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Papers by Charles Komanoff

Public Power; (United States), Sep 1, 1981

Capital costs for power plants due to inflation and regulatory requirements were originally estim... more Capital costs for power plants due to inflation and regulatory requirements were originally estimated to be higher for new coal plants than for nuclear plants, but experience shows a trend that reverses the assumed ratio and gives coal the advantage. The cost of nuclear plants completed during the 1970s was higher than anticipated, although no comprehensive study has been made. A cost-data-base comparison of nuclear and coal unit costs shows a widening difference in nuclear costs from 1971 to the projected 1.5 to 1 figures for 1988. Other factors affecting costs are unit size, multiple units, architect-engineer experience, scrubbers, and geographical location. Nuclear plants also show a longer construction period. New safety and environmental regulations will add to the operating as well as the capital costs. Mr Komanoff feels the nuclear industry needs to provide empirical evidence to justify its claim that nuclear compares favorably to coal. 3 figures. (DCK)

Barrels 35 Notes 41 Master Spreadsheet 42 Downloadable Files 43 References This report was first ... more Barrels 35 Notes 41 Master Spreadsheet 42 Downloadable Files 43 References This report was first published in typescript form in January, 2002. Some of the text has been revised. The analysis of oil savings is unchanged.

Traffic ” ― an op-ed essay published this week (Jan. 20) by Reuters.

This report is one in a series that documents an analysis of the full social cost of motor-vehicl... more This report is one in a series that documents an analysis of the full social cost of motor-vehicle use in the United States. The series is entitled The Annualized Social Cost of Motor-Vehicle Use in the United States, based on 1990-1991 Data. Support for the social-cost analysis was provided by Pew Charitable Trusts, the Federal Highway Administration

ENDING THE OIL AGEA sustainable society must depend upon renewable resources, which oil cannot be... more ENDING THE OIL AGEA sustainable society must depend upon renewable resources, which oil cannot be. It must recycle nonrenewable resources, and burned oil cannot be recycled. It needs to restore the base of renewable resources — our forests, soils, cities and human minds. In this effort America needs to lead. We are in retreat. We should be capable of doing better, and I urge that you require it. In my own fifty years’experience in the environmental movement, I have seen that most of the environmental damage, and of our stealing from children, that has turned me gray has come either from the mad dash for more energy or the thoughtless ways with which we waste what we find.

This book originated during a series of discussions in February 1978 with Vince Taylor, then a se... more This book originated during a series of discussions in February 1978 with Vince Taylor, then a senior economist with Pan-Heuristics in Los Angeles and now with the Union of Concerned Scientists. Vince and I were examining nuclear capital cost data compiled by Bill Mooz of the Rand Corporation, and we were struck by the strong correlation Bill had found between capital costs and the date of construction start, even when costs were adjusted for inflation. We were dissatisfied, however, with Bill's use of the passage of time to explain increases in capital costs, and we began to ruminate over the underlying factors that, acting over time, were leading to cost increases. This led us to consider the relationships among costs, regulatory criteria, and growth of the nuclear power sector, bringing us to the sector-size hypothesis which is developed in Chapter 3 and which permeates much of the book.

Tikkun, 2007

W W W . T I K K U N . O R G J U LY / A U G U S T 2 0 0 7 A May headline in the Chicago Tribune sa... more W W W . T I K K U N . O R G J U LY / A U G U S T 2 0 0 7 A May headline in the Chicago Tribune says it all: “The First Refugees of Global Warming: Bangladesh Watches in Horror as Much of the Nation Gives Way to Sea.” Each day’s news brings more reminders of the harms that global warming is already causing to people, communities, and nature throughout the world. From Hurricane Katrina and the inundation of island nations to heat waves in Europe and drought in Australia, climate change is wreaking horrific damage. It’s going to get worse, perhaps much worse, before it gets better. According to James Hansen, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies www.giss.nasa.gov and the preeminent scientist warning the world about global warming, the Earth has already warmed one degree Fahrenheit over the past thirty years. Another degree is in the pipeline because of gases that are already in the atmosphere, and still another degree is in store because of carbon dioxide emissions that wi...

Bicycling and walking are the two major non-fuel-consuming, non-polluting forms of transportation... more Bicycling and walking are the two major non-fuel-consuming, non-polluting forms of transportation in the United States. This report examines the environmental benefits of bicycling and walking in the following chapters: (1) Executive Summary; (2) Commentary: Reversing the Marginalization of Human-Powered Transport; (3) Discussion of Findings Presented in the Tables; (4) Other Environmental Benefits from Bicycling and Walking Not Quantified Here; (5) Estimating Current Levels of Bicycling and Walking in the United States; and (6) Year-2000 Scenarios. The tables discussed in the third chapter are as follows: (1) Estimated Bicycle Miles Traveled in the United States, 1991; (2) Estimated Walking Miles Traveled in the United States, 1991; (3) U.S. Bicycling and Walking Miles Relative to Passenger Vehicles; (4A) Fuel Savings from Bicycling and Walking in the United States, 1990-1991 Time Frame; (4B) Fuel Savings from Bicycling and Walking in the United States, Year 2000 Time Frame; (5A) E...

This article reviews the evolution of regulatory requirements pertaining to the design and constr... more This article reviews the evolution of regulatory requirements pertaining to the design and construction of commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. It identifies three main factors that have caused regulatory requirements to become more stringent (1) the increasing reactor population has necessitated reducing the per-reactor accident risk to maintain a high probability that a serious accident will not occur; (2) licensing reviews and operating experience have demonstrated that the desired levels of safety for the nuclear sector as a whole were not being achieved; and (3) the increased regulatory effort required to license and oversee an expanding nuclear sector has caused regulatory standards to be made more uniform throughout the sector, generally at a higher common denominator. The close link between regulatory stringency and the size of the nuclear sector suggests that future expansion of the nuclear sector wll lead to the imposition of new regulatory requirements.

The variation in nuclear plant capital costs, both over time and within the current generation of... more The variation in nuclear plant capital costs, both over time and within the current generation of plants, is considerable and is one of the impressive facts associated with that technology. This article concerns statistical methods for determining relative management efficiency or inefficiency in nuclear plant construction. It emphasizes the need to adjust raw cost data for important variables in order to make fair comparisons among disparate projects. The analysis identifies the costliest and least-costly projects and elucidates trends that helped or harmed several or more projects at the same time. Its findings can form a supplement and guide for engineering and management audits of individual nuclear projects. 5 references, 1 figure, 1 table.

Sustainable Transport, 2003

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 1999

The trouble with minimum parking requirements. DC Shoup Demand management as an element of transp... more The trouble with minimum parking requirements. DC Shoup Demand management as an element of transportation policy: using carrots and sticks to influence travel behavior. MD Meyer Secrets of success: assessing the large increases in transit ridership achieved by Houston and San Diego transit providers.

JAMA, 2001

and colleagues 1 studied 124 cases of serious injury, including 34 deaths, among bicycle riders w... more and colleagues 1 studied 124 cases of serious injury, including 34 deaths, among bicycle riders whose blood alcohol content (BAC) was measured. Alcohol was detected in 16 cases and BACs for these cases ranged from 0.02 g/dL, the threshold of detection, to well over 0.20 g/dL. (This latter figure is inferred from the mean of 0.18 g/dL reported by the authors for those 16 cases with positive BAC results, although no data were reported about the actual distribution of BAC.) The 10-fold range of BAC results, from 0.02 g/dL to 0.20 g/dL, is quite large and reflects alcohol consumption ranging from a single drink to extreme intoxication. It makes little sense to treat these subjects as though they all had the same level of risk. Nonetheless, Li et al did precisely that by calculating the odds ratio of bicycling injury for all BACs greater than 0.02 g/dL. The resulting odds ratio of 5.6 for injury is thus misleading.The authors' data suggest that this procedure is questionable. Three of the 124 cases (2.4%) had a BAC between 0.02 g/dL and 0.07 g/dL, as did 7 of the 342 control cases (2.0%). In other words, low-to-moderate drinkers were as prevalent in the injury group as in the control group (P = .71). Nonetheless, Li et al misleadingly imply that just 1 drink multiplies a cyclist's injury risk more than 5-fold. Li et al also claim that bicycling with a BAC of 0.08 g/dL or higher is associated with a 20 times greater odds ratio of injury. This result similarly requires lumping together very different cases, with BACs ranging from 0.08 g/dL to at least 0.20 g/dL. This article displaces attention from the primary source of risk to bicyclists: a hostile road environment created by an automobile-dominated society. It will further discourage bicycling, an intrinsically benign and healthful form of transportation and recreation that, with walking, offers the best means to increase physical activity, 2 at a time when inactivity is a significant public health problem. 3

Public Power; (United States), Sep 1, 1981

Capital costs for power plants due to inflation and regulatory requirements were originally estim... more Capital costs for power plants due to inflation and regulatory requirements were originally estimated to be higher for new coal plants than for nuclear plants, but experience shows a trend that reverses the assumed ratio and gives coal the advantage. The cost of nuclear plants completed during the 1970s was higher than anticipated, although no comprehensive study has been made. A cost-data-base comparison of nuclear and coal unit costs shows a widening difference in nuclear costs from 1971 to the projected 1.5 to 1 figures for 1988. Other factors affecting costs are unit size, multiple units, architect-engineer experience, scrubbers, and geographical location. Nuclear plants also show a longer construction period. New safety and environmental regulations will add to the operating as well as the capital costs. Mr Komanoff feels the nuclear industry needs to provide empirical evidence to justify its claim that nuclear compares favorably to coal. 3 figures. (DCK)

Barrels 35 Notes 41 Master Spreadsheet 42 Downloadable Files 43 References This report was first ... more Barrels 35 Notes 41 Master Spreadsheet 42 Downloadable Files 43 References This report was first published in typescript form in January, 2002. Some of the text has been revised. The analysis of oil savings is unchanged.

Traffic ” ― an op-ed essay published this week (Jan. 20) by Reuters.

This report is one in a series that documents an analysis of the full social cost of motor-vehicl... more This report is one in a series that documents an analysis of the full social cost of motor-vehicle use in the United States. The series is entitled The Annualized Social Cost of Motor-Vehicle Use in the United States, based on 1990-1991 Data. Support for the social-cost analysis was provided by Pew Charitable Trusts, the Federal Highway Administration

ENDING THE OIL AGEA sustainable society must depend upon renewable resources, which oil cannot be... more ENDING THE OIL AGEA sustainable society must depend upon renewable resources, which oil cannot be. It must recycle nonrenewable resources, and burned oil cannot be recycled. It needs to restore the base of renewable resources — our forests, soils, cities and human minds. In this effort America needs to lead. We are in retreat. We should be capable of doing better, and I urge that you require it. In my own fifty years’experience in the environmental movement, I have seen that most of the environmental damage, and of our stealing from children, that has turned me gray has come either from the mad dash for more energy or the thoughtless ways with which we waste what we find.

This book originated during a series of discussions in February 1978 with Vince Taylor, then a se... more This book originated during a series of discussions in February 1978 with Vince Taylor, then a senior economist with Pan-Heuristics in Los Angeles and now with the Union of Concerned Scientists. Vince and I were examining nuclear capital cost data compiled by Bill Mooz of the Rand Corporation, and we were struck by the strong correlation Bill had found between capital costs and the date of construction start, even when costs were adjusted for inflation. We were dissatisfied, however, with Bill's use of the passage of time to explain increases in capital costs, and we began to ruminate over the underlying factors that, acting over time, were leading to cost increases. This led us to consider the relationships among costs, regulatory criteria, and growth of the nuclear power sector, bringing us to the sector-size hypothesis which is developed in Chapter 3 and which permeates much of the book.

Tikkun, 2007

W W W . T I K K U N . O R G J U LY / A U G U S T 2 0 0 7 A May headline in the Chicago Tribune sa... more W W W . T I K K U N . O R G J U LY / A U G U S T 2 0 0 7 A May headline in the Chicago Tribune says it all: “The First Refugees of Global Warming: Bangladesh Watches in Horror as Much of the Nation Gives Way to Sea.” Each day’s news brings more reminders of the harms that global warming is already causing to people, communities, and nature throughout the world. From Hurricane Katrina and the inundation of island nations to heat waves in Europe and drought in Australia, climate change is wreaking horrific damage. It’s going to get worse, perhaps much worse, before it gets better. According to James Hansen, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies www.giss.nasa.gov and the preeminent scientist warning the world about global warming, the Earth has already warmed one degree Fahrenheit over the past thirty years. Another degree is in the pipeline because of gases that are already in the atmosphere, and still another degree is in store because of carbon dioxide emissions that wi...

Bicycling and walking are the two major non-fuel-consuming, non-polluting forms of transportation... more Bicycling and walking are the two major non-fuel-consuming, non-polluting forms of transportation in the United States. This report examines the environmental benefits of bicycling and walking in the following chapters: (1) Executive Summary; (2) Commentary: Reversing the Marginalization of Human-Powered Transport; (3) Discussion of Findings Presented in the Tables; (4) Other Environmental Benefits from Bicycling and Walking Not Quantified Here; (5) Estimating Current Levels of Bicycling and Walking in the United States; and (6) Year-2000 Scenarios. The tables discussed in the third chapter are as follows: (1) Estimated Bicycle Miles Traveled in the United States, 1991; (2) Estimated Walking Miles Traveled in the United States, 1991; (3) U.S. Bicycling and Walking Miles Relative to Passenger Vehicles; (4A) Fuel Savings from Bicycling and Walking in the United States, 1990-1991 Time Frame; (4B) Fuel Savings from Bicycling and Walking in the United States, Year 2000 Time Frame; (5A) E...

This article reviews the evolution of regulatory requirements pertaining to the design and constr... more This article reviews the evolution of regulatory requirements pertaining to the design and construction of commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. It identifies three main factors that have caused regulatory requirements to become more stringent (1) the increasing reactor population has necessitated reducing the per-reactor accident risk to maintain a high probability that a serious accident will not occur; (2) licensing reviews and operating experience have demonstrated that the desired levels of safety for the nuclear sector as a whole were not being achieved; and (3) the increased regulatory effort required to license and oversee an expanding nuclear sector has caused regulatory standards to be made more uniform throughout the sector, generally at a higher common denominator. The close link between regulatory stringency and the size of the nuclear sector suggests that future expansion of the nuclear sector wll lead to the imposition of new regulatory requirements.

The variation in nuclear plant capital costs, both over time and within the current generation of... more The variation in nuclear plant capital costs, both over time and within the current generation of plants, is considerable and is one of the impressive facts associated with that technology. This article concerns statistical methods for determining relative management efficiency or inefficiency in nuclear plant construction. It emphasizes the need to adjust raw cost data for important variables in order to make fair comparisons among disparate projects. The analysis identifies the costliest and least-costly projects and elucidates trends that helped or harmed several or more projects at the same time. Its findings can form a supplement and guide for engineering and management audits of individual nuclear projects. 5 references, 1 figure, 1 table.

Sustainable Transport, 2003

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 1999

The trouble with minimum parking requirements. DC Shoup Demand management as an element of transp... more The trouble with minimum parking requirements. DC Shoup Demand management as an element of transportation policy: using carrots and sticks to influence travel behavior. MD Meyer Secrets of success: assessing the large increases in transit ridership achieved by Houston and San Diego transit providers.

JAMA, 2001

and colleagues 1 studied 124 cases of serious injury, including 34 deaths, among bicycle riders w... more and colleagues 1 studied 124 cases of serious injury, including 34 deaths, among bicycle riders whose blood alcohol content (BAC) was measured. Alcohol was detected in 16 cases and BACs for these cases ranged from 0.02 g/dL, the threshold of detection, to well over 0.20 g/dL. (This latter figure is inferred from the mean of 0.18 g/dL reported by the authors for those 16 cases with positive BAC results, although no data were reported about the actual distribution of BAC.) The 10-fold range of BAC results, from 0.02 g/dL to 0.20 g/dL, is quite large and reflects alcohol consumption ranging from a single drink to extreme intoxication. It makes little sense to treat these subjects as though they all had the same level of risk. Nonetheless, Li et al did precisely that by calculating the odds ratio of bicycling injury for all BACs greater than 0.02 g/dL. The resulting odds ratio of 5.6 for injury is thus misleading.The authors' data suggest that this procedure is questionable. Three of the 124 cases (2.4%) had a BAC between 0.02 g/dL and 0.07 g/dL, as did 7 of the 342 control cases (2.0%). In other words, low-to-moderate drinkers were as prevalent in the injury group as in the control group (P = .71). Nonetheless, Li et al misleadingly imply that just 1 drink multiplies a cyclist's injury risk more than 5-fold. Li et al also claim that bicycling with a BAC of 0.08 g/dL or higher is associated with a 20 times greater odds ratio of injury. This result similarly requires lumping together very different cases, with BACs ranging from 0.08 g/dL to at least 0.20 g/dL. This article displaces attention from the primary source of risk to bicyclists: a hostile road environment created by an automobile-dominated society. It will further discourage bicycling, an intrinsically benign and healthful form of transportation and recreation that, with walking, offers the best means to increase physical activity, 2 at a time when inactivity is a significant public health problem. 3