Arjan Lejour - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Arjan Lejour

Social Science Research Network, Oct 14, 2014

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system ... more All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means-electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise-without the prior permission of CEPS.

Research and development (R&D) raises not only the own technology levels, but also that in other ... more Research and development (R&D) raises not only the own technology levels, but also that in other sectors and abroad. We examine the trade-related diffusion of R&D in three steps. First, using OECD and UNESCO data we provide an overview of global R&D expenditures. Second, we estimate the relation between sectoral R&D expenditures and growth. Finally, these R&D linkages are incorporated in WorldScan: a dynamic applied general equilibrium model for the world economy. We simulate trade liberalisation and analyse the effects on GDP in different regions. We find that the GDP effects of trade liberalisation are magnified considerably for some regions-notably Japan and SouthEast Asia-where for others-for example China and Sub-Saharan Africa-the GDP effects are not blown up at all. These findings can be traced back to changing specialization patterns and changing import patterns. A region either specialises in R&D-intensive sectors or imports R&D-intensive goods. Some regions import the knowledge-intensive goods from knowledge-poor regions. Such a 'double unfortunate' trade and production pattern explains the results for Sub-Saharan Africa and China.

Other publications TiSEM, 2020

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International trade in services is hampered by non-tariff barriers that originate from national r... more International trade in services is hampered by non-tariff barriers that originate from national regulations. Not only the level of regulation in home or export country matters, but also the inter-country differences in regulation for service markets. Regulatory measures tend to affect fixed costs rather than variable costs. The fact that regulations often differ by market, means that the fixed costs of complying with regulations in an export market are in fact sunk marketentry costs. Our theoretical model demonstrates that policy heterogeneity between countries has a negative impact on bilateral service trade. We quantify bilateral policy variety through a new indicator that is applied in a gravity model for explaining service trade among EU countries. The empirical results support our theoretical prediction: the degree of regulatory heterogeneity is inversely related to the level of bilateral service trade. The results are applied to simulate the possible impacts of recent EU proposals for the services market. We find that making more use of mutual recognition could increase bilateral trade in commercial services among EU countries by 30% to 60%.

WorldScan is a flexible model CPB has developed to analyse long-term issues in the world economy ... more WorldScan is a flexible model CPB has developed to analyse long-term issues in the world economy such as globalization, ageing, the depletion of energy sources and the emission of greenhouse gasses. WorldScan is also used to perform policy analysison trade and environmental policies, for example. Economic models are especially valuable if they are used as a sort of discussion partner. A model is an organising device, combining theoretical insights with empirical evidence. It is the combination of several elements that makes a model so instructive for users, who appreciate the richness of the interactions within the model. At the same time, the model should not be a rigid system, but open to the ideas and the needs of the users. New policy problems may require an emphasis on new mechanisms. Thus, in order to be able to act as a good discussion partner, the model should be flexible, just like the mind of an economist should be open. This is especially true if issues at hand are surrounded by huge uncertainties, and sensitivity analyses are required to separate the sensible from the nonsensical. WorldScan has a history of about a decade. The first version of the model was built by Ben Geurts and Hans Timmer, and was used for the scenario study "Scanning the Future" (CPB, 1992). After the first version, Arjen Gielen, Paul Tang, Arjan Lejour, and Richard Nahuis joined the WorldScan team. Since then many new versions of the model have appeared, and many applications have been analysedoften in collaboration with international institutes such as the OECD, EU and IPCC. The team of researchers developed the model further, either by enlarging it or by simplifying it. From the beginning, Hans Timmer guided the development of the model, his skills and enthusiasm inspiring the research team. To structure the many versions of WorldScan, CPB decided to develop a core version: a starting point for all other versions. This publication is the result of this effort. The WorldScan team currently consists of Nico van Leeuwen, Arjan Lejour, Ton Manders, Guido van Steen, Hans Timmer, and Gerard Verweij. Johannes Bollen of RIVM also makes important contributions to the model and uses it intensively. The whole team contributed to this publication. Arjan Lejour has written a large part of the text.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1991

I l. Introduclion ln a world where markets become internationally more integrated the social ques... more I l. Introduclion ln a world where markets become internationally more integrated the social question will be an important issue. Now this question is at stake in the European Community for "1992". The integration of capital and labour markets may intensify capital and labour flows within the EC. The size of these fluws is partly determined by the level of social insurance. Because migration influences the financing and expenditure part of the social insurance system, policymakers have to take into account migration behaviour in decision making on social insurance. In recent years a lot of research has been done on the consequences of goods and capital flows on indirect and capital tax rates. Often one concludes that tax competition between the member states, which pushes the tax rates down. is likely W uccur. It is important tu analyse if this is also likely to happen with the level of social insurance. Another and related issue is whether centralisation of decision-making processes can be agreed upon to improve the welfare of all countries concerned. Is there a need for a European federal transfer structure or could downwazd pressures on the system be corrected by coordinating the decisions between the countries? We focus the attention on the consequences fur labour mobility to the level of social insurance systems from a public choice approach. Unlike most earlier models of social welfare, see for example Pauly (1973) and Brown and Oates (1987), both workers and beneficiaries are assumed to have political intluence in determining the level of social insurance.' A second deviation from thtse models is that we do not base migratiun only on differences in sucial insurance systems. According to the migration literature, migration decisions are mainly determined by guod labour opportunities and wage level in the migration country, unemployment rate in the home country and the amuun[ of intircmation about the migratiun country. Therefore we consider two countries with a different level of social insurance and a different wage rate. Both the level of social insurance and the wage rate are affected by the size of the migration flow. These effects depend on the characteristics of the migrants. We diseriminate between people who have good opportunites on the labour market and people who have less opportunities (further on we lahel these groups as low-risk and high-risk, respectively, where risks refer to the opportunities on the latwur market). In case high-risks are mobile our results corresponds closely 'Actually, in the mudel of Brown and Oates the median voter is decisive in determining the size of the social welfare system. However, as the beneficiaries are assumed to be in the minority, they have no effective say in the decision-making process.

Journal of Housing Economics, Sep 1, 2018

This paper has two aims. First of all, it presents CPB’s contribution of bilateral services trade... more This paper has two aims. First of all, it presents CPB’s contribution of bilateral services trade data to version 7 of the GTAP database (Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008). Among others, it uses reliability indices to determine the quality of the data reported by exporting and importing countries, using the Gehlhar (1996) method. Second, this paper discusses briefly alternative methods to make a choice between two available reporting data for the same bilateral flow. In section 2 we present an overview of the available Bilateral Services Trade data for the GTAP-7 database. As outlined in Van Leeuwen and Lejour, 2006 we use the method of Gehlhar (1996) to check the reliability of the reporting country if there are two reporting observations available for the same bilateral flow. This is described in section 3. In section 4 we present the other decisions: if we only have one observation for a certain flow, we use this observation, and in case there is no flow at all, we have to construct ...

In services the activities of foreign affiliates often exceed the value of cross-border trade. A ... more In services the activities of foreign affiliates often exceed the value of cross-border trade. A complete analysis of services liberalisation therefore requires the modelling of FDI. This paper presents the modelling of FDI in our CGE model WorldScan after having discussed the scarce literature. Then we apply the model to assess the proposals of the European Commission to open up services markets. FDI in services could increase by 20% to 35%. However, the role of foreign capital in providing services is until now limited. Our assessment suggests that GDP in Europe could increase up to 0.3%. If foreign capital also increases overall productivity in services the effects could be substantially higher.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

Traditional tax havens and conduit countries have different economic and tax characteristics. Thi... more Traditional tax havens and conduit countries have different economic and tax characteristics. This paper shows that conduit countries are larger economies, have higher statutory and effective tax rates, have more bilateral treaties and are more transparent. Because of these characteristics, other countries apply lower withholding taxes on income flows to conduit countries compared to tax havens and do not apply CFC-rules on profit income generated in conduit countries. I assess quantitatively the role of tax havens and conduit countries in international corporate tax avoidance taking account of the literature on corporate tax revenue losses, treaty shopping and phantom investment. I allocate the global tax revenues losses due to profit shifting and treaty shopping to individual countries, using GDP, tax rates, FDI positions and FDI income. Traditional tax havens are only responsible for a small part of corporate tax avoidance. Conduit countries are involved in a much larger share, i...

Drie jaar geleden riepen Arjan Lejour en Maarten van 't Riet op om de Nederlandse aanpak van ... more Drie jaar geleden riepen Arjan Lejour en Maarten van 't Riet op om de Nederlandse aanpak van belastingontwijking door multinationals via Nederland te evalueren aan de hand van de data. Het kabinet-Rutte III had in februari 2018 haar strategie tegen deze vorm van belastingontwijking aangekondigd. Wat is daar inmiddels van terecht gekomen

Other publications TiSEM, Dec 19, 2019

This article analyses the recent rulings from the European Court of Justice in two Danish cases a... more This article analyses the recent rulings from the European Court of Justice in two Danish cases and examines their possible impact on international tax avoidance. These rulings regard limitations of tax benefits related to cross-border dividends and interest payments resulting from the interposition of holding companies in the EU. We conclude that from a legal perspective, the rulings demonstrate the alignment of international tax policies to combat tax avoidance between the EU and the OECD. This alignment is historical in international tax law as it encompasses a record-high number of states and because it introduces a minimum standard of tools to combat tax treaty abuse directly into national state legislation. This could be the end for certain tax-motivated structures of international companies. From a quantitative perspective, the conclusion is that the rulings limit the potential for Multinational Enterprises to lower their tax burden considerably. The worldwide average potential gain from treaty shopping is reduced by 1.1 percentage points from 5.6% to 4.5% when the EU member states cannot be used on treaty shopping routes. With more countries, and treaties, involved, the combat against tax avoidance is more effective. However, the fact that some countries have a standard withholding tax rate of zero percent hampers the combat. If a prohibitive penalty is applied on indirect routes to all partner countries, the policy is much more effective. The gains from treaty shopping all but disappear in such a setting.

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), Mar 1, 2022

This paper combines detailed administrative records on the universe of the Dutch population with ... more This paper combines detailed administrative records on the universe of the Dutch population with national accounts aggregates to provide a thorough description of income inequality before and after taxation and government spending. Accounting for domestic and foreign retained earnings has a substantial impact on inequality, raising the top 10% share of pre-tax national income from 29% to 31%. Overall, the tax system is regressive due to high consumption taxes and a low tax burden on capital income. The entire reduction in inequality-the top 10% income share falls to 26%-comes from government spending that is targeted at the bottom of the distribution.

World Tax Journal: WTJ, Apr 2, 2020

Nederland heeft een van de grootste voorraden aan inkomende en uitstaande buitenlandse directe in... more Nederland heeft een van de grootste voorraden aan inkomende en uitstaande buitenlandse directe investeringen ter wereld. Deze staan vooral op de balans van bijzondere financiele instellingen. Over 2016 rapporteert De Nederlandse Bank (DNB) een uitgaande stroom van 132 miljard euro aan dividenden uit kapitaaldeelnemingen, 16 miljard euro aan rente binnen concernverband en 36 miljard euro aan diensten (vooral royalty’s). Dit zijn respectievelijk vergoedingen voor eigen vermogen (dividenden), vreemd vermogen (rente) en eigendomsrechten (royalty’s).

Tax by Design for the Netherlands, 2021

Home ownership is subsidized by the Dutch tax system compared with other assets. Due to falling i... more Home ownership is subsidized by the Dutch tax system compared with other assets. Due to falling interest rates in recent decades, older home owners, who have (largely) repaid their mortgage loan, have benefited relatively more from the favourable tax treatment of owner-occupied housing compared with younger home owners, because for the latter the mortgage interest deductibility is relatively more important than the taxation of home equity (via the taxation of imputed rent). The subsidy on owner-occupied housing results in welfare losses because it stimulates excessive housing consumption, distorts financing decisions, and puts pressure on the housing market and spatial planning. In addition, the subsidy—in combination with mandatory pension savings—leads to excessive saving by many households and unnecessary restrictions on consumption in earlier phases of the lifecycle. For these reasons, the subsidy on owner-occupied housing should be eliminated under a uniform tax treatment of al...

This paper presents two scenarios simulated with the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan.... more This paper presents two scenarios simulated with the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan. The scenarios are constructed to study the effects of globalization on environment quality and environmental policies. WorldScan quantifies the economic content of the scenarios and the volume growth of energy and emissions between 1995 and 2020. It shows that trade as such does not affect the volume of emissions except for technology spillovers. However, trade liberalization affects significantly the carbon leakage of implementing environmental policies in the Annex-1 regions to the non Annex-1 regions