Juozas Augutis - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Juozas Augutis
Lietuvos matematikos rinkinys, Dec 16, 2004
Lietuvos energetikos institutasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Mar 17, 2011
The paper presents the investigation of the impact of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown... more The paper presents the investigation of the impact of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown on Lithuanian energy security. The system of energy security indicators, covering technical, economic and socio-political aspects is presented. The integral characteristic of these indicators shows the level of energy security. The paper analyses the Lithuanian energy security level in 2007. To make a comparison, the energy security level in 2010, after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, when Lithuanian Power Plant in Elektrėnai becomes the main electricity producer, is forecasted. Two alternatives are analysed: Lithuanian Power Plant uses either gas or heavy fuel oil for electricity production. The security level of each indicator, each indicator block and the total security level are presented as the result. Energy security indicators, which increased or decreased after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, are analysed, including the indicators which have had the greatest impact on the change in energy security level. The influence of Ignalina NPP shutdown on CO 2 emissions is presented. Also, electricity generating costs for different types of electricity production at a different discount rate are presented.
Ecology and the Environment, Nov 17, 2009
Energy supply in Lithuania will be particularly vulnerable after the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant... more Energy supply in Lithuania will be particularly vulnerable after the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown at the end of 2009, when a new power plant is designed. Presently, gas supply is expensive and unreliable, and electricity connections with western countries have not been built. Technical, economical, social political and terrorist disturbances will become very important, as well as the ability of the Lithuanian energy sector to overcome these obstacles and the consequences which are important to foresee for decision makers. In this paper a methodology is presented to assess an energy security level, the assumptions taken into account, data collected for the model, and prior economical analysis results are shown. The model is in the building stage. It will be created for the assessment of the risks using probabilistic safety analysis on the SES RISK framework. The real composition of Lithuanian energy supply (energy sources, networks) is reflected in the model, possible initiating events are taken into account, and their probabilities are determined by expert methods or modelled using an economical model.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Aug 26, 2010
In this paper a developed mathematical model of hazard distribution within a network system with ... more In this paper a developed mathematical model of hazard distribution within a network system with a resistance feature is presented. The network system is described by graph theory. Hazards arising can be transmitted to others nodes which have connections with the infected node. Intensity of hazard transmission is described by channel bandwidth between the nodes of the network system. Each node has the ability to resist incoming hazards (to reduce it to safe level) in a network system. This ability is called resistance of the node. Resistance (or immunity) is regarded as random variables (or a random process) and Beta distribution is an appropriate probabilistic model of the node resistance. The main purpose of this research work is developing a mathematical model that allows us to make forecast of how many cycles are necessary on average to eliminate hazards or to reduce to a safe level; how long (how many average cycles) system can work normally (corresponding to safety requirements) under the influence of hazard. Developed mathematical model of hazard distribution in a network system with resistance feature could be used in the assessment of operation safety of emergency systems that are provided to operate in extreme conditions during an accident as well.
WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, Sep 17, 2013
A sufficient security level of energy supply is vital to the functioning of modern economy since ... more A sufficient security level of energy supply is vital to the functioning of modern economy since reliable supply is necessary to ensure industrial activities and satisfy population needs. In our previous papers (Lithuanian energy security level assessment based on indicator dependence (2011), Dynamic model for energy security level assessment (2012)) there was constructed a system of energy security indicators for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security level. A security indicator is a special index which provides numerical values to important issues for the security of energy sector. Further, a dynamic indicator model, which includes interdependencies between indicators, was created for assessment of the energy security level. This model enables us to forecast the Lithuanian energy security level according to different development scenarios, such as a building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, electricity connection between Sweden and Lithuania (NordBalt), etc. Since technical parameters of new objects are not exactly known; their influence on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probabilistic distributions. A security indicators model based on historic data is adjusted by a probabilistic model of LNG or NordBalt influence on indicators using the Bayesian approach. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the coefficients in a dynamic model of indicators for energy security level assessment. These coefficients are calculated in two ways: using algebraic and least square methods. This paper presents the dynamic indicator model, calculation methods of coefficients of indicators equations system and pilot calculations.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Aug 26, 2010
This study presents the developed algorithm for assessment and updating estimates of the paramete... more This study presents the developed algorithm for assessment and updating estimates of the parameters in mathematical models of device or systems ageing process (that is characterized by increasing failure rate) with respect to prior information and obtained observations (failure data). The proposed algorithm is based on a modified application of the Bayesian approach (BA). In the paper some ways for the forecasting of residual lifetime with respect of allowed risk margins using obtained updated mathematical model of increasing failure rate are presented.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Sep 19, 2012
Effective functioning of the energy sector is very important for the economy of every modern stat... more Effective functioning of the energy sector is very important for the economy of every modern state. Thus, energy security is an inseparable part of the total economic security of the state. Energy security indicators were constructed for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security level. The purpose of the paper is to construct a dynamic model for energy security level assessment. Dynamic model of indicators will enable us to forecast the Lithuanian energy security level according to different factors, such as building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, power interconnections between Lithuania and Poland (LitPolLink), etc. Since technical parameters of new objects are not exactly known, these uncertainties should be reflected in the initial conditions of a differential equations system. Thus, in such conditions, the values of indicators are random variables. The paper presents a model of dynamic indicators and pilot calculations.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Sep 19, 2012
The energy security level assessment methodology and calculation results are presented in this pa... more The energy security level assessment methodology and calculation results are presented in this paper. This paper is a result of an interdisciplinary work encompassing energy system modelling, analysis of technical, economic, environmental, sociopolitical and other threats and their consequences as well as the assessment of integral energy security level. The novelty and originality of this work is represented by the interdisciplinary integration of the developed methods: not only technical and economic information of the system, but also sociopolitical assessment of threats and sociological analysis of consequences are included into the assessment of the causes and consequences of the energy system disturbances. Test calculations were carried out according to this methodology and individual examples and scenarios were discussed. Some conclusions can already be drawn from these calculations. For instance, several basic groups of threats to the Lithuanian energy system may be distinguished, such as dependence on a single supplier of energy sources, great dependence on fuel and energy import, lack of energy network integration to the EU networks and energy markets, low energy use efficiency, domination of monopolies in the energy system, lack of energy infrastructure development and its vision. The shutdown of Ignalina NPP has had some negative (increase of electricity cost, gas and electricity import) as well as positive (a real electricity market was established, the dependence of Lithuania on a single power plant unit was eliminated, the development of renewable energy sources became more active) consequences for the Lithuanian energy security. The calculations demonstrated that the Lithuanian energy security level only very slightly declined after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP (approximately 6%). New projects for the development of the Lithuanian energy, such as electricity connection to Sweden and Poland, liquefied gas terminal, a new nuclear power plant, etc., fundamentally increase the Lithuanian energy security level. Having performed Risk Analysis VIII 3
Institutions, Efficiency and Evolving Energy Technologies,34th IAEE International Conference,June 19-23, 2011, Jun 19, 2011
Prior to 2010 Lithuania was a nuclear power energy producing country. More than 75% of the total ... more Prior to 2010 Lithuania was a nuclear power energy producing country. More than 75% of the total Lithuanian electricity production consisted of nuclear power energy. Since the beginning of 2010, both units of Ignalina NPP have been shutdown and the Lithuanian energy system became highly dependent on import of electricity and fossil fuels. Lithuania is isolated from the EU energy systems: there are no electricity interconnections with the Continental Europe and the country is dependent on a single external gas supplier. In addition, Lithuania imports more than a half of the total amount of consumed electricity from neighbouring countries, whereas the remaining part is generated by using fossil fuels supplied by a single source [1]. In this context the issue of Lithuanian energy security, relevant up to now, has become even more important and problematic. As electricity production in the Lithuanian power plant increases gas consumption and, consequently, the dependence on it, it is obvious that this factor in its turn decreases the level of energy security. In the end of 2010, the Government of the Republic of Lithuania endorsed the National Energy (Energy Independence) Strategy. In this document some strategic initiatives till 2020 were proposed. One of them is to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Klaipeda. The main desired functions of this terminal are the following: to diversify the supply of natural gas so that the country would not be dependent on a single gas supplier; to provide the emergency natural gas reserve function aiming to independently cover the emergency demand for gas; to gain access to the gas spot markes; to establish the preconditions for forming a primary gas market in Lithuania [1]Lietuvos energetikos institutasLietuvos energetikos institutas, rolandas@mail.lei.ltMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Jun 27, 2014
After the last major accidents in the energy sector of the last decade (USA and Canada (2003), In... more After the last major accidents in the energy sector of the last decade (USA and Canada (2003), India (2012), Russian-Ukrainian ( )), energy infrastructure criticality assessment has become one of the most important issues. It has become the topical subject of the economy and national security in all countries. There is no single measure unit for the assessment of critical infrastructure with respect to "interdependency" among critical infrastructure sectors. This paper proposes to use criticality of infrastructure element as a measure to assess the importance of considered element to the normal activity of all sectors of infrastructure. The pilot numerical simulation of heat and electricity infrastructure was performed to demonstrate the implementation of the application of developed method for the assessment of infrastructure functionality and criticality.
The topicality of this work is based on two aspects. First, the problems of hazard identification... more The topicality of this work is based on two aspects. First, the problems of hazard identification, assessment and prevention are relevant woldwide due to the growing concentration of hazardous materials,increasing complexity of technological processes in which hazardous materials, very high pressures and temperatures are used, intensifyig flows of transportation and information on the one hand and new safety requirements and standards on the other. The second factor is that in the resent years in Lithuanian roads a considerable amount of hazard materials is transported, especially oil products. However, there is no common methodology, which could assess the risk of such transport. Lithuania has accepted directives, norms and other acts of law related to risk and hazard assessment and prevention that are valid in the European Union. In relation to that hazard assessment and analysis has even greater significance. The novelty of the work is associated with employing Markov process to describe hazard distribution mechanism and to determine limited hazard distribution in the nodes of networksLietuvos energetikos instituta
Ignalinos AE RBMK tipo reaktoriaus aušinimo sistemoje naudojami šilumnešio srauto matuokliai ŠADR... more Ignalinos AE RBMK tipo reaktoriaus aušinimo sistemoje naudojami šilumnešio srauto matuokliai ŠADR-32M. ŠADR gamintojų nustatytas eksploatacijos resursas sudaro 32000 val. Laikantis gamintojų nurodymų, ŠADR matuokliai turi būti keičiami pasibaigus jų eksploatacijos resursui. Siekiant prailginti ŠADR eksploatacijos laiką vadovaujamasi ne gamintojo nurodytu resursu, tačiau faktine ŠADR būkle. Įvedus ŠADR netinkamumo eksplotuoti kriterijus kasmet atliekami jų diagnostiniai matavimai ir keičiami kriterijų netenkinantys matuokliai. Darbe išanalizuota gedimų bei diagnostinių matavimų statistika ir patikrinti ŠADR netinkamumo eksploatuoti įvertinimui naudojami kriterijai. Pasiūlyti nauji ŠADR keitimo kriterijai, bei įvertintas jų efektyvumas. Sudaryta ŠADR keitimų strategija, leidžianti planuoti keičiamų matuoklių skaičių ir užtikrinti reikalaujamą šilumnešio srauto matuoklių sistemos RBMK-1500 reaktoriuose patikimumo lygįIn cooling system of reactor RBMK at Ignalina nuclear power plant it ...
Scopus 2-s2.0-84857468122. Code 88581The main purpose of the study is real time flood forecast mo... more Scopus 2-s2.0-84857468122. Code 88581The main purpose of the study is real time flood forecast model development for Lithuanian river Nemunas. Forecast model is based on flood hydrograph ordinates predictions for few days time interval. As the flood hydrograph is random event there were checked if the physical forms of probabilistic distribution density functions can describe the hydrograph form and shape. Analysis showed that Beta density function is the best fit for flood hydrograph derivation and then Bayesian techniques were applied for this function ordinated forecast calculationsLietuvos energetikos institutas, eugeniju@mail.lei.ltLietuvos energetikos institutas, j. augutis@if.vdu.ltLietuvos energetikos institutas, j. volskiene@if.vdu.ltMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Energy security refers to a resilient energy system. Threat analysis of energy system comprises t... more Energy security refers to a resilient energy system. Threat analysis of energy system comprises technical, natural, political, geopolitical and other threats. Depending on their realization probability, threats can transform into one or another energy system disturbance. The paper presents a methodology which enables the investigation of energy system resistance to disturbances. One of the mathematical models used here is based on the energy system balance partial equilibrium equations and each disturbance development scenario is modelled in the deterministic way by optimization according to the minimal system costs. Another model is probabilistic and enables the simultaneous simulation of all possible disturbance development scenarios and the assessment of probability of potential consequences of the system. The paper focuses on the partial equilibrium model which is used for energy security assessment. An open source energy modelling system OSeMOSYS with modifications to suit the needs is used as the main tool for modelling the disturbed energy system. The developed model can define which energy system development scenario is optimal in terms of energy security and which is most resistant to the disturbances which are the realizations of threats. An example application of the reference energy system is made to explain the selected functional aspects of the modelLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Tomo antraštė: 8th annual international conference of young scientists on energy issues (CYSENI 2... more Tomo antraštė: 8th annual international conference of young scientists on energy issues (CYSENI 2011), Kaunas, Lithuania, 26-27 May 2011Energy plays an important role in the national security of any given country as a fuel to power the economic engine. Hence threats to energy security can also result from physical damage to the energy infrastructure either of the supplier, or of the importer as a result of natural events, misfortune, terrorism or warfare. The political and economic instability caused by war or other factors such as strike action can also prevent the proper functioning of the energy industry in a supplier country. All mentioned threats could cause energy supply disturbances affecting the whole energy system and infrastructure. The paper examines the influence of energy supply disturbances to energy system. A single integrated mathematical framework of the whole energy system comprising electricity, gas, and heat networks is formulated using a network flow concept. The mathematical model of energy system as a network defined by a collection of nodes and arcs with energy flowing from node to node along paths in the network and energy supply disturbances affecting this network is proposed. The paper focuses on three elements: energy supply (production), generation, and consumption. The influence of disturbances to energy system is analysed in respect of fuel accessibility, price changes of fuel, and energy, available generation capacity, meeting the demand of consumers. A numerical example of pilot case is presented to highlight the benefits of the methodology and illustrate how energy supply disturbances influence the network of energy systemLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas; Versus aureus, 2016
Energetinio saugumo tyrimų centro (toliau -Centro) vadovas prof. habil. dr. Juozas Augutis Centro... more Energetinio saugumo tyrimų centro (toliau -Centro) vadovas prof. habil. dr. Juozas Augutis Centro vyresnysis mokslo darbuotojas prof. dr. Ričardas Krikštolaitis Centro vyresnysis mokslo darbuotojas prof. dr. Vylius Leonavičius Centro vyresnioji mokslo darbuotoja doc. dr. Sigita Pečiulytė Centro mokslo darbuotojas doc. dr. Dainius Genys Centro jaunesnysis mokslo darbuotojas dr. Giedrius Česnakas Centro jaunesnysis mokslo darbuotojas dr. Linas Martišauskas Centro jaunesnysis mokslo darbuotojas doktorantas Justinas Juozaitis Energetinio saugumo tyrimų centro kontaktai
Security of energy supply plays a considerable role in the economic growth and social welfare in ... more Security of energy supply plays a considerable role in the economic growth and social welfare in any country and is an integral part of the Energy Union (EU) strategy [1]. Unexpected disruptions in energy systems can have both an economic and social cost. As a result, energy security has become a key theme not only in the EU, but also worldwide long time ago. The latest strategic European Commission's (EC) policy documents [2] emphasize the importance of diversifying sources of energy and ensuring energy security as well. However, to support energy policy-making, the framework for energy security assessment can be seen as a necessary measure. The main objective of the presented framework is the assessment of energy security for analysed countries using energy system modelling approach. The framework is based on the mathematical model for future perspective of energy security coefficient (ESC) for different development scenarios of energy systems. It allows to assess energy security in terms of energy systems resilience to disruptions and consists of several steps, each of which can be described by the following models: probabilistic model for the formation of stochastic disruptions of energy system and their parameters; mathematical optimisation model for modelling of disrupted energy system scenarios; energy security metric employed to measure energy security via energy security coefficient, which indicates the level of energy system resilience to disruptions.[...]Lietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Energy Strategy Reviews, 2018
In this article, a methodology for energy security assessment in terms of energy system resilienc... more In this article, a methodology for energy security assessment in terms of energy system resilience to disruptions is presented. The methodology serves as an integrated framework towards the evaluation of energy security, which directly refers to energy system resilience. The proposed model expands the conventional energy system modelling tools with the ability to model the energy system in the environment of stochastic disruptions. Furthermore, the methodology provides an energy security metric, whose main goal is to quantitatively estimate energy security for future development scenarios or pathways of the energy system in terms of its resilience. The methodology is based on the analysis of emerging threats, disruptions and associated consequences to energy systems combined with the energy system modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Furthermore, the model with its characteristics and modelling algorithm are described, the main strengths and limitations are indicated, and potential future developments and applications of the methodology are discussed. An illustrative case study for Lithuanian energy system, including fuel supply, electricity and district heating, is carried out to demonstrate the applicability and capabilities of the methodology. Three scenarios constructed according to different targets of renewable energy, which are being considered in the project of new National Energy Independence Strategy of Lithuania, demonstrate the potential impact of renewables development on energy security.
Lietuvos matematikos rinkinys, Dec 16, 2004
Lietuvos energetikos institutasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Mar 17, 2011
The paper presents the investigation of the impact of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown... more The paper presents the investigation of the impact of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown on Lithuanian energy security. The system of energy security indicators, covering technical, economic and socio-political aspects is presented. The integral characteristic of these indicators shows the level of energy security. The paper analyses the Lithuanian energy security level in 2007. To make a comparison, the energy security level in 2010, after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, when Lithuanian Power Plant in Elektrėnai becomes the main electricity producer, is forecasted. Two alternatives are analysed: Lithuanian Power Plant uses either gas or heavy fuel oil for electricity production. The security level of each indicator, each indicator block and the total security level are presented as the result. Energy security indicators, which increased or decreased after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, are analysed, including the indicators which have had the greatest impact on the change in energy security level. The influence of Ignalina NPP shutdown on CO 2 emissions is presented. Also, electricity generating costs for different types of electricity production at a different discount rate are presented.
Ecology and the Environment, Nov 17, 2009
Energy supply in Lithuania will be particularly vulnerable after the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant... more Energy supply in Lithuania will be particularly vulnerable after the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown at the end of 2009, when a new power plant is designed. Presently, gas supply is expensive and unreliable, and electricity connections with western countries have not been built. Technical, economical, social political and terrorist disturbances will become very important, as well as the ability of the Lithuanian energy sector to overcome these obstacles and the consequences which are important to foresee for decision makers. In this paper a methodology is presented to assess an energy security level, the assumptions taken into account, data collected for the model, and prior economical analysis results are shown. The model is in the building stage. It will be created for the assessment of the risks using probabilistic safety analysis on the SES RISK framework. The real composition of Lithuanian energy supply (energy sources, networks) is reflected in the model, possible initiating events are taken into account, and their probabilities are determined by expert methods or modelled using an economical model.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Aug 26, 2010
In this paper a developed mathematical model of hazard distribution within a network system with ... more In this paper a developed mathematical model of hazard distribution within a network system with a resistance feature is presented. The network system is described by graph theory. Hazards arising can be transmitted to others nodes which have connections with the infected node. Intensity of hazard transmission is described by channel bandwidth between the nodes of the network system. Each node has the ability to resist incoming hazards (to reduce it to safe level) in a network system. This ability is called resistance of the node. Resistance (or immunity) is regarded as random variables (or a random process) and Beta distribution is an appropriate probabilistic model of the node resistance. The main purpose of this research work is developing a mathematical model that allows us to make forecast of how many cycles are necessary on average to eliminate hazards or to reduce to a safe level; how long (how many average cycles) system can work normally (corresponding to safety requirements) under the influence of hazard. Developed mathematical model of hazard distribution in a network system with resistance feature could be used in the assessment of operation safety of emergency systems that are provided to operate in extreme conditions during an accident as well.
WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, Sep 17, 2013
A sufficient security level of energy supply is vital to the functioning of modern economy since ... more A sufficient security level of energy supply is vital to the functioning of modern economy since reliable supply is necessary to ensure industrial activities and satisfy population needs. In our previous papers (Lithuanian energy security level assessment based on indicator dependence (2011), Dynamic model for energy security level assessment (2012)) there was constructed a system of energy security indicators for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security level. A security indicator is a special index which provides numerical values to important issues for the security of energy sector. Further, a dynamic indicator model, which includes interdependencies between indicators, was created for assessment of the energy security level. This model enables us to forecast the Lithuanian energy security level according to different development scenarios, such as a building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, electricity connection between Sweden and Lithuania (NordBalt), etc. Since technical parameters of new objects are not exactly known; their influence on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probabilistic distributions. A security indicators model based on historic data is adjusted by a probabilistic model of LNG or NordBalt influence on indicators using the Bayesian approach. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the coefficients in a dynamic model of indicators for energy security level assessment. These coefficients are calculated in two ways: using algebraic and least square methods. This paper presents the dynamic indicator model, calculation methods of coefficients of indicators equations system and pilot calculations.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Aug 26, 2010
This study presents the developed algorithm for assessment and updating estimates of the paramete... more This study presents the developed algorithm for assessment and updating estimates of the parameters in mathematical models of device or systems ageing process (that is characterized by increasing failure rate) with respect to prior information and obtained observations (failure data). The proposed algorithm is based on a modified application of the Bayesian approach (BA). In the paper some ways for the forecasting of residual lifetime with respect of allowed risk margins using obtained updated mathematical model of increasing failure rate are presented.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Sep 19, 2012
Effective functioning of the energy sector is very important for the economy of every modern stat... more Effective functioning of the energy sector is very important for the economy of every modern state. Thus, energy security is an inseparable part of the total economic security of the state. Energy security indicators were constructed for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security level. The purpose of the paper is to construct a dynamic model for energy security level assessment. Dynamic model of indicators will enable us to forecast the Lithuanian energy security level according to different factors, such as building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, power interconnections between Lithuania and Poland (LitPolLink), etc. Since technical parameters of new objects are not exactly known, these uncertainties should be reflected in the initial conditions of a differential equations system. Thus, in such conditions, the values of indicators are random variables. The paper presents a model of dynamic indicators and pilot calculations.
WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, Sep 19, 2012
The energy security level assessment methodology and calculation results are presented in this pa... more The energy security level assessment methodology and calculation results are presented in this paper. This paper is a result of an interdisciplinary work encompassing energy system modelling, analysis of technical, economic, environmental, sociopolitical and other threats and their consequences as well as the assessment of integral energy security level. The novelty and originality of this work is represented by the interdisciplinary integration of the developed methods: not only technical and economic information of the system, but also sociopolitical assessment of threats and sociological analysis of consequences are included into the assessment of the causes and consequences of the energy system disturbances. Test calculations were carried out according to this methodology and individual examples and scenarios were discussed. Some conclusions can already be drawn from these calculations. For instance, several basic groups of threats to the Lithuanian energy system may be distinguished, such as dependence on a single supplier of energy sources, great dependence on fuel and energy import, lack of energy network integration to the EU networks and energy markets, low energy use efficiency, domination of monopolies in the energy system, lack of energy infrastructure development and its vision. The shutdown of Ignalina NPP has had some negative (increase of electricity cost, gas and electricity import) as well as positive (a real electricity market was established, the dependence of Lithuania on a single power plant unit was eliminated, the development of renewable energy sources became more active) consequences for the Lithuanian energy security. The calculations demonstrated that the Lithuanian energy security level only very slightly declined after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP (approximately 6%). New projects for the development of the Lithuanian energy, such as electricity connection to Sweden and Poland, liquefied gas terminal, a new nuclear power plant, etc., fundamentally increase the Lithuanian energy security level. Having performed Risk Analysis VIII 3
Institutions, Efficiency and Evolving Energy Technologies,34th IAEE International Conference,June 19-23, 2011, Jun 19, 2011
Prior to 2010 Lithuania was a nuclear power energy producing country. More than 75% of the total ... more Prior to 2010 Lithuania was a nuclear power energy producing country. More than 75% of the total Lithuanian electricity production consisted of nuclear power energy. Since the beginning of 2010, both units of Ignalina NPP have been shutdown and the Lithuanian energy system became highly dependent on import of electricity and fossil fuels. Lithuania is isolated from the EU energy systems: there are no electricity interconnections with the Continental Europe and the country is dependent on a single external gas supplier. In addition, Lithuania imports more than a half of the total amount of consumed electricity from neighbouring countries, whereas the remaining part is generated by using fossil fuels supplied by a single source [1]. In this context the issue of Lithuanian energy security, relevant up to now, has become even more important and problematic. As electricity production in the Lithuanian power plant increases gas consumption and, consequently, the dependence on it, it is obvious that this factor in its turn decreases the level of energy security. In the end of 2010, the Government of the Republic of Lithuania endorsed the National Energy (Energy Independence) Strategy. In this document some strategic initiatives till 2020 were proposed. One of them is to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Klaipeda. The main desired functions of this terminal are the following: to diversify the supply of natural gas so that the country would not be dependent on a single gas supplier; to provide the emergency natural gas reserve function aiming to independently cover the emergency demand for gas; to gain access to the gas spot markes; to establish the preconditions for forming a primary gas market in Lithuania [1]Lietuvos energetikos institutasLietuvos energetikos institutas, rolandas@mail.lei.ltMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Jun 27, 2014
After the last major accidents in the energy sector of the last decade (USA and Canada (2003), In... more After the last major accidents in the energy sector of the last decade (USA and Canada (2003), India (2012), Russian-Ukrainian ( )), energy infrastructure criticality assessment has become one of the most important issues. It has become the topical subject of the economy and national security in all countries. There is no single measure unit for the assessment of critical infrastructure with respect to "interdependency" among critical infrastructure sectors. This paper proposes to use criticality of infrastructure element as a measure to assess the importance of considered element to the normal activity of all sectors of infrastructure. The pilot numerical simulation of heat and electricity infrastructure was performed to demonstrate the implementation of the application of developed method for the assessment of infrastructure functionality and criticality.
The topicality of this work is based on two aspects. First, the problems of hazard identification... more The topicality of this work is based on two aspects. First, the problems of hazard identification, assessment and prevention are relevant woldwide due to the growing concentration of hazardous materials,increasing complexity of technological processes in which hazardous materials, very high pressures and temperatures are used, intensifyig flows of transportation and information on the one hand and new safety requirements and standards on the other. The second factor is that in the resent years in Lithuanian roads a considerable amount of hazard materials is transported, especially oil products. However, there is no common methodology, which could assess the risk of such transport. Lithuania has accepted directives, norms and other acts of law related to risk and hazard assessment and prevention that are valid in the European Union. In relation to that hazard assessment and analysis has even greater significance. The novelty of the work is associated with employing Markov process to describe hazard distribution mechanism and to determine limited hazard distribution in the nodes of networksLietuvos energetikos instituta
Ignalinos AE RBMK tipo reaktoriaus aušinimo sistemoje naudojami šilumnešio srauto matuokliai ŠADR... more Ignalinos AE RBMK tipo reaktoriaus aušinimo sistemoje naudojami šilumnešio srauto matuokliai ŠADR-32M. ŠADR gamintojų nustatytas eksploatacijos resursas sudaro 32000 val. Laikantis gamintojų nurodymų, ŠADR matuokliai turi būti keičiami pasibaigus jų eksploatacijos resursui. Siekiant prailginti ŠADR eksploatacijos laiką vadovaujamasi ne gamintojo nurodytu resursu, tačiau faktine ŠADR būkle. Įvedus ŠADR netinkamumo eksplotuoti kriterijus kasmet atliekami jų diagnostiniai matavimai ir keičiami kriterijų netenkinantys matuokliai. Darbe išanalizuota gedimų bei diagnostinių matavimų statistika ir patikrinti ŠADR netinkamumo eksploatuoti įvertinimui naudojami kriterijai. Pasiūlyti nauji ŠADR keitimo kriterijai, bei įvertintas jų efektyvumas. Sudaryta ŠADR keitimų strategija, leidžianti planuoti keičiamų matuoklių skaičių ir užtikrinti reikalaujamą šilumnešio srauto matuoklių sistemos RBMK-1500 reaktoriuose patikimumo lygįIn cooling system of reactor RBMK at Ignalina nuclear power plant it ...
Scopus 2-s2.0-84857468122. Code 88581The main purpose of the study is real time flood forecast mo... more Scopus 2-s2.0-84857468122. Code 88581The main purpose of the study is real time flood forecast model development for Lithuanian river Nemunas. Forecast model is based on flood hydrograph ordinates predictions for few days time interval. As the flood hydrograph is random event there were checked if the physical forms of probabilistic distribution density functions can describe the hydrograph form and shape. Analysis showed that Beta density function is the best fit for flood hydrograph derivation and then Bayesian techniques were applied for this function ordinated forecast calculationsLietuvos energetikos institutas, eugeniju@mail.lei.ltLietuvos energetikos institutas, j. augutis@if.vdu.ltLietuvos energetikos institutas, j. volskiene@if.vdu.ltMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Energy security refers to a resilient energy system. Threat analysis of energy system comprises t... more Energy security refers to a resilient energy system. Threat analysis of energy system comprises technical, natural, political, geopolitical and other threats. Depending on their realization probability, threats can transform into one or another energy system disturbance. The paper presents a methodology which enables the investigation of energy system resistance to disturbances. One of the mathematical models used here is based on the energy system balance partial equilibrium equations and each disturbance development scenario is modelled in the deterministic way by optimization according to the minimal system costs. Another model is probabilistic and enables the simultaneous simulation of all possible disturbance development scenarios and the assessment of probability of potential consequences of the system. The paper focuses on the partial equilibrium model which is used for energy security assessment. An open source energy modelling system OSeMOSYS with modifications to suit the needs is used as the main tool for modelling the disturbed energy system. The developed model can define which energy system development scenario is optimal in terms of energy security and which is most resistant to the disturbances which are the realizations of threats. An example application of the reference energy system is made to explain the selected functional aspects of the modelLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Tomo antraštė: 8th annual international conference of young scientists on energy issues (CYSENI 2... more Tomo antraštė: 8th annual international conference of young scientists on energy issues (CYSENI 2011), Kaunas, Lithuania, 26-27 May 2011Energy plays an important role in the national security of any given country as a fuel to power the economic engine. Hence threats to energy security can also result from physical damage to the energy infrastructure either of the supplier, or of the importer as a result of natural events, misfortune, terrorism or warfare. The political and economic instability caused by war or other factors such as strike action can also prevent the proper functioning of the energy industry in a supplier country. All mentioned threats could cause energy supply disturbances affecting the whole energy system and infrastructure. The paper examines the influence of energy supply disturbances to energy system. A single integrated mathematical framework of the whole energy system comprising electricity, gas, and heat networks is formulated using a network flow concept. The mathematical model of energy system as a network defined by a collection of nodes and arcs with energy flowing from node to node along paths in the network and energy supply disturbances affecting this network is proposed. The paper focuses on three elements: energy supply (production), generation, and consumption. The influence of disturbances to energy system is analysed in respect of fuel accessibility, price changes of fuel, and energy, available generation capacity, meeting the demand of consumers. A numerical example of pilot case is presented to highlight the benefits of the methodology and illustrate how energy supply disturbances influence the network of energy systemLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas; Versus aureus, 2016
Energetinio saugumo tyrimų centro (toliau -Centro) vadovas prof. habil. dr. Juozas Augutis Centro... more Energetinio saugumo tyrimų centro (toliau -Centro) vadovas prof. habil. dr. Juozas Augutis Centro vyresnysis mokslo darbuotojas prof. dr. Ričardas Krikštolaitis Centro vyresnysis mokslo darbuotojas prof. dr. Vylius Leonavičius Centro vyresnioji mokslo darbuotoja doc. dr. Sigita Pečiulytė Centro mokslo darbuotojas doc. dr. Dainius Genys Centro jaunesnysis mokslo darbuotojas dr. Giedrius Česnakas Centro jaunesnysis mokslo darbuotojas dr. Linas Martišauskas Centro jaunesnysis mokslo darbuotojas doktorantas Justinas Juozaitis Energetinio saugumo tyrimų centro kontaktai
Security of energy supply plays a considerable role in the economic growth and social welfare in ... more Security of energy supply plays a considerable role in the economic growth and social welfare in any country and is an integral part of the Energy Union (EU) strategy [1]. Unexpected disruptions in energy systems can have both an economic and social cost. As a result, energy security has become a key theme not only in the EU, but also worldwide long time ago. The latest strategic European Commission's (EC) policy documents [2] emphasize the importance of diversifying sources of energy and ensuring energy security as well. However, to support energy policy-making, the framework for energy security assessment can be seen as a necessary measure. The main objective of the presented framework is the assessment of energy security for analysed countries using energy system modelling approach. The framework is based on the mathematical model for future perspective of energy security coefficient (ESC) for different development scenarios of energy systems. It allows to assess energy security in terms of energy systems resilience to disruptions and consists of several steps, each of which can be described by the following models: probabilistic model for the formation of stochastic disruptions of energy system and their parameters; mathematical optimisation model for modelling of disrupted energy system scenarios; energy security metric employed to measure energy security via energy security coefficient, which indicates the level of energy system resilience to disruptions.[...]Lietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta
Energy Strategy Reviews, 2018
In this article, a methodology for energy security assessment in terms of energy system resilienc... more In this article, a methodology for energy security assessment in terms of energy system resilience to disruptions is presented. The methodology serves as an integrated framework towards the evaluation of energy security, which directly refers to energy system resilience. The proposed model expands the conventional energy system modelling tools with the ability to model the energy system in the environment of stochastic disruptions. Furthermore, the methodology provides an energy security metric, whose main goal is to quantitatively estimate energy security for future development scenarios or pathways of the energy system in terms of its resilience. The methodology is based on the analysis of emerging threats, disruptions and associated consequences to energy systems combined with the energy system modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Furthermore, the model with its characteristics and modelling algorithm are described, the main strengths and limitations are indicated, and potential future developments and applications of the methodology are discussed. An illustrative case study for Lithuanian energy system, including fuel supply, electricity and district heating, is carried out to demonstrate the applicability and capabilities of the methodology. Three scenarios constructed according to different targets of renewable energy, which are being considered in the project of new National Energy Independence Strategy of Lithuania, demonstrate the potential impact of renewables development on energy security.