Robert Tanton - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Robert Tanton

This material was produced with funding from the Australian Government and the Australian States ... more This material was produced with funding from the Australian Government and the Australian States and Territories. AHURI Ltd gratefully acknowledges the financial and other support it has received from the Australian, State and Territory governments, without which this work would not have been possible. AHURI comprises a network of twelve universities clustered into seven Research Centres across Australia. Research Centre contributions, both financial and in-kind, have made the completion of this report possible. DISCLAIMER AHURI Ltd is an independent, non-political body which has supported this project as part of its programme of research into housing and urban development, which it hopes will be of value to policy-makers, researchers, industry and communities. The opinions in this publication reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of AHURI Ltd, its Board or its funding organisations. No responsibility is accepted by AHURI Ltd or its Board or its funders for the accuracy or omission of any statement, opinion, advice or information in this publication.

Pain, Dec 24, 2019

This study models the economic costs of informal caring for people with back pain, using a micros... more This study models the economic costs of informal caring for people with back pain, using a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, from 2015 to 2030.

BMC Public Health, Jun 21, 2019

Background: Most studies measure the impact of ischemic heart disease (IHD) on individuals using ... more Background: Most studies measure the impact of ischemic heart disease (IHD) on individuals using quality of life metrics such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); however, IHD also has an enormous impact on productive life years (PLYs). The objective of this study was to project the indirect costs of IHD resulting from lost PLYs to older Australian workers (45-64 years), government, and society 2015-2030. Methods: Nationally representative data from the Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (2003, 2009) were used to develop the base population in the microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030), which integrated data from established microsimulation models (STINMOD, APPSIM), Treasury's population and workforce projections, and chronic conditions trends.

Building Simulation Conference Proceedings

This paper presents an innovative analysis of a likely scenario in developed countries: an ageing... more This paper presents an innovative analysis of a likely scenario in developed countries: an ageing population and an increase in energy efficiency of the building stock. In this paper we present the case of the city of Hamburg, Germany. The aim of this paper is to analyse the changing heat consumption patterns on a city with: (1) an ageing population and (2) a rapid increase in its building energy efficiency. For the analysis in this paper we compared demographic changes of the population and improvements on the building stock to a base scenario in 2010. The results from this analysis show: (1) the effect on energy reduction of different retrofit scenarios; and (2) Districts most affected by the explicit consideration of user behaviour in urban heat demand models.

NATSEM, University of Canberra, 2020

The 2020-21 federal budget is unprecedented. This is not only because it has been released later ... more The 2020-21 federal budget is unprecedented. This is not only because it has been released later than usual and during a global health pandemic. It is also because of the high level of uncertainty about our economy and society. This makes for a very different independent modelling of this year's budget. Such is the degree of income and related shock that is still reverberating through the community, many of the traditional forms of data used each budget are less accessible or reliable. Taking a conservative approach to analysis, this has resulted in NATSEM curtailing the usual scope of this report. It has also seen our team adopt creative new ways to compensate. These unprecedented events have also made for a very different budget to those that recently came before. It is a federal budget that sets records in terms of spending and debt, when just months ago the national priority was returning the budget into the black. The key theme of this year's budget is that business will lead the economic recovery across Australia. This budget espouses investment in tax cuts, wage subsidies and asset write-offs as a path to this recovery. Along with many other measures, this is predicted to lift gross debt to over 1 trillion dollars by 2024. This will result in a huge financial deficit. This is not necessarily a bad thing for a Government seeking to cushion the blow of large job losses and to get the economy back on track. This is particularly the case at a time when the interest costs of lending money are so low. A little over a decade ago, when faced with the Global Financial Crisis, we saw a similar response from Government to help protect Australia from the dire economic impacts seen overseas. Over the last decade, NATSEM has focussed its analysis around how the federal budget impacts everyday Australians and households. This continues this year. We have maintained an emphasis on those who may be missing out in society, particularly in terms of poverty and income inequity. This also continues this year. Over the years, what has been central in our work is basing our reports on solid data and impartial analysis. Again, this year's data comes from a number of widely available sources at budget time but is complemented and made unique by integration with our microsimulation model of the Tax/Transfer system, STINMOD+. This enables us to map out the full economic and welfare impacts of budget 2020-21. This year, our team has again crunched the numbers. But it has been a particularly tough year. Our Tax/Transfer model draws on pre COVID data at a time when there have been huge changes in the labour force due to COVID-19. The Australian Bureau of Statistics {ABS} has done a magnificent job this year using data from the Tax Office (One Touch payroll data) to compensate for such gaps and present data on the changes to employment as soon as is possible. Our team has taken this information analysed it and presented it by industry, and more recently by geography, right across Australia. Led by Professor Jinjing Li, our team have used these data, other current data and our STINMOD+ tool to develop a new Australian "nowcasting" model. This is a significant achievement and provides leaders and policymakers with near real time analysis at a time when data is scarce, and decisions are paramount. The initial results from this model are presented at the end of this report. As a new model developed in recent months and for unprecedented times, this "nowcasting" model is still subject to academic and peer review. This takes time. However, we are confident of the results, and we expect more monitoring and analysis of the impacts of policy decision using this model in the months to come. In unstable economic environments, projections are always going to be difficult ad caution is wise. So, for the analysis of the 2020-21 budget, we have relied mostly on a traditional approach that is more commonly called a "hypothetical families" model. This means we are focussing our analysis more on changes for the households and typical families that we find in the 2017-18 ABS Survey of Income and Housing, rather than less reliable

We help people change their lives through support and education, and we speak out for a just soci... more We help people change their lives through support and education, and we speak out for a just society where everyone thrives. We're Australia's first charity. We're a not-for-profit and nonreligious organisation and we've helped people, families and communities achieve positive change since 1813.

This paper uses microdata and NATSEM's microsimulation models to examine the spatial distribu... more This paper uses microdata and NATSEM's microsimulation models to examine the spatial distribution of poverty among older single people and to test the likely impact upon national and small area poverty rates of an increase in the single age pension rate. In recent months in Australia there has been extended debate about whether the age pension is sufficiently high to allow older Australians to attain an acceptable standard of living. This paper uses microdata and NATSEM's microsimulation models to examine the spatial distribution of poverty among older single people and to test the likely impact upon national and small area poverty rates of an increase in the single age pension rate. The paper provides an illustration of the usefulness of microsimulation models to policy makers. Changes in a country's tax and transfer systems can have a large effect on incomes, and can be targeted towards increasing incomes for the poor, thus reducing poverty rates. However, governments ...

The staff at University of Canberra who have worked on this Evidence Check are experts in the wel... more The staff at University of Canberra who have worked on this Evidence Check are experts in the wellbeing literature. Associate Professor Riyana Miranti has worked at NATSEM since 2007 and has a strong research interest in social wellbeing and equity, focusing on issues of disadvantage and wellbeing including poverty, social exclusion and inequality affecting children, women, older people, families and migrants. She worked on the Child Social Exclusion Index, Youth Social Exclusion Index and Index of Wellbeing for Older People at the small area level in Australia and led the Older Adults Social Exclusion project, which was published in the journal Social Inclusion. She was a Chief Investigator for an ARC Linkage project on workforce vulnerabilities among mature-aged workers. Professor Robert Tanton has been at NATSEM since 2005 and worked on the Child Social Exclusion indexes, indexes of Wellbeing for Older Australians and the Youth Social Exclusion index. He has also attended Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) conferences on wellbeing. Before joining NATSEM, he worked at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), where he led the team reviewing and calculating the 2001 SocioEconomic Index for Areas. He was in the same ABS branch as Jon Hall, principal author of the first Measuring Australia's Progress (renamed Measures of Australia's Progress in 2004), and edited sections of these first two publications. He has presented to national and international conferences on spatial disadvantage and wellbeing, including the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), the Australian Economics Society and ABS seminars. Dr Yogi Vidyattama is a senior research fellow at NATSEM. He has focused on spatial and geographical economic analysis and is experienced in microsimulation modelling, economic growth, income and wealth distribution and inequality. His principal areas of research include: spatial impact of government policy; housing affordability; spatial distribution of inequality and disadvantage; and analysis of wealth and superannuation. He helped develop the Index of Wellbeing for Older People at the small area level in Australia.

The introduction of electric vehicles and their many variants is an important step in the effort ... more The introduction of electric vehicles and their many variants is an important step in the effort to reduce greenhouse emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, the take up rate of electric vehicles is still low. Although many people agree that electric vehicles provide an environmental benefit, the main purchasing factor for vehicles is based significantly on financial benefits and practicality. This study aims to estimate the number of electric vehicles that could replace conventional vehicles based only on financial benefit and the distribution of households that financially benefit from taking up an electric vehicle.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2009

In this paper, some vital methodological issues of spatial microsimulation modelling for small ar... more In this paper, some vital methodological issues of spatial microsimulation modelling for small area estimation have been addressed, with a particular emphasis given to the reweighting techniques. Most of the review articles in small area estimation have highlighted methodologies based on various statistical models and theories. However, spatial microsimulation modelling is emerging as a very useful alternative means of small area estimation. Our findings demonstrate that spatial microsimulation models are robust and have advantages over other type of models used for small area estimation. The technique uses different methodologies typically based on geographic models and various economic theories. In contrast to statistical model-based approaches, the spatial microsimulation model-based approaches can operate through reweighting techniques such as GREGWT and combinatorial optimization. A comparison between reweighting techniques reveals that they are using quite different iterative algorithms and that their properties also vary. The study also points out a new method for spatial microsimulation modelling

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2017

We developed a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, to estimate the economic costs of early exit ... more We developed a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, to estimate the economic costs of early exit from the labour force, both for informal carers and the government, from 2015 to 2030. In this paper, we describe the methods used to create the model Care&WorkMOD, and the sources of data and model assumptions. Care&WorkMOD is based on the unit record data of people aged 15-64 years in the three Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDAC) 2003, 2009 and 2012. Population and the labour force projections from the 2015 Intergenerational Report and the outputs of an Australian microsimulation model APPSIM were used for the static aging of the base data to every five years from 2015 to 2030. The 2015 output dataset of another microsimulation model STINMOD was linked with Care&WorkMOD base data using synthetic matching. The matching process has added data on further economic variables from STINMOD into Care&WorkMOD, which are not available in SDACs. Economic data were indexed based on long-term trends on economic variables to capture the projected economic growth from 2015 to 2030. Care&WorkMOD can provide the long-term estimates of the lost labour productivity due to informal caring responsibilities and the related economic burden both at the individual and national level, and has the potential to "fill the gaps" in the current body of evidence on the costs of chronic diseases, particularly related to informal carers.

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2013

Policymakers in Australia, like in most OECD countries, have recognised the importance of early r... more Policymakers in Australia, like in most OECD countries, have recognised the importance of early retirement due to ill health on individuals and families, as well as on the budget balance when planning for the health needs of an ageing population. In order to understand these effects, a unique microsimulation model, called Health&WealthMOD2030, was built to estimate the impacts of early retirement due to ill health on labour force participation, personal and household income, economic hardship (poverty), and government taxation revenue,

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2013

Macroeconomic shocks such as movements in exchange rates or the terms of trade not only affect th... more Macroeconomic shocks such as movements in exchange rates or the terms of trade not only affect the overall economy but also affect different areas in a country in different ways, thus creating a spatial distribution of the shock. The effect on some regions is often larger than the national effect as regions differ in terms of resource endowments, economic activities, physical and human capital. The standard national CGE-Microsimulation framework is a useful approach to capture the distributional impacts of macro shocks on households at national and state and territory levels. However, the CGE-Microsimulation framework does not capture the distributional impact of a policy change or an external shock on small geographical areas of interest. To overcome this limitation, this paper extends the framework by linking a spatial microsimulation model to the national CGE-microsimulation framework in a top-down manner to capture the distribution of income in small areas of a macro shock. We simulate a potential decline in Australian terms of trade over 2012-13 to 2017-18 and find significant differences in the spatial distribution of the impacts of the shock.

Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2017

The severity and intensity of drought are predicted to worsen under expected changing climatic co... more The severity and intensity of drought are predicted to worsen under expected changing climatic conditions. The ability of communities to adapt and be resilient during a severe event such as drought depends on the capacity of the area. This study looks at the capacity of regional communities to adapt during a period of severe condition, using a case study of the Murray-Darling Basin in Southeast Australia during the Millennium drought. Using principal component analysis methodology, this study creates several indexes to summarise important indicators for socioeconomic adaptive capacity. Results indicate that that the adaptive capacity measure works well in the areas near cities. On the other hand, although areas away from cities were more likely to suffer lower adaptive capacity after the drought, the areas with higher capacity index seem to be able to maintain their position in the quintile or at least not drop further down into lower quintile even when compared to the area near the city.

PLoS ONE, 2014

Objective: To quantify the poverty status and level of disadvantage experienced by Australians ag... more Objective: To quantify the poverty status and level of disadvantage experienced by Australians aged 45-64 years who have left the labour force due to diabetes in 2010. Research Design and Methods: A purpose-built microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the poverty status and level of disadvantage of those aged 45-64 years who prematurely retire from the workforce due to diabetes. A multiple regression model was used to identify significant differences in rates of income poverty and the degree of disadvantage between those out of the labour force due to diabetes and those employed full-or part-time with no diabetes. Results: 63.9% of people aged 45-64 years who were out of the labour force due to diabetes were in poverty in 2010. The odds of being in poverty for those with no diabetes and employed full-time (OR of being in poverty 0.02 95%CI: 0.01-0.04) or part-time (OR of being in poverty 0.10 95%CI: 0.05-0.23) are significantly lower than those for persons not in the labour force due to diabetes. Amongst those with diabetes, those who were able to stay in either full-or part-time employment were as much as 97% less likely to be in poverty than those who had to retire early because of the condition. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess impacts of different poverty line thresholds and key socioeconomic predictors of poverty. Conclusions: This study has shown that having diabetes and not being in the labour force because of this condition significantly increases the chances of living in poverty. Intervening to prevent or delay the onset of diabetes is likely to improve their living standards.

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2013

These days spatial microsimulation modelling plays a vital role in policy analysis for small area... more These days spatial microsimulation modelling plays a vital role in policy analysis for small areas. Most developed countries are using these tools in ways to make knowledgeable decisions on major policy issues at local levels. However, building an appropriate model is very difficult for many reasons. For example, the creation of reliable spatial microdata is still challenging. In addition there has not been much research on testing statistical significance of the model outputs yet, and deriving estimates of how reliable these outputs may be. This paper deals with the spatial microsimulation model building procedure for simulating synthetic spatial microdata, and then estimating small area housing stress in Australia. Geographic maps for small area housing stress estimates are illustrated. The research also demonstrates a new system to test the statistical significance of the model estimates.

This material was produced with funding from the Australian Government and the Australian States ... more This material was produced with funding from the Australian Government and the Australian States and Territories. AHURI Ltd gratefully acknowledges the financial and other support it has received from the Australian, State and Territory governments, without which this work would not have been possible. AHURI comprises a network of twelve universities clustered into seven Research Centres across Australia. Research Centre contributions, both financial and in-kind, have made the completion of this report possible. DISCLAIMER AHURI Ltd is an independent, non-political body which has supported this project as part of its programme of research into housing and urban development, which it hopes will be of value to policy-makers, researchers, industry and communities. The opinions in this publication reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of AHURI Ltd, its Board or its funding organisations. No responsibility is accepted by AHURI Ltd or its Board or its funders for the accuracy or omission of any statement, opinion, advice or information in this publication.

Pain, Dec 24, 2019

This study models the economic costs of informal caring for people with back pain, using a micros... more This study models the economic costs of informal caring for people with back pain, using a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, from 2015 to 2030.

BMC Public Health, Jun 21, 2019

Background: Most studies measure the impact of ischemic heart disease (IHD) on individuals using ... more Background: Most studies measure the impact of ischemic heart disease (IHD) on individuals using quality of life metrics such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); however, IHD also has an enormous impact on productive life years (PLYs). The objective of this study was to project the indirect costs of IHD resulting from lost PLYs to older Australian workers (45-64 years), government, and society 2015-2030. Methods: Nationally representative data from the Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (2003, 2009) were used to develop the base population in the microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030), which integrated data from established microsimulation models (STINMOD, APPSIM), Treasury's population and workforce projections, and chronic conditions trends.

Building Simulation Conference Proceedings

This paper presents an innovative analysis of a likely scenario in developed countries: an ageing... more This paper presents an innovative analysis of a likely scenario in developed countries: an ageing population and an increase in energy efficiency of the building stock. In this paper we present the case of the city of Hamburg, Germany. The aim of this paper is to analyse the changing heat consumption patterns on a city with: (1) an ageing population and (2) a rapid increase in its building energy efficiency. For the analysis in this paper we compared demographic changes of the population and improvements on the building stock to a base scenario in 2010. The results from this analysis show: (1) the effect on energy reduction of different retrofit scenarios; and (2) Districts most affected by the explicit consideration of user behaviour in urban heat demand models.

NATSEM, University of Canberra, 2020

The 2020-21 federal budget is unprecedented. This is not only because it has been released later ... more The 2020-21 federal budget is unprecedented. This is not only because it has been released later than usual and during a global health pandemic. It is also because of the high level of uncertainty about our economy and society. This makes for a very different independent modelling of this year's budget. Such is the degree of income and related shock that is still reverberating through the community, many of the traditional forms of data used each budget are less accessible or reliable. Taking a conservative approach to analysis, this has resulted in NATSEM curtailing the usual scope of this report. It has also seen our team adopt creative new ways to compensate. These unprecedented events have also made for a very different budget to those that recently came before. It is a federal budget that sets records in terms of spending and debt, when just months ago the national priority was returning the budget into the black. The key theme of this year's budget is that business will lead the economic recovery across Australia. This budget espouses investment in tax cuts, wage subsidies and asset write-offs as a path to this recovery. Along with many other measures, this is predicted to lift gross debt to over 1 trillion dollars by 2024. This will result in a huge financial deficit. This is not necessarily a bad thing for a Government seeking to cushion the blow of large job losses and to get the economy back on track. This is particularly the case at a time when the interest costs of lending money are so low. A little over a decade ago, when faced with the Global Financial Crisis, we saw a similar response from Government to help protect Australia from the dire economic impacts seen overseas. Over the last decade, NATSEM has focussed its analysis around how the federal budget impacts everyday Australians and households. This continues this year. We have maintained an emphasis on those who may be missing out in society, particularly in terms of poverty and income inequity. This also continues this year. Over the years, what has been central in our work is basing our reports on solid data and impartial analysis. Again, this year's data comes from a number of widely available sources at budget time but is complemented and made unique by integration with our microsimulation model of the Tax/Transfer system, STINMOD+. This enables us to map out the full economic and welfare impacts of budget 2020-21. This year, our team has again crunched the numbers. But it has been a particularly tough year. Our Tax/Transfer model draws on pre COVID data at a time when there have been huge changes in the labour force due to COVID-19. The Australian Bureau of Statistics {ABS} has done a magnificent job this year using data from the Tax Office (One Touch payroll data) to compensate for such gaps and present data on the changes to employment as soon as is possible. Our team has taken this information analysed it and presented it by industry, and more recently by geography, right across Australia. Led by Professor Jinjing Li, our team have used these data, other current data and our STINMOD+ tool to develop a new Australian "nowcasting" model. This is a significant achievement and provides leaders and policymakers with near real time analysis at a time when data is scarce, and decisions are paramount. The initial results from this model are presented at the end of this report. As a new model developed in recent months and for unprecedented times, this "nowcasting" model is still subject to academic and peer review. This takes time. However, we are confident of the results, and we expect more monitoring and analysis of the impacts of policy decision using this model in the months to come. In unstable economic environments, projections are always going to be difficult ad caution is wise. So, for the analysis of the 2020-21 budget, we have relied mostly on a traditional approach that is more commonly called a "hypothetical families" model. This means we are focussing our analysis more on changes for the households and typical families that we find in the 2017-18 ABS Survey of Income and Housing, rather than less reliable

We help people change their lives through support and education, and we speak out for a just soci... more We help people change their lives through support and education, and we speak out for a just society where everyone thrives. We're Australia's first charity. We're a not-for-profit and nonreligious organisation and we've helped people, families and communities achieve positive change since 1813.

This paper uses microdata and NATSEM's microsimulation models to examine the spatial distribu... more This paper uses microdata and NATSEM's microsimulation models to examine the spatial distribution of poverty among older single people and to test the likely impact upon national and small area poverty rates of an increase in the single age pension rate. In recent months in Australia there has been extended debate about whether the age pension is sufficiently high to allow older Australians to attain an acceptable standard of living. This paper uses microdata and NATSEM's microsimulation models to examine the spatial distribution of poverty among older single people and to test the likely impact upon national and small area poverty rates of an increase in the single age pension rate. The paper provides an illustration of the usefulness of microsimulation models to policy makers. Changes in a country's tax and transfer systems can have a large effect on incomes, and can be targeted towards increasing incomes for the poor, thus reducing poverty rates. However, governments ...

The staff at University of Canberra who have worked on this Evidence Check are experts in the wel... more The staff at University of Canberra who have worked on this Evidence Check are experts in the wellbeing literature. Associate Professor Riyana Miranti has worked at NATSEM since 2007 and has a strong research interest in social wellbeing and equity, focusing on issues of disadvantage and wellbeing including poverty, social exclusion and inequality affecting children, women, older people, families and migrants. She worked on the Child Social Exclusion Index, Youth Social Exclusion Index and Index of Wellbeing for Older People at the small area level in Australia and led the Older Adults Social Exclusion project, which was published in the journal Social Inclusion. She was a Chief Investigator for an ARC Linkage project on workforce vulnerabilities among mature-aged workers. Professor Robert Tanton has been at NATSEM since 2005 and worked on the Child Social Exclusion indexes, indexes of Wellbeing for Older Australians and the Youth Social Exclusion index. He has also attended Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) conferences on wellbeing. Before joining NATSEM, he worked at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), where he led the team reviewing and calculating the 2001 SocioEconomic Index for Areas. He was in the same ABS branch as Jon Hall, principal author of the first Measuring Australia's Progress (renamed Measures of Australia's Progress in 2004), and edited sections of these first two publications. He has presented to national and international conferences on spatial disadvantage and wellbeing, including the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), the Australian Economics Society and ABS seminars. Dr Yogi Vidyattama is a senior research fellow at NATSEM. He has focused on spatial and geographical economic analysis and is experienced in microsimulation modelling, economic growth, income and wealth distribution and inequality. His principal areas of research include: spatial impact of government policy; housing affordability; spatial distribution of inequality and disadvantage; and analysis of wealth and superannuation. He helped develop the Index of Wellbeing for Older People at the small area level in Australia.

The introduction of electric vehicles and their many variants is an important step in the effort ... more The introduction of electric vehicles and their many variants is an important step in the effort to reduce greenhouse emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, the take up rate of electric vehicles is still low. Although many people agree that electric vehicles provide an environmental benefit, the main purchasing factor for vehicles is based significantly on financial benefits and practicality. This study aims to estimate the number of electric vehicles that could replace conventional vehicles based only on financial benefit and the distribution of households that financially benefit from taking up an electric vehicle.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2009

In this paper, some vital methodological issues of spatial microsimulation modelling for small ar... more In this paper, some vital methodological issues of spatial microsimulation modelling for small area estimation have been addressed, with a particular emphasis given to the reweighting techniques. Most of the review articles in small area estimation have highlighted methodologies based on various statistical models and theories. However, spatial microsimulation modelling is emerging as a very useful alternative means of small area estimation. Our findings demonstrate that spatial microsimulation models are robust and have advantages over other type of models used for small area estimation. The technique uses different methodologies typically based on geographic models and various economic theories. In contrast to statistical model-based approaches, the spatial microsimulation model-based approaches can operate through reweighting techniques such as GREGWT and combinatorial optimization. A comparison between reweighting techniques reveals that they are using quite different iterative algorithms and that their properties also vary. The study also points out a new method for spatial microsimulation modelling

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2017

We developed a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, to estimate the economic costs of early exit ... more We developed a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, to estimate the economic costs of early exit from the labour force, both for informal carers and the government, from 2015 to 2030. In this paper, we describe the methods used to create the model Care&WorkMOD, and the sources of data and model assumptions. Care&WorkMOD is based on the unit record data of people aged 15-64 years in the three Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDAC) 2003, 2009 and 2012. Population and the labour force projections from the 2015 Intergenerational Report and the outputs of an Australian microsimulation model APPSIM were used for the static aging of the base data to every five years from 2015 to 2030. The 2015 output dataset of another microsimulation model STINMOD was linked with Care&WorkMOD base data using synthetic matching. The matching process has added data on further economic variables from STINMOD into Care&WorkMOD, which are not available in SDACs. Economic data were indexed based on long-term trends on economic variables to capture the projected economic growth from 2015 to 2030. Care&WorkMOD can provide the long-term estimates of the lost labour productivity due to informal caring responsibilities and the related economic burden both at the individual and national level, and has the potential to "fill the gaps" in the current body of evidence on the costs of chronic diseases, particularly related to informal carers.

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2013

Policymakers in Australia, like in most OECD countries, have recognised the importance of early r... more Policymakers in Australia, like in most OECD countries, have recognised the importance of early retirement due to ill health on individuals and families, as well as on the budget balance when planning for the health needs of an ageing population. In order to understand these effects, a unique microsimulation model, called Health&WealthMOD2030, was built to estimate the impacts of early retirement due to ill health on labour force participation, personal and household income, economic hardship (poverty), and government taxation revenue,

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2013

Macroeconomic shocks such as movements in exchange rates or the terms of trade not only affect th... more Macroeconomic shocks such as movements in exchange rates or the terms of trade not only affect the overall economy but also affect different areas in a country in different ways, thus creating a spatial distribution of the shock. The effect on some regions is often larger than the national effect as regions differ in terms of resource endowments, economic activities, physical and human capital. The standard national CGE-Microsimulation framework is a useful approach to capture the distributional impacts of macro shocks on households at national and state and territory levels. However, the CGE-Microsimulation framework does not capture the distributional impact of a policy change or an external shock on small geographical areas of interest. To overcome this limitation, this paper extends the framework by linking a spatial microsimulation model to the national CGE-microsimulation framework in a top-down manner to capture the distribution of income in small areas of a macro shock. We simulate a potential decline in Australian terms of trade over 2012-13 to 2017-18 and find significant differences in the spatial distribution of the impacts of the shock.

Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2017

The severity and intensity of drought are predicted to worsen under expected changing climatic co... more The severity and intensity of drought are predicted to worsen under expected changing climatic conditions. The ability of communities to adapt and be resilient during a severe event such as drought depends on the capacity of the area. This study looks at the capacity of regional communities to adapt during a period of severe condition, using a case study of the Murray-Darling Basin in Southeast Australia during the Millennium drought. Using principal component analysis methodology, this study creates several indexes to summarise important indicators for socioeconomic adaptive capacity. Results indicate that that the adaptive capacity measure works well in the areas near cities. On the other hand, although areas away from cities were more likely to suffer lower adaptive capacity after the drought, the areas with higher capacity index seem to be able to maintain their position in the quintile or at least not drop further down into lower quintile even when compared to the area near the city.

PLoS ONE, 2014

Objective: To quantify the poverty status and level of disadvantage experienced by Australians ag... more Objective: To quantify the poverty status and level of disadvantage experienced by Australians aged 45-64 years who have left the labour force due to diabetes in 2010. Research Design and Methods: A purpose-built microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the poverty status and level of disadvantage of those aged 45-64 years who prematurely retire from the workforce due to diabetes. A multiple regression model was used to identify significant differences in rates of income poverty and the degree of disadvantage between those out of the labour force due to diabetes and those employed full-or part-time with no diabetes. Results: 63.9% of people aged 45-64 years who were out of the labour force due to diabetes were in poverty in 2010. The odds of being in poverty for those with no diabetes and employed full-time (OR of being in poverty 0.02 95%CI: 0.01-0.04) or part-time (OR of being in poverty 0.10 95%CI: 0.05-0.23) are significantly lower than those for persons not in the labour force due to diabetes. Amongst those with diabetes, those who were able to stay in either full-or part-time employment were as much as 97% less likely to be in poverty than those who had to retire early because of the condition. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess impacts of different poverty line thresholds and key socioeconomic predictors of poverty. Conclusions: This study has shown that having diabetes and not being in the labour force because of this condition significantly increases the chances of living in poverty. Intervening to prevent or delay the onset of diabetes is likely to improve their living standards.

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2013

These days spatial microsimulation modelling plays a vital role in policy analysis for small area... more These days spatial microsimulation modelling plays a vital role in policy analysis for small areas. Most developed countries are using these tools in ways to make knowledgeable decisions on major policy issues at local levels. However, building an appropriate model is very difficult for many reasons. For example, the creation of reliable spatial microdata is still challenging. In addition there has not been much research on testing statistical significance of the model outputs yet, and deriving estimates of how reliable these outputs may be. This paper deals with the spatial microsimulation model building procedure for simulating synthetic spatial microdata, and then estimating small area housing stress in Australia. Geographic maps for small area housing stress estimates are illustrated. The research also demonstrates a new system to test the statistical significance of the model estimates.