Robert Šakić Trogrlić | Heriot-Watt University (original) (raw)

Papers by Robert Šakić Trogrlić

Natural Hazards

The occurrence and intensity of some natural hazards (e.g. hydro-meteorological) increase due to ... more The occurrence and intensity of some natural hazards (e.g. hydro-meteorological) increase due to climate change, with growing exposure and socio-economic vulnerability, leading to mounting risks. In response, Disaster Risk Reduction policy and practice emphasize people-centred Early Warning Systems (EWS). Global policies stress the need for including local knowledge and increasing the literature on integrating local and scientific knowledge for EWS. In this paper, we present a review to understand and outline how local and scientific knowledge integration is framed in EWS, namely: (1) existing integration approaches, (2) where in the EWS integration happens, (3) outcomes, (4) challenges, and (5) enablers. The objective is to critically evaluate integration and highlight critical questions about assumptions, goals, outcomes, and processes. In particular, we unpack the impact of power and knowledges as plural. We find a spectrum of integration between knowledges in EWS, mainly with di...

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2018

&lt;p&gt;Single natural hazards, multi-hazards, and anthropogenic processes all c... more &lt;p&gt;Single natural hazards, multi-hazards, and anthropogenic processes all contribute to dynamic risk due to the changing nature of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability over time. Here we discuss the development of dynamic risk scenarios for single and multi-hazards, including multi-hazard interrelationships, in the context of three urban areas, Istanbul, Kathmandu, and Nairobi, all foci of the UK GCRF funded &amp;#8220;Tomorrow&amp;#8217;s Cities&amp;#8221; Research Hub. We first do systematic overviews of multiple sources of evidence (academic and grey literature, online media, social media) to produce a profile of single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships for each urban area, from which we produce dynamic risk scenarios. Then, we further developed dynamic risk scenarios through co-production with relevant local hazard stakeholders in facilitated workshops and semi-structured interviews in Nairobi and Istanbul. The dynamic risk scenarios include multiple types of single hazards, three different hazard interrelationships (i.e., triggering, increased probability, and compound hazards) and anthropogenic processes. These dynamic risk scenarios are relevant for short-term considerations (e.g., days or weeks, such as an earthquake triggering landslides and blocking rivers) or longer-term (such as climate change influencing the hazard, or anthropogenic processes of urban growth influence the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability). Examples of challenges identified by stakeholders include governance-related issues, such as siloed approaches to hazards which are often single-hazard focused, lack of enforcement of regulations, translation of planning to implementation, centralised policy-making, needs beyond electoral cycles, lack of financial and human resources, and disconnect between scientific and policy-making communities. Other challenges stakeholders identified include a lack of existing data and research in their region on multi-hazard interrelationships, anthropogenic processes and risk, and other components that make up dynamic risk scenarios. Opportunities identified by stakeholders include increased awareness of the factors that might influence risk dynamically in their urban region and integration of these factors into existing urban regeneration project planning. As identified by local stakeholders, these scenarios have a vast array of potential benefits for disaster risk management in their cities, especially in terms of enhanced preparedness and risk-informed planning.&lt;/p&gt;

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Istanbul is a large urban area exposed to many natural hazards, ... more &amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Istanbul is a large urban area exposed to many natural hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, tsunami, flooding, and drought. In addition to the potential risk from these single hazards, their interrelationships can&amp;amp;#160; amplify overall risk, potentially overwhelming the capacity of governments, communities, and systems limits. Here, in order to investigate how multi hazards and their interrelationships are understood and considered in the decision making process in Istanbul, we have conducted two workshops and three interviews with 22 expert practitioners with a wide range of natural hazard relevant roles in Istanbul institutions.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;We focused our activities on: (i) Identifying multi-hazard interrelationships relevant for Istanbul of tomorrow and creating multi-hazard interrelationship scenarios. (ii) Understanding the usefulness of multi-hazard thinking in the context of different stakeholders, and (iii) Exploring barriers and opportunities for the integration of multi-hazard thinking into operational practice. We find in the Istanbul urban context that (i) single hazards are calculated, examined, and incorporated within urban development and planning process at a significant level, (ii) the participants&amp;amp;#8217; perception of multi-hazard is mostly focused on cascading single hazards where one triggers another, excluding increasing probability and compound hazard interrelationships, (iii) that although multi-hazard approaches are taken into account at some levels in Istanbul, the main focus is still mainly on single hazards, (iv) there is a lack of interaction amongst many&amp;amp;#160; hazard related institutions that are often single-hazard focused, thus hindering disaster risk reduction in a holistic and integrated way.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Among the multi hazard types, earthquakes induced hazards such as landslides, tsunami and floods are highlighted by the participants often. It is notable that climate change related scenarios such as heavy rainfalls and heatwaves are also mentioned during conversations. Our results show that multi-hazard scenarios have the potential to improve DRR in Istanbul as there are some studies that already address the multi hazard perspective to a certain extent and knowledge on potential multi hazards is significant among experts. However, changes in policies, legislative environment, and&amp;amp;#160; governance arrangements are needed, as well as further physical characterisation of interrelationships.&amp;amp;#160;&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;

Urban water system arounds the globe are exposed to increased pressures due to climate change, po... more Urban water system arounds the globe are exposed to increased pressures due to climate change, population growth and ageing infrastructure. Despite the present recognition of a need for change in the traditional approach, and awareness of the benefits provided by sustainable urban stormwater systems, there are rare examples of local success in regulating and implementing city wide practices. The aim of this study is to develop an implementation framework for transforming green infrastructure stormwater management strategies into real projects in Hoboken, a highly urbanized city in New Jersey affected by regular pluvial flooding. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, two green infrastructure strategies were developed: (1) Resist, Delay, Store, Discharge: A comprehensive urban water strategy and (2) Green Infrastructure Strategic Plan. 21 semi structured interviews with core urban water stakeholders were conducted and the research was organized around the previously developed ''fit for purpose'' framework. The available green infrastructure system typology was used to map the current context in Hoboken. Implementation lessons from the ''green infrastructure champion cities" across the United States were applied to Hoboken's situation. The analysis revealed that there are numerous drivers for green infrastructure in Hoboken, mainly the regulatory driver to comply with federal law and to eliminate combined sewer overflows, and the present political buy- in from the local government. However, the drivers were outweighted by the number of barriers, identified in 5 categories: (1) technical, (2) physical, (3) financial, (4) institutional and (5) legal and regulatory. Based on an innovative approach of the interaction between drivers and barriers and their combination with the best practices available, an implementation framework was developed in order to map the future steps needed for implementing a city wide green infrastructure. The framework developed described implementation as a process distinguished in three phases: initiation, uptake and standard practice. The framework proved that the implementation is a complex, dynamic, iterative, long lasting process requiring significant changes in politics, policy, regulations and tax systems. Hoboken is in the beginning of its efforts, trying to deliver first projects demonstrating the concept of green infrastructure. The individual tools to overcome each barrier and deliver a city wide green infrastructure through implementation framework were proposed and discussed, thus making it a valuable tool to use for the local decision makers. The task to be accomplished in Hoboken is complex. The conclusions of this work indicate the presence of the initial momentum and strong support for green infrastructure. Thus, by following the framework outlined, green infrastructure can become an important constituent of future stormwater management in Hoboken

In this paper, we present the views of 350 members of the Natural Hazards and Earth System Scienc... more In this paper, we present the views of 350 members of the Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) readership concerning (i) the key challenges in natural hazard sciences and (ii) the broad step changes necessary in the natural hazard research to help facilitate the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. We have analysed the data quantitatively and qualitatively, and note that while the most common knowledge gaps are felt to be around components of knowledge about risk drivers, the step changes that the community felt were necessary related more to issues of interdisciplinary working and stakeholder engagement. challenges in our understanding of natural hazards, (ii) suggested step changes by the natural hazard community to address natural hazards in achieving the sustainable development goals. Over time, there have been large leaps and advancements in our understanding of natural hazards and their management, facilitated, among others, by the following: • The development and enhancement of physical, statistical, and numerical modelling of different natural hazards enable us to understand the processes behind the generation and propagation of natural hazards and characterisation of different natural hazards (OECD, 2012; Hirabayashi et al., 2013; Strauch et al., 2019). • Increasing computational power allows for better, faster, and more complex modelling based on the higher spatial and temporal resolution of data (Ujjwal et al., 2019). • Access to new and innovative data sources and data analysis techniques, such as remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) (

Understanding Disaster Risk, 2021

Abstract The chapter brings new insights into social vulnerability in the context of drought, by ... more Abstract The chapter brings new insights into social vulnerability in the context of drought, by focusing on subsistence farming communities in Nsanje, Malawi. The research employs an index study with quantitative and qualitative factors and a community co-created weighting scheme to explore social vulnerability to droughts. Results reveal the drivers of vulnerability in Nsanje and draw conclusions regarding the importance of spate-irrigated agriculture in the region. Through comparisons with reported food history, the study concludes that drought vulnerability must be considered alongside vulnerability to flooding as a holistic multihazard assessment of the hydrohazard cycle.

&lt;p&gt;Istanbul is a major global urban centre. With city expansion expected to... more &lt;p&gt;Istanbul is a major global urban centre. With city expansion expected to continue over the next few decades there is a real opportunity for urban growth that incorporates disaster risk reduction (DRR). But in order to develop DRR inclusive urban development strategies we need to understand the breadth of hazards that can affect the city and their potential interactions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To create a single hazard overview for the city we searched through peer-reviewed literature, reports, government websites and international disaster databases for hazard occurrences. Of the 34 natural hazards in our global hazard table encompassing five major hazard groups (geophysical, shallow process, meteorological, hydrological, climatological and extraterrestrial), we found 27 of these had occurred or had the potential to occur in Istanbul. Notable absences were snow avalanches, glacial outburst floods and direct volcanic hazards. However, ash dispersal models show that ash from volcanic eruptions in the Mediterranean can affect the city.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Additionally, we present an interaction matrix for hazards relevant to the city that shows how one hazard may trigger or increase the probability of another. We adapted the global hazard interaction matrix of Gill and Malamud (2014) by removing hazards that were not relevant to Istanbul and supplementing it with specific examples that have occurred in the city. We found 85 such interactions that reveal the potential for interacting chains of natural hazards.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We discuss how multi-hazard scenarios, developed through expert stakeholder engagement and based on the hazard interaction matrix, are an effective way to explore and communicate the dynamic variability of exposure, vulnerability and therefore, multi-hazard risk.&lt;/p&gt;

STRESZCZENIE SZCZEPIONKA PRZECIW COVID-19-TECHNICZNE ASPEKTY WYKONANIA SZCZEPIENIA Wprowadzenie. ... more STRESZCZENIE SZCZEPIONKA PRZECIW COVID-19-TECHNICZNE ASPEKTY WYKONANIA SZCZEPIENIA Wprowadzenie. Na całym świecie rozpoczęła się walka z wirusem SARS-CoV-2 wywołującym COVID-19. Możliwe jest to dzięki bardzo szybkiemu opracowaniu i zbadaniu preparatów leczniczych o tak wysokiej skuteczności (94-95%), które mogą być podawane dorosłym pacjentom w celu masowego uodpornienia. Wyzwaniem pozostaje wyprodukowanie i dostarczenie tak ogromnej liczby szczepionek, natomiast niewątpliwie ważnym aspektem jest bezpieczne i zgodne z zasadami podanie preparatów leczniczych. Osobami aktualnie uprawnionymi do podawania szczepionek przeciw COVID-19 są lekarze, felczerzy, pielęgniarki, położne, ratownicy medyczni i higienistki szkolne. Natomiast pojawia się wiele sprzecznych informacji jak podawać szczepionkę przeciw COVID-19? Ujmować skórę w fałd czy rozciągać? Aspirować czy nie? Podsumowanie. Pielęgniarki od lat wykonują szczepienia ochronne, mając odpowiednie wykształcenie i doświadczenie w tej kwestii. Aktualnie dostępne szczepionki przeciw COVID-19 podawane są domięśniowo w mięsień naramienny. Zalecenia rekomendują podanie szczepionki w wyznaczone miejsce pod kątem 90 stopni jednocześnie rozciągając skórę palcem wskazującym i kciukiem, bez aspiracji po wkłuciu. Niniejszy artykuł przedstawia podstawowe informacje dotyczące szczepionki oraz opracowany przez autorów algorytm podania szczepionki przeciw COVID-19. Słowa kluczowe: koronawirus, szczepienie, pielęgniarka ABSTRACT COVID-19 VACCINE-TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF VACCINATION Introduction. All over the world the fi ght against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, has already begun. Very quick development and testing of medicinal preparations with such a high effi ciency (94-95%), which can be administered to adult patients for mass immunization, makes this fi ght possible. The production and delivery of a huge number of vaccines remains a challenge, but an undoubtedly important aspect is the safe and compliant administration of medicinal preparations. People currently authorized to administer COVID-19 vaccines are doctors, paramedics, nurses, midwives, and school hygienists. However, there is a lot of confl icting information on how to administer the COVID-19 vaccine. Should the skin be folded or stretched? To aspire or not? Conclusion. Nurses have administered vaccination since many years, having proper education and experience. Nowadays available vaccines against COVID-19 are administered intramuscularly into the deltoid muscle. The recommendations say that administering of the vaccine must be performed with 90 degrees to the surface of the skin simultaneously stretching the skin with index fi nger and thumb, without aspiration after injection. This article presents basic information about the vaccine and the algorithm for administering the COVID-19 vaccine developed by the authors.

U clanku je izvrsena kompleksna analiza ponasanja vodnih resursa krskog izvora Omble. Izvor Omble... more U clanku je izvrsena kompleksna analiza ponasanja vodnih resursa krskog izvora Omble. Izvor Omble predstavlja tipicni priobalni krski izvor. Smjesten je u blizini Grada Dubrovnika kojeg pouzdano snabdijeva kvalitetnom pitkom vodom. Na povrsinu izlazi na nadmorskoj visini od 2, 5 m n.m. te se njegove vode prakticno odmah preko preljeva ulijevaju u Jadransko more. Minimalni protok je procijenjen na iznos od 4, 30 m3 s-1, dok je maksimalni protok procijenjen na 117 m3 s-1. S obzirom na velicinu sliva, obilne i intenzivne oborine koje se na njemu javljaju, kao i njegov krski karakter, zakljuceno je da se radi o izvoru s ogranicenim maksimalnim kapacitetom istjecanja. Sto se minimalnih protoka tice, moguce je zakljuciti da se prihranjuje iz stabilnog i velikog krskog vodonosnika. Srednji protok u prirodnom stanju u razdoblju opažanja od 1968. do 1980. iznosio je 28, 01 m3 s-1. Od 1981. do 2012. (bez 1991.-1992.), dakle u razdoblju kada je korito rijeke Trebisnjice koja protjece kroz njeg...

Za tri meteoroloske postaje u Hrvatskoj (Zagreb-Gric, Zavižan i Dubrovnik) za razdoblje 1999.-201... more Za tri meteoroloske postaje u Hrvatskoj (Zagreb-Gric, Zavižan i Dubrovnik) za razdoblje 1999.-2011. izracunate su srednje dnevne temperature zraka na standardnoj visini od 2 m od tla koristenjem dvaju izraza. Prvim izrazom određuju se tocne srednje dnevne temperature T0 usrednjivanjem 24 terminske satne temperature tijekom kalendarskog dana. Drugi izraz, koji se službeno koristi u Hrvatskoj, ali i u brojnim drugim zemljama, racuna srednju dnevnu temperaturu T1 kao prosjek od temperatura izmjerenih u 7 sati, 14 sati i 21 sat s tim da se ovaj posljednji termin uzima u proracun dva puta pa se njihova suma dijeli s cetiri. U radu su prikazane razlike (T0-T1) izracunatih dnevnih, mjesecnih i godisnjih temperatura dobivene primjenom spomenute dvije formule. Najvece se razlike javljaju kod srednjih dnevnih temperatura. Razlike u srednjim mjesecnim vrijednostima su znatno manje dok se godisnje razlike jos manje. Za postaju Zagreb-Gric srednje godisnje temperature T0 uvijek su niže od onih k...

At three meteorological stations in Croatia (Zagreb-Grič, Zavižan and Dubrovnik), mean daily air ... more At three meteorological stations in Croatia (Zagreb-Grič, Zavižan and Dubrovnik), mean daily air temperatures for the period from 1999 to 2011 at the standard height of 2 m from the ground were calculated by applying two formulas. The first formula is used for determining accurate mean daily temperature T0 by taking the average of the 24-period hourly temperature during a calendar day. The second formula, which is officially used in Croatia (as well as numerous other countries), is used for calculating mean daily temperature T1 as the average of temperatures measured in 7 hours, 14 hours and 21 hours, whereby the last period is used in calculation twice and therefore this sum is divided by four. The paper presents the differences (ΔT=T0-T1) in calculated daily, monthly and annual temperatures obtained by applying these two formulas. The largest differences occur in mean daily temperatures, ranging from -2.35 oC (meaning T0 < T1) to +3.56 oC (meaning T0 > T1). The differences i...

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021

Water, 2018

Rivers represent an essential pathway for waterborne transport, and therefore estuaries are criti... more Rivers represent an essential pathway for waterborne transport, and therefore estuaries are critical coastal areas for a pollution hazard that might lead to eutrophication and general water quality deterioration. When addressing these problems, the decision makers and coastal managers often need additional skills and specialists, so they engage consultants in developing models and providing potential solutions. Different stakeholders’ interests present a challenge in the implementation process of proposed solutions. Nevertheless, if the relevant institutions were presented with a screening tool, enabling them with a certain level of solution ownership, potentially more involvement would occur. There are numerous intertwined physical processes present in the estuary ecosystem, including river discharge, tidal forces, wind-induced stress and water density variations. This research utilizes an analytical model based on ensemble averaging and near-field approximation of the advective-di...

Geoscience Communication Discussions, 2019

This article presents a 'Pressure Cooker' approach for building interdisciplinary risk communicat... more This article presents a 'Pressure Cooker' approach for building interdisciplinary risk communication capacity in young researchers and professionals through an intensive 24-hour workshop. The event successfully brought together 35 participants from around the world to work on real-life environmental hazard/risk communication challenges for two areas in Mexico. Participants worked in interdisciplinary teams, following a three-step iterative process, with support from mentors and a range of specialists to develop risk communication outputs. Feedback surveys indicate that the workshop met its goal of improving participants' knowledge of risk communication and interdisciplinary working. The workshop resulted in an interdisciplinary community of researchers and practitioners, including organisers, participants and supporting specialists, still active after the event. It is recommended that such interdisciplinary workshops are used to build capacity to tackle complex challenges, such as risk communication, but require further testing. Insights into the design and implementation of such interdisciplinary workshops are given (e.g. team design, use of preparatory materials, and engagement of specialists and local stakeholders are presented), including critiques of challenges raised by the workshop participants. Guidance is provided to those interested in applying a Pressure Cooker approach and further adaptations of the approach are welcomed. 1. Introduction Risk communication for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is inherently interdisciplinary, requiring integration between social and environmental sciences, communication design, engineering and media, to name but a few. Not only does effective risk communication require interdisciplinary working, but it must also function across sectors, including government, industry, and academia, in addition to being based on a pragmatic understanding of end users. The challenges of interdisciplinary communication are especially pressing in the fields of risk and uncertainty (Klinke and Renn, 2012, 2014; Pappenberger et al., 2013), and have produced a wide, but fragmented body of literature on how communications are understood by the public

Water, 2018

The Rebuild by Design (RBD) competition was launched after the devastating impact of Hurricane Sa... more The Rebuild by Design (RBD) competition was launched after the devastating impact of Hurricane Sandy, and the winning designs have put a significant emphasis on green infrastructure (GI) as a means of achieving flood resilience in urban areas. Previous research in the field of urban stormwater management indicates that widespread implementation of GI remains a challenge, largely due to a lack of understanding of the required governance approaches. Therefore, by using a case study of Hoboken, for which the winning design was developed, this paper explores whether RBD provides governance structures and processes needed for the uptake of GI. Semi-structured interviews and desk study provided the data for an analysis of the presence of factors for supporting the transformative governance needed to facilitate the uptake of innovative solutions. Results indicate that RBD brought a greater change in terms of governance processes when compared to governance structures. In Hoboken, RBD created a narrative for long-term change, put GI as a preferred solution for tackling multiple challenges, and strengthened the local political buy-in. However, pitfalls were observed, such as limited funding provision, lack of regulatory compliance, economic justification and large investments required from public and private parties. The absence of these factors can hinder the overall uptake of the GI solution. Even though the design competition presents a novel approach to the field of resilience development, further steps should be made in understanding how the RBD methodology can be adjusted to provide results of equal quality in different settings (e.g., less developed regions, different governance contexts).

Natural Hazards

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2018

Understanding Disaster Risk, 2021

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021

Water, 2018

Geoscience Communication Discussions, 2019

Water, 2018