Christine Shepard - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Christine Shepard

J. Cetacean Res. Manage.

Information characterising site fidelity and abundance for common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops t... more Information characterising site fidelity and abundance for common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) along the southwest coast of Florida is important for defining stock structure for management purposes. Long-term site fidelity and ranging patterns of bottlenose dolphins in Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound, Florida were investigated using photo-ID data collected during 566 boat-based surveys from 1982 through 2007. Seasonal abundance estimates were generated from seven multi-week field seasons during 2001 through 2006, before and after a major hurricane and red tide event occurred in the area. In total, 1,154 distinctive dolphins were identified up to 34 times each with 84% of individuals resighted on more than one day. Multiple year residency rates were high with 81% of dolphins sighted in at least two years and 30% over ten or more years. Seventy-six percent of individuals with sightings on two or more days were observed in both summer and winter. Of 249 dolphins sigh...

Climatic Change

Climate change-exacerbated flooding has renewed interest in property buyouts as a pillar of manag... more Climate change-exacerbated flooding has renewed interest in property buyouts as a pillar of managed retreat from coastal zones and floodplains in the United States. However, federal buyout programs are widely critiqued for being inaccessible and inequitable. To learn whether and how subnational buyout programs overcome these limitations, we examined five leading US state, county, and local buyout programs to see what they teach us about redesigning future federal policies. Our mixed-methods research used interviews and document analysis to develop case studies, juxtaposed subnational strategies against a review of critiques of federal buyouts, and focus group discussions with subnational buyout managers and experts to identify limitations of their programs. We find that subnational programs can be more inclusive and better respond to resident needs as compared to existing federal programs due to their access to dedicated, non-federal funding and their standing institutional status, ...

The Sarasota Dolphin Research Program (SDRP) has completed another successful year as the “world’... more The Sarasota Dolphin Research Program (SDRP) has completed another successful year as the “world’s longest-running wild dolphin research program.” Our research is in its 38 th year since we asked the simple question: “Do the same bottlenose dolphins live in Sarasota Bay year-round?” In 1970 I was a high school student, assisting Blair Irvine on dolphin and shark research at Mote Marine Laboratory, including a dolphin tagging project. It was my first “real job,” even though I was a volunteer. We’ve come a long way since then. The answer to our original question from the tagging research — the first documentation of long-term, multi-generational residency by dolphins — set the stage for all that we have done over the decades since. Initial basic biological research has been expanded to investigate increasingly refined questions, and we have added a strong commitment to conservation action, education and training. Over the past 37 years, we have created a unique situation for learning ...

Coastal Resilience (www.coastalresilience.org) is an ecosystem-based, coastal and marine spatial ... more Coastal Resilience (www.coastalresilience.org) is an ecosystem-based, coastal and marine spatial planning framework and web mapping application that illustrates ecological, socioeconomic, and coastal hazards information in Long Island Sound (New York and Connecticut), USA. Much of Long Island Sound's private property is only inches above sea level, placing millions of dollars in public and private funds at risk to rising sea

Coastal Management, 2022

Abstract Many tools have been generated in recent decades to support decision-makers in understan... more Abstract Many tools have been generated in recent decades to support decision-makers in understanding and acting on climate science, causing stakeholders in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf) to repeatedly express the need for guidance when selecting climate resilience tools. The Climate and Resilience Community of Practice (CoP), Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA), and the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative (Cooperative) developed and implemented an end-user driven process for tool creation. Research has suggested that integrating target end-users throughout tool development improves the probability a tool will be utilized, yet there is little practical guidance available on how to successfully design and implement an end-user driven tool development process. In this study, an end-user driven process and results from implementing the process during tool development are presented. Challenges, successful approaches, and lessons learned to support future tool development, especially for tools focused on sharing climate science are identified. Guidance is provided on needed expertise, timelines for engagement with target end-users, and methods on how to solicit, analyze, and assimilate end-user needs, perspectives, and priorities into a final product.

Global Change Biology, 2022

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the G... more Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

The methodology for estimating the risk reduction benefits of mangroves follows a series of steps... more The methodology for estimating the risk reduction benefits of mangroves follows a series of steps that are standard practice in catastrophe risk and coastal engineering assessments, and is also outlined as the recommended methodology for national valuations of natural capital by the World Bank (Beck & Lange, 2016). Using these steps, we estimate surge-related flood damages for two scenarios: i) With Mangroves, and; ii) Without Mangroves. The difference in damages between these scenarios at a given location represents the flood reduction impacts of mangroves at that location.

Research Data Repository, Duke University, 2021

With support from the National Academies’ Gulf Research Program, Duke University's Nicholas I... more With support from the National Academies’ Gulf Research Program, Duke University's Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, The Harte Research Institute, and The Nature Conservancy are leading a project to advance standardized metrics of restoration success across the Gulf of Mexico. To do this, we are using ecosystem service logic models (see other side) to identify outcomes of restoration actions that are important to people. Then, we develop metrics for each of these outcomes in collaboration with stakeholders and experts from across the Gulf.

Rising seas, expanding coastal development, and increases in the frequency of extreme weather cat... more Rising seas, expanding coastal development, and increases in the frequency of extreme weather catastrophes are putting shoreline communities around the world at risk from erosion and flooding (Day et al. 2007; Nicholls et al. 1999; US Army Corps of Engineers [USACE] 2015). Spurred by a widened awareness surrounding the loss of coastal habitats and the deficiencies of traditional erosion control structures, much progress has been made to advance the science and implementation of nature-based approaches to coastal protection (Bilkovic et al. 2016; Currin et al. 2008, 2009; Jones et al. 2012; National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2015; National Research Council [NRC] 2014). Researchers, practitioners, and the private sector have developed a suite of alternative techniques for stabilizing shorelines, such as replanting saltmarsh or CONteNtS

Scientific Reports, 2021

Characterizing the fragility, resistance, and resilience of marshes is critical for understanding... more Characterizing the fragility, resistance, and resilience of marshes is critical for understanding their role in reducing storm damages and for helping to manage the recovery of these natural defenses. This study uses high-resolution aerial imagery to quantify the impacts of Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane, on coastal salt marshes in the Florida Panhandle, USA. Marsh damage was classified into several categories, including deposition of sediment or wrack, fallen trees, vegetation loss, and conversion to open water. The marshes were highly resistant to storm damages even under extreme conditions; only 2% of the 173,259 km2 of marshes in the study area were damaged—a failure rate much lower than that of artificial defenses. Marshes may be more resistant than resilient to storm impacts; damaged marshes were slow to recover, and only 16% of damaged marshes had recovered 6 months after landfall. Marsh management mattered for resistance and resilience; marshes on publicly-managed...

Environmental Science & Policy, 2021

Increasingly, climate researchers are pressured to generate products and tools from their researc... more Increasingly, climate researchers are pressured to generate products and tools from their research that support informed decision-making for increased social and environmental resilience. Despite the goal of these tools to integrate climate science into decision-making, little follow-up study is conducted after climate resilience tools are released to understand their effectiveness or application. It is important as limited resources across federal, state, local, and private sectors are invested in the development of climate resilience tools to understand their efficacy at achieving their intended purpose(s). This study leveraged Gulf TREE, a climate resilience tool released in 2018, to assess diffusion and adoption by intended users for intended purposes. Strategic efforts to enhance Gulf TREE via stakeholder engagement during development and positive evaluations prior to tool release, suggested there would be a high rate of adoption across all potential end-users; however, an end-user's intention to use a tool does not guarantee implementation. To expand the body of knowledge around climate resilience tool development, diffusion, and adoption, the authors explored the following research objectives: 1) Assess if endusers are adopting Gulf TREE; 2) Assess if end-users are adopting Gulf TREE for the intended purpose of finding climate change resilience tools; 3) Assess if end-users from different stakeholder categories are adopting Gulf TREE similarly. The study successfully determined that the climate resilience tool, Gulf TREE, was being adopted for its intended purposes. There were not sufficient data for statistical comparisons of use between stakeholder categories; however, general trends provided some indication of different stakeholder types utilizing Gulf TREE with different frequencies and for different purposes. Further, the study identified variability among sectors for how Gulf TREE was integrated into their existing suite of tools, with federal government and Sea Grant stakeholders using Gulf TREE as their primary resource versus academia and non-profit who appeared to have alternatives on which they continued to rely. Finally, this study identified that usability and usefulness may not be good indicators of tool adoption. This study expands the limited peer-reviewed assessments of a climate resilience tool's use. Continuing to develop this body of knowledge will allow for a better understanding of what constitutes a successful or effective climate resilience tool, how to improve current and future climate resilience

With coastlines becoming increasingly urbanised worldwide, the economic risk pos... more With coastlines becoming increasingly urbanised worldwide, the economic risk posed by storm surges to coastal communities has never been greater. Given the financial and ecological costs of manmade coastal defences, the past few years have seen growing interest in the effectiveness of natural coastal &#8220;defences&#8221; in reducing the risk of flooding to coastal properties, but estimating their actual economic value in reducing storm surge risk remains a challenging subject.In this study, we estimate the value of mangroves in reducing annual losses to property from storm surges along a large stretch of coastline in Florida (USA), by employing a catastrophe modelling approach widely used in the insurance industry. We use a hydrodynamic coastal flood model coupled to a property loss model and a large property exposure dataset to estimate annual economic losses from hurricane-driven storm surges in Collier County, a hurricane-prone part of Florida. We then estimate the impact that removing mangroves in the region would have on average annual losses (AAL) caused by coastal flooding. We find that mangroves reduce AAL to properties behind them by over 25%, and that these benefits are distributed very heterogeneously along the coastline. Mangrove presence can also act to enhance the storm surge risk in areas where development has occurred seaward of mangroves.In addition to looking at annual losses, we also focus on the storm surge caused by a specific severe event in Florida, based on Hurricane Irma (2017), and we estimate that existing mangroves reduced economic property damage by hundreds of millions of USD, and reduced coastal flooding for hundreds of thousands of people.Together these studies aim to financially quantify some of the risk reduction services provided by natural defences in terms of reducing the cost of coastal flooding, and show that these services can be included in a catastrophe modelling framework commonly used in the insurance industry.

Environmental Hazards, 2020

Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017

Economic losses from floods along the Gulf of Mexico have triggered much debate on different stra... more Economic losses from floods along the Gulf of Mexico have triggered much debate on different strategies to reduce risk and future adverse impacts from storm events. While much of the discussion has focused on structural engineering approaches to flood mitigation, increasing emphasis is being placed on avoidance strategies, such as the protection of undeveloped open spaces. This study leverage previous work to examine undeveloped lands across approximately 2600 watersheds along the Gulf of Mexico. Different types and spatial configurations of naturally-occurring open spaces are statistically evaluated across landscapes for their effects on reducing observed flood losses (economic damage to building and/or contents) under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) occurring from 2008 through 2014. Statistical models isolate the influence of natural open spaces, while controlling for multiple socioeconomic, environmental, and development-based local conditions. Results estimate the dollar-savings in flood losses by maintaining open spaces over time. This study provides quantitative guidance on which types and spatial characteristics of open spaces are most effective in reducing the adverse impacts from floods. Findings indicate that large, expansive, and continuous patches of naturally-occurring open spaces most effectively reduce losses from flood events.

Ocean & Coastal Management, 2018