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While economists [from about 1880 to 1970] ignored nature, ecologists pretended humankind did not... more While economists [from about 1880 to 1970] ignored nature, ecologists pretended humankind did not exist. Rather than sully their science with the uncertainty of human affairs, they sought out pristine patches in which to monitor energy flows and population dynamics. Consequently, they had no political, economic-or ecological-impact. Abstract Neoclassical economic theory, which has come to dominate much of the policymaking world, reduces the factors of production to labor and capital. Yet, the classical economists as far back as Adam Smith considered land to be perhaps the most important factor of production. The link between land-or more generally natural capital and ecosystem services-with the economy has effectively been severed by neoclassical economic thought. In that aftermath, both policymakers and academics understandably struggle to synthesize economic theory and the environmental sink in a systematic fashion. This paper is intended to serve as a policy guide that attempts to link economic theory with other issues that are either ignored or not yet synthesized into mainstream economic thought. (JEL A12, B10, E02, N10)

Papers by Thomas Tunstall

Forward P.Bendor-Samuel Introduction The High Level Framework Governance Options Organizations Ov... more Forward P.Bendor-Samuel Introduction The High Level Framework Governance Options Organizations Over Time The Black Box Exposed External Governance The Global Perspective Management Style New Rules for Governance

Journal of economic development, 2016

Crow and Dabars describe a new model for American universities that will take institutions beyond... more Crow and Dabars describe a new model for American universities that will take institutions beyond rankings based on selectivity to values based on inclusiveness. The authors also argue that universities can and should play a larger role in local community and economic development by partnering with industry and government. The case is compelling and will be a useful guide for university administrators in the years ahead.

Markets cannot substitute for government. Each has a role to play. Tension often exists between t... more Markets cannot substitute for government. Each has a role to play. Tension often exists between them because we again find that it is often tough to draw the boundaries. The strain between the two remains a function of the rules of the game. Some rules are inviolable. Some can be bent. Some are merely conventions that often get broken. The efficient use of contracts that can provide predictable enforcement mechanisms require more than a market. It requires a legal environment conducive to contracting and fair play. In short, it requires a system based on rules.

Neoclassical economic theory, which has come to dominate much of the policymaking world, reduces ... more Neoclassical economic theory, which has come to dominate much of the policymaking world, reduces the factors of production to labor and capital. Yet, the classical economists as far back as Adam Smith considered land to be perhaps the most important factor of production. The link between land - or more generally natural capital and ecosystem services - with the economy has effectively been severed by neoclassical economic thought. In that aftermath, both policymakers and academics understandably struggle to synthesize economic theory and the environmental sink in a systematic fashion. This paper is intended to serve as a policy guide that attempts to link economic theory with other issues that are either ignored or not yet synthesized into mainstream economic thought.

Unconventional oil and gas extraction efforts have raised the specter of the resource curse in af... more Unconventional oil and gas extraction efforts have raised the specter of the resource curse in affected communities, as has been demonstrated in other industries or geographies. Yet because these developments in unconventional extraction industries are so new, data for analysis is limited. This study examines recent activity in the Eagle Ford Shale area of South Texas with a time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) approach using data collected from 14 actively producing counties over a four year period from 2008-2011. Results indicate that the number of completed oil and gas wells has had a positive impact on per-capita income to-date. Previ-ous research suggests that communities in South Texas have the opportunity to overcome the resource curse, but that it will require good local governance and thoughtful long-term plan-ning.

Heart, Lung and Circulation, 2016

Energy, 2015

Developing long-term forecasts for unconventional oil, gas and condensate production has challeng... more Developing long-term forecasts for unconventional oil, gas and condensate production has challenged both analysts and academics because the shale revolution is still in its relatively early stages. Initial estimates of URR (ultimately recoverable reserves) in the Eagle Ford appear to have been too low. In this paper, forecast accuracy using limited early data of oil and condensate production in the Eagle Ford has been improved over OLS (ordinary least squares) methods using a Bass Diffusion Model that could be applicable to other shale field developments in the U.S., and eventually in other countries as well. Using only preliminary production data from 2006 through 2010, a Bass Model yields more accurate early predictions than conventional, bottom-up, data/labor-intensive OLS regression approaches. Further, the Bass Model suggests that in the absence of the recent oil price decline, the Eagle Ford oil and condensate production could have reached as high as 2.6 million barrels per day by 2020, significantly above a recent energy industry analyst prediction of 2 million barrels, and far higher than OLS regression forecasts that ranged from between 450,000 and 1.4 million barrels per day.

The Global Impact of Unconventional Shale Gas Development, 2016

The opportunities for unconventional or shale oil and gas production in Mexico remain at the earl... more The opportunities for unconventional or shale oil and gas production in Mexico remain at the earliest stages of development. The bulk of Mexico’s shale prospects appear to lie in the North and Northeastern sections of the country, where the infrastructure is often largely undeveloped. While significant hurdles remain with regard to the ultimate success of energy reform in general, and shale oil and gas development in particular. If these issues can be addressed, Mexico will be in a position to recapture its role as an energy leader in America.

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

Policy-based management of distributed systems, which uses specification of behavioural constrain... more Policy-based management of distributed systems, which uses specification of behavioural constraints as means of management control, has received considerable attention in recent years. Policies, which are derived from the goals of management, define the desired behaviour of distributed heterogeneous systems and networks, and specify means to enforce that behaviour. The requirements that management goals put on the behaviour of distributed systems today tend to be complex, sophisticated and to change rapidly. In order to enable fast and simple adaptation of the behaviour, flexible, built-in mechanisms need to be available in distributed systems. We see management policies as the best way to seamlessly integrate dynamic management goals into the behaviour of distributed systems. With the ever growing number and complexity of large distributed systems and networks, the problem of complexity is the limiting factor to the applicability of existing policy-based management solutions. At the beginning of this research, our impression was the existing policy specification languages lacked the power to express complex management models in a sufficiently abstract way, and the existing policybased management solutions lack completeness. The ambition of this thesis is to demonstrate new application possibilities that policy-based management presents, by providing the necessary supporting framework and better understanding of the background itself. The focus of the research was on design and implementation of a new policy specification language, which can be used for specifications of high-level management policies. Since the policy specification language itself is not enough to support the whole concept of distributed system management, a conceptual framework for policy-based management is proposed too, together with a complete management process. vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisors, Professor John Derrick and Dr Gill Waters, who had helped me to develop a sense of discipline and taught me to express myself concisely and precisely. I'm particularly thankful for their guidance, patience and belief in me. I would like to acknowledge the support from BTexact, and Paul McKee in particular. Thanks to my good friend David Elwood and his nice parents for pleasant moments I had with them. I also thank all the friends from around the world that I have made during my time at UKC. I would also like to thank all the people I had pleasure to meet in the Computing Lab and all the nice people I had pleasure to work with at the Computing Help Desk and the Computing Service. Finally, I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from BT and the Computing Laboratory at the University of Kent. I also thankfully acknowledge support from Microsoft's MSDN Academic Alliance.

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

Transaction cost theory leads to all sorts of interesting questions about how management directs ... more Transaction cost theory leads to all sorts of interesting questions about how management directs an organization. It determines what functions either get outsourced or managed in-house. Transaction cost theory particularly shines in the context of the transition from a manufacturing-dominated economy to an information-dominated one. Most or all costs associated with information can be classified as transaction costs. In fact, much of the essence of transaction costs could be defined as services or information. They must be considered a central theme in an information economy (see figure 4.1).

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

SARISTU morphing wing is mainly based on three devices: enhanced adaptive droop nose (EADN), adap... more SARISTU morphing wing is mainly based on three devices: enhanced adaptive droop nose (EADN), adaptive trailing edge device (ATED) and winglet active trailing edge (WATE). All these devices are used together to improve the overall wing efficiency and to reduce the aerodynamic noise. The safety activities described in this paper were performed to verify whether this concept can comply with the standard civil flight safety regulations and airworthiness requirements. The safety analysis was performed in two steps: a functional hazard assessment (FHA) and a system safety assessment (SSA). Both analyses were performed at wing integration level (IS12) and at single morphing wing devices level. A complete mapping between these two levels of analysis was structured from the beginning of the process, starting from the aircraft functional definition, to integrate and harmonize both FHA and fault trees results. FHA was used to assess the severity of the identified Failure Conditions and then allocate safety requirements. Fault tree modelling technique was used to verify the compliance of the system architectures to the quantitative safety requirements resulting from the FHAs. The paper sets out the hypotheses and common data used by the fault trees. A complete but simple example illustrates the safety approach all through the different steps of the safety methodology. Other safety activities commonly performed in the aeronautical field such as the particular risk analysis (PRA), common mode analysis (CMA) and zonal safety analysis (ZSA) were identified in the frame of SARISTU project. This paper concludes with a summary highlighting the main results of these safety activities with some lessons learned from the safety approach adapted to SARISTU context.

While economists [from about 1880 to 1970] ignored nature, ecologists pretended humankind did not... more While economists [from about 1880 to 1970] ignored nature, ecologists pretended humankind did not exist. Rather than sully their science with the uncertainty of human affairs, they sought out pristine patches in which to monitor energy flows and population dynamics. Consequently, they had no political, economic-or ecological-impact. Abstract Neoclassical economic theory, which has come to dominate much of the policymaking world, reduces the factors of production to labor and capital. Yet, the classical economists as far back as Adam Smith considered land to be perhaps the most important factor of production. The link between land-or more generally natural capital and ecosystem services-with the economy has effectively been severed by neoclassical economic thought. In that aftermath, both policymakers and academics understandably struggle to synthesize economic theory and the environmental sink in a systematic fashion. This paper is intended to serve as a policy guide that attempts to link economic theory with other issues that are either ignored or not yet synthesized into mainstream economic thought. (JEL A12, B10, E02, N10)

Forward P.Bendor-Samuel Introduction The High Level Framework Governance Options Organizations Ov... more Forward P.Bendor-Samuel Introduction The High Level Framework Governance Options Organizations Over Time The Black Box Exposed External Governance The Global Perspective Management Style New Rules for Governance

Journal of economic development, 2016

Crow and Dabars describe a new model for American universities that will take institutions beyond... more Crow and Dabars describe a new model for American universities that will take institutions beyond rankings based on selectivity to values based on inclusiveness. The authors also argue that universities can and should play a larger role in local community and economic development by partnering with industry and government. The case is compelling and will be a useful guide for university administrators in the years ahead.

Markets cannot substitute for government. Each has a role to play. Tension often exists between t... more Markets cannot substitute for government. Each has a role to play. Tension often exists between them because we again find that it is often tough to draw the boundaries. The strain between the two remains a function of the rules of the game. Some rules are inviolable. Some can be bent. Some are merely conventions that often get broken. The efficient use of contracts that can provide predictable enforcement mechanisms require more than a market. It requires a legal environment conducive to contracting and fair play. In short, it requires a system based on rules.

Neoclassical economic theory, which has come to dominate much of the policymaking world, reduces ... more Neoclassical economic theory, which has come to dominate much of the policymaking world, reduces the factors of production to labor and capital. Yet, the classical economists as far back as Adam Smith considered land to be perhaps the most important factor of production. The link between land - or more generally natural capital and ecosystem services - with the economy has effectively been severed by neoclassical economic thought. In that aftermath, both policymakers and academics understandably struggle to synthesize economic theory and the environmental sink in a systematic fashion. This paper is intended to serve as a policy guide that attempts to link economic theory with other issues that are either ignored or not yet synthesized into mainstream economic thought.

Unconventional oil and gas extraction efforts have raised the specter of the resource curse in af... more Unconventional oil and gas extraction efforts have raised the specter of the resource curse in affected communities, as has been demonstrated in other industries or geographies. Yet because these developments in unconventional extraction industries are so new, data for analysis is limited. This study examines recent activity in the Eagle Ford Shale area of South Texas with a time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) approach using data collected from 14 actively producing counties over a four year period from 2008-2011. Results indicate that the number of completed oil and gas wells has had a positive impact on per-capita income to-date. Previ-ous research suggests that communities in South Texas have the opportunity to overcome the resource curse, but that it will require good local governance and thoughtful long-term plan-ning.

Heart, Lung and Circulation, 2016

Energy, 2015

Developing long-term forecasts for unconventional oil, gas and condensate production has challeng... more Developing long-term forecasts for unconventional oil, gas and condensate production has challenged both analysts and academics because the shale revolution is still in its relatively early stages. Initial estimates of URR (ultimately recoverable reserves) in the Eagle Ford appear to have been too low. In this paper, forecast accuracy using limited early data of oil and condensate production in the Eagle Ford has been improved over OLS (ordinary least squares) methods using a Bass Diffusion Model that could be applicable to other shale field developments in the U.S., and eventually in other countries as well. Using only preliminary production data from 2006 through 2010, a Bass Model yields more accurate early predictions than conventional, bottom-up, data/labor-intensive OLS regression approaches. Further, the Bass Model suggests that in the absence of the recent oil price decline, the Eagle Ford oil and condensate production could have reached as high as 2.6 million barrels per day by 2020, significantly above a recent energy industry analyst prediction of 2 million barrels, and far higher than OLS regression forecasts that ranged from between 450,000 and 1.4 million barrels per day.

The Global Impact of Unconventional Shale Gas Development, 2016

The opportunities for unconventional or shale oil and gas production in Mexico remain at the earl... more The opportunities for unconventional or shale oil and gas production in Mexico remain at the earliest stages of development. The bulk of Mexico’s shale prospects appear to lie in the North and Northeastern sections of the country, where the infrastructure is often largely undeveloped. While significant hurdles remain with regard to the ultimate success of energy reform in general, and shale oil and gas development in particular. If these issues can be addressed, Mexico will be in a position to recapture its role as an energy leader in America.

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

Policy-based management of distributed systems, which uses specification of behavioural constrain... more Policy-based management of distributed systems, which uses specification of behavioural constraints as means of management control, has received considerable attention in recent years. Policies, which are derived from the goals of management, define the desired behaviour of distributed heterogeneous systems and networks, and specify means to enforce that behaviour. The requirements that management goals put on the behaviour of distributed systems today tend to be complex, sophisticated and to change rapidly. In order to enable fast and simple adaptation of the behaviour, flexible, built-in mechanisms need to be available in distributed systems. We see management policies as the best way to seamlessly integrate dynamic management goals into the behaviour of distributed systems. With the ever growing number and complexity of large distributed systems and networks, the problem of complexity is the limiting factor to the applicability of existing policy-based management solutions. At the beginning of this research, our impression was the existing policy specification languages lacked the power to express complex management models in a sufficiently abstract way, and the existing policybased management solutions lack completeness. The ambition of this thesis is to demonstrate new application possibilities that policy-based management presents, by providing the necessary supporting framework and better understanding of the background itself. The focus of the research was on design and implementation of a new policy specification language, which can be used for specifications of high-level management policies. Since the policy specification language itself is not enough to support the whole concept of distributed system management, a conceptual framework for policy-based management is proposed too, together with a complete management process. vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisors, Professor John Derrick and Dr Gill Waters, who had helped me to develop a sense of discipline and taught me to express myself concisely and precisely. I'm particularly thankful for their guidance, patience and belief in me. I would like to acknowledge the support from BTexact, and Paul McKee in particular. Thanks to my good friend David Elwood and his nice parents for pleasant moments I had with them. I also thank all the friends from around the world that I have made during my time at UKC. I would also like to thank all the people I had pleasure to meet in the Computing Lab and all the nice people I had pleasure to work with at the Computing Help Desk and the Computing Service. Finally, I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from BT and the Computing Laboratory at the University of Kent. I also thankfully acknowledge support from Microsoft's MSDN Academic Alliance.

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

Transaction cost theory leads to all sorts of interesting questions about how management directs ... more Transaction cost theory leads to all sorts of interesting questions about how management directs an organization. It determines what functions either get outsourced or managed in-house. Transaction cost theory particularly shines in the context of the transition from a manufacturing-dominated economy to an information-dominated one. Most or all costs associated with information can be classified as transaction costs. In fact, much of the essence of transaction costs could be defined as services or information. They must be considered a central theme in an information economy (see figure 4.1).

Outsourcing and Management, 2007

SARISTU morphing wing is mainly based on three devices: enhanced adaptive droop nose (EADN), adap... more SARISTU morphing wing is mainly based on three devices: enhanced adaptive droop nose (EADN), adaptive trailing edge device (ATED) and winglet active trailing edge (WATE). All these devices are used together to improve the overall wing efficiency and to reduce the aerodynamic noise. The safety activities described in this paper were performed to verify whether this concept can comply with the standard civil flight safety regulations and airworthiness requirements. The safety analysis was performed in two steps: a functional hazard assessment (FHA) and a system safety assessment (SSA). Both analyses were performed at wing integration level (IS12) and at single morphing wing devices level. A complete mapping between these two levels of analysis was structured from the beginning of the process, starting from the aircraft functional definition, to integrate and harmonize both FHA and fault trees results. FHA was used to assess the severity of the identified Failure Conditions and then allocate safety requirements. Fault tree modelling technique was used to verify the compliance of the system architectures to the quantitative safety requirements resulting from the FHAs. The paper sets out the hypotheses and common data used by the fault trees. A complete but simple example illustrates the safety approach all through the different steps of the safety methodology. Other safety activities commonly performed in the aeronautical field such as the particular risk analysis (PRA), common mode analysis (CMA) and zonal safety analysis (ZSA) were identified in the frame of SARISTU project. This paper concludes with a summary highlighting the main results of these safety activities with some lessons learned from the safety approach adapted to SARISTU context.

Outsourcing and Management, 2007