Cynthia Rosenzweig - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Policy Papers by Cynthia Rosenzweig

Papers by Cynthia Rosenzweig

Abstract We constructed a general energy balance model applicable to both green and non-green roo... more Abstract We constructed a general energy balance model applicable to both green and non-green roof surfaces. It includes equations for shortwave and longwave radiation, convective, latent and conductive heat fluxes. For convection, we use a temperature ...

Abstract For nine sites in the southern Great Plains, the decade of the Dust Bowl was consistentl... more Abstract For nine sites in the southern Great Plains, the decade of the Dust Bowl was consistently warmer than the 1951 to 1980 “normal.” It also tended to be drier, but less consistently so. At four of the nine sites, the combination of consistently higher ...

J. Geophys. …, 2004

1] To simulate ozone (O 3 ) air quality in future decades over the eastern United States, a model... more 1] To simulate ozone (O 3 ) air quality in future decades over the eastern United States, a modeling system consisting of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model, the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale regional climate model (MM5), and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model has been applied. Estimates of future emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors are based on the A2 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), one of the scenarios with the highest growth of CO 2 among all IPCC scenarios. Simulation results for five summers in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s indicate that summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O 3 concentrations increase by 2.7, 4.2, and 5.0 ppb, respectively, as a result of regional climate change alone with respect to five summers in the 1990s. Through additional sensitivity simulations for the five summers in the 2050s the relative impact of changes in regional climate, anthropogenic emissions within the modeling domain, and changed boundary conditions approximating possible changes of global atmospheric composition was investigated. Changed boundary conditions are found to be the largest contributor to changes in predicted summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O 3 concentrations (5.0 ppb), followed by the effects of regional climate change (4.2 ppb) and the effects of increased anthropogenic emissions (1.3 ppb). However, when changes in the fourth highest summertime 8-hour O 3 concentration are considered, changes in regional climate are the most important contributor to simulated concentration changes (7.6 ppb), followed by the effect of increased anthropogenic emissions (3.9 ppb) and increased boundary conditions (2.8 ppb). Thus, while previous studies have pointed out the potentially important contribution of growing global emissions and intercontinental transport to O 3 air quality in the United States for future decades, the results presented here imply that it may be equally important to consider the effects of a changing climate when planning for the future attainment of regional-scale air quality standards such as the U.S. national ambient air quality standard that is based on the fourth highest annual daily maximum 8-hour O 3 concentration. , Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions,

… and adaptation strategies for global change, 1997

Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern ... more Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm-level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.

Advances in agronomy, 2002

Ecosystems in semiarid regions appear to be undergoing degradation processes commonly described a... more Ecosystems in semiarid regions appear to be undergoing degradation processes commonly described as desertification. We review the concepts, definitions, and processes pertinent to the problem. Focusing on the long-term drought in the African Sahel as a case ...

Climate …, 2002

ABSTRACT: We projected US agricultural production in 2030 and 2090 at 45 representative sites, us... more ABSTRACT: We projected US agricultural production in 2030 and 2090 at 45 representative sites, using 2 scenarios of climate change, developed with the Hadley Centre Model and the Canadian Centre Climate Model, and the DSSAT (Decision Support Systems for Agro-...

Global and Planetary Change, 1997

Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic modification of land hydrology (e.g. through groundwate... more Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic modification of land hydrology (e.g. through groundwater mining, dam building, irrigation, deforestation, wetlands drainage, and urbanization) could significantly impact sea-level rise, although the magnitude and sign of this effect have been widely debated. This paper attempts a comprehensive overview of the effects of human activities on land hydrology. Estimates are provided for the volumes of water associated with each of the major anthropogenic processe~,; and the corresponding equivalent in sea level.

European Journal of …, 2000

The potential effects of future climate change were investigated, corresponding to a doubling of ... more The potential effects of future climate change were investigated, corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 from 350 to 700 ppm, on agricultural production of four different cropping systems at two Italian locations, Modena and Foggia. Climate change scenarios, derived from two general circulation models (GCMs), were used as weather input to a soil-plant growth simulator, CropSyst. This model was recently modified to include the effects of elevated CO 2 on crop photosynthesis and transpiration. Six different crops in total were simulated at the two Italian sites. At Modena, a 3-year maize-maize-wheat rotation and a 2-year soybean -barley -summer sorghum rotation were studied. At Foggia, a 2-year sunflower-wheat-fallow rotation, and a 2-year wheat -fallow -spring sorghum rotation were simulated. Results suggested that the combined effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 and climate change at both sites would depress crop yields if current management practices were not modified. Specifically, predicted warmer air temperatures accelerated plant phenology, reducing dry matter accumulation and crop yields by 10 -40%. By investigating adaptation strategies, it was found that a combination of early planting for spring -summer crops and the use of slower-maturing winter cereal cultivars succeeds in maintaining crop yields at current levels at both sites. For irrigated maize and soybean production at Modena, 60 -90% more irrigation water was required under climate change to keep grain yields at current levels. This implies that adaptation to climate change may be limited for irrigated crops, depending on site-specific water availability.

Bulletin of the …, 2009

ABSTRACT

Soil Science, 2000

In the interplay of the soil and the atmosphere, the soil can be both a contributor to and a reci... more In the interplay of the soil and the atmosphere, the soil can be both a contributor to and a recipient of the impacts of climate change. In the past, land management has generally resulted in considerable depletion of soil organic matter and the release into the atmosphere of such radiatively ...

… Strategies for Global …, 1997

... Correspondence should be addressed to: Ana Iglesias, Divisi6n de Planificacion Hidrolbgica, I... more ... Correspondence should be addressed to: Ana Iglesias, Divisi6n de Planificacion Hidrolbgica, INTECSA, Orense 70,28020 Madrid, Spain. Tel: +34 1 583 2681; Fax: +34 1 583 2808. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 1: 233-250, 1997. ...

Advances in Agronomy, 2005

... the variety of foods was reduced, so was the nutritional balance and quality of the ... Growi... more ... the variety of foods was reduced, so was the nutritional balance and quality of the ... Growing conditions differ from place to place (due to differences in soil, water regime, temperature ... The authors documented a substantial but previously unnoted decline in avian biodiversity in the ...

Atmospheric Environment, 2009

This paper introduces a methodology for estimating gridded fields of total and speciated fine par... more This paper introduces a methodology for estimating gridded fields of total and speciated fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations for time periods and regions not covered by observational data. The methodology is based on performing long-term regional scale meteorological and air quality simulations and then integrating these simulations with available observational data. To illustrate this methodology, we present an application in which year-round simulations with a meteorological model (the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model, hereafter referred to as MM5) and a photochemical air quality model (the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model, hereafter referred to as CMAQ) have been performed over the northeastern United States for 1988-2005. Model evaluation results for total PM 2.5 mass and individual species for the time period from 2000 to 2005 show that model performance varies by species, season, and location. Therefore, an approach is developed to adjust CMAQ output with factors based on these three variables. The adjusted model values for total PM 2.5 mass for 2000-2005 are compared against independent measurements not utilized for the adjustment approach. This comparison reveals that the adjusted model values have a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficients than the original model values. Furthermore, the PM 2.5 estimates from these adjusted model values are compared against an alternate method for estimating historic PM 2.5 values that is based on PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratios calculated at co-located monitors. Results reveal that both methods yield estimates of historic PM 2.5 mass that are broadly consistent; however, the adjusted CMAQ values provide greater spatial coverage and information for PM 2.5 species in addition to total PM 2.5 mass. Finally, strengths and limitations of the proposed approach are discussed in the context of potential uses of this method.

… Change Part B: …, 2005

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other gr... more Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions-including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed-tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

Annals of the New …, 2010

... Malcolm Bowman, SUNY, Stony Brook. Andrew Castaldi, Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation, re... more ... Malcolm Bowman, SUNY, Stony Brook. Andrew Castaldi, Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation, represented by Megan Linkin. Craig Faris, Accenture. ... Megan O&amp;#x27;Grady (Project Manager), Columbia EI CCSR. Lesley Patrick (Project Manager), CUNY CISC. ...

Geophysical Research Letters, 2008

Received 26 October 2007; revised 30 November 2007; accepted 13 December 2007; published 26 Janua... more Received 26 October 2007; revised 30 November 2007; accepted 13 December 2007; published 26 January 2008. [1] The semi-empirical relationship between global surface air temperature and mean sea level first developed by Rahmstorf is here applied to the latest generation ...

Atmospheric …, 2007

... c NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA. ... The 4°×5° NASA Goddard Ins... more ... c NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA. ... The 4°×5° NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Circulation Model (GISS-GCM; Russell et al., 1995) provided initial conditions and lateral and surface boundary fields for MM5. ...