Paolo Molinari - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Paolo Molinari

Wildlife Biology, Jun 1, 2002

BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access t... more BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Acta Theriologica, Jun 10, 2000

We examined 617 kills made by radio-tracked Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx (Linnaeus, 1758) from March 1... more We examined 617 kills made by radio-tracked Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx (Linnaeus, 1758) from March 1988 to May 1998 to assess prey spectrum, preference, and food consumption rates in the Swiss Jura Mountains. Roe deer Capreolus capreolus and chamois Rupicapra rupicapra were the main prey (69 and 22%, respectively), followed by red fox Vulpes uulpes, brown hare Lepus europaeus, domestic cat Felis calus, wild cat Felis sylvestris, marmot Marmota marmola, pine marten Martes martes, capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, and badger Meles meles. Lynx fed on an ungulate prey from 1 to 7 days, depending on the prey category. The consumption rates of males, of females alone, and of females with kittens varied from 3.2 to 4.9 kg per night, with an increasing trend as the kittens grew older. Including the days when lynx had no kill (searching time) lynx consumed 2 ± 0.9 kg per night. The mean searching time was 1.5-2 days for females, depending on the season and the number of kittens, and 2.5 days for males. The mean interval between consecutive kills was 5.9 for males and 5.2 days for females, respectively. At 38% of carcasses the presence of one or several scavengers (red fox, raven Coruus corax or both) was detected. Although 69% of the kills were roe deer and only 22% chamois, we hypothesise that in the forests of the Jura Mountains chamois are more vulnerable to lynx predation than roe deer, as chamois had a slightly higher preference index (0.59) than roe deer (0.41), based on rough estimates of the two ungulate populations in the study area.

Nature Conservation

Determination of parentage provides valuable information for the conservation of wild populations... more Determination of parentage provides valuable information for the conservation of wild populations, for instance, by allowing the monitoring of breeding success and inbreeding. Between 1999 and 2002, nine brown bears (Ursus arctos) were translocated to augment the remnant population of a few surviving individuals in the Italian Alps, but only part of them reproduced, with a higher inbreeding risk occurrence in the long-time. Currently, in the Alpine population, parentage tests are assessed through the analysis of 15 microsatellite loci (STRs), but the reduction of genetic variability in future generations will need the use of additional informative markers. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been proven to be useful and reliable in individual identification and family reconstruction; moreover, they can perform well on low-quality samples. In this study, we analysed 51 SNPs to generate a SNP multilocus genotype dataset of 54 Alpine brown bears (Ursus arctos) and compared its ...

for their direction and ideas in the early conceptual phases of developing this guidebook. Thank ... more for their direction and ideas in the early conceptual phases of developing this guidebook. Thank you Jennifer C. Ellis for your helpful editorial comments on earlier versions of this guidebook. Special thanks to Greg Neudecker, Jim Stone, David Mannix, and Denny Iverson for all of your mentorship over the years. And thanks to Jamie Jonkel and Liz Bradley of MT Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks-two of the very best wildlife ambassadors that I have had the privilege to work with. The landowners, ranchers, and all partners that make up the Blackfoot Challenge have been invaluable mentors and teachers-thank you.

Abstract: The purpose of these guidelines is to explain the principles of monitoring and the opti... more Abstract: The purpose of these guidelines is to explain the principles of monitoring and the options and problems of monitoring lynx. The Balkan lynx is now below what we can consider to be a viable population. Conservation measures are urgently needed to stop further decline and to allow the Balkan lynx recovering. In order to define adequate measures, we first need a vigorous survey of the present status of the population- distribution, density- and its ecology- habitat, prey species. A subsequent conservation programme will be an adaptive process. Consequently, we will need a continuous control of the effect of conservation measures taken, allowing adaptative responses in conservation measures wherever needed. These guidelines should facilitate the design of an initial survey, which then can be extended into a monitoring programme. The recommendations made in this document are mainly based on the experience with the monitoring of the lynx populations in Switzerland and in the Alp...

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, Jan 16, 2018

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, there is a need to study their distribution to det... more As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, there is a need to study their distribution to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for conflicts with human activities. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior and large home range size. In Europe, most current monitoring protocols rely on multiple detection methods, which can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes; false negatives and false positives. When not accounted for, both can bias estimates from species distribution models (SDMs). False negative detections can be accounted for in SDMs that deal with imperfect detection. In contrast, false positive detections, due to species misidentification, have only rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc methods to avoid false positives through data filtering...

Wildlife Biology, 2007

To analyse the factors responsible for the interplay of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx predation and hom... more To analyse the factors responsible for the interplay of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx predation and home-range size, we reviewed patterns of lynx predation in Switzerland by comparing the prey spectrum of lynx in five studies performed in the following study areas: the northwestern Alps, where lynx were studied both in the 1980s and 1990s, the central Alps, the Jura Mountains, and northeastern Switzerland. We then compared home-range size of female lynx with two indirect measures of prey abundance, roe deer Capreolus capreolus and chamois Rupicapra rupicapra harvested per km2 and habitat suitability for roe deer and chamois as derived from a GIS model. Lynx diets were similar among sites. Roe deer and chamois made up 90% of prey items in all five studies. Comparing the proportion of roe deer and chamois in the diet with availability, Manly's preference indices indicated selective predation in all studies. Roe deer were preferred over chamois in all areas except in the Jura Mountains where relatively few chamois were present. Predation was least selective in northeastern Switzerland, where the initial phase of recolonisation by lynx was studied. Variation in prey availability is often identified as an important factor explaining intraspecific variation in home-range size. Due to differences in roe deer and chamois abundance from one study area to another, we expected female lynx home ranges to decrease with increasing prey abundance. The predictors for Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP) and Kernel home-range estimators differed. MCP homerange sizes were best explained by the interactions of study with the number of locations per lynx, roe deer harvested per km2, and good roe deer habitat, whereas Kernel home-range sizes were best explained by the interactions of study with good roe deer habitat, good chamois habitat, and the interaction of good roe deer and chamois habitat plus an additive effect of the study. Contrary to our expectations, there was no simple correlation of prime roe deer and chamois habitat nor between the number of roe deer and chamois harvested per km2 and the size of female lynx home ranges. The comparison of the five studies suggested that this expectation may only be valid if lynx populations are close to carrying capacity (e.g. the Jura Mountains and the northwestern Alps in the 1990s). For predictions of home-range size both habitat (spatial factor) and the status and dynamic of the predator/prey populations (temporal factor) need to be taken into account.

Hystrix-italian Journal of Mammalogy, 2012

The project Status and Conservation of the Alpine Lynx Population (SCALP) is an ongoing program a... more The project Status and Conservation of the Alpine Lynx Population (SCALP) is an ongoing program aiming to co-ordinate the lynx monitoring and propose conservation activities in the Alps. The SCALP project was initiated from several active lynx researchers as an informal group in the early 1990s – twenty years after the reintroductions in Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia, and Austria. To propose adequate management measures, a sound monitoring of the Alpine lynx population needs to be in place. In the early 1990s the first efforts were made to put all available data on lynx presence together. The least common denominator of data collection in the Alps was – and still is – the compilation of direct and indirect signs of lynx presence. To standardise the interpretation of the data collected, SCALP experts agreed on a categorisation of occurrence records, where each record is evaluated retrospectively whether it can be verified for correct species identification and whether it has been veri...

To assess the status of lynx we analysed lynx signs of presence within the Ital- ian Alps from 20... more To assess the status of lynx we analysed lynx signs of presence within the Ital- ian Alps from 2000-2004. A total of 411 signs of lynx presence have been collected, compared to 261 signs during the previous pentad. Lynx tracks were the most frequent sign of presence, followed by prey remains and direct observations. Livestock depredation has so far not been a problem in Italy. Most of the presence signs (84%) are still concentrated in the Eastern Italian Alps in Friuli V.G. and the province of Belluno. A few confi rmed lynx signs of presence indicate a recolonisation of the Trentino Alto Adige region. In the western Alps (Piemonte region), most signs of lynx presence are concentrated close to the French border. The number of lynx occurring in Italy is roughly estimated to less than 20 individuals. The population cannot be considered

Animal Conservation

The Eurasian lynx is of special conservation concern based on the European Union's Habitat Direct... more The Eurasian lynx is of special conservation concern based on the European Union's Habitat Directive and its populations need to be maintained or restored at favourable conservation status. To evaluate lynx population status, appropriate monitoring needs to be in place. We modelled the distribution dynamics of lynx in the Alps (200 000 km 2) during 1994-2014 at a resolution of 100 km 2. Lynx distribution and detection probability varied by year, country, forest cover, elevation and distance to the nearest release site. Occupancy of neighbouring quadrats had a strong positive effect on colonization and persistence rates. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for imperfect detection: the raw data underestimated the lynx range by 55% on average, depending on country and winter. Over the past 20 years the Alpine lynx range has expanded at an average rate of 4% per year, which was partly due to the lynx translocations to new areas. Our approach to large-scale distribution modelling and analysing trends using site occupancy models can be applied retrospectively and is useful in many cases where a network of trained people is established to report the presence of target species, for example, in Europe where member states of the European Union have to report conservation status of species of community interest. Hence, dynamic occupancy models are an appealing framework for inference about the large-scale range dynamics based on opportunistic data and a useful tool for large-scale management and conservation programmes.

To assess the status of lynx we analysed lynx signs of presence within the range of the Italian A... more To assess the status of lynx we analysed lynx signs of presence within the range of the Italian Alps from 2005 to 2009. A total of 268 signs have been collected, compared to 411 signs during the previous pentad. The distribution of the confirmed signs of lynx presence is confined to three concise areas: the Northeastern Alps of Friuli VG, the Trentino province and the Ossola valley in the Piedmont region. Occupancy modelling revealed a decrease of the lynx range by one third: The estimated number of occupied 100 km 2 cells decreased from 34 (pentad: 2000-2004) to 21 (pentad: 2005-2009). Less than 10% of the Italian Alps are colonized. We estimated the number of lynx present in all the Italian Alps at less than 15 individuals. Therefore, the persistence of lynx in the Italian Alps highly depends on immigration from neighbouring countries.

REPRODUCTION OF THE GOLDEN JACKAL (CANIS AUREUS MOREOTICUS I. GEOFFROY SAINT HILAIRE, 1835) IN JU... more REPRODUCTION OF THE GOLDEN JACKAL (CANIS AUREUS MOREOTICUS I. GEOFFROY SAINT HILAIRE, 1835) IN JULIAN PRE-ALPS, WITH NEW DATA ON ITS RANGE-EXPANSION IN THE HIGH-ADRIATIC HINTERLAND (MAMMALIA, CARNIVORA, CANIDAE) Riassunto. Riproduzione dello sciacallo dorato (Canis aureus moreoticus I. Geoffroy Saint Hilaire, 1835) nelle Prealpi Giulie, con nuovi dati sulla sua espansione areale nell'entroterra alto-adriatico (Mammalia, Carnivora, Canidae). Vengono presentati alcuni dati sulla recente espansione dello sciacallo dorato Canis aureus moreoticus I. Geoffroy Saint Hilaire, 1835, nelle Prealpi italo-slovene, aggiornando le conoscenze sulla distribuzione della specie nell'entroterra Alto-Adriatico. In quest'area lo sciacallo ha recentemente aumentato la sua presenza, con varie evidenze che indicano la stabilizzazione dell'area di influenza di alcuni gruppi familiari sia in Italia, sia in Slovenia. Dal 2003, infatti, questo canide ha stabilizzato la posizione di alcuni punti...

Hystrix-the Italian …, 2001

To analyse the status and distribution of lynx in the Italian Alps from 1995 to 1999, all signs o... more To analyse the status and distribution of lynx in the Italian Alps from 1995 to 1999, all signs of lynx presence found were pooled, evaluated and interpreted with the same method, We distinguished three levels of reliability in accordance with the SCALP guidelines and the possibility to verify the collected data: Quality 1 (QI) represent the hard facts, e.g. all reports of lynx killed, found dead or photographs and videos of lynx. Quality 2 (Q2) include all records of wild prey remains, livestock killed, tracks and scats confirmed by people who attended special courses, e.g. mainly game and forest wardens. Quality 3 (Q3) are all signs of presence reported by the general public as well as all sightings and vocalisations, e.g. mainly signs that cannot be verified. A total of 261 signs of lynx presence were recorded in the Italian Alps, of which 85 were Q2, the remaining were Q3 as no Q1 data was reported. The Q2 data was confined to four different areas whereas the Q3 data showed a scattered distribution in all the Alps. The dynamics in the Italian Alps during the past pentad was characterised by four main events: (I) the positive trend that had been observed in the northeast of Friuli V.G. (the Tarvisiano) up until 1995 decreased, but (2) at the same time an increased number of data was reported from northeast of the Veneto (Province of Belluno). Consequently, in the southeastern Alps more data were collected over a bigger area than in the previous pentad. (3) The lynx occurrence of unknown origin in the Trentino has gone extinct again. And (4) the suspected presence of lynx in the Val d'Aosta and in the northernmost Piemonte (Val d'Ossola) was confirmed by Q2 data. In Italy, lynx still have not established a vital population even though suitable habitat is available from the southwestern through to the eastern Alps. With the exception of the new occurrence in the province of Belluno, lynx occur only in areas bordering with Slovenia and Switzerland, where vital populations exist. Italy will play an important role for the future of the lynx in the Alps, as its territory connects the two vital populations from Slovenia and Switzerland.

Animal Conservation, 2012

Acta Theriologica, 2001