3.0T3 Training Materials: Exercise "Scenario selection" (original) (raw)
Exercise: "Scenario selection"
In the videos above, you have learned how to change the scenarios in the worksheet called “SCENARIOS selection” of the Open Source calculator, and then how to look for the results in the yellow worksheets. You have also learned that the different scenario selections can affect each other in synergic and contradictory directions, so it is worth reflecting on what are the possible impacts of each scenario choice, when you are making your favorite scenario selections.
In this exercise, we will further explore the Afforestation scenario. Below you will find the respective table in the “SCENARIOS selection” worksheet:
The Open-Source calculator has selected as a default for the Afforestation scenario, the BonnChallenge option. The BonnChallenge follows the formal pledges of around 60 countries in the world to turn degraded and deforested landscapes into restoration by 2020. This means that the results in the LAND worksheet will already include some type of afforestation in them when this scenario is selected, which follow the pledges of the Bonn Challenge. Let us compare below the land cover results, between the NoAffor and the Bonn Challenge scenario, respectively.
The first thing to notice in the comparison above is that there is some amount of new forest being created in both scenarios, increasing in 2010 and staying constant in a maximum of 12 million ha until 2050. Additionally, the BonnChallenge scenario increases this amount up to 25 million ha, and this is done in an important increase from 2000 to 2020, followed by a more subtle increase up to 2040.
What are the changes in the other types of land cover that you see? What do you think explains these changes? Write a paragraph with your hypotheses, to compare as you progress reading the documentation of the calculator, especially on how land is calculated.