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Papers by Claudia Tebaldi
Climatic Change, 2015
Focusing on factors that cause relative sea-level (RSL) rise to differ from the global mean, we e... more Focusing on factors that cause relative sea-level (RSL) rise to differ from the global mean, we evaluate RSL trajectories for North Carolina, United States, in the context of tide gauge and geological sea-level proxy records spanning the last ∼11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (∼7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and decreased over time. During the Common Era before the 19th century, RSL rise (∼0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ∼0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P = 0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in ≥ 2, 900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P = 0.90) to rise by 42-132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P > 0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Because sea level responds slowly to climate forcing, RSL rise in North Carolina to 2050 varies by <6 cm between pathways. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current '1-in-100 year' flood is expected at Wilmington in ∼30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.
Issues in the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture, 2003
Statistical methodology is devised to model time series of daily weather at individual locations ... more Statistical methodology is devised to model time series of daily weather at individual locations in the southeastern U.S. conditional on patterns in large-scale atmosphere-ocean circulation. In this way, weather information on an appropriate temporal and spatial scale for input to crop-climate models can be generated, consistent with the relationship between circulation and temporally and/or spatially aggregated climate data (an exercise sometimes termed 'downscaling'). The Bermuda High, a subtropical Atlantic circulation feature, is found to have the strongest contemporaneous correlation with seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation in the Southeast (in particular, stronger than for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon). Stochastic models for time series of daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation amount are fitted conditional on an index indicating the average position of the Bermuda High. For precipitation, a multi-site approach involving a statistical technique known as 'borrowing strength' is applied, constraining the relationship between daily precipitation and the Bermuda High index to be spatially the same. In winter (the time of greatest correlation), higher daily maximum and minimum temperature means and higher daily probability of occurrence of precipitation are found when there is an easterly shift in the average position of the Bermuda High. Methods for determining aggregative properties of these stochastic models for daily weather (e.g., variance and spatial correlation of seasonal total precipitation) are also described, so that their performance in representing low frequency variations can be readily evaluated.
We have revised the method for estimating the uncertainty in climate system properties from Fores... more We have revised the method for estimating the uncertainty in climate system properties from Forest et al. (2002). To apply a fully Bayesian approach, we first approximate the response of the MIT 2DLO climate model with a statistical model that provides a response surface in the uncertain parameter space. The three-dimensional parameter space is defined as climate sensitivity (S), rate
Environmental Research Letters, 2014
Climate Extremes and Society, 2008
Purpose. Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) has been a standard procedure in themanagement of ... more Purpose. Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) has been a standard procedure in themanagement of breast cancer. In a patient with a clinically negative axilla, ALND is performedprimarily for staging purposes, to guide adjuvant treatment. Recently, the routine use of ALNDhas been questioned because the results may not change adjuvant systemic therapy and/or thesurvival benefit of a change in adjuvant therapy
Nature Climate Change, 2012
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | AUGUST 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange O ur intention h... more NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | AUGUST 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange O ur intention here is to relate the rate of future global temperature change from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios to possible future sealevel rise to draw attention to the under-appreciated differences involved with temperature mitigation versus sea-level rise mitigation. Given the huge uncertainties involved with ice-sheet stability -which would directly affect how much sea-level rise could occur and how fast -and the questions regarding appropriateness of the different methods used to derive future sea-level rise 1 , we provide illustrative ranges of possible future sea-level rise to highlight the mitigation problem.
Journal of Climate, 2004
Ensemble simulations are run with a global coupled climate model employing five forcing agents th... more Ensemble simulations are run with a global coupled climate model employing five forcing agents that influence the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature during the twentieth century. Two are natural (volcanoes and solar) and the others are anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone (stratospheric and tropospheric), and direct effect of sulfate aerosols). In addition to the five individual
Over tha past few years, methods for quantifying uncertainty in regional climate change have seen... more Over tha past few years, methods for quantifying uncertainty in regional climate change have seen an upswing in development, and this was greatly facilitated by the creation of a relatively large multi-member ensemble of coupled climate model runs for the Fourth Assessment of the IPCC. Usually the rationale for developing such probabilistic methods is for use by impacts researchers, policy makers, and resource managers, to aid in their decision making. While these developments have been welcome, it is clear that probabilisitc information developed in a Bayesian framework, alone will not suffice for providng levels of confidence in the future projections. While some of the methods have attempted to weight the members of multi-model ensembles by evaluating how well the models reproduce current climate, so far these methods have been overly simplistic. It may well be that qualitative information regarding the model's reproduction of critical processes that determine the climate of a particular region needs to be considered along with probabilistic information. We discuss how these different types of information (qualitative process-based and probability density functions) could be combined to provide a more complete assessment of how confident we should be regarding regional cliamte change. measure of uncertainty for regional scale climate change.
Climatic Change, 2015
Focusing on factors that cause relative sea-level (RSL) rise to differ from the global mean, we e... more Focusing on factors that cause relative sea-level (RSL) rise to differ from the global mean, we evaluate RSL trajectories for North Carolina, United States, in the context of tide gauge and geological sea-level proxy records spanning the last ∼11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (∼7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and decreased over time. During the Common Era before the 19th century, RSL rise (∼0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ∼0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P = 0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in ≥ 2, 900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P = 0.90) to rise by 42-132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P > 0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Because sea level responds slowly to climate forcing, RSL rise in North Carolina to 2050 varies by <6 cm between pathways. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current '1-in-100 year' flood is expected at Wilmington in ∼30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.
Issues in the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture, 2003
Statistical methodology is devised to model time series of daily weather at individual locations ... more Statistical methodology is devised to model time series of daily weather at individual locations in the southeastern U.S. conditional on patterns in large-scale atmosphere-ocean circulation. In this way, weather information on an appropriate temporal and spatial scale for input to crop-climate models can be generated, consistent with the relationship between circulation and temporally and/or spatially aggregated climate data (an exercise sometimes termed 'downscaling'). The Bermuda High, a subtropical Atlantic circulation feature, is found to have the strongest contemporaneous correlation with seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation in the Southeast (in particular, stronger than for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon). Stochastic models for time series of daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation amount are fitted conditional on an index indicating the average position of the Bermuda High. For precipitation, a multi-site approach involving a statistical technique known as 'borrowing strength' is applied, constraining the relationship between daily precipitation and the Bermuda High index to be spatially the same. In winter (the time of greatest correlation), higher daily maximum and minimum temperature means and higher daily probability of occurrence of precipitation are found when there is an easterly shift in the average position of the Bermuda High. Methods for determining aggregative properties of these stochastic models for daily weather (e.g., variance and spatial correlation of seasonal total precipitation) are also described, so that their performance in representing low frequency variations can be readily evaluated.
We have revised the method for estimating the uncertainty in climate system properties from Fores... more We have revised the method for estimating the uncertainty in climate system properties from Forest et al. (2002). To apply a fully Bayesian approach, we first approximate the response of the MIT 2DLO climate model with a statistical model that provides a response surface in the uncertain parameter space. The three-dimensional parameter space is defined as climate sensitivity (S), rate
Environmental Research Letters, 2014
Climate Extremes and Society, 2008
Purpose. Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) has been a standard procedure in themanagement of ... more Purpose. Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) has been a standard procedure in themanagement of breast cancer. In a patient with a clinically negative axilla, ALND is performedprimarily for staging purposes, to guide adjuvant treatment. Recently, the routine use of ALNDhas been questioned because the results may not change adjuvant systemic therapy and/or thesurvival benefit of a change in adjuvant therapy
Nature Climate Change, 2012
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | AUGUST 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange O ur intention h... more NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | AUGUST 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange O ur intention here is to relate the rate of future global temperature change from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios to possible future sealevel rise to draw attention to the under-appreciated differences involved with temperature mitigation versus sea-level rise mitigation. Given the huge uncertainties involved with ice-sheet stability -which would directly affect how much sea-level rise could occur and how fast -and the questions regarding appropriateness of the different methods used to derive future sea-level rise 1 , we provide illustrative ranges of possible future sea-level rise to highlight the mitigation problem.
Journal of Climate, 2004
Ensemble simulations are run with a global coupled climate model employing five forcing agents th... more Ensemble simulations are run with a global coupled climate model employing five forcing agents that influence the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature during the twentieth century. Two are natural (volcanoes and solar) and the others are anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone (stratospheric and tropospheric), and direct effect of sulfate aerosols). In addition to the five individual
Over tha past few years, methods for quantifying uncertainty in regional climate change have seen... more Over tha past few years, methods for quantifying uncertainty in regional climate change have seen an upswing in development, and this was greatly facilitated by the creation of a relatively large multi-member ensemble of coupled climate model runs for the Fourth Assessment of the IPCC. Usually the rationale for developing such probabilistic methods is for use by impacts researchers, policy makers, and resource managers, to aid in their decision making. While these developments have been welcome, it is clear that probabilisitc information developed in a Bayesian framework, alone will not suffice for providng levels of confidence in the future projections. While some of the methods have attempted to weight the members of multi-model ensembles by evaluating how well the models reproduce current climate, so far these methods have been overly simplistic. It may well be that qualitative information regarding the model's reproduction of critical processes that determine the climate of a particular region needs to be considered along with probabilistic information. We discuss how these different types of information (qualitative process-based and probability density functions) could be combined to provide a more complete assessment of how confident we should be regarding regional cliamte change. measure of uncertainty for regional scale climate change.