass trajectory patterns and mortality levels by region revealed a possible west-to-east split in the nature of air masses connected with elevated mortality. Specifically, for the West Midlands and northwest regions, relatively warm winter weather conditions from the west, most likely associated with the ea...

Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research

Background and Aims. The cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climat... more Background and Aims. The cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climate change. Yet assessments of future wine climates remain undeveloped. Accordingly, this study assesses how climate change might modify frost risk for Chardonnay in the Southeast England viticulture region. Methods and Results. Cold-bias-corrected climate projections from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) climate model under RCP8.5 are applied with phenological models to determine how frost risk and the timing of key grapevine phenophases might alter under climate change. Notwithstanding the uncertainties associated with projections of key viticulture-related bioclimate variables, the last spring frost was found to advance at a greater rate than budburst, indicating a general decrease in frost risk. Conclusions. Although projections point to an improving climate for viticulture across Southeast England, frost will remain a risk for viticulture, albeit at a red...

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013

The climate characteristics of summer human thermal discomfort in Athens and its connection to at... more The climate characteristics of summer human thermal discomfort in Athens and its connection to atmospheric circulation are studied for the period 1954-2012. The human thermal discomfort is examined in terms of the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) discomfort index for calm and light wind (3 ms −1) conditions. Its inter-annual variability is characterised by a significant increase from the middle 1980s to the end of the study period. The onset and the cessation of the discomfort period are found to take place around the beginning of July and the end of August respectively, but from middle 1980s the dates of onset and cessation have slightly moved earlier and later, respectively, leading to a longer summer discomfort period. The connection between human thermal discomfort and atmospheric circulation is studied by examining the distribution of discomfort cases across six objectively defined circulation types over Europe, based on Athens weather characteristics. High values of the PMV discomfort index are mainly associated with two typical high-summer pressure patterns with the intensity of discomfort depending on the pressure gradient over the Aegean Sea. On the contrary, low PMV discomfort index values prevail mainly on days typified by the other four circulation types, which are more frequent during May, June, and September.

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Con... more This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial ...

Urban Climate Science for Planning Healthy Cities, 2021

International Journal of Biometeorology, 2019

Cold-and heat-related mortality poses significant public health concerns worldwide. Although ther... more Cold-and heat-related mortality poses significant public health concerns worldwide. Although there are numerous studies dealing with the association between extreme ambient temperature and mortality, only a small number adopt a synoptic climatological approach in order to understand the nature of weather systems that precipitate increases in cold or heatrelated mortality. In this paper, the Lamb Weather Type synoptic classification is used to examine the relationship between daily mortality and weather patterns across nine regions of England. Analysis results revealed that the population in England is more susceptible to cold weather. Furthermore, it was found that the Easterly weather types are the most hazardous for public health all-year-long, however during the cold period the results are more evident and spatially homogenous. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the most dangerous weather conditions are not always associated with extreme (high or low) temperatures, a finding which points to the complexity of weather-related health effects and highlights the importance of a synoptic climatological approach in elucidating the relationship between temperature and mortality.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have f... more The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have far reaching consequences for public health globally. We explored whether global, regional and country-level rates of people affected by natural disasters (PAD) are linked to ENSO. Annual numbers of PAD between 1964–2017 recorded on the EM-DAT disaster database were combined with UN population data to create PAD rates. Time-series regression was used to assess de-trended associations between PAD and 2 ENSO indices: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate El Niño Index (MEI). Over 95% of PAD were caused by floods, droughts or storms, with over 75% of people affected by these three disasters residing in Asia. Globally, drought-related PAD rate increased sharply in El Niño years (versus neutral years). Flood events were the disaster type most strongly associated with El Niño regionally: in South Asia, flood-related PAD increased by 40.5% (95% CI 19.3% to 65.6%) for each boundary point incr...

Environmental research, Jan 18, 2015

Research examining associations between weather and human health frequently includes the effects ... more Research examining associations between weather and human health frequently includes the effects of atmospheric humidity. A large number of humidity variables have been developed for numerous purposes, but little guidance is available to health researchers regarding appropriate variable selection. We examine a suite of commonly used humidity variables and summarize both the medical and biometeorological literature on associations between humidity and human health. As an example of the importance of humidity variable selection, we correlate numerous hourly humidity variables to daily respiratory syncytial virus isolates in Singapore from 1992 to 1994. Most water-vapor mass based variables (specific humidity, absolute humidity, mixing ratio, dewpoint temperature, vapor pressure) exhibit comparable correlations. Variables that include a thermal component (relative humidity, dewpoint depression, saturation vapor pressure) exhibit strong diurnality and seasonality. Humidity variable sele...

As part of a state-wide effort to characterize the vulnerability of Mississippi's dams, we ar... more As part of a state-wide effort to characterize the vulnerability of Mississippi's dams, we are developing a new set of vulnerability assessment tools. Our vulnerability assessment methods will consider earlier attempts to develop risk indexing methods for dams, but will be designed to be applied to Mississippi's entire database of over 3,700 dams. Unlike earlier efforts to dams, which emphasized hazards posed by the dams, our methods will be designed to consider intrinsic and extrinsic vulnerability, and consider consequences as well. Intrinsic sources of vulnerability consider such factors as the potential for unstable slopes, piping, and spillway inadequacy. Extrinsic sources of vulnerability will include features such as the potential for intentional or unintentional human acts. Other factors that will be included will be the potential for neglect of maintenance of the dam and susceptibility to interference from wildlife. Consequences will be assessed by considering the d...

Risk Management - Current Issues and Challenges, 2012

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2006

The winter climate of the British Isles is characterized by considerable interannual variability,... more The winter climate of the British Isles is characterized by considerable interannual variability, which, because of the general climate sensitivity of a number of health outcomes, places at times considerable pressure on the provision of health services. Seasonal climate forecasts potentially could improve management within the health sector and assist in hedging against the vagaries of climatic variability. For this reason, an exploratory analysis of the potential utility of seasonal climate forecasting for the health sector in the United Kingdom is presented here. Study results revealed that the general level of winter mortality at the monthly to seasonal time scale possesses a strong association with simple descriptors of winter climate such as maximum temperature and the number of days below a given temperature threshold. Because such climate indices can be derived from the output of coupled seasonal climate prediction models, predictions of general levels of mortality may be po...

BMJ, 2021

and colleagues describe the health consequences of extreme urban heat and the priorities for acti... more and colleagues describe the health consequences of extreme urban heat and the priorities for action and research to mitigate the harms

Public Health

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