Michel Bakkenes - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Michel Bakkenes

Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic d... more Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide ecosystem services while also mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline.We found that both conservation strategies result in a reduction in the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, but without additional measures to achieve effective...

The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for ar... more The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and climate change. This policy report provides scenario projections for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook, exploring future changes to the use and condition of land and the resulting impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity.

Land Degradation & Development, 2016

The research community increasingly analyses global environmental problems like climate change an... more The research community increasingly analyses global environmental problems like climate change and desertification with models. These global environmental modelling studies require global, high resolution, spatially exhaustive, and quantitative data describing the soil profile. This study aimed to develop a pedological approach that takes stock of available legacy and auxiliary data to create a global, 30 arc second soil property database for modelling. The methodology uses the Harmonized World Soil Database and the ISRIC‐WISE 3.1 soil profile database. Auxiliary information at 30 arc second resolution for various landscape properties is used to describe the variation in landscape properties (temperature and precipitation, topography, elevation, land use, and land cover). Complex mapping units of the HWSD were first disaggregated using a digital elevation model and toposequences to generate delineated areas described by a single soil type. Secondly, ranges of soil properties per soil type were determined using the soil profile data. Then a meta‐analysis on a broad literature survey was used to develop a simple model that, based on landscape properties at a particular location, determines the position within these ranges and thus provides an estimation of the local soil properties. Finally, the model was implemented at the global level to determine the distribution of soil properties. The methodology, denominated S‐World (Soils of the world) resulted in readily available, high resolution, global soil property maps that are now available for environmental modelling. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental Science & Technology, 2017

It is increasingly recognized that human consumption leads to considerable losses of biodiversity... more It is increasingly recognized that human consumption leads to considerable losses of biodiversity. This study is the first to systematically quantify these losses in relation to land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production and consumption of (inter)nationally traded goods and services by presenting consumption-based biodiversity losses, in short biodiversity footprint, for 45 countries and world regions globally. Our results showed that (i) the biodiversity loss per citizen shows large variations among countries, with higher values when per-capita income increases; (ii) the share of biodiversity losses due to GHG emissions in the biodiversity footprint increases with income; (iii) food consumption is the most important driver of biodiversity loss in most of the countries and regions, with a global average of 40%; (iv) more than 50% of the biodiversity loss associated with consumption in developed economies occurs outside their territorial boundaries; and (v) the biodiversity footprint per dollar consumed is lower for wealthier countries. The insights provided by our analysis might support policymakers in developing adequate responses to avert further losses of biodiversity when population and incomes increase. Both the mitigation of GHG emissions and land use related reduction options in production and consumption should be considered in strategies to protect global biodiversity.

Iterative proportional fitting (IPF) is a calibration technique for estimating cell frequencies o... more Iterative proportional fitting (IPF) is a calibration technique for estimating cell frequencies of a matrix (contingency table) using known marginals (row and column totals of the matrix) based on data source A, and an initial estimation of the cell frequencies based on data source B under the condition that known marginals are reproduced. IPF is a commonly used procedure in

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2009

View the article online for updates and enhancements. You may also like Socio-climatic analysis, ... more View the article online for updates and enhancements. You may also like Socio-climatic analysis, modeling, and prediction Noah Diffenbaugh-The Si vacancy: an example of a pressuresensitive Jahn-Teller system E Tarnow-Dissociation of hydrogen molecules on metal filaments in Hion sources

OECD Environmental Outlook, 2012

As a part of the decision support system 'De Natuurplanner' the vegetation model MOVE i... more As a part of the decision support system 'De Natuurplanner' the vegetation model MOVE is primarily applied to national environmental outlooks. MOVE uses multiple logistic regression to predict the incidence of plant species as a function of environmental conditions. Over 900 plant species are included in MOVE. The response functions of MOVE 2 used eutrofication, acidification and moisture as explanatory variables. This study extends the model with variables in the areas of vegetation structure, heavy metals, salinity and regional differences. The empirical basis for the response curves was also enlarged to over 100,000 records and the models statistically tested.

Diversity and Distributions, 2014

Aim To assess the exposure of 10 spider species to two drivers of global change (climate and land... more Aim To assess the exposure of 10 spider species to two drivers of global change (climate and land use), the suitability of the current network of protected areas with respect to this exposure, and the implications for a national conservation programme. Location The western Palearctic and France. Methods We predicted the current and future potential distributions of 10 spider species using species distribution models (SDMs). We explicitly quantified uncertainties in the models and estimated the future environmental suitability with discounted uncertainty. We analysed the predicted future suitability for protected versus unprotected occurrence cells. Results In this first forecast of the future of multiple spider species in the face of environmental changes, we showed that environmental changes could be confidently predicted to have serious impacts on all the studied species, with significant range contractions and expansions within a relatively short timescale (up to 2050). We predicted that for seven of the 10 species, the current network of protected areas will conserve at least one occurrence cell in suitable conditions in the future. However, we showed that there is considerable room for improvement. Main conclusions This study illustrated how SDMs could be applied to a conservation programme for an understudied taxon such as spiders, in spite of significant uncertainties in their predictions. In addition, the uncertainties raised here compel us to emphasize the pressing need to improve our knowledge on understudied taxa such as spiders. We advocate the necessity of increasing monitoring schemes, experiments and forecasts of environmental change effects on a larger and more diversified range of species than is currently the case in the literature.

Land Degradation & Development, 2017

The food security–climate change nexus rapidly gains momentum. Soil degradation plays an importan... more The food security–climate change nexus rapidly gains momentum. Soil degradation plays an important role in this context while dealing with, for example, the productive capacity of our soil resources or carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. However, little has been done to assess the pristine soil conditions despite the fact that these provide the basis to put changes into context. Various methodologies have been developed to assess the global distribution of current soil conditions. We used the S‐World methodology that was developed to generate global soil property maps for environmental modelling studies. Up till now, the S‐World methodology assessed current soil conditions by disaggregating the Harmonized World Soil Database using detailed information on climate, topography, land cover, and land use. This study used the S‐World methodology to derive global soil conditions under natural vegetation. A large number of natural areas around the globe were identified for w...

Nature

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distribut... more Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of...

Developments in sectors such as agriculture, wood production, water management and fisheries larg... more Developments in sectors such as agriculture, wood production, water management and fisheries largely shape the world’s current and future biodiversity, as they exert direct pressures on biodiversity. These sectors depend on biodiversity and ecosystems in various ways to provide food, fiber, wood, bio-energy, fish and clean water for the world’s growing human population. This report looks at how these sectors can contribute to halting the loss of biodiversity and improving its sustainable use. It also presents long-term options for the sectors to reduce their impact on biodiversity. To improve, speed-up and scale-up the integration of biodiversity within sectors effectively, the authors suggest the following four strategies: (1) use integrated land, water and seascape approaches to reap benefits from ecosystem services across landscapes, inland water and marine environments and deal with trade-offs; (2) heighten the attention to biodiversity within emerging voluntary sustainability i...