Marco Follador - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Marco Follador
This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commissio... more This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for map... more The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for mapping flood susceptibility and the gradients of hydrological-edaphic-ecological processes. This paper extends the HAND model by combining the vertical and horizontal distances in relation to the nearest drainage to generate the indicators of floodable cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage. The HAND, cross-sectional area, conventional slope, and slope to the nearest drainage indicators are combined for distinct analyses of flood susceptibility mapping in the Lucas do Rio Verde region, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. The indicators of cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage were spatially consistent with the expected hydrogeomorphological characteristics. The maps based on floodable cross-sectional area, when compared to those based on the HAND model, were more restrictive in areas further from watercourses, especially when combined with slope classes.
Tropical deforestation, as an important factor in global change, is a topic that recently has rec... more Tropical deforestation, as an important factor in global change, is a topic that recently has received considerable attention. GIS-based spatially explicit models that intend to predict the location of land use/cover change (LUCC) can help scientists and policy makers to understand, anticipate and possibly prevent the adverse effects of land-use change. There are many approaches and softwares to model LUCC such as CLUES , DINAMICA GEOMOD and IDRISI. This study intends to compare these four modelling approaches. First, a review of methods and tools employed by each software to carry out the simulation was done. Then, the four packages were applied to a "virtual" case which involves a map of deforestation, which comprises two types of deforestation (forest to shifting agriculture and forest to pasture lands), along with several explanatory variables (drivers). Deforestation was modelled using the four approaches and the output maps were compared.
This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European ... more This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.
Durante gli ultimi decenni il Geoprocessamento ha rappresentato uno strumento utile, ed a volte i... more Durante gli ultimi decenni il Geoprocessamento ha rappresentato uno strumento utile, ed a volte indispensabile, per caratterizzare vegetazione, suolo ed altri materiali sulla superficie della Pianeta [Heming, 1996]. Le informazioni che arrivano dai satelliti sono facilmente analizzate e processate per evidenziare gli attributi topografici o geo-morfologici di un paesaggio [Bue et al. 2006], oppure per riconoscere faglie e fratture [Chuvieco, 2002; Zumpreskel et al., 2000; Sabins, 1987 and 1999;] dove si riscontra un¿alta probabilità di trovare depositi minerali intrusivi. In altri casi si ricorre ad operazioni di trattamento delle immagini per individuare affioramenti di rocce alterate idrotermicamente, riconducibili a depositi sotterranei. Negli ultimi anni le grandi compagnie di estrazione mineraria hanno ampliamente fatto ricorso ad un uso combinato di modelli numerici predittivi (basati sui pesi dell¿evidenza, reti neurali, etc.) e SIG per individuare aree con elevata potenzialità mineraria [Bernard et al., 2007; Zhou et al., 2007; Parson et al., 2006; Chung et al., 2002; Bonham-Carter, 1994]. Partendo dalle informazioni multispettrali raccolte dal sensore ETM di Landsat7 (P21 R80, 03/08/2002) cercheremo di differenziare le caratteristiche litologiche di una regione test in Minas Gerais, Brasile, usando semplici operazioni di processamento d¿immagine, calibrate con i dati raccolti in situ. La densa vegetazione di mata altlantica, le micro-pedologie locali, le costruzioni ed i cambiamenti di uso del suolo legati alle attività antropiche, rappresentano importanti fattori di confusione nell¿analisi spettrale dei minerali studiati, nel determinarne l¿ubicazione e le relative proporzioni. I risultati ottenuti sono stati validati attraverso un lavoro di campo, scegliendo alcuni siti rappresentativi all¿interno dell¿area in esame.JRC.H.2-Climate chang
Climate Change Management, 2017
Belo Horizonte is one of the major cities in Brazil and, as other cities in Latin America, it fac... more Belo Horizonte is one of the major cities in Brazil and, as other cities in Latin America, it faces climate change-related challenges such as floods and health issues. In order to assist the city in the understanding and preparation for impacts, the present study comprised the assessment of the climate vulnerability of Belo Horizonte. This study used an integrated GIS computational platform, named MOVE, which evaluated and provided practical answers for the management of climate vulnerability. A climate change vulnerability index was calculated from three component indexes: (1) exposure; (2) sensitivity; and (3) adaptive capacity. Each sub-index was determined by georeferenciated data from variables such as climate (e.g. precipitation pattern), socio-demographic characteristics, available infrastructure, education and warning systems. A climate vulnerability map of the city was produced, showing vulnerability hotspots and their causes. The major climate change-related challenges identified in Belo Horizonte are landslides, floods, dengue and heat waves. This information is fundamental for prioritizing investment in adaptation measures. This study will be the basis of a comprehensive adaptation plan for the city aiming the increase of the climatic resilience of the population, economy and environment.
Http Www Theses Fr, Mar 7, 2008
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2013
Spatially explicit land-use models simulate the patterns of change on the landscape in response t... more Spatially explicit land-use models simulate the patterns of change on the landscape in response to coupled humaneecological dynamics. As these models become more complex involving larger than ever data sets, the need to improve calibration techniques as well as methods that test model accuracy also increases. To this end, we developed a Genetic Algorithm tool and applied it to optimize probability maps of deforestation generated from the Weights of Evidence method for 12 case-study sites in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that the Genetic Algorithm tool, after being constrained during the reproduction process within a specified range and trend of variation of the Weights of Evidence coefficients, was able to overcome overfitting and improve validation fitness scores with acceptable computational costs. In addition to modeling deforestation, the Genetic Algorithm tool coupled with the Weights of Evidence method is flexible enough to embrace a variety of models as well as their specific fitness functions, thus offering a practical way to optimize the performance of land-use change models.
The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for map... more The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for mapping flood susceptibility and the gradients of hydrological-edaphic-ecological processes. This paper extends the HAND model by combining the vertical and horizontal distances in relation to the nearest drainage to generate the indicators of floodable cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage. The HAND, cross-sectional area, conventional slope, and slope to the nearest drainage indicators are combined for distinct analyses of flood susceptibility mapping in the Lucas do Rio Verde region, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. The indicators of cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage were spatially consistent with the expected hydrogeomorphological characteristics. The maps based on floodable cross-sectional area, when compared to those based on the HAND model, were more restrictive in areas further from watercourses, especially when combined with slope classes.
This report is an attempt to develop a modelling framework integrating different sectoral stand-a... more This report is an attempt to develop a modelling framework integrating different sectoral stand-alone models used at the JRC for policy impact assessment in the fields of agriculture, forestry, land use change and energy. The proposed quantitative framework should improve the capability of assessing greenhouse gas emissions and removals resulting from complex interactions between the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors, and facilitate the analysis of policy scenarios relevant for a sustainable and carbon-neutral European economy. Four models are considered, for which a revised model specification and harmonization of relevant databases and model parameters is needed. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) Modelling System is a widely used large-scale multi-commodity agricultural economic model. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment modelling platform for BioEconomy and Ecosystem Services (LUISA-BEES) is primarily used for t...
L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali... more L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali, sta cambiando il tradizionale approccio alle problematiche ambientali e di rischio. Il continuo miglioramento delle capacita di elaborazione dei computer facilita l’utilizzo e la risoluzione di metodi numerici basati su una discretizzazione spazio-temporale che permette una modellizzazione predittiva di sistemi reali complessi, riproducendo l’evoluzione dei loro patterns spaziali ed calcolando il grado di precisione della simulazione. In questa tesi presentiamo una applicazione di differenti metodi predittivi (Geomatico, Reti Neurali, Land Cover Modeler e Dinamica EGO) in un’area test del Peten, Guatemala. Durante gli ultimi decenni questa regione, inclusa nella Riserva di Biosfera Maya, ha conosciuto una rapida crescita demografica ed un’incontrollata pressione sulle sue risorse naturali. L’area test puo essere suddivisa in sotto-regioni caratterizzate da differenti dinamiche di uso d...
Floods, landslides, and mudslides are frequent phenomena in Rio de Janeiro state (RJ). In the pas... more Floods, landslides, and mudslides are frequent phenomena in Rio de Janeiro state (RJ). In the past decades, several catastrophic events have occurred and caused severe damages to people and infrastructure. In contrast, the persistent droughts that affected Southeast Brazil between 2014 and 2017 are phenomena that were not known earlier – at least in such frequency and intensity. Climate scenarios predict that extreme events will further increase in the future leading to increased heavy rainfall events on the one hand and longer dry spells on the other. In this chapter, we provide an overview on the different types of natural hazards, their occurrence (frequency) and intensity, and historical disasters caused by these hazards in RJ. Furthermore, we reconstruct in how far climate variability and human impact (in particular deforestation) affected the occurrence of hydrometeorological hazards in the Holocene. Based on the analysis of historical trends and modeling outcomes under differ...
Scientific Reports, 2021
The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU ... more The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil’s sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Meanwhile, in the EU, certain conventional biofuels face stricter controls, whilst uncertainty surrounding the commercialisation of more sustainable advanced-biofuels renders bioethanol as a short- to medium-term fix. This paper examines Brazil’s land-use changes and associated greenhouse gas emissions arising from an EU driven ethanol import policy and projections for other 13 biocommodities. Results suggest that Brazil’s sugarcane could satisfy growing ethanol demand and comply with EU environmental criteria, since almost all sugarcane expansion is expected to occur on long-established pasturelands in the South and Midwest. However, expansion of sugarcane is also driven by competition for viable lands with other relevant commodities, mainly soy and beef. As a r...
Climate Change Management, 2017
The lack of information on the climate-related vulnerability of territories, populations, and pro... more The lack of information on the climate-related vulnerability of territories, populations, and productive sectors in Brazil—and the ecosystems that they are dependent upon—is a serious constraint to identifying possible strategies for local and regional adaptation to climate change. In order to mainstream adaptation efforts in sectors’ planning and budget demands, the existing knowledge gap between what climate models project and what impacts this might have at the local level must be filled. This is particularly significant in the Atlantic Forest region, where over 70% of Brazil’s population currently resides. In the context of the Biodiversity and Climate Change project in the Atlantic Rainforest, this article focusses on the main results of a spatially explicit climate-impact model, which forecasts trends in soil humidity, natural vegetation, agro-climatic zoning, erosion, flooding, landslides, and animal disease vectors, according to optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios until 2100. This study is intended as an advisory tool to support the definition of robust and proactive adaptation actions for several sectors in Brazil, framed into the new National Adaptation Plan.
This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commissio... more This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for map... more The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for mapping flood susceptibility and the gradients of hydrological-edaphic-ecological processes. This paper extends the HAND model by combining the vertical and horizontal distances in relation to the nearest drainage to generate the indicators of floodable cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage. The HAND, cross-sectional area, conventional slope, and slope to the nearest drainage indicators are combined for distinct analyses of flood susceptibility mapping in the Lucas do Rio Verde region, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. The indicators of cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage were spatially consistent with the expected hydrogeomorphological characteristics. The maps based on floodable cross-sectional area, when compared to those based on the HAND model, were more restrictive in areas further from watercourses, especially when combined with slope classes.
Tropical deforestation, as an important factor in global change, is a topic that recently has rec... more Tropical deforestation, as an important factor in global change, is a topic that recently has received considerable attention. GIS-based spatially explicit models that intend to predict the location of land use/cover change (LUCC) can help scientists and policy makers to understand, anticipate and possibly prevent the adverse effects of land-use change. There are many approaches and softwares to model LUCC such as CLUES , DINAMICA GEOMOD and IDRISI. This study intends to compare these four modelling approaches. First, a review of methods and tools employed by each software to carry out the simulation was done. Then, the four packages were applied to a "virtual" case which involves a map of deforestation, which comprises two types of deforestation (forest to shifting agriculture and forest to pasture lands), along with several explanatory variables (drivers). Deforestation was modelled using the four approaches and the output maps were compared.
This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European ... more This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.
Durante gli ultimi decenni il Geoprocessamento ha rappresentato uno strumento utile, ed a volte i... more Durante gli ultimi decenni il Geoprocessamento ha rappresentato uno strumento utile, ed a volte indispensabile, per caratterizzare vegetazione, suolo ed altri materiali sulla superficie della Pianeta [Heming, 1996]. Le informazioni che arrivano dai satelliti sono facilmente analizzate e processate per evidenziare gli attributi topografici o geo-morfologici di un paesaggio [Bue et al. 2006], oppure per riconoscere faglie e fratture [Chuvieco, 2002; Zumpreskel et al., 2000; Sabins, 1987 and 1999;] dove si riscontra un¿alta probabilità di trovare depositi minerali intrusivi. In altri casi si ricorre ad operazioni di trattamento delle immagini per individuare affioramenti di rocce alterate idrotermicamente, riconducibili a depositi sotterranei. Negli ultimi anni le grandi compagnie di estrazione mineraria hanno ampliamente fatto ricorso ad un uso combinato di modelli numerici predittivi (basati sui pesi dell¿evidenza, reti neurali, etc.) e SIG per individuare aree con elevata potenzialità mineraria [Bernard et al., 2007; Zhou et al., 2007; Parson et al., 2006; Chung et al., 2002; Bonham-Carter, 1994]. Partendo dalle informazioni multispettrali raccolte dal sensore ETM di Landsat7 (P21 R80, 03/08/2002) cercheremo di differenziare le caratteristiche litologiche di una regione test in Minas Gerais, Brasile, usando semplici operazioni di processamento d¿immagine, calibrate con i dati raccolti in situ. La densa vegetazione di mata altlantica, le micro-pedologie locali, le costruzioni ed i cambiamenti di uso del suolo legati alle attività antropiche, rappresentano importanti fattori di confusione nell¿analisi spettrale dei minerali studiati, nel determinarne l¿ubicazione e le relative proporzioni. I risultati ottenuti sono stati validati attraverso un lavoro di campo, scegliendo alcuni siti rappresentativi all¿interno dell¿area in esame.JRC.H.2-Climate chang
Climate Change Management, 2017
Belo Horizonte is one of the major cities in Brazil and, as other cities in Latin America, it fac... more Belo Horizonte is one of the major cities in Brazil and, as other cities in Latin America, it faces climate change-related challenges such as floods and health issues. In order to assist the city in the understanding and preparation for impacts, the present study comprised the assessment of the climate vulnerability of Belo Horizonte. This study used an integrated GIS computational platform, named MOVE, which evaluated and provided practical answers for the management of climate vulnerability. A climate change vulnerability index was calculated from three component indexes: (1) exposure; (2) sensitivity; and (3) adaptive capacity. Each sub-index was determined by georeferenciated data from variables such as climate (e.g. precipitation pattern), socio-demographic characteristics, available infrastructure, education and warning systems. A climate vulnerability map of the city was produced, showing vulnerability hotspots and their causes. The major climate change-related challenges identified in Belo Horizonte are landslides, floods, dengue and heat waves. This information is fundamental for prioritizing investment in adaptation measures. This study will be the basis of a comprehensive adaptation plan for the city aiming the increase of the climatic resilience of the population, economy and environment.
Http Www Theses Fr, Mar 7, 2008
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2013
Spatially explicit land-use models simulate the patterns of change on the landscape in response t... more Spatially explicit land-use models simulate the patterns of change on the landscape in response to coupled humaneecological dynamics. As these models become more complex involving larger than ever data sets, the need to improve calibration techniques as well as methods that test model accuracy also increases. To this end, we developed a Genetic Algorithm tool and applied it to optimize probability maps of deforestation generated from the Weights of Evidence method for 12 case-study sites in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that the Genetic Algorithm tool, after being constrained during the reproduction process within a specified range and trend of variation of the Weights of Evidence coefficients, was able to overcome overfitting and improve validation fitness scores with acceptable computational costs. In addition to modeling deforestation, the Genetic Algorithm tool coupled with the Weights of Evidence method is flexible enough to embrace a variety of models as well as their specific fitness functions, thus offering a practical way to optimize the performance of land-use change models.
The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for map... more The HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model has been applied as a robust indicator for mapping flood susceptibility and the gradients of hydrological-edaphic-ecological processes. This paper extends the HAND model by combining the vertical and horizontal distances in relation to the nearest drainage to generate the indicators of floodable cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage. The HAND, cross-sectional area, conventional slope, and slope to the nearest drainage indicators are combined for distinct analyses of flood susceptibility mapping in the Lucas do Rio Verde region, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. The indicators of cross-sectional area and slope to the nearest drainage were spatially consistent with the expected hydrogeomorphological characteristics. The maps based on floodable cross-sectional area, when compared to those based on the HAND model, were more restrictive in areas further from watercourses, especially when combined with slope classes.
This report is an attempt to develop a modelling framework integrating different sectoral stand-a... more This report is an attempt to develop a modelling framework integrating different sectoral stand-alone models used at the JRC for policy impact assessment in the fields of agriculture, forestry, land use change and energy. The proposed quantitative framework should improve the capability of assessing greenhouse gas emissions and removals resulting from complex interactions between the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors, and facilitate the analysis of policy scenarios relevant for a sustainable and carbon-neutral European economy. Four models are considered, for which a revised model specification and harmonization of relevant databases and model parameters is needed. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) Modelling System is a widely used large-scale multi-commodity agricultural economic model. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment modelling platform for BioEconomy and Ecosystem Services (LUISA-BEES) is primarily used for t...
L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali... more L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali, sta cambiando il tradizionale approccio alle problematiche ambientali e di rischio. Il continuo miglioramento delle capacita di elaborazione dei computer facilita l’utilizzo e la risoluzione di metodi numerici basati su una discretizzazione spazio-temporale che permette una modellizzazione predittiva di sistemi reali complessi, riproducendo l’evoluzione dei loro patterns spaziali ed calcolando il grado di precisione della simulazione. In questa tesi presentiamo una applicazione di differenti metodi predittivi (Geomatico, Reti Neurali, Land Cover Modeler e Dinamica EGO) in un’area test del Peten, Guatemala. Durante gli ultimi decenni questa regione, inclusa nella Riserva di Biosfera Maya, ha conosciuto una rapida crescita demografica ed un’incontrollata pressione sulle sue risorse naturali. L’area test puo essere suddivisa in sotto-regioni caratterizzate da differenti dinamiche di uso d...
Floods, landslides, and mudslides are frequent phenomena in Rio de Janeiro state (RJ). In the pas... more Floods, landslides, and mudslides are frequent phenomena in Rio de Janeiro state (RJ). In the past decades, several catastrophic events have occurred and caused severe damages to people and infrastructure. In contrast, the persistent droughts that affected Southeast Brazil between 2014 and 2017 are phenomena that were not known earlier – at least in such frequency and intensity. Climate scenarios predict that extreme events will further increase in the future leading to increased heavy rainfall events on the one hand and longer dry spells on the other. In this chapter, we provide an overview on the different types of natural hazards, their occurrence (frequency) and intensity, and historical disasters caused by these hazards in RJ. Furthermore, we reconstruct in how far climate variability and human impact (in particular deforestation) affected the occurrence of hydrometeorological hazards in the Holocene. Based on the analysis of historical trends and modeling outcomes under differ...
Scientific Reports, 2021
The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU ... more The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil’s sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Meanwhile, in the EU, certain conventional biofuels face stricter controls, whilst uncertainty surrounding the commercialisation of more sustainable advanced-biofuels renders bioethanol as a short- to medium-term fix. This paper examines Brazil’s land-use changes and associated greenhouse gas emissions arising from an EU driven ethanol import policy and projections for other 13 biocommodities. Results suggest that Brazil’s sugarcane could satisfy growing ethanol demand and comply with EU environmental criteria, since almost all sugarcane expansion is expected to occur on long-established pasturelands in the South and Midwest. However, expansion of sugarcane is also driven by competition for viable lands with other relevant commodities, mainly soy and beef. As a r...
Climate Change Management, 2017
The lack of information on the climate-related vulnerability of territories, populations, and pro... more The lack of information on the climate-related vulnerability of territories, populations, and productive sectors in Brazil—and the ecosystems that they are dependent upon—is a serious constraint to identifying possible strategies for local and regional adaptation to climate change. In order to mainstream adaptation efforts in sectors’ planning and budget demands, the existing knowledge gap between what climate models project and what impacts this might have at the local level must be filled. This is particularly significant in the Atlantic Forest region, where over 70% of Brazil’s population currently resides. In the context of the Biodiversity and Climate Change project in the Atlantic Rainforest, this article focusses on the main results of a spatially explicit climate-impact model, which forecasts trends in soil humidity, natural vegetation, agro-climatic zoning, erosion, flooding, landslides, and animal disease vectors, according to optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios until 2100. This study is intended as an advisory tool to support the definition of robust and proactive adaptation actions for several sectors in Brazil, framed into the new National Adaptation Plan.