Güzin Bayar - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Güzin Bayar

DergiPark (Istanbul University), Feb 1, 2024

Corruption is an important social and ethical problem; fight with it requires changes in values, ... more Corruption is an important social and ethical problem; fight with it requires changes in values, norms and behavioral patterns of the society. This is usually a long and difficult process. Decades should pass to change deep values of a society. In the mean time, it is possible to combat corruption by changing incentive structures in the economy. If deep causes of the problem are analyzed carefully, a new system of governance can be established, such that, even most opportunist individuals do not find getting involved in corrupt practices profitable. Aim of this thesis is to examine characteristics of the system providing a fertile environment for corruption and to figure out factors stimulating corrupt transactions using game theoretical models. The first two models examine corruption as a kind of transaction between the briber and the bribee. In the models, it is shown that intermediaries sector occur from the profit maximization behavior of agents. This sector, by establishing lon...

Argumenta Oeconomica, 2021

Poland, although a few years ago was indicated among the countries that were in danger of falling... more Poland, although a few years ago was indicated among the countries that were in danger of falling into the middle income trap, nowadays in most studies is counted among the rich countries. Poland was examined in this article as a successful case of "escaping from middle income trap". This article searched for the keys to the success story of Poland among its trade patterns. In the analysis the author used the product space approach first developed by Hidalgo et al. (2007), and added to it market analysis, mainly using the growth-share matrix of the Boston Consulting Group, first formulated by Henderson (1970). The results show that Poland is achieving a healthy transformation towards medium technology automotive and engineering products and some high technology products. To improve its position in world markets, Poland should also carefully examine the market structure of its exports.

Reel kur cok sayida makroekonomik degiskeni etkileyen onemli bir gostergedir. Bu calismada Turk L... more Reel kur cok sayida makroekonomik degiskeni etkileyen onemli bir gostergedir. Bu calismada Turk Lirasi reel kurunun uzun donemli denge degeri ve bu denge degerinden ne kadar uzakta oldugu ekonometrik olarak incelenmistir. Tamamen Degistirilmis En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (FMOLS) kullanilarak olusturulan uzun vadeli modelde, reel kur bagimli degisken olarak ve “Turkiye ve OECD Ulkelerinin Goreli Birim Is Gucu Maliyetleri”, “Turkiye’ye Yurt Disindan Sermaye Akimlari”, “Turkiye’nin GSYH’si”, “Dis Ticaret Hacmi/GSYH Orani” bagimsiz degiskenler olarak alinmistir. Regresyon analizinin sonuclari, Balassa-Samuelson etkisini dogrulamaktadir; Turkiye’nin buyume oraninin artmasi reel kura degerlenme yonunde etki etmektedir. Dis Ticaret Hacminde meydana gelen artis TL’yi deger kazandirma yonunde etkilemektedir. Turkiye’ye yurt disindan sermaye girislerinin TL’de degerlenme baskisi yarattigi gorulmektedir. OECD ulkelerinin Turkiye’ye goreli olarak is gucu maliyetlerinin artisi reel kura deger kaybe...

Bu calismada, Turkiye’nin sanayi urunleri ithalatinda en buyuk paya sahip bolge olan Avrupa Birli... more Bu calismada, Turkiye’nin sanayi urunleri ithalatinda en buyuk paya sahip bolge olan Avrupa Birligi ulkelerinden yapilan sanayi urunleri ithalatinin talep denklemi ile toplam sanayi ithalati talep denklemi panel veri yontemleri kullanilarak karsilastirilmistir. Tahmin yontemi Breitung iki basamakli tahmin edicidir (two step estimator). Tahmin sonuclari, Turkiye’nin AB ulkelerinden ithalati ile dunyadan ithalatinin cesitli benzer ve farkli ozelliklere sahip oldugunu gostermektedir. Beklendigi gibi GSYH ve yatirimlar hem AB ulkelerinden, hem dunyadan ithalati benzer oranlarda artirmaktadir. 2008 krizinde Turkiye’nin AB ulkelerinden ithalati diger faktorlerin etkileri arindirildiginda dahi dusmustur. Ithalat fiyat gostergelerindeki artislar her iki denklemde de ithalat degerini artirmaktadir. Bu durum, fiyat artislari karsinda Turkiye’nin ithalatini miktar bazinda ayni oranda dusurememesinden kaynaklanmaktadir. Tuketim harcamalarindaki artis AB’den ithalati etkileyen bir faktor degilke...

Antik caglardan beri hemen her toplumda degisik derecelerde yolsuzluk gorulmustur. Yolsuzlugun ek... more Antik caglardan beri hemen her toplumda degisik derecelerde yolsuzluk gorulmustur. Yolsuzlugun ekonomik buyume ve kalkinmayi olumsuz etkiledigi, yatirimlari caydirdigi, verimsizliklere ve kaynak israfina yol actigi, gelir dagilimini bozdugu ve demokrasi ve ahlaki zedeledigi konusunda literaturde neredeyse gorus birligi bulunmaktadir. Yolsuzluk icin uygun bir ortam hazirlayan sistemin niteliklerini incelemek ve yolsuzlugu kolaylastiran faktorleri belirlemek, sebep sonuc iliskilerini incelemek sorunun cozumunde ilk ve en onemli basamaktir. Bu makalede, Turkiye’de yolsuzlugun muhtemel sebeplerini ortaya koymak uzere regresyon analizi yapilmistir. Regresyon analizinin sonuclari, Turkiye’nin ekonomik acidan disa acilmasiyla yolsuzluk vakalarinin arttigini gostermektedir. Ayrica enflasyondaki artis ve issizlikteki artis da yolsuzlugu artiran faktorlerdir. Diger taraftan, devletin ekonomideki agirliginin ve devletin personel harcamalarinin yolsuzluk uzerinde anlamli bir etkisinin bulunmadi...

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2020

In this study, a sectoral export determination equation of Turkey is estimated using a very detai... more In this study, a sectoral export determination equation of Turkey is estimated using a very detailed panel data of 1,029 sectors in SITC Rev 3 four digit level for the period 1995–2015. In addition to standard export determination variables; the variables showing technology and sophistication level of the export products of Turkey were included among the independent variables; using both some traditional classification measures (Lall (2000), Oxford Development Studies, 2, 100–109) and a new measure developed by Hidalgo et al., (2009), “The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(26): 10570–10575. Moreover, also some indicators of competitiveness in world markets were included among independent variables. Method of estimation is augmented mean group, which takes into consideration cross sectional dependencies and parameter heterogeneities. Results of the regression suggest that product quality and design are becoming more important...

Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2016

Türkiye, üst orta gelir grubunda, henüz orta gelir tuzağında olmayan ancak yakın zamanda orta gel... more Türkiye, üst orta gelir grubunda, henüz orta gelir tuzağında olmayan ancak yakın zamanda orta gelir tuzağına düşme riski altında olan bir ülkedir. Bir ülkenin yüksek gelir seviyesine çıkabilmesi günümüz dünyasında üretiminin katma değerini artırabilmesinden, teknoloji seviyesini yükseltebilmesinden ve uluslararası piyasalarda yüksek teknolojili ve katma değerli, bilgi yoğun mallarda rekabet gücü kazanabilmesinden geçmektedir. Bunların hepsinin başarılmasının anahtarı, üretim sürecinin en önemli girdisi insan kaynaklarındadır. İnsan kaynaklarının beceri seviyesi geliştirilmeden kalkınmış ülke olmak mümkün değildir. Bu makalede Türkiye'nin insan kaynaklarının eğitimi orta gelir tuzağı perspektifinden ele alınmış ve orta gelir tuzağına düşmüş ve tuzaktan kurtulmuş ülkelerin durumu ile karşılaştırılmıştır.

Empirical Economics, 2017

Export is an important component of national income. It is one of the main determinants of the de... more Export is an important component of national income. It is one of the main determinants of the development level of countries. Both developed and developing countries formulate policies to increase their exports, to increase quality, technology and value added of exported products and to gain competitive advantage in world markets. Export equations provide valuable information regarding this decision making process. Aim of this study was to conduct a survey on extensive literature on estimation of export equations. The literature on export equations can be grouped mainly into four levels of analysis from macro to micro: aggregated level exports, country-level, sector-level and firm-level analyses. In this study, we have surveyed the literature on each level. In the last part, a survey of econometric techniques used in estimation of export equations has been provided, as well.

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2016

ABSTRACT This study aims to determine the most important factors affecting sectoral exports dynam... more ABSTRACT This study aims to determine the most important factors affecting sectoral exports dynamics of Turkey and to estimate sectoral exports elasticities. It then relates sectoral elasticities to factor and technology intensities. The study uses three recent panel data estimators, Mean Group, Augmented Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimators, all of which take into consideration slope heterogeneity and the last two also taking into consideration cross-sectional dependency. The results obtained show that foreign demand and productivity are important determinants of Turkish exports. In addition, sectoral elasticities vary across sectors, tending to be greater in some sectors where factor and technology intensities are the main distinctive features.

The Liberalization of Transportation Services in the EU and Turkey, 2016

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2011

Corruption is an important social and ethical problem. Determining root causes of it should be th... more Corruption is an important social and ethical problem. Determining root causes of it should be the first step to fight it. In this study, using a dynamic panel data approach, we try to determine the likely causes of level of corruption in some of the former USSR countries and East Asian countries. Regression results show that, past values of corruption and the level of political rights in a country are the factors that are most affecting the level of corruption in a country. Degree of opennes to the foreign trade, interference of government in the economy, FDI inflows, degree of civil liberties seem not to have significant effect on corruption level in a country. Level of inflation, unemployment, per capita GDP seems not to be among the causes of corruption, but rather they are “caused by the corruption”. There seems no significant differences between East Asian Countries and post-communist countries in terms of corruption level, when the effect of other variables are kept constant.

Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 2012

Leading indicators are series that are examined to forecast fluctuations in a reference series. T... more Leading indicators are series that are examined to forecast fluctuations in a reference series. The series which are selected as the leading indicator of reference series are combined using weighted averages to form "composite leading indicators". In this study, we aim to form a "composite leading indicator" to forecast Turkey's exports series. For this purpose candidate leading indicator series were seasonally adjusted by using "TRAMO/SEATS" and de-trended by using Hodrik-Prescott filter. Best performing series were selected by looking at noise/signal ratios, improvement ratios, leading and coincident correlations and Granger causality relationships. Afterwards, a weighted average of best performing series were taken and thus, "a compostie leading indicator for Turkey's exports" was formed. The weights used are noise/signal ratio and improvement ratio. Calculated composite leading indicator improves the forecast of important declines in Turkey's exports up to 68%.

Business and Economics Research Journal, 2014

Role of industrial policies is important in the development of a country. For Turkey, manufacturi... more Role of industrial policies is important in the development of a country. For Turkey, manufacturing industry in an important component of GDP and driving force of the growth. This study aims to analize production of Turkish manufacturing industry. With this aim, we use a panel data set of 2005q1-2011q1 period and 78 industrial sectors. We analyse the data using Augmented Mean Group methodology, which is an effective method, taking into consideration cross sectional dependencies and parameter heterogeneities. Regression results show that, sectoral exports and imports, total investment expenditures, sectoral productivity and GDP of trade partners of Turkey affects manufacturing sectors' production positively, as expected. On the otherhand, appreciation of the real exchange rate harms industrial production. An increase in interest rates also has a dampening effect on industrial production. Regression results also enable us to analyse differing effects of each variable on each of the sectors.

Metu Studies in Development, May 1, 2013

Corruption has been a major problem in many societies throughout history. There is an extensive l... more Corruption has been a major problem in many societies throughout history. There is an extensive literature about the ways to discourage corruption, with staff rotation being one of the suggestions given. This article primarily focuses on the effect of staff rotation on corrupt transactions, although it also considers other factors, like connection building and use of intermediaries, which facilitate corrupt transactions. The roles of staff rotation, connection building and intermediaries are examined in three different settings: a stage game without intermediaries, an infinitely repeated game without intermediaries, and a game with intermediaries. Results suggest that staff rotation, increased penalties and a clean image of public office can be effective anti-corruption policy tools. Existence of intermediaries or a long term interaction between officers and the clients can solve time inconsistencies, thus, some corrupt transactions, which are not implementable otherwise, become feasible.

Ege Akademik Bakis (Ege Academic Review), 2013

Ticaret yapan ülkelerin ürünlerinin göreli fiyatlarının, fiyat rekabetindeki güçlerinin bir göste... more Ticaret yapan ülkelerin ürünlerinin göreli fiyatlarının, fiyat rekabetindeki güçlerinin bir göstergesi olan reel kur makroekonomik dengeler açısından önemli bir değişkendir. Reel kurdaki değişimler, dış ticaret başta olmak üzere çeşitli diğer makroekonomik değişkenleri etkilemektedir. Reel kurun dengede olmaması ekonomideki diğer dengeleri de bozucu etkilere yol açmaktadır.