Carl Conetta - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Carl Conetta

Bulletin of the atomic scientists, Mar 1, 1998

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jul 7, 2022

World Policy Journal, Jun 1, 2006

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

Some say that turning to diplomacy in the face of nuclear threats will prompt a rash of nuclear p... more Some say that turning to diplomacy in the face of nuclear threats will prompt a rash of nuclear proliferation and coercion. They’re wrong. This short article explains why the outcome of the Ukraine war will have little bearing on nations’ pursuit of nuclear weapons and little effect on the incidence of nuclear coercion. While nuclear coercion is in some ways analogous to common blackmail, there are important differences. Common “blackmail” is a relatively low-cost, low-visibility, low-risk endeavor. Nuclear coercion is none of the these things. And this limits the practice. Also, the high cost of acquiring, holding, and using nuclear weapons will always impede nuclear acquisition. Conversely, nations perceiving a critical threat will always seek more powerful means of deterrence and defense, regardless of the Ukraine war outcome.

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

Western brinkmanship in Ukraine depends on denying there is a brink. T hat's a mistake. How to as... more Western brinkmanship in Ukraine depends on denying there is a brink. T hat's a mistake. How to assess the risk that Moscow will use nuclear weapons to rescue some part of its "special military operation" in Ukraine? Look to nuclear capability, operational effectiveness, the value of the asset or position Moscow hopes to protect, the likely retaliation it will face or price it will pay for nuclear use, and its ability to defer that price or parry retaliation.

Policy Brief - Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

This brief article provides a well-documented and concise overview of the war’s profound global e... more This brief article provides a well-documented and concise overview of the war’s profound global effects, beginning with the combatants’ losses in lives and treasure. Beyond this it assesses the war’s impact on global trade and economy; energy and food price inflation and their effects on poverty, hunger, and mortality; the redirection of humanitarian and official development assistance; the total sum of aid to the Ukrainian war effort, and the estimated cost of postwar reconstruction and recovery. Also examined is the war’s effect on global defense spending.

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

This is an abridged version of "Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Mis... more This is an abridged version of "Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy" (which is also available here at Academia.edu.)

Both works - one in long form, the other in brief - assess Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that the probability of Russian nuclear use, although conditionally modest, is rising.

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

The probability of Russian nuclear use related to the Ukraine war is rising-but why? Neither Wash... more The probability of Russian nuclear use related to the Ukraine war is rising-but why? Neither Washington nor Brussels fully apprehend the risk.

Report tracks and assesses the evolution of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders and hawkish observers dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that the probability of Russian nuclear use, although conditionally modest, is rising as Ukraine’s armed forces push forward toward Crimea and the Russian border while also increasing their retaliatory attacks on recognized Russian territory. On its present trajectory, the crisis will soon run a risk of nuclear conflict greater than that experienced during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research - Zenodo, Jul 7, 2022

PDA Briefing Report, 2022

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is an unfolding catastrophe for Ukraine, the region, and the world. I... more The Russia-Ukraine conflict is an unfolding catastrophe for Ukraine, the region, and the world. Its deleterious effects have only begun to be felt worldwide. A negotiated end is possible and needs to be advanced without delay.

The essay looks at the policies that shaped the contention leading to war and that increased the likelihood of conflict. It looks at the effects of NATO expansion and military activism, the “color revolutions” in Ukraine, the disposition of Crimea, the rebellions in Ukraine’s east, the Minsk process, Putin’s revisionism, Russia’s security concerns, and how the USA and Europe responded to the intensifying friction between Moscow and Kyiv.

Bulletin of the atomic scientists, Mar 1, 1998

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jul 7, 2022

World Policy Journal, Jun 1, 2006

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

Some say that turning to diplomacy in the face of nuclear threats will prompt a rash of nuclear p... more Some say that turning to diplomacy in the face of nuclear threats will prompt a rash of nuclear proliferation and coercion. They’re wrong. This short article explains why the outcome of the Ukraine war will have little bearing on nations’ pursuit of nuclear weapons and little effect on the incidence of nuclear coercion. While nuclear coercion is in some ways analogous to common blackmail, there are important differences. Common “blackmail” is a relatively low-cost, low-visibility, low-risk endeavor. Nuclear coercion is none of the these things. And this limits the practice. Also, the high cost of acquiring, holding, and using nuclear weapons will always impede nuclear acquisition. Conversely, nations perceiving a critical threat will always seek more powerful means of deterrence and defense, regardless of the Ukraine war outcome.

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

Western brinkmanship in Ukraine depends on denying there is a brink. T hat's a mistake. How to as... more Western brinkmanship in Ukraine depends on denying there is a brink. T hat's a mistake. How to assess the risk that Moscow will use nuclear weapons to rescue some part of its "special military operation" in Ukraine? Look to nuclear capability, operational effectiveness, the value of the asset or position Moscow hopes to protect, the likely retaliation it will face or price it will pay for nuclear use, and its ability to defer that price or parry retaliation.

Policy Brief - Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

This brief article provides a well-documented and concise overview of the war’s profound global e... more This brief article provides a well-documented and concise overview of the war’s profound global effects, beginning with the combatants’ losses in lives and treasure. Beyond this it assesses the war’s impact on global trade and economy; energy and food price inflation and their effects on poverty, hunger, and mortality; the redirection of humanitarian and official development assistance; the total sum of aid to the Ukrainian war effort, and the estimated cost of postwar reconstruction and recovery. Also examined is the war’s effect on global defense spending.

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

This is an abridged version of "Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Mis... more This is an abridged version of "Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy" (which is also available here at Academia.edu.)

Both works - one in long form, the other in brief - assess Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that the probability of Russian nuclear use, although conditionally modest, is rising.

Project on Defense Alternatives, 2023

The probability of Russian nuclear use related to the Ukraine war is rising-but why? Neither Wash... more The probability of Russian nuclear use related to the Ukraine war is rising-but why? Neither Washington nor Brussels fully apprehend the risk.

Report tracks and assesses the evolution of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders and hawkish observers dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that the probability of Russian nuclear use, although conditionally modest, is rising as Ukraine’s armed forces push forward toward Crimea and the Russian border while also increasing their retaliatory attacks on recognized Russian territory. On its present trajectory, the crisis will soon run a risk of nuclear conflict greater than that experienced during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research - Zenodo, Jul 7, 2022

PDA Briefing Report, 2022

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is an unfolding catastrophe for Ukraine, the region, and the world. I... more The Russia-Ukraine conflict is an unfolding catastrophe for Ukraine, the region, and the world. Its deleterious effects have only begun to be felt worldwide. A negotiated end is possible and needs to be advanced without delay.

The essay looks at the policies that shaped the contention leading to war and that increased the likelihood of conflict. It looks at the effects of NATO expansion and military activism, the “color revolutions” in Ukraine, the disposition of Crimea, the rebellions in Ukraine’s east, the Minsk process, Putin’s revisionism, Russia’s security concerns, and how the USA and Europe responded to the intensifying friction between Moscow and Kyiv.

Text of Presentation to Einstein Forum, Berlin, 15 Nov 2005. Changes in the nature of warfare, mi... more Text of Presentation to Einstein Forum, Berlin, 15 Nov 2005. Changes in the nature of warfare, military technology, and the global strategic environment pose new challenges for arms control. The article critically examines new forms of strategic warfare, cyber-war, so-called “precision” conventional warfare, global conventional strike weapons, and less-lethal weaponry.

Prepared for “Economics and Security: Resourcing National Priorities,” a workshop sponsored by Wi... more Prepared for “Economics and Security: Resourcing National Priorities,” a workshop sponsored by William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, 19–21 May 2010. Full conference proceedings here: http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA530819