Israel Junior - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
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Traffic simulators have great advantages in tactical and operational planning and the analyzes pr... more Traffic simulators have great advantages in tactical and operational planning and the analyzes produced by the simulators allow to evaluate a series of possible scenarios in a virtual environment, thus avoiding the expenditure of economic resources with the implementation of a certain action. This document deals with the analysis of the traffic light intersection located on Avenida Almirante Barroso and Avenida Tavares Bastos in the city of Belém. The objective is to analyze the impact of the growth of the vehicle fleet on urban mobility through the qualitative assessment of traffic efficiency in the Metropolitan Region of Belém in the current scenario (2020), after medium (5 years) and long term (10 years) using deterministic methods and the PTV VISSIM 2021 micro-simulator. To meet the proposed objective, the analysis of the intersection is performed using the deterministic methods HCM 2010 and DENATRAN 2014, modeling in the microsimulator software, calibrating the software with the information obtained through the deterministic methods, forecasting the growth rate and fleet volume for 2025 and 2030 based on data from the Ministry of Infrastructure of Brazil and finally the creation of two new scenarios applying the growth rates and evaluating the behavior of the intersection in the new conditions. Calibration is done by comparing the results of the deterministic methods with the results of the simulator. The validation is done through the maximum percentage difference of 15% and GEH below 5. The growth of the vehicle fleet for 2025 and 2030 is estimated at 18.10% and 38.05% respectively. Not all parameters have reached the correct calibration and further studies are needed to increase the accuracy of the results. From the comparison of the data obtained for Avenida Almirante Barroso, compared to the fundamental diagrams of traffic flow, it is observed that somewhen between the years 2025 and 2030 Avenida Almirante Barroso will reach its maximum capacity and the increase in the vehicles flow from then on will cause a boost in the driver’s travel time. This fact confirms the idea that the purchase of private vehicles for daily commuting increases congestion and grows the travel time, at least in the scenario observed in the city of Belém.
Keywords: Microsimulation; Intersection; HCM; DENATRAN; PTV VISSIM; Time series forecasting;
Traffic simulators have great advantages in tactical and operational planning and the analyzes pr... more Traffic simulators have great advantages in tactical and operational planning and the analyzes produced by the simulators allow to evaluate a series of possible scenarios in a virtual environment, thus avoiding the expenditure of economic resources with the implementation of a certain action. This document deals with the analysis of the traffic light intersection located on Avenida Almirante Barroso and Avenida Tavares Bastos in the city of Belém. The objective is to analyze the impact of the growth of the vehicle fleet on urban mobility through the qualitative assessment of traffic efficiency in the Metropolitan Region of Belém in the current scenario (2020), after medium (5 years) and long term (10 years) using deterministic methods and the PTV VISSIM 2021 micro-simulator. To meet the proposed objective, the analysis of the intersection is performed using the deterministic methods HCM 2010 and DENATRAN 2014, modeling in the microsimulator software, calibrating the software with the information obtained through the deterministic methods, forecasting the growth rate and fleet volume for 2025 and 2030 based on data from the Ministry of Infrastructure of Brazil and finally the creation of two new scenarios applying the growth rates and evaluating the behavior of the intersection in the new conditions. Calibration is done by comparing the results of the deterministic methods with the results of the simulator. The validation is done through the maximum percentage difference of 15% and GEH below 5. The growth of the vehicle fleet for 2025 and 2030 is estimated at 18.10% and 38.05% respectively. Not all parameters have reached the correct calibration and further studies are needed to increase the accuracy of the results. From the comparison of the data obtained for Avenida Almirante Barroso, compared to the fundamental diagrams of traffic flow, it is observed that somewhen between the years 2025 and 2030 Avenida Almirante Barroso will reach its maximum capacity and the increase in the vehicles flow from then on will cause a boost in the driver’s travel time. This fact confirms the idea that the purchase of private vehicles for daily commuting increases congestion and grows the travel time, at least in the scenario observed in the city of Belém.
Keywords: Microsimulation; Intersection; HCM; DENATRAN; PTV VISSIM; Time series forecasting;