Chisadza Chisadza - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Chisadza Chisadza

Research paper thumbnail of A decolonised Commission agenda: the missing ingredients – Author's reply

Research paper thumbnail of The Lancet Commission on peaceful societies through health equity and gender equality

Research paper thumbnail of Financial Inclusion and Gender Inequality in African Countries

Routledge eBooks, Jun 16, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Group identity in fairness decisions: Discrimination or inequality aversion?

Journal of behavioral and experimental economics, Aug 1, 2021

Abstract This paper reports preliminary evidence from a pilot study (n=91, with 455 decisions) on... more Abstract This paper reports preliminary evidence from a pilot study (n=91, with 455 decisions) on issues of decision time and race in distributive fairness decisions in South Africa. We conduct a dictator game to gather data on transfer amounts and time taken for decisions, where dictators are paired with a series of partners with whom they either share or do not share race. Our results are not in line with the empirical evidence that suggests that impulsive decisions are fair: transfers in our sample increase with decision time, with fairer decisions taking longer than selfish decisions. We note significantly higher transfers to black receivers from black decision-makers. White dictators give more to white receivers in very short ( 15 second) decisions, but when they take more time to decide, more is given to black versus white receivers. This race-based discrimination in transfers appears to be primarily motivated by inequality aversion: black receivers are (correctly) assumed to have lower income than their white peers. Although our sample is small, the evidence of willingness to reduce perceived race-based inequality has encouraging implications for redistributive policies in the country, and therefore warrants further investigation.

Research paper thumbnail of The Effect of Pre-Colonial Ethnic Institutions and European Influences on Contemporary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa

Journal of Development Studies, Jun 19, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Employer characteristics and youth employment outcomes in the formal sector in South Africa: Assessment using administrative tax data

Working Paper Series, Aug 1, 2018

provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable ... more provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable development. The Institute began operations in 1985 in Helsinki, Finland, as the first research and training centre of the United Nations University. Today it is a unique blend of think tank, research institute, and UN agency-providing a range of services from policy advice to governments as well as freely available original research. The Institute is funded through income from an endowment fund with additional contributions to its work programme from Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom as well as earmarked contributions for specific projects from a variety of donors.

Research paper thumbnail of Climate shocks and wealth inequality in the UK: evidence from monthly data

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Jun 1, 2023

This paper investigates both the linear and nonlinear effects of climate risk shocks on wealth in... more This paper investigates both the linear and nonlinear effects of climate risk shocks on wealth inequality in the UK using the local projections (LPs) method, based on high-frequency, i.e., monthly data. The linear results show that climate risk shocks lead to an increase in wealth inequality in the longer term. The nonlinear results present some evidence of heterogeneous responses of wealth inequality to climate risk variable shocks between high-and low-climate risk regimes. The findings highlight the disproportionate increased burden of climate change on households that are already experiencing poverty, particularly households in high-climate risk areas. As such, measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change need to be tailored so as not to overburden the poor.

Research paper thumbnail of Symmetric and asymmetric effects of financial deepening on income inequality in South Africa

Development Southern Africa, Jan 6, 2023

The aim of this study is to examine the financial development-inequality nexus in South Africa fr... more The aim of this study is to examine the financial development-inequality nexus in South Africa from 1980 to 2017, specifically if financial deepening reduces income inequality. The asymmetric effects of financial deepening on income inequality is investigated by employing the autoregressive distributed lag by Pesaran et al. (2001). The initial results indicate a positive association between financial deepening and income inequality. On further exploration, we find evidence that the Greenwood and Jovanovich hypothesis holds for South Africa. We observe an inverted non-linear relationship between financial deepening and income inequality in the longrun. The results suggest that at early stages of financial development, income inequality increases, but gradually starts to decrease as the financial sector becomes more established in the long-run. The findings highlight the need for policymakers to focus on inclusive financial sector reforms in the early stages of development.

Research paper thumbnail of Uncertainty and tourism in Africa

Tourism Economics, Nov 3, 2020

Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores ... more Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores the factors that drive this important contributor of economic growth on the continent. Previous literature focusses mainly on developed countries. This study weighs in on the recent debate on African tourism by providing evidence on the role that economic uncertainties have on tourist arrivals. Using panel data from 1996 to 2017, we nd that economic uncertainties reduce tourist arrivals in Africa in comparison to other global regions, such as Europe and Latin America. Further disaggregation by African regions reveals that economic uncertainties in the north, south and west regions drive these adverse results. These regions have been the hardest hit by political instability and social unrest during the period under review, which may have acted as a deterrent to tourists.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy

Energy Sources Part B-economics Planning and Policy, Aug 2, 2016

The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supp... more The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on an economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the oil supply and demand shocks on the South African economy using a sign restriction-based structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Our results show that an oil supply shock has a short-lived significant impact only on the inflation rate, while the impact on the other variables is statistically insignificant. Supply disruptions result in a short-term increase in the domestic inflation rate with no reaction from the monetary policy. An aggregate demand shock results in short-to medium-term improvements in domestic output and the real exchange rate. The effect is statistically insignificant for the inflation rate as well as the monetary policy instrument. The inflation rate and the real exchange rate react negatively to an oil-specific demand shock, while output is positively related to unanticipated changes in oil price due to speculations. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the source of the oil price movements, since an oil price increase necessarily does not imply a negative effect on the economy.

Research paper thumbnail of Giant oil discoveries and conflicts

Environment, Development and Sustainability, May 2, 2023

This study investigates the effects of oil discoveries on conflict. We propose that the effects f... more This study investigates the effects of oil discoveries on conflict. We propose that the effects from oil discoveries may differ depending on types of conflicts, mainly interstate versus intrastate. Using a measure for oil discoveries for a global panel of countries between 1970 and 2012, we find a positive association between oil discoveries and both conflict types, controlling for other conflict determinants and unobserved heterogeneity. However, we observe that the effects on intrastate conflicts are evident within a year of discovering the oil, while the effects on interstate conflicts only become evident after five years of the discovery. We also find that within intrastate conflicts, the results are mainly driven by the effects on ethnic conflicts. The findings imply that there may be different mechanisms at play for interstate versus intrastate conflicts related to resource discoveries. For example, resource-induced inequality can aggravate already existing tensions between groups in society, which can result in internal conflict soon after discovering the resource. On the other hand, the feasibility of engaging in conflict with a neighbouring resource-rich country depends on fighting capacity and mobilising resources, which can delay interstate conflicts. Overall, we believe the results from this study will provide some further understanding to the dynamics involving natural resources and types of conflict.

Research paper thumbnail of Climate Change and Inequality: Evidence from the United States

Sustainability, Mar 17, 2023

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY

Research paper thumbnail of Income inequality and oil resources: Panel evidence from the United States

Energy Policy, Dec 1, 2021

There has been little research examining income distributional consequences from resource abundan... more There has been little research examining income distributional consequences from resource abundance and dependency. Using panel evidence from the United States, we nd contrasting nonmonotonic outcomes from oil abundance in comparison to oil dependency. Oil abundance mitigates inequality within U.S. states. However, the diminishing impact on inequality tends to lessen with higher levels of oil production. The opposite holds true for oil dependency. The ndings suggest that income inequality within U.S. states is more vulnerable to oil dependency.

Research paper thumbnail of The role of incentive structure in eliciting willingness to donate

Economics Letters, Mar 1, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Financial Development and Income Inequality: Evidence From Advanced, Emerging and Developing Economies

Annals of Financial Economics, Mar 1, 2023

We investigate the effects of financial development on income inequality for a global sample of c... more We investigate the effects of financial development on income inequality for a global sample of countries between 1980 and 2019. The study contributes to the current literature by first, making use of a multifaceted index of financial development that captures different aspects of financial developments over time. Second, we compare the effects of financial development on income inequality across economic classifications, namely advanced, emerging and least developed countries. Last, we investigate the non-linear effects of financial development on income inequality across these economic classifications. The findings indicate that in general, financial development reduces inequality across emerging and least developed countries, but is not statistically significant for advanced countries. However, when we disaggregate the financial development index into its sub-components (financial institutions and financial markets), we find different effects on inequality, based on the levels of development. Further investigation on the dimensions under financial institutions and financial markets (depth, access and efficiency) reveals that banking sector development under financial institutions has income inequality-reducing effects in emerging and least developed countries, while stock market development under financial markets widens inequality in least developed countries. We also find heterogeneous non-linear effects between emerging and least developed countries. The findings in our paper firstly highlight the nuances in financial development depending on the level of development in countries, and secondly that policies focused on financial inclusion of the poor can mitigate inequality.

Research paper thumbnail of Online and face‐to‐face learning: Evidence from students’ performance during the Covid‐19 pandemic

African Development Review, Mar 31, 2021

This study investigates the factors that predict students' performance after transitioning from f... more This study investigates the factors that predict students' performance after transitioning from face‐to‐face to online learning as a result of the Covid‐19 pandemic. It uses students' responses from survey questions and the difference in the average assessment grades between pre‐lockdown and post‐lockdown at a South African university. We find that students' performance was positively associated with good wifi access, relative to using mobile internet data. We also observe lower academic performance for students who found transitioning to online difficult and who expressed a preference for self‐study (i.e. reading through class slides and notes) over assisted study (i.e. joining live lectures or watching recorded lectures). The findings suggest that improving digital infrastructure and reducing the cost of internet access may be necessary for mitigating the impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic on education outcomes.

Research paper thumbnail of Leaders and Tenures in Sub‐Saharan Africa

South African Journal of Economics, Jul 19, 2020

While there has been extensive evidence provided on the varying effects of leaders' extended tenu... more While there has been extensive evidence provided on the varying effects of leaders' extended tenures on economic growth, political institutions and conflict, little attention in the empirical literature has been given to the determinants that may contribute to long tenures. Without being cognisant of these underlying factors, any efforts aimed at limiting tenures to progress economic development and democratic institutions will have little effect, as evidenced by several leaders' attempts to subvert constitutional laws in this regard. Using panel data analysis for sub-Saharan African countries between 1960 and 2015, this study looks at the likely determinants (both at individual and country level) that can increase or decrease political survival. The preliminary results suggest that at an individual level, the leader's age, political career and rebel experience increase the likelihood of extended tenure, while the leader's education reduces the probability of extended tenure. At a country level, the country's wealth is likely to increase tenures, while increased conflict and strong institutions decrease a leader's tenure.

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Growth and Quality of Life in Africa

International handbooks of quality-of-life, 2019

Economic growth is an important instrument for reducing poverty and improving quality of life. Ha... more Economic growth is an important instrument for reducing poverty and improving quality of life. Having spent a long time in sluggish growth territory, Africa’s surge in economic growth since the mid- to late 1990s was indeed worth celebrating. The question is: to what extent was this improvement in growth inclusive and thus shared, by benefitting the quality of life of the broader population? This chapter analyses the growth performance in Africa between 1960 and 2016 and its effect on various quality of life measures. We analyse the full period as well as splitting it into two sub-periods, in order to separate the lost decade-era and the era of high growth in Africa. We find that, contrary to expectation, the period of high growth appears not to have significant positive growth spill-over effects on either the average wealth per person, or the quality of life measures. This is in contrast with the improvements in selected quality of life indicators, as measured by the performance in the Millennium Development Goals. The implications highlighted by this analysis suggest that the recent growth in Africa was not inclusive, as it failed to contribute to the improvement in the quality of life of its citizens, thus putting the sustainability of the improvement in jeopardy.

Research paper thumbnail of Globalisation and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Revue Internationale de Politique de Développement, Feb 8, 2018

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the fund... more The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the funder, ERSA or the author's affiliated institution(s). ERSA shall not be liable to any person for inaccurate information or opinions contained herein.

Research paper thumbnail of The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and output volatility: High vs. low income countries

Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Nov 3, 2021

In this study we explore whether more complex economies are better shielded against exogenous sho... more In this study we explore whether more complex economies are better shielded against exogenous shocks. We contribute to the empirical literature on determinants of output volatility by introducing a relatively new index on productive capabilities of export goods, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), developed by Hausmann et al. (2014). The ECI measures the productive capabilities of countries by explaining the knowledge accumulated in a population based on the goods they produce and export and to which countries they export. As such, not only does this measure capture diversification but also the technology embedded in the products. Using panel data analysis for a cross section of countries from 1984 to 2016, we find variations in the effects of ECI on output volatility between high and low income countries. For high income countries, increases in ECI reduce output volatility in the short to medium term (under 3 years), whereas we observe a longer delay in output volatility moderation for low income countries. The findings suggest that low income countries have less diversified and less complex export goods which leave them open to external shocks and reduce their ability to adjust quickly to the shocks. Furthermore, disaggregation by regions reveals that economic complexity in Asia is relatively more effective at reducing output volatility than in Africa. The difference between the two regions could be due to Africa's primary production and exports being in relatively homogenous goods with no differentiation and subject to the volatility of world markets.

Research paper thumbnail of A decolonised Commission agenda: the missing ingredients – Author's reply

Research paper thumbnail of The Lancet Commission on peaceful societies through health equity and gender equality

Research paper thumbnail of Financial Inclusion and Gender Inequality in African Countries

Routledge eBooks, Jun 16, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Group identity in fairness decisions: Discrimination or inequality aversion?

Journal of behavioral and experimental economics, Aug 1, 2021

Abstract This paper reports preliminary evidence from a pilot study (n=91, with 455 decisions) on... more Abstract This paper reports preliminary evidence from a pilot study (n=91, with 455 decisions) on issues of decision time and race in distributive fairness decisions in South Africa. We conduct a dictator game to gather data on transfer amounts and time taken for decisions, where dictators are paired with a series of partners with whom they either share or do not share race. Our results are not in line with the empirical evidence that suggests that impulsive decisions are fair: transfers in our sample increase with decision time, with fairer decisions taking longer than selfish decisions. We note significantly higher transfers to black receivers from black decision-makers. White dictators give more to white receivers in very short ( 15 second) decisions, but when they take more time to decide, more is given to black versus white receivers. This race-based discrimination in transfers appears to be primarily motivated by inequality aversion: black receivers are (correctly) assumed to have lower income than their white peers. Although our sample is small, the evidence of willingness to reduce perceived race-based inequality has encouraging implications for redistributive policies in the country, and therefore warrants further investigation.

Research paper thumbnail of The Effect of Pre-Colonial Ethnic Institutions and European Influences on Contemporary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa

Journal of Development Studies, Jun 19, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Employer characteristics and youth employment outcomes in the formal sector in South Africa: Assessment using administrative tax data

Working Paper Series, Aug 1, 2018

provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable ... more provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable development. The Institute began operations in 1985 in Helsinki, Finland, as the first research and training centre of the United Nations University. Today it is a unique blend of think tank, research institute, and UN agency-providing a range of services from policy advice to governments as well as freely available original research. The Institute is funded through income from an endowment fund with additional contributions to its work programme from Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom as well as earmarked contributions for specific projects from a variety of donors.

Research paper thumbnail of Climate shocks and wealth inequality in the UK: evidence from monthly data

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Jun 1, 2023

This paper investigates both the linear and nonlinear effects of climate risk shocks on wealth in... more This paper investigates both the linear and nonlinear effects of climate risk shocks on wealth inequality in the UK using the local projections (LPs) method, based on high-frequency, i.e., monthly data. The linear results show that climate risk shocks lead to an increase in wealth inequality in the longer term. The nonlinear results present some evidence of heterogeneous responses of wealth inequality to climate risk variable shocks between high-and low-climate risk regimes. The findings highlight the disproportionate increased burden of climate change on households that are already experiencing poverty, particularly households in high-climate risk areas. As such, measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change need to be tailored so as not to overburden the poor.

Research paper thumbnail of Symmetric and asymmetric effects of financial deepening on income inequality in South Africa

Development Southern Africa, Jan 6, 2023

The aim of this study is to examine the financial development-inequality nexus in South Africa fr... more The aim of this study is to examine the financial development-inequality nexus in South Africa from 1980 to 2017, specifically if financial deepening reduces income inequality. The asymmetric effects of financial deepening on income inequality is investigated by employing the autoregressive distributed lag by Pesaran et al. (2001). The initial results indicate a positive association between financial deepening and income inequality. On further exploration, we find evidence that the Greenwood and Jovanovich hypothesis holds for South Africa. We observe an inverted non-linear relationship between financial deepening and income inequality in the longrun. The results suggest that at early stages of financial development, income inequality increases, but gradually starts to decrease as the financial sector becomes more established in the long-run. The findings highlight the need for policymakers to focus on inclusive financial sector reforms in the early stages of development.

Research paper thumbnail of Uncertainty and tourism in Africa

Tourism Economics, Nov 3, 2020

Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores ... more Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores the factors that drive this important contributor of economic growth on the continent. Previous literature focusses mainly on developed countries. This study weighs in on the recent debate on African tourism by providing evidence on the role that economic uncertainties have on tourist arrivals. Using panel data from 1996 to 2017, we nd that economic uncertainties reduce tourist arrivals in Africa in comparison to other global regions, such as Europe and Latin America. Further disaggregation by African regions reveals that economic uncertainties in the north, south and west regions drive these adverse results. These regions have been the hardest hit by political instability and social unrest during the period under review, which may have acted as a deterrent to tourists.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy

Energy Sources Part B-economics Planning and Policy, Aug 2, 2016

The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supp... more The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on an economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the oil supply and demand shocks on the South African economy using a sign restriction-based structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Our results show that an oil supply shock has a short-lived significant impact only on the inflation rate, while the impact on the other variables is statistically insignificant. Supply disruptions result in a short-term increase in the domestic inflation rate with no reaction from the monetary policy. An aggregate demand shock results in short-to medium-term improvements in domestic output and the real exchange rate. The effect is statistically insignificant for the inflation rate as well as the monetary policy instrument. The inflation rate and the real exchange rate react negatively to an oil-specific demand shock, while output is positively related to unanticipated changes in oil price due to speculations. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the source of the oil price movements, since an oil price increase necessarily does not imply a negative effect on the economy.

Research paper thumbnail of Giant oil discoveries and conflicts

Environment, Development and Sustainability, May 2, 2023

This study investigates the effects of oil discoveries on conflict. We propose that the effects f... more This study investigates the effects of oil discoveries on conflict. We propose that the effects from oil discoveries may differ depending on types of conflicts, mainly interstate versus intrastate. Using a measure for oil discoveries for a global panel of countries between 1970 and 2012, we find a positive association between oil discoveries and both conflict types, controlling for other conflict determinants and unobserved heterogeneity. However, we observe that the effects on intrastate conflicts are evident within a year of discovering the oil, while the effects on interstate conflicts only become evident after five years of the discovery. We also find that within intrastate conflicts, the results are mainly driven by the effects on ethnic conflicts. The findings imply that there may be different mechanisms at play for interstate versus intrastate conflicts related to resource discoveries. For example, resource-induced inequality can aggravate already existing tensions between groups in society, which can result in internal conflict soon after discovering the resource. On the other hand, the feasibility of engaging in conflict with a neighbouring resource-rich country depends on fighting capacity and mobilising resources, which can delay interstate conflicts. Overall, we believe the results from this study will provide some further understanding to the dynamics involving natural resources and types of conflict.

Research paper thumbnail of Climate Change and Inequality: Evidence from the United States

Sustainability, Mar 17, 2023

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY

Research paper thumbnail of Income inequality and oil resources: Panel evidence from the United States

Energy Policy, Dec 1, 2021

There has been little research examining income distributional consequences from resource abundan... more There has been little research examining income distributional consequences from resource abundance and dependency. Using panel evidence from the United States, we nd contrasting nonmonotonic outcomes from oil abundance in comparison to oil dependency. Oil abundance mitigates inequality within U.S. states. However, the diminishing impact on inequality tends to lessen with higher levels of oil production. The opposite holds true for oil dependency. The ndings suggest that income inequality within U.S. states is more vulnerable to oil dependency.

Research paper thumbnail of The role of incentive structure in eliciting willingness to donate

Economics Letters, Mar 1, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Financial Development and Income Inequality: Evidence From Advanced, Emerging and Developing Economies

Annals of Financial Economics, Mar 1, 2023

We investigate the effects of financial development on income inequality for a global sample of c... more We investigate the effects of financial development on income inequality for a global sample of countries between 1980 and 2019. The study contributes to the current literature by first, making use of a multifaceted index of financial development that captures different aspects of financial developments over time. Second, we compare the effects of financial development on income inequality across economic classifications, namely advanced, emerging and least developed countries. Last, we investigate the non-linear effects of financial development on income inequality across these economic classifications. The findings indicate that in general, financial development reduces inequality across emerging and least developed countries, but is not statistically significant for advanced countries. However, when we disaggregate the financial development index into its sub-components (financial institutions and financial markets), we find different effects on inequality, based on the levels of development. Further investigation on the dimensions under financial institutions and financial markets (depth, access and efficiency) reveals that banking sector development under financial institutions has income inequality-reducing effects in emerging and least developed countries, while stock market development under financial markets widens inequality in least developed countries. We also find heterogeneous non-linear effects between emerging and least developed countries. The findings in our paper firstly highlight the nuances in financial development depending on the level of development in countries, and secondly that policies focused on financial inclusion of the poor can mitigate inequality.

Research paper thumbnail of Online and face‐to‐face learning: Evidence from students’ performance during the Covid‐19 pandemic

African Development Review, Mar 31, 2021

This study investigates the factors that predict students' performance after transitioning from f... more This study investigates the factors that predict students' performance after transitioning from face‐to‐face to online learning as a result of the Covid‐19 pandemic. It uses students' responses from survey questions and the difference in the average assessment grades between pre‐lockdown and post‐lockdown at a South African university. We find that students' performance was positively associated with good wifi access, relative to using mobile internet data. We also observe lower academic performance for students who found transitioning to online difficult and who expressed a preference for self‐study (i.e. reading through class slides and notes) over assisted study (i.e. joining live lectures or watching recorded lectures). The findings suggest that improving digital infrastructure and reducing the cost of internet access may be necessary for mitigating the impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic on education outcomes.

Research paper thumbnail of Leaders and Tenures in Sub‐Saharan Africa

South African Journal of Economics, Jul 19, 2020

While there has been extensive evidence provided on the varying effects of leaders' extended tenu... more While there has been extensive evidence provided on the varying effects of leaders' extended tenures on economic growth, political institutions and conflict, little attention in the empirical literature has been given to the determinants that may contribute to long tenures. Without being cognisant of these underlying factors, any efforts aimed at limiting tenures to progress economic development and democratic institutions will have little effect, as evidenced by several leaders' attempts to subvert constitutional laws in this regard. Using panel data analysis for sub-Saharan African countries between 1960 and 2015, this study looks at the likely determinants (both at individual and country level) that can increase or decrease political survival. The preliminary results suggest that at an individual level, the leader's age, political career and rebel experience increase the likelihood of extended tenure, while the leader's education reduces the probability of extended tenure. At a country level, the country's wealth is likely to increase tenures, while increased conflict and strong institutions decrease a leader's tenure.

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Growth and Quality of Life in Africa

International handbooks of quality-of-life, 2019

Economic growth is an important instrument for reducing poverty and improving quality of life. Ha... more Economic growth is an important instrument for reducing poverty and improving quality of life. Having spent a long time in sluggish growth territory, Africa’s surge in economic growth since the mid- to late 1990s was indeed worth celebrating. The question is: to what extent was this improvement in growth inclusive and thus shared, by benefitting the quality of life of the broader population? This chapter analyses the growth performance in Africa between 1960 and 2016 and its effect on various quality of life measures. We analyse the full period as well as splitting it into two sub-periods, in order to separate the lost decade-era and the era of high growth in Africa. We find that, contrary to expectation, the period of high growth appears not to have significant positive growth spill-over effects on either the average wealth per person, or the quality of life measures. This is in contrast with the improvements in selected quality of life indicators, as measured by the performance in the Millennium Development Goals. The implications highlighted by this analysis suggest that the recent growth in Africa was not inclusive, as it failed to contribute to the improvement in the quality of life of its citizens, thus putting the sustainability of the improvement in jeopardy.

Research paper thumbnail of Globalisation and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Revue Internationale de Politique de Développement, Feb 8, 2018

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the fund... more The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the funder, ERSA or the author's affiliated institution(s). ERSA shall not be liable to any person for inaccurate information or opinions contained herein.

Research paper thumbnail of The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and output volatility: High vs. low income countries

Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Nov 3, 2021

In this study we explore whether more complex economies are better shielded against exogenous sho... more In this study we explore whether more complex economies are better shielded against exogenous shocks. We contribute to the empirical literature on determinants of output volatility by introducing a relatively new index on productive capabilities of export goods, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), developed by Hausmann et al. (2014). The ECI measures the productive capabilities of countries by explaining the knowledge accumulated in a population based on the goods they produce and export and to which countries they export. As such, not only does this measure capture diversification but also the technology embedded in the products. Using panel data analysis for a cross section of countries from 1984 to 2016, we find variations in the effects of ECI on output volatility between high and low income countries. For high income countries, increases in ECI reduce output volatility in the short to medium term (under 3 years), whereas we observe a longer delay in output volatility moderation for low income countries. The findings suggest that low income countries have less diversified and less complex export goods which leave them open to external shocks and reduce their ability to adjust quickly to the shocks. Furthermore, disaggregation by regions reveals that economic complexity in Asia is relatively more effective at reducing output volatility than in Africa. The difference between the two regions could be due to Africa's primary production and exports being in relatively homogenous goods with no differentiation and subject to the volatility of world markets.