Velimir Šonje - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Velimir Šonje

Društvena istraživanja : časopis za opća društvena pitanja, 2004

U ovom radu autori propituju i kriticki analiziraju neke od teza prezentiranih u clanku sociologa... more U ovom radu autori propituju i kriticki analiziraju neke od teza prezentiranih u clanku sociologa Vjerana Katunarica "Vrijediti i kostati: sociokulturne pretpostavke tranzicije u novijim radovima hrvatskih ekonomista" koji je definirajuci tri pristupa pokusao klasificirati recentne radove odabranih hrvastkih ekonomista. Autori pokusavaju dokazati da izdvojeno i iskljucivo promatranje ideoloskih temelja nije dobro polaziste za klasifikaciju ekonomista, jer zanemaruje neke važnije razlike i moguce klasifikacijske kriterije u pogledu predmeta, teorija i metoda analize. Iako je neprijeporno da ekonomika nije imuna na utjecaj ideologija, autori elaboriraju zasto njihovo isticanje u prvi plan kao jedinih kriterija klasifikacije može dati potpuno iskrivljenu sliku ekonomske misli i njezinih dosega. Zastupaju stav da su predmetne, metodoloske i teorijske razlike među ekonomistima puno važnije i nisu uvijek ideoloski determinirane, pa stoga predstavljaju bolje kriterije koje bi trebalo koristiti u nekoj buducoj klasifikaciji hrvatskih ekonomista. Autori se osvrcu na metodoloske poteskoce u formiranju klasifikacijskih skupina koje su najizraženije kod skupine odabranih "relativista", te osobito govore o pogreskama pri klasifikaciji prve dvije skupine (neoloberalnih redukcionista i neoinstitucionalista). Slijedeci Katunaricev okvir analize, raspravu o klasifikaciji koriste kao odskocnu dasku za propitivanje nekih temeljnih drustvenih i povijesnih pitanja, poput onih zasto socijalizam nije uspio i kakav je odnos ideologije i ekonomske politike u funkcioniranju i razvitku institucije tržista. U zakljucku autori istiicu potrebu za interdisciplinarnim dijalogom u teorijskom rasvjetljavanju mehanizama djelovanja "ne-ekonomskih" varijabli na ekonomske rezultate kao i na ponasanje kljucnih aktera na tržistu.

Postoji rasireno vjerovanje da je s pocetkom tranzicije u srednjoj i istocnoj Europi liberalizam ... more Postoji rasireno vjerovanje da je s pocetkom tranzicije u srednjoj i istocnoj Europi liberalizam postao glavna ideoloska vodilja ekonomske politike. Postavlja se pitanje je li takvo stanje posljedica liberalne ekonomske politike okrenute stvaranju slobodnog tržista, ili se radi o neuspjehu u izgradnji takvog gospodarskog sustava. Veci dio rastuceg skepticizma prema slobodnom tržistu i liberalnim reformama zasniva se na pogresnim predodžbama. Krađe, propasti banaka, korumpirana administracija, pogreske u privatizaciji, pretvaranje državnih u privatne monopole, lose performanse izvoznih sektora i preveliki državni sektori u nekim tranzicijskim zemljama, prema misljenju autora, ne mogu se povezati s uvođenjem slobodnog tržista i politicke demokracije. Naprotiv, valja ih tumaciti kao posljedicu neuspjeha u poduhvatu uvođenja politicke demokracije i slobodnog tržista.

Croatian Economic Survey, Jun 15, 2002

Goldsmith used a sample of 35 countries for the period between 1860 and 1963 to show the relation... more Goldsmith used a sample of 35 countries for the period between 1860 and 1963 to show the relationship between income and financial depth measured by the ratio between bank's assets and GDP. He also showed that in periods of rapid growth, financial depth grows faster than income. More details about measuring financial depth can be found in this paper. FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH * Velimir Šonje ** 1 INTRODUCTION Literature which examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth raises more questions than it answers. Still, it has no dilemmas regarding the existence of a positive correlation between financial development and economic growth. This empirical study also confirms this fact. 1 Controversies arise over the factors that determine the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and over the ways of shaping government intervention, if any, in order to establish and reinforce the positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. There are various theoretical models which provide different answers to these questions. This paper deals with the issues concerning the relationship between financial development and economic growth which are important at this moment of development of the Republic of Croatia. Some issues are not included 208 CROATIAN ECONOMIC SURVEY 1996-1999 Based on the data from Levine (1997), a range of different financial indicators was 2 calculated for Croatia in 1997 using the same indicators applied in 1990 study for less developed, moderately developed and highly developed countries. With an approximate 14 percent share of central bank assets in GDP, Croatia resembles a feature of a highly developed country (as the average share of less developed and moderately developed countries is around 30 percent). With the ratio of commercial bank assets in GDP reaching 74 percent, Croatia is a typical moderately developed country (in 1990, highly developed countries averaged 160 percent). However, since the ratio of market capitalization of the Zagreb stock exchange in relation to GDP is 23.3 percent, and the stock exchange transactions turnover in Zagreb and Varaždin Stock Exchanges reached 2 percent of GDP in 1997, Croatia belongs to the group of less developed countries. In 1996 income of the insurance sector reached about one third of the income of the banking sector, while the assets of the former accounted for about 3 percent of GDP or approximately 5 percent of the banking sector assets. Therefore, this paper will not pay special attention to the analysis of the insurance sector. Keynes analyzed only the short-term effects, thus neglecting the role finance have in 3 the long run. He subjected financial markets to government intervention, i.e. to the government controlled aggregate demand. This approach resulted from his belief that private financial markets, particularly the stock markets, are the destabilizing factor of modern capitalism. (He used the term "animal spirit" to describe investment activities in those markets). Therefore, it is not surprising that Keynes' followers regarded the financial sector as secondary, emphasizing the primary relationship between growth and "real" entrepreneurship

Privredna kretanja i ekonomska politika, Oct 15, 1994

Politička misao : časopis za politologiju, Jul 29, 2016

U okviru rasprave o teoriji egalitarnog sindroma Josipa Županova iz 70-ih godina, koja je nedavno... more U okviru rasprave o teoriji egalitarnog sindroma Josipa Županova iz 70-ih godina, koja je nedavno pokrenuta među hrvatskim politolozima i sociolozima, nameću se dva pitanja od velike važnosti za ekonomiste. Prvo, je li egalitarni sindrom prepreka ekonomskom razvoju ili je riječ o pukoj reakciji na razvojne probleme? Drugo, ako je egalitarni sindrom skup kulturnih normi, koliko može biti jak njihov učinak na tempo i razinu gospodarskog razvitka? Ove se teme nisu propitivale u nedavnoj raspravi među sociolozima. Uvođenje dodatnih varijabli u analizu veza između nejednakosti i društvenih promjena pokazuje da pojedine kulturne norme, poput težnje preraspodjeli, mogu utjecati na društveni razvoj, ali su smjer i snaga njihova utjecaja dvojbeni. Pri tome su bitne dvije varijable: brzina kulturnih promjena i stupanj njihove endogenosti, odnosno egzogenosti u odnosu na ekonomski razvitak. Županov nije analizirao učinke tih varijabli, već je pretpostavio svojevrsni kulturni determinizam. Takav su pristup prihvatili i moderni interpreti njegove teorije, pretpostavivši da je trajanje neke norme indikator njenoga utjecaja. Međutim, bez uklapanja teorije egalitarnog sindroma u širi teorijski okvir u kojem je moguće odrediti i testirati odnos između kulturnih normi, njihovih promjena i gospodarskog razvitka, neće biti moguće utvrditi predstavljaju li vrednote egalitarizma koje su izmjerili Štulhofer i Burić prepreke gospodarskom i društvenom razvitku.

Društvena istraživanja : časopis za opća društvena pitanja, Dec 31, 2004

Primljeno: 24. 9. 2004. * Zahvaljujemo svim komentatorima radne verzije ovoga rada, a posebno Kat... more Primljeno: 24. 9. 2004. * Zahvaljujemo svim komentatorima radne verzije ovoga rada, a posebno Katarini Ott i @eljku Ivankovi}u. Odgovornost za napisanu rije~ ostaje, naravno, isklju~ivo na nama.

Privredna kretanja i ekonomska politika, May 15, 1994

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 1, 2000

Following the research by Laurence Boone and Mathilde Maurel (1998, 1999) on the monetary union o... more Following the research by Laurence Boone and Mathilde Maurel (1998, 1999) on the monetary union of the Central European countries with Germany and the European Union, scholarly curiosity has led us to investigate the relationship between the Croatian and German economies, as well as between the Croatian economy and the average European Union economy. Boone and Maurel (1999) concluded that the benefits of a common monetary policy for transition countries outweigh its costs. This paper determines the relationship between the Croatian and German economies and compares the Croatian economy with the economy of two advanced transition countries. The authors compared the economies by comparing business cycles illustrated by unemployment cycles in selected countries. Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter to detrend the time series of unemployment in Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia, the authors showed that there is a close correlation between cyclical unemployment fluctuations in all these countries and cyclical unemployment fluctuations in Germany. They also showed that there is a similarity between business cycles responses in three selected countries during the 24 months following the initial shock coming from the German economy and even more similarity between their responses to the shock during the first 12 months. The authors were cautious in drawing the conclusions that the results show that the selected countries are the optimum currency area as defined by Mundell. They warn about the possibility that cyclical coordination is endogenous, i.e. that it is the consequence of the implicit or explicit pegging of the exchange rates of advanced transition countries to the German mark exchange rate during a major part of the analyzed period (1992-1999). However, the importance of the results on cyclical coordination in considering the optimal exchange rate regime is not denied in this paper. The most important achievement of this research is that findings regarding Croatia, which showed a close convergence between Croatian and German unemployment, are added to the already known results on the close convergence of cyclical fluctuations in Central Europe.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Nov 28, 1998

Autori su u radu određivali relaciju Hrvatske prema njemačkom gospodarstvu i učinili usporedbu sa... more Autori su u radu određivali relaciju Hrvatske prema njemačkom gospodarstvu i učinili usporedbu sa dvjema naprednijim tranzicijskim zemljama u razdoblju 1992.-1999. Usporedba gospodarstva provedena je usporedbom poslovnih ciklusa predočenih ciklusom nezaposlenosti u Njemačkoj, Mađarskoj, Češkoj i Hrvatskoj. Tom svojom analizom pokazali su da postoji uska povezanost cikličkoga kretanja nezaposlenosti u sve tri zemlje s cikličkim kretanjima nezaposlenosti u Njemačkoj. Najvažniji domet tih istraživanja jest to što je već poznatim rezultatima o uskoj povezanosti cikličkih kretanja u Srednjoj Europi sada pridodan i nalaz za Hrvatsku.Following the researches done by Laurence Boone and Mathilde Maurel (1998, 1999) about monetary union of Central European countries with Germany or European Union, the research curiosity directed us to discovery of connections of Croatian and German economy, and the average of the European Union. Boone and Maurel (1999) concluded that the benefit of common mon...

Političke analize, Dec 15, 2014

Tema broja: Tri godine Milanovićeve vlade Na Praznik rada, 1. svibnja 2012. godine, Zoran Milanov... more Tema broja: Tri godine Milanovićeve vlade Na Praznik rada, 1. svibnja 2012. godine, Zoran Milanović dao je prvi radijski intervju kao premijer. Na pitanje voditelja Radija Rijeka, Roberta Ferlina, o rastu nezaposlenosti u Europskoj uniji i Hrvatskoj rekao je i ovo: "Nezaposlenost je, kao što vidite, ogromna u nekim državama, ali u nekima bogme nije. E, sad, to je sve Europska unija, dakle ima prostora i za uspješne i za manje uspješne. Hrvatsku vidim među definirano malima, ali uspješnima (...)" (HRT 2012). Dvije i pol godine kasnije, komentirajući prognoze Europske komisije za Hrvatsku 2014. o padu realnog BDP-a za 0,7 posto, premijer je izjavio: "Hrvatska živi u takvom okruženju anemične i slabe sjeverne Italije koja pada ekonomski, Njemačke koja stagnira i mi koji se držimo tu negdje, ali ne zadovoljava nas to. Prema tome, to je ono što mene zanima, a ne što je rekla Europska komisija, jer mi moramo donijeti proračun, a ne Europska komisija. " U intervjuu Goranu Rotimu u HTV-ovoj emisiji "Javna stvar" 21. studenog 2014. dodao je i sljedeće: "A što se tiče rasta, ta brojka ne ide u prilog skoro nikome u Europi (...). Brojke? Pitanje je statistike kako brojke tumačite (...)" (HRT 2014). Premijerova poruka s početka mandata relativizira vanjske čimbenike koji utječu na gospodarstvo. Europski okvir predstavlja kao priliku i naglašava da se uspješne zemlje dobrim politikama mogu ekonomski razvijati i u anemičnoj Uniji. U izjavama s kraja treće godine mandata europski okvir predstavlja kao bitno ograničenje (anemična i slaba Italija, stagnantna Njemačka). Uloga institucija EU-a prikazuje se u oprezno negativnom tonu, kao svojevrsna smetnja u procesu donošenja Velimir Šonje, vlasnik je tvrtke za poslovno savjetovanje Arhivanalitika.

n nt te er rn na at ti io on na al l C Ce en nt te er r f fo or r E Ec co on no om mi ic c G Gr r... more n nt te er rn na at ti io on na al l C Ce en nt te er r f fo or r E Ec co on no om mi ic c G Gr ro ow wt th h I I E Eu ur ro op pe ea an n C Ce en nt te er r VELIMIR SONJE:

On July 1, 2013, Croatia became the 28th member of the European Union. This achievement crowned m... more On July 1, 2013, Croatia became the 28th member of the European Union. This achievement crowned more than a decade of macroeconomic and institutional reforms by the Croatian authorities and other stakeholders that yielded important development results. Croatia's institutions are now stronger than a decade ago, reflecting broad and deep institutional adjustment that underpinned the pre-accession process and Croatia has become a high-income country within a decade. Yet the global economic crisis exposed Croatia's macroeconomic vulnerabilities. The report analyzes three inter-related issues needed to strengthen macroeconomic stability, and lay the foundation for a robust recovery. First, it analyzes major fiscal weaknesses, risks and alternative fiscal scenarios. Second, it analyzes institutional weaknesses and requirements for the efficient use of EU funds. And third, it analyzes the structure of Croatia's public finances and provides policy options for short term expendit...

Discussions about the role of deposit insurance within financial stability architecture neglected... more Discussions about the role of deposit insurance within financial stability architecture neglected an impact that the choice of deposit insurance fund's (DIF's) financial instruments may have on banks' incentives to take risks. This paper argues that DIF should borrow against a portion of its exposure which can be expected to recover in distress under reasonable assumptions. DIF should accumulate own funds (equity) only in proportion to expected loss in distress. Creating credit exposure of sound banks and/or other creditors towards deposit insurance institution will increase monitoring incentives. Also it may lead to creditors' demands to participate in a decision making process in a mixed deposit insurance system. This will help to align public and private incentives and increase likelihood of optimum pricing of deposit insurance. Application of this principle of financial management requires continuous risk assessment and stress testing on a bank by bank basis. Short time series and analytical difficulties should not discourage deposit insurers in SEE in applying these methods. Methods can be adjusted in order to be useful at a given level of development of their statistical and analytical systems. Therefore this paper is a plea for an early adoption of financial planning and modeling techniques in deposit insurance in SEE. Application of these techniques is a prerequisite for incentive compatible use of debt in deposit insurance funding.