Brian Phillips | University of Essex (original) (raw)

Books by Brian Phillips

Los expertos están divididos entre los que defienden que el terrorismo es un instrumento eficaz p... more Los expertos están divididos entre los que defienden que el terrorismo es un instrumento eficaz para conseguir concesiones políticas y aquellos que argumentan que son muy pocos los grupos terroristas que han conseguido sus objetivos estratégicos a largo plazo. El éxito o no de la violencia política es una cuestión de vital importancia a nivel teórico y práctico para los gobiernos y sociedades que se enfrentan a amenazas terroristas, así como para los propios grupos terroristas (interesados en la supervivencia del grupo). La relevancia operativa resulta, también, incuestionable: identificar las condiciones que llevan al fracaso del terrorismo sería de gran utilidad para los responsables de la seguridad. Este número aborda estas y otras aportaciones recientes al debate sobre la eficacia del terrorismo; destaca varias de las problemáticas inherentes a la discusión académica y ofrece una series de estudios de caso: desde el terrorismo yihadista en el Reino Unido y Francia hasta la estrategia no violenta en el Sáhara Occidental, pasando por la violencia revolucionaria en El Salvador y Uruguay.

Papers by Brian Phillips

Terrorism and Political Violence, Sep 6, 2017

Prominent scholars criticize terrorism research for lacking sufficient empirical testing of argum... more Prominent scholars criticize terrorism research for lacking sufficient empirical testing of arguments. Interestingly, one of the most widely-cited estimates in terrorism studies has not been evaluated using the many data sources now available. Rapoport's 1992 claim, that perhaps 90 percent of terrorist groups last less than one year, has been described as part of the conventional wisdom. This estimate is frequently used to justify studies of terrorist group longevity, a substantial line of research in recent years. Is the estimate accurate? Scholars increasingly publish data sets of terrorist organizations, but no one has analyzed them collectively to see if the 90 percent claim holds up. This article examines the eight largest global data sets of terrorist group longevity, covering 1968-2013. The samples vary considerably, but the percent of groups that do not survive beyond their first year in these relevant data sets is between 25-74 percent. Across all data sets, on average about 50 percent of terrorist organizations do not make it past their first year. There is some variation depending on group motivations, consistent with Rapoport's "wave" theory. However, overall, terrorist organizations appear to be more durable than the conventional wisdom suggests. I thank David C. Rapoport for helpful comments on an earlier draft. I also thank Laura

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

Many governments maintain lists of terrorist groups, imposing sanctions on designated organizatio... more Many governments maintain lists of terrorist groups, imposing sanctions on designated organizations. However, the logic behind designation remains unclear. Furthermore, most studies focus on Western countries. This paper develops arguments for why attack attributes, group attributes, and policy diffusion might explain proscription. Empirically, we examine hundreds of militant organizations to see which are listed by the European Union, India, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, or the United States. Generally, designation does not seem to be driven by target or attack severity. It often results from diffusion: most countries follow the United States. Islamist group motivation is also an important factor. Governments around the world have implemented so-called terrorist designation lists, which label groups as terrorists for counter-terrorism purposes. However, there is no consensus about the designated organizations, and lists vary considerably. Even though the popularity of designation lists is growing, 1 the "terrorist" label is highly debated and ambiguous, not only among governments and policymakers, but also among academics. 2 Designation, also called proscription, is important to understand because governments expend resources putting groups on lists to "name and shame" them, and subject them to formal sanctions. There is growing evidence that the lists have serious consequences-intended and unintended. 3 Less is known about why some groups end up designated as terrorists, while others do not. This is a substantial gap in the literature, since designation apparently has important effects. Most studies of terrorist group designation analyze Western countries, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, or the European Union. 4 Focusing only on determinants affecting the designation of terrorist groups by Western governments restricts the studies to Western threat perceptions. Other types of countries have created terrorist lists, but it remains unclear if the logic of listing differs for these countries compared to the often-studied Western states. Moreover, the one study to explicitly compare terrorist lists and their determinants quantitatively includes a limited number of measures of terrorist group attributes, and only examined groups through 2008. 5

SSRN Electronic Journal

Which countries are likely to be subjects of research in the study of armed conflict? Evidence fr... more Which countries are likely to be subjects of research in the study of armed conflict? Evidence from other fields suggests that research often focuses disproportionately on the West, but it is unclear to what extent this is true in conflict studies. We suggest that a baseline explanation of research focus is each country's conflict experience, and we present two additional hypotheses: Western bias and research feasibility. Empirically, we count countries in the abstracts of five prominent conflict or security journals, 1990-2015. We also manually count single-country case studies. Western countries, measured by U.N. voting or geographic location, appear more than non-Western countries, even after considering conflict, wealth, and other factors. There is less support for the research feasibility argument, measured by each country's official languages and democracy. We find French-and Spanish-language countries less likely to appear in the literature. We conclude with a discussion of under-studied countries and offer related suggestions.

Terrorism and Political Violence , 2024

How do militant organizations respond to counterterrorism? A vast literature seeks to understand ... more How do militant organizations respond to counterterrorism? A vast literature seeks to understand the effects of counterterrorism, examining outcomes such as levels of violence. However, violence is only one way that militant groups can respond to pressure. We focus on terrorist designation or proscription, the sanctions many states and international organizations impose on militants as an attempt to weaken them. We introduce a new typology of armed group responses to counterterrorism: (L)egal tactics like lawsuits or petitions, (I)dentity shifts like name changes or fragmentation, (V)iolence increases or decreases, and (E)conomic or financial tactics such as changing funding sources. These four approaches can be summarized by the acronym LIVE. Empirically, we illustrate the model with examples from the case of militant organizations in Pakistan, an important and under-studied case. Overall, the LIVE typology can be helpful for anticipating the repertoire of responses to counterterrorism, and for explaining armed group behavior generally.

Supplemental Material, insurgent_terrorism_appendix_august_2018 for Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgen... more Supplemental Material, insurgent_terrorism_appendix_august_2018 for Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgent Targeting of Civilians by Victor Asal, Brian J. Phillips, R. Karl Rethemeyer, Corina Simonelli, and Joseph K. Young in Journal of Conflict Resolution

International Studies Review

Which countries are likely to be subjects of research in the study of armed conflict? Evidence fr... more Which countries are likely to be subjects of research in the study of armed conflict? Evidence from other fields suggests that research often focuses disproportionately on the West, but it is unclear to what extent this is true in conflict studies. We suggest that a baseline explanation of research focus is each country’s conflict experience, and we present two additional hypotheses: Western bias and research feasibility. Empirically, we count countries in the abstracts of five prominent conflict or security journals, 1990–2015. We also manually count single-country case studies. Western countries, measured by U.N. voting or geographic location, appear more than non-Western countries, even after considering conflict, wealth, and other factors. There is less support for the research feasibility argument, measured by each country’s official languages and democracy. We find French- and Spanish-language countries less likely to appear in the literature. We conclude with a discussion of ...

The Power of Global Performance Indicators

The Bureau of Counterterrorism within the State Department reports "FTO designations play a criti... more The Bureau of Counterterrorism within the State Department reports "FTO designations play a critical role in our fight against terrorism and are an effective means of curtailing support for terrorist activities and pressuring groups to get out of the terrorism business." See U.S. State Department, Bureau of Counterterrorism "Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

Latin American Politics and Society, 2020

ABSTRACTCriminal groups often avoid the limelight, shunning publicity. However, in some instances... more ABSTRACTCriminal groups often avoid the limelight, shunning publicity. However, in some instances, they overtly communicate, such as with banners or signs. This article explains the competition dynamics behind public criminal communication and provides theory and evidence of the conditions under which it emerges. Relying on a new dataset of approximately 1,800 banners publicly deployed by Mexican criminal groups from 2007 to 2010, the study identifies the conditions behind such messaging. The findings suggest that criminal groups “go public” in the presence of interorganizational contestation, violence from authorities, antagonism toward the local media, local demand for drugs, and local drug production. Some of these factors are associated only with communication toward particular audiences: rivals, the state, or the public. An interesting finding is that the correlates of criminal propaganda are sometimes distinct from those of criminal violence, suggesting that these phenomena ar...

The Oxford Handbook of Terrorism, 2019

Most terrorism is carried out by organizations with particular political motivations, mobilizatio... more Most terrorism is carried out by organizations with particular political motivations, mobilization issues, and other characteristics that affect their behavior, including their attacks. Group dynamics are often overlooked when research focuses on units of analysis such as countries or individuals. However, understanding the organizational dynamics of terrorism can shed light on this type of violence in important ways. This chapter begins by discussing definitions of key concepts, and then analyzes recent literature on several prominent topics: outbidding, internal group dynamics, and organizational longevity or failure. It concludes by noting potential avenues for future research, including more work on strategic interactions between terrorist organizations and states, as well as increased dialogue with research on related topics such as civil conflict.

When Does Terrorism Work?, 2018

Perspectives on terrorism, 2018

In the past 10 years in Mexico, more than 100,000 people have been killed in violence related to ... more In the past 10 years in Mexico, more than 100,000 people have been killed in violence related to organized crime. Some attacks have left horrific scenes, meant to send messages to the public or government. Debate continues about how to characterize this violence, and some observers describe it as “terrorism” or its perpetrators as “terrorists.” This article emphasizes that Mexico has experienced terrorist tactics by criminal organizations. This implies that while the perpetrators are better thought of (and dealt with) as criminal groups, some of their violence at least partially fulfills the criteria to be defined as terrorism. The use of terrorist tactics by criminal groups is an understudied aspect of the crime-terror nexus because more research examines crime by terrorist groups. The article discusses three tactics seen in Mexico: bombings, violent communication, and attacks against politicians. It then presents comparable examples from other countries, such as Brazil, Colombia, ...

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2018

How do conciliatory and coercive counterinsurgency tactics affect militant group violence against... more How do conciliatory and coercive counterinsurgency tactics affect militant group violence against civilians? Scholars of civil war increasingly seek to understand intentional civilian targeting, often referred to as terrorism. Extant research emphasizes group weakness, or general state attributes such as regime type. We focus on terrorism as violent communication and as a response to government actions. State tactics toward groups, carrots and sticks, should be important for explaining insurgent terror. We test the argument using new data on terrorism by insurgent groups, with many time-varying variables, covering 1998 through 2012. Results suggest government coercion against a group is associated with subsequent terrorism by that group. However, this is only the case for larger insurgent groups, which raises questions about the notion of terrorism as a weapon of the weak. Carrots are often negatively related to group terrorism. Other factors associated with insurgent terrorism incl...

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2017

Defence and Peace Economics, 2021

The Violent Non-State Actor Rivalry (ViNSAR) dataset compiles information on competition and inte... more The Violent Non-State Actor Rivalry (ViNSAR) dataset compiles information on competition and intergroup rivalries among non-state, militant groups. The ViNSAR data o er several improvements over previous measures. First, information is coded at the dyadic level, indicating whether or not speci c pairs of groups are involved in a rivalry. Second, rather than just coding the existence of a rivalry, the ViNSAR data provide detailed information on the rivalry, including the historical relationship between each pair of organizations, as well as behavioral manifestations of the rivalry. Such manifestations can include verbal denunciations, threats of violence, or actual violence against competing groups. Third, the dataset provides this information for all pairs of groups for the time period 1990-2015. In addition to the original data collected and compiled by the project, the dataset includes a number of unique actor identi ers, which allow researchers to readily combine the data with other existing datasets on militant group behavior and armed con ict dynamics. These identi ers also allow researchers to subset their analysis on speci c actor types, such as terrorist organizations or insurgent groups. Key Variables Included in Manuscript Rivalry: This is the main variable, coded 0 if no rivalry is observed for the dyad-year, and 1 if a rivalry is observed for the dyad-year. A rivalry is present if there are verbal denouncements or threats between the groups in the dyad, or if there is violence between them. A dyad is not coded for a rivalry if the groups simply co-exist in similar geographic or ideological space, theoretically competing for resources. Rivalry is observed contestation, verbal or physical.

International Interactions, 2018

ABSTRACT How does branding militant groups as “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” (FTOs) affect the... more ABSTRACT How does branding militant groups as “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” (FTOs) affect them? Beyond its obvious policy importance, this question speaks to debates about counterterrorism, terrorism financing, and organizational dynamics of subnational violence. This article analyzes FTO designation, a key policy used by the U.S. government since 1997 to impose costs on foreign terrorist groups and those who might support them. Contrary to arguments that sanctions are ineffective and that terrorism is too “cheap” to be affected, it is argued that designation should weaken terrorist groups, reducing their attacks over time. However, the effect is probably conditional. FTO designation should be especially effective against groups operating in U.S.-aligned countries, given the importance of international cooperation in counterterrorism. Global quantitative analyses suggest that FTOs operating in U.S.-aligned countries carry out fewer attacks over time than other groups, taking many other factors into consideration.

Comparative Political Studies, 2016

What explains the emergence of vigilante organizations? Throughout the world, vigilantes emerge t... more What explains the emergence of vigilante organizations? Throughout the world, vigilantes emerge to illegally punish perceived criminals, often leading to serious consequences. However, the literature presents partial and conflicting explanations for this phenomenon. This article argues that local economic inequality creates a situation ripe for vigilante organizations. Inequality creates demand for vigilantism because poorer citizens feel relatively deprived of security compared with wealthier neighbors who have advantages regarding private and public security. In addition, inequality suggests a patron-and-worker distribution of labor, and this is ideal for organizing a particular type of group, the patron-funded vigilante group. Empirical tests use original data on the 2013 wave of Mexican vigilante organizations, present in 13 of Mexico’s 32 federal entities. Municipal-level income inequality is robustly associated with organized vigilantism. Less support is found for competing ex...

Spanish Abstract: ?Por que algunos grupos terroristas perduran mas que otros? ?Que nos revela est... more Spanish Abstract: ?Por que algunos grupos terroristas perduran mas que otros? ?Que nos revela esta longevidad sobre la eficacia de las organizaciones terroristas? Este articulo examina, en primer lugar, por que la supervivencia organizativa puede considerarse un factor de eficacia organizativa. En segundo lugar, se revisa la literatura sobre la longevidad de los grupos terroristas –incluyendo el examen sistematico de diez estudios cuantitativos sobre este tema. El analisis muestra que unos pocos factores estan asociados a la longevidad recurrentemente –entre ellos, el tamano del grupo y la participacion en alianzas de grupos terroristas. En tercer lugar, y dado el interes teorico por las relaciones interorganizativas, se toman en consideracion argumentos para explicar por que las alianzas de grupos terroristas, y tambien la competencia entre grupos, probablemente contribuyen a la longevidad del grupo. Por ultimo, se ofrecen sugerencias para avanzar en la investigacion sobre esta tem...

Terrorism and Political Violence

Terrorism research increased markedly after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 (9/11). How has researc... more Terrorism research increased markedly after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 (9/11). How has research on this subject changed in the past 20 years? I examine data on more than 6,000 academic articles on terrorism between 1970 and 2019, and the more than 1,500 authors of multiple articles. This information comes from every article in the Web of Science database with "terrorism" or "terrorist" in the title. Several primary findings emerge. (1) The volume of terrorism research surged to record highs after 9/11, and has not decreased since. (2) Psychologists became the most numerous terrorism researchers after 9/11, displacing political scientists for about 10 years. Research on health or medical aspects of terrorism jumped after 9/11. (3) The proportion of female scholars increased substantially after 9/11, outpacing the rise in academia generally. This is in part because scholars new to the field were often from disciplines with relatively high percentages of women, such as psychology. (4) Terrorism scholars were mostly based in North America or Western Europe before 9/11, but the number of countries with scholars publishing terrorism research expanded considerably after 2001. Overall, terrorism research has developed in many ways over the decades, but 9/11 led to fundamental changes.

Terrorism and Political Violence, Sep 6, 2017

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

Terrorism and Political Violence , 2024

International Studies Review

Which countries are likely to be subjects of research in the study of armed conflict? Evidence fr... more Which countries are likely to be subjects of research in the study of armed conflict? Evidence from other fields suggests that research often focuses disproportionately on the West, but it is unclear to what extent this is true in conflict studies. We suggest that a baseline explanation of research focus is each country’s conflict experience, and we present two additional hypotheses: Western bias and research feasibility. Empirically, we count countries in the abstracts of five prominent conflict or security journals, 1990–2015. We also manually count single-country case studies. Western countries, measured by U.N. voting or geographic location, appear more than non-Western countries, even after considering conflict, wealth, and other factors. There is less support for the research feasibility argument, measured by each country’s official languages and democracy. We find French- and Spanish-language countries less likely to appear in the literature. We conclude with a discussion of ...

The Power of Global Performance Indicators

Latin American Politics and Society, 2020

The Oxford Handbook of Terrorism, 2019

When Does Terrorism Work?, 2018

Perspectives on terrorism, 2018

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2018

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2017

Defence and Peace Economics, 2021

International Interactions, 2018

Comparative Political Studies, 2016

Terrorism and Political Violence

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

Terrorist group rivalries and alliances have important consequences, but the sources of these rel... more Terrorist group rivalries and alliances have important consequences, but the sources of these relationships are debated. This paper offers a side-by-side examination of correlates of terrorist rivalries and alliances. Global analyses of hundreds of terrorist groups find violent rivalry is associated with drug trafficking, state sponsorship, ethnic motivation, and operating in a civil conflict country. Alliances are associated with territorial control, intermediate membership size, and religious motivation. The idea that alliances are an indicator of weakness does not find much support. When relationships are disaggregated into theoretically-relevant categories (inter-field and intra-field rivalries, and domestic and international alliances), further distinctions appear.