Maria Vittoria Struglia - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Maria Vittoria Struglia

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Oct 11, 2023

In the framework of the coordinated regional modeling initiative Med-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional... more In the framework of the coordinated regional modeling initiative Med-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), we present an updated version of the regional Earth System Model ENEA-REG designed to downscale, over the Mediterranean basin, the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The regional ESM includes coupled atmosphere (WRF), ocean (MITgcm), land (Noah-MP, embedded within WRF), and river (HD) components with spatial resolution of 12 km for the atmosphere, 1/12° for the ocean and 0.5° for the river rooting model. For the present climate, we performed a hindcast (i.e. reanalysis-driven) and a historical simulation (GCM-driven) over the 1980-2014 temporal period. The evaluation shows that the regional ESM reliably reproduces the mean state, spatial and temporal variability of the relevant atmospheric and ocean variables. In addition, we analyze the future evolution (2015-2100) of the Euro-Mediterranean climate under three different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), focusing on several relevant essential climate variables and climate indicators for impacts. Among others, results highlight how, for the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the intensity, frequency and duration of marine heat waves continue to increase until the end of the century and anomalies of up to 2°C, which are considered extreme at the beginning of this century, will become the norm in less than a hundred years under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Overall, our results demonstrate the improvement due to the high-resolution air-sea coupling for the representation of high impact events, such as marine heat waves, and sea-level height. circulation features (Cardoso and Soares 2022; Drobinski et al. 2018) at resolutions ranging between 12 and 25 km (Kotlarski et al. 2014; Fantini et al. 2018). Furthermore, regional models provide improved resolution of the spatial patterns and seasonal cycles of precipitation, including extremes (e.g., Heikkilä et al. 2011; Giorgi and Gutowski 2015). The results of these coordinated regional modelling initiatives have allowed the scientific community to define a number of climatic quantities that are relevant to socioeconomic sectors and natural systems (Ranasinghe et al. 2021). Additionally, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS-https://gcos.wmo.int/en/home) developed the concept of essential climate variables (ECVs), namely relevant parameters for the characterization of Earth's climate. ECVs can be either physical, chemical or biological, single or grouped (due to their joint concurrence in determining critical processes). They provide reliable, traceable, observation-based evidence that enables the accurate modelling and prediction that support policy development and adaptation planning, by helping scientists understand the drivers of past, current, and future climate variability (GCOS 2016). ECVs also provide a benchmark for climate model validation and guidance as to the essential variables that should constitute the standard output of any numerical experiment. Among ECVs, temperature and precipitation are known to affect a wide variety of processes and systems, with important consequences for natural ecosystems and human society. Similarly, the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS-https://www.goosocean.org/), defined a list of critical variables (Essential Ocean Variables, i.e. EOVs). Among EOVs, sea level height integrates several complex processes, whose interaction can dramatically affect coastal ecosystems and communities under a changing climate. The sea level rise under future scenarios represents a risk for people, coastal ecosystems, and infrastructure, particularly in the Mediterranean basin where millions of people live on coastal areas (Carillo et al. 2011; Sannino et al. 2022). Similarly, rising Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) can also significantly affect the current equilibrium of our oceans, as well as several economic activities that traditionally exploit marine resources. Within the Med-CORDEX initiative, we developed an improved version of the regional Earth system model ENEA-REG (Anav et al. 2021) specifically designed to downscale the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) (Eyring et al. 2016) over the Mediterranean basin. CMIP6 is the latest phase of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) initiative, aimed at improving our understanding of past, present and future climate ' Obs Obs Obs =+ 2) The bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-HR boundary conditions (ESM bc) are then constructed by replacing the climatological mean from Eq. 1 with the climatological mean of the reanalysis computed from Eq. 2: ' bc ESM Obs ESM =+ 3)

Research Square (Research Square), Jul 1, 2021

We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historica... more We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historical run, and a RCP8.5 scenario simulation reaching the year 2100. The simulations are performed with MED16, a new, tideincluding implementation of the MITgcm model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a resolution of 1/16°, further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Validation of the hindcast simulation against observations and numerical reanalyses has given excellent results, proving that the model is also capable of reproducing near-shore sea level variations. Moreover, the spatial structure of the elevation eld compares well with altimetric observations, especially in the Western basin, due to the use of improved sea level information at the Atlantic lateral boundary and to the adequate treatment of the complex, hydraulically driven dynamics across the Gibraltar Strait. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, the temperature is projected to generally increase while the surface salinity decreases in the portion of the Mediterranean affected by the penetration of the Atlantic stream, and increases elsewhere. The warming of sea waters results in the partial inhibition of deep-water formation. The scenario simulation allows for a detailed characterization of the regional patterns of future sea level, arising from ocean dynamics, and indicates a relative sinking of the Mediterranean with respect to the Atlantic more pronounced than the current one. Explicit tidal forcing and an accurate resolution of the Gibraltar Strait are proved to be key features in the designing of numerical simulations for the Mediterranean Sea.

Frontiers in Energy Research, Jan 9, 2023

In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability ... more In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability of the circulation in the North Ionian Sea, which in the last three decades has been dominated by the so-called Bimodal Oscillation (BIOS). Here we further investigate this topic, both in the context of present climate and in a future scenario, analyzing the results of simulations made with the MED16 model. MED16 is a new, tide-including implementation of the MITgcm oceanic model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a horizontal resolution of 1/16° that is further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Three simulations have been performed: a hindcast run (1980-2010), used to validate the model; a historical run (1980-2005), which provides initial conditions for the scenario simulation; and a future climate (2006-2100) simulation, using atmospheric forcing under the Rcp8.5 emission scenario.The hindcast run shows a variability of the surface circulation that is in good agreement with the observations, and indicates that during the period 1980–2010 the surface variability in the north Ionian is poorly correlated to that of the wind stress curl. The inversions of the circulation (switch from cyclonic to anticyclonic) that have been observed, and are well reproduced by the model, are apparently controlled by the Eastern Mediterranean Transient phenomenon: the huge volume of dense water produced by the Aegean Sea is the only forcing that may explain the strong anticyclonic surface circulation during the period 1993-1998. After that a prolonged cyclonic phase sets in, which weakens only during the 2004-2006 period.On the other hand, the climatic projection over the next century shows a prevalence of the cyclonic circulation, well correlated to the prevalent positive wind stress curl, and three clear inversions in which both the wind stress curl and the anomalies of dense water of Adriatic and Aegean origin appear to play a role. The simulation shows that the variability in the region is also affected by the strengthening and weakening of the cyclonic cell itself, which can modulate the ingression of the Atlantic Ionian Stream from the Sicily Strait and its path. This indicates that the multidecadal variability of the north Ionian circulation can play an important role in the control of the transport of the surface salinity in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, even in extreme climatic conditions.

Demonstration, Testing and Modelling Deploy demonstration projects to generate learnings necessar... more Demonstration, Testing and Modelling Deploy demonstration projects to generate learnings necessary for commercialisation *** Technology development through validated numerical models and small-scale prototypes ** Materials, Components and Systems Develop high quality seaworthy materials ** Condition monitoring systems to optimise operation and maintenance ** Validation of components and subsystems ***

Climate Dynamics, Jan 21, 2022

We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historica... more We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historical run, and a RCP8.5 scenario simulation reaching the year 2100. The simulations are performed with MED16, a new, tideincluding implementation of the MITgcm model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a resolution of 1/16°, further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Validation of the hindcast simulation against observations and numerical reanalyses has given excellent results, proving that the model is also capable of reproducing near-shore sea level variations. Moreover, the spatial structure of the elevation eld compares well with altimetric observations, especially in the Western basin, due to the use of improved sea level information at the Atlantic lateral boundary and to the adequate treatment of the complex, hydraulically driven dynamics across the Gibraltar Strait. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, the temperature is projected to generally increase while the surface salinity decreases in the portion of the Mediterranean affected by the penetration of the Atlantic stream, and increases elsewhere. The warming of sea waters results in the partial inhibition of deep-water formation. The scenario simulation allows for a detailed characterization of the regional patterns of future sea level, arising from ocean dynamics, and indicates a relative sinking of the Mediterranean with respect to the Atlantic more pronounced than the current one. Explicit tidal forcing and an accurate resolution of the Gibraltar Strait are proved to be key features in the designing of numerical simulations for the Mediterranean Sea.

In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability ... more In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability of the circulation in the North Ionian Sea, which in the last three decades has been dominated by the so-called Bimodal Oscillation (BIOS). Here we further investigate this topic, both in the context of present climate and in a future scenario, analyzing the results of simulations made with the MED16 model. MED16 is a new, tide-including implementation of the MITgcm oceanic model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a horizontal resolution of 1/16° that is further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Three simulations have been performed: a hindcast run (1980-2010), used to validate the model; a historical run (1980-2005), which provides initial conditions for the scenario simulation; and a future climate (2006-2100) simulation, using atmospheric forcing under the Rcp8.5 emission scenario.The hindcast run shows a variability of the surface circulation that is ...

Frontiers in Energy Research

Availability of detailed short-term forecasts of the ocean main characteristics (circulation and ... more Availability of detailed short-term forecasts of the ocean main characteristics (circulation and waves) is essential for a correct management of the human activities insisting on coastal areas. These activities include the extraction of renewable energy, which has developed in recent years, and will play an important role in the context of future blue growth. The present work describes the implementation of a new ocean operational system, named MITO, that provides daily 5 days forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea circulation. Distinctive features of this system are the inclusion of the main effects of the tidal forcing, both local and propagating from the Atlantic, and the high spatial detail. The horizontal resolution is of 1/48° (about 2 km) in most of the computational domain, and is smoothly increased (down to few hundred meters) in key passages, such as the Gibraltar Strait and the Turkish Straits, to correctly resolve the complex local dynamics. Initial and boundary conditions f...

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2019

Ecological structure and mapping of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the island of Pantelleria (Sout... more Ecological structure and mapping of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the island of Pantelleria (South Tyrrhenian): a selected site to detect sea wave energy / Micheli, C.; Borfecchia, F.; De Cecco, L.; Belmonte, A.; Bracco, G.; Mattiazzo, G.; Struglia, M. V.; Sannino, G.. In: NOTIZIARIO DELLA SOCIETÀ BOTANICA ITALIANA. ISSN 2532-8034. 1(2017), pp. 72-72. Original Ecological structure and mapping of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the island of Pantelleria (South Tyrrhenian): a selected site to detect sea wave energy

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hots... more The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemi...

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 1992

We investigate by Monte Carlo simulation the thermodynamic behavior of a linear heteropolymer in ... more We investigate by Monte Carlo simulation the thermodynamic behavior of a linear heteropolymer in which the interaction between different monomers contains a quenched random component. We show the existence, along with the usual coil and globule ones, of a new phase, the folded phase, characterized by long relaxation times and by the existence of few stable states.

Monthly Weather Review, 2002

A previsional system for the forecast of the state of the Mediterranean Sea and of surges in the ... more A previsional system for the forecast of the state of the Mediterranean Sea and of surges in the northern Adriatic Sea has been designed and tested. The system consists of a limited area model (the Bologna Limited Area Model, BOLAM), which computes high-resolution pressure and surface wind fields, to serve as the input of a wave model (WAM) and of a shallow water model (two-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model, POM-2D). Results of two case studies are presented, chosen to test the ability of the system to predict extreme surge events originating from cyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean basin. The two case studies cover the periods 4-9 October 1998 and 11-22 November 1996. Comparison with observed buoy data shows that the results of the WAM simulations forced by the wind fields obtained from the high-resolution BOLAM model are significantly better than those obtained using a lower-resolution forcing from the ECMWF analyses. Two domains corresponding to the entire Mediterranean basin and to the Adriatic-Ionian basin, respectively, have been used to run the POM-2D model. It is found that, in the Adriatic-Ionian run, the simulated sea elevation shows some discrepances in the amplitudes of the main peaks and in their phases, which are removed by extending the domain of integration to the entire Mediterranean. This better performance is due to the correct representation of the principal barotropic modes and of the pressure forcing on the basin.

Fluid Mechanics and its Applications, 1996

In order to characterize the statistical properties of fully developed turbulence[l], one usually... more In order to characterize the statistical properties of fully developed turbulence[l], one usually studies the scaling properties of moments of velocity differences at the scale r: spleft(rright)==s_p \left( r \right) = =spleft(rright)== (1) where stands for ensemble average and v is the velocity component parallel to r.

Frontiers in Energy Research

Ocean Energy is now emerging as a viable long-term form of renewable energy, which might contribu... more Ocean Energy is now emerging as a viable long-term form of renewable energy, which might contribute around 10% of EU power demand by 2050, if sufficient support is guaranteed along its road to full commercialization, allowing to further demonstrate the reliability, robustness and overall economic competitiveness of technologies. Although wave energy is still less developed than other marine renewables, its high density, great potential and minimal environmental impact have renewed the interest of developers, investors and governments globally, also in view of the increasing awareness of climate change and of the necessity to reduce carbon emissions. In parallel with technological development, the reliable characterization of wave climate and of the associated energy resource is crucial to the design of efficient Wave Energy Converters and to an effective site-technology matching, especially in low-energy seas. The preliminary scrutiny of suitable technologies and the identification ...

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2018

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Oct 11, 2023

In the framework of the coordinated regional modeling initiative Med-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional... more In the framework of the coordinated regional modeling initiative Med-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), we present an updated version of the regional Earth System Model ENEA-REG designed to downscale, over the Mediterranean basin, the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The regional ESM includes coupled atmosphere (WRF), ocean (MITgcm), land (Noah-MP, embedded within WRF), and river (HD) components with spatial resolution of 12 km for the atmosphere, 1/12° for the ocean and 0.5° for the river rooting model. For the present climate, we performed a hindcast (i.e. reanalysis-driven) and a historical simulation (GCM-driven) over the 1980-2014 temporal period. The evaluation shows that the regional ESM reliably reproduces the mean state, spatial and temporal variability of the relevant atmospheric and ocean variables. In addition, we analyze the future evolution (2015-2100) of the Euro-Mediterranean climate under three different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), focusing on several relevant essential climate variables and climate indicators for impacts. Among others, results highlight how, for the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the intensity, frequency and duration of marine heat waves continue to increase until the end of the century and anomalies of up to 2°C, which are considered extreme at the beginning of this century, will become the norm in less than a hundred years under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Overall, our results demonstrate the improvement due to the high-resolution air-sea coupling for the representation of high impact events, such as marine heat waves, and sea-level height. circulation features (Cardoso and Soares 2022; Drobinski et al. 2018) at resolutions ranging between 12 and 25 km (Kotlarski et al. 2014; Fantini et al. 2018). Furthermore, regional models provide improved resolution of the spatial patterns and seasonal cycles of precipitation, including extremes (e.g., Heikkilä et al. 2011; Giorgi and Gutowski 2015). The results of these coordinated regional modelling initiatives have allowed the scientific community to define a number of climatic quantities that are relevant to socioeconomic sectors and natural systems (Ranasinghe et al. 2021). Additionally, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS-https://gcos.wmo.int/en/home) developed the concept of essential climate variables (ECVs), namely relevant parameters for the characterization of Earth's climate. ECVs can be either physical, chemical or biological, single or grouped (due to their joint concurrence in determining critical processes). They provide reliable, traceable, observation-based evidence that enables the accurate modelling and prediction that support policy development and adaptation planning, by helping scientists understand the drivers of past, current, and future climate variability (GCOS 2016). ECVs also provide a benchmark for climate model validation and guidance as to the essential variables that should constitute the standard output of any numerical experiment. Among ECVs, temperature and precipitation are known to affect a wide variety of processes and systems, with important consequences for natural ecosystems and human society. Similarly, the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS-https://www.goosocean.org/), defined a list of critical variables (Essential Ocean Variables, i.e. EOVs). Among EOVs, sea level height integrates several complex processes, whose interaction can dramatically affect coastal ecosystems and communities under a changing climate. The sea level rise under future scenarios represents a risk for people, coastal ecosystems, and infrastructure, particularly in the Mediterranean basin where millions of people live on coastal areas (Carillo et al. 2011; Sannino et al. 2022). Similarly, rising Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) can also significantly affect the current equilibrium of our oceans, as well as several economic activities that traditionally exploit marine resources. Within the Med-CORDEX initiative, we developed an improved version of the regional Earth system model ENEA-REG (Anav et al. 2021) specifically designed to downscale the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) (Eyring et al. 2016) over the Mediterranean basin. CMIP6 is the latest phase of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) initiative, aimed at improving our understanding of past, present and future climate ' Obs Obs Obs =+ 2) The bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-HR boundary conditions (ESM bc) are then constructed by replacing the climatological mean from Eq. 1 with the climatological mean of the reanalysis computed from Eq. 2: ' bc ESM Obs ESM =+ 3)

Research Square (Research Square), Jul 1, 2021

We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historica... more We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historical run, and a RCP8.5 scenario simulation reaching the year 2100. The simulations are performed with MED16, a new, tideincluding implementation of the MITgcm model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a resolution of 1/16°, further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Validation of the hindcast simulation against observations and numerical reanalyses has given excellent results, proving that the model is also capable of reproducing near-shore sea level variations. Moreover, the spatial structure of the elevation eld compares well with altimetric observations, especially in the Western basin, due to the use of improved sea level information at the Atlantic lateral boundary and to the adequate treatment of the complex, hydraulically driven dynamics across the Gibraltar Strait. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, the temperature is projected to generally increase while the surface salinity decreases in the portion of the Mediterranean affected by the penetration of the Atlantic stream, and increases elsewhere. The warming of sea waters results in the partial inhibition of deep-water formation. The scenario simulation allows for a detailed characterization of the regional patterns of future sea level, arising from ocean dynamics, and indicates a relative sinking of the Mediterranean with respect to the Atlantic more pronounced than the current one. Explicit tidal forcing and an accurate resolution of the Gibraltar Strait are proved to be key features in the designing of numerical simulations for the Mediterranean Sea.

Frontiers in Energy Research, Jan 9, 2023

In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability ... more In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability of the circulation in the North Ionian Sea, which in the last three decades has been dominated by the so-called Bimodal Oscillation (BIOS). Here we further investigate this topic, both in the context of present climate and in a future scenario, analyzing the results of simulations made with the MED16 model. MED16 is a new, tide-including implementation of the MITgcm oceanic model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a horizontal resolution of 1/16° that is further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Three simulations have been performed: a hindcast run (1980-2010), used to validate the model; a historical run (1980-2005), which provides initial conditions for the scenario simulation; and a future climate (2006-2100) simulation, using atmospheric forcing under the Rcp8.5 emission scenario.The hindcast run shows a variability of the surface circulation that is in good agreement with the observations, and indicates that during the period 1980–2010 the surface variability in the north Ionian is poorly correlated to that of the wind stress curl. The inversions of the circulation (switch from cyclonic to anticyclonic) that have been observed, and are well reproduced by the model, are apparently controlled by the Eastern Mediterranean Transient phenomenon: the huge volume of dense water produced by the Aegean Sea is the only forcing that may explain the strong anticyclonic surface circulation during the period 1993-1998. After that a prolonged cyclonic phase sets in, which weakens only during the 2004-2006 period.On the other hand, the climatic projection over the next century shows a prevalence of the cyclonic circulation, well correlated to the prevalent positive wind stress curl, and three clear inversions in which both the wind stress curl and the anomalies of dense water of Adriatic and Aegean origin appear to play a role. The simulation shows that the variability in the region is also affected by the strengthening and weakening of the cyclonic cell itself, which can modulate the ingression of the Atlantic Ionian Stream from the Sicily Strait and its path. This indicates that the multidecadal variability of the north Ionian circulation can play an important role in the control of the transport of the surface salinity in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, even in extreme climatic conditions.

Demonstration, Testing and Modelling Deploy demonstration projects to generate learnings necessar... more Demonstration, Testing and Modelling Deploy demonstration projects to generate learnings necessary for commercialisation *** Technology development through validated numerical models and small-scale prototypes ** Materials, Components and Systems Develop high quality seaworthy materials ** Condition monitoring systems to optimise operation and maintenance ** Validation of components and subsystems ***

Climate Dynamics, Jan 21, 2022

We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historica... more We present results of three simulations of the Mediterranean Sea climate: a hindcast, a historical run, and a RCP8.5 scenario simulation reaching the year 2100. The simulations are performed with MED16, a new, tideincluding implementation of the MITgcm model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a resolution of 1/16°, further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Validation of the hindcast simulation against observations and numerical reanalyses has given excellent results, proving that the model is also capable of reproducing near-shore sea level variations. Moreover, the spatial structure of the elevation eld compares well with altimetric observations, especially in the Western basin, due to the use of improved sea level information at the Atlantic lateral boundary and to the adequate treatment of the complex, hydraulically driven dynamics across the Gibraltar Strait. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, the temperature is projected to generally increase while the surface salinity decreases in the portion of the Mediterranean affected by the penetration of the Atlantic stream, and increases elsewhere. The warming of sea waters results in the partial inhibition of deep-water formation. The scenario simulation allows for a detailed characterization of the regional patterns of future sea level, arising from ocean dynamics, and indicates a relative sinking of the Mediterranean with respect to the Atlantic more pronounced than the current one. Explicit tidal forcing and an accurate resolution of the Gibraltar Strait are proved to be key features in the designing of numerical simulations for the Mediterranean Sea.

In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability ... more In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability of the circulation in the North Ionian Sea, which in the last three decades has been dominated by the so-called Bimodal Oscillation (BIOS). Here we further investigate this topic, both in the context of present climate and in a future scenario, analyzing the results of simulations made with the MED16 model. MED16 is a new, tide-including implementation of the MITgcm oceanic model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a horizontal resolution of 1/16° that is further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Three simulations have been performed: a hindcast run (1980-2010), used to validate the model; a historical run (1980-2005), which provides initial conditions for the scenario simulation; and a future climate (2006-2100) simulation, using atmospheric forcing under the Rcp8.5 emission scenario.The hindcast run shows a variability of the surface circulation that is ...

Frontiers in Energy Research

Availability of detailed short-term forecasts of the ocean main characteristics (circulation and ... more Availability of detailed short-term forecasts of the ocean main characteristics (circulation and waves) is essential for a correct management of the human activities insisting on coastal areas. These activities include the extraction of renewable energy, which has developed in recent years, and will play an important role in the context of future blue growth. The present work describes the implementation of a new ocean operational system, named MITO, that provides daily 5 days forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea circulation. Distinctive features of this system are the inclusion of the main effects of the tidal forcing, both local and propagating from the Atlantic, and the high spatial detail. The horizontal resolution is of 1/48° (about 2 km) in most of the computational domain, and is smoothly increased (down to few hundred meters) in key passages, such as the Gibraltar Strait and the Turkish Straits, to correctly resolve the complex local dynamics. Initial and boundary conditions f...

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2019

Ecological structure and mapping of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the island of Pantelleria (Sout... more Ecological structure and mapping of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the island of Pantelleria (South Tyrrhenian): a selected site to detect sea wave energy / Micheli, C.; Borfecchia, F.; De Cecco, L.; Belmonte, A.; Bracco, G.; Mattiazzo, G.; Struglia, M. V.; Sannino, G.. In: NOTIZIARIO DELLA SOCIETÀ BOTANICA ITALIANA. ISSN 2532-8034. 1(2017), pp. 72-72. Original Ecological structure and mapping of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the island of Pantelleria (South Tyrrhenian): a selected site to detect sea wave energy

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hots... more The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemi...

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 1992

We investigate by Monte Carlo simulation the thermodynamic behavior of a linear heteropolymer in ... more We investigate by Monte Carlo simulation the thermodynamic behavior of a linear heteropolymer in which the interaction between different monomers contains a quenched random component. We show the existence, along with the usual coil and globule ones, of a new phase, the folded phase, characterized by long relaxation times and by the existence of few stable states.

Monthly Weather Review, 2002

A previsional system for the forecast of the state of the Mediterranean Sea and of surges in the ... more A previsional system for the forecast of the state of the Mediterranean Sea and of surges in the northern Adriatic Sea has been designed and tested. The system consists of a limited area model (the Bologna Limited Area Model, BOLAM), which computes high-resolution pressure and surface wind fields, to serve as the input of a wave model (WAM) and of a shallow water model (two-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model, POM-2D). Results of two case studies are presented, chosen to test the ability of the system to predict extreme surge events originating from cyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean basin. The two case studies cover the periods 4-9 October 1998 and 11-22 November 1996. Comparison with observed buoy data shows that the results of the WAM simulations forced by the wind fields obtained from the high-resolution BOLAM model are significantly better than those obtained using a lower-resolution forcing from the ECMWF analyses. Two domains corresponding to the entire Mediterranean basin and to the Adriatic-Ionian basin, respectively, have been used to run the POM-2D model. It is found that, in the Adriatic-Ionian run, the simulated sea elevation shows some discrepances in the amplitudes of the main peaks and in their phases, which are removed by extending the domain of integration to the entire Mediterranean. This better performance is due to the correct representation of the principal barotropic modes and of the pressure forcing on the basin.

Fluid Mechanics and its Applications, 1996

In order to characterize the statistical properties of fully developed turbulence[l], one usually... more In order to characterize the statistical properties of fully developed turbulence[l], one usually studies the scaling properties of moments of velocity differences at the scale r: spleft(rright)==s_p \left( r \right) = =spleft(rright)== (1) where stands for ensemble average and v is the velocity component parallel to r.

Frontiers in Energy Research

Ocean Energy is now emerging as a viable long-term form of renewable energy, which might contribu... more Ocean Energy is now emerging as a viable long-term form of renewable energy, which might contribute around 10% of EU power demand by 2050, if sufficient support is guaranteed along its road to full commercialization, allowing to further demonstrate the reliability, robustness and overall economic competitiveness of technologies. Although wave energy is still less developed than other marine renewables, its high density, great potential and minimal environmental impact have renewed the interest of developers, investors and governments globally, also in view of the increasing awareness of climate change and of the necessity to reduce carbon emissions. In parallel with technological development, the reliable characterization of wave climate and of the associated energy resource is crucial to the design of efficient Wave Energy Converters and to an effective site-technology matching, especially in low-energy seas. The preliminary scrutiny of suitable technologies and the identification ...

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2018